TradingView Auto Chart Patterns - AMZN LULU GOOGL META NVDA I've been playing around with the auto chart patterns for a few weeks now and so far it's been pretty accurate. I think it's great to have an automated tool to help identify a lot of the common patterns I look for so I wanted to share. It also gives extra confirmation to my current bias. We'll see how these patterns end up playing out.
AMZ trade ideas
AMAZON LONG Trade Setup 15m TF - Sep 2, 2024AMAZON LONG Trade Setup
Amazon price crosses over the Risological dotted line at175.4 giving us a clear long trade entry.
Long entry: 175.4
Stoploss: 172.2
Targets for this short trade been marked on the chart for your reference and analysis.
Consider following me for more analysis and trade setups.
Amazon long Amazon found some support on the .618 level with a nice bounce towards the upside. Took the buy once it did closed the 4 hr candle on 172 level. Closing next week 9/3 week
$AMZN ONCE IN A LIFETIME Fibonacci Pyramid Long Term PlanNASDAQ:AMZN ONCE IN A LIFETIME
Fibonacci Pyramid Long Term Plan
Buys: 155.45 141.32 127 Target 210🎯
I loaded up on the FIBS this is a LOW RISK HIGH REWARD POTENTIAL!
I plan to LAYER OPTIONS and SHARES
Drop a LIKE if DOWN!
Amazon - Give me another -10%...NASDAQ:AMZN did not create a sustainable all time high yet and might head lower short term.
Click image above to see detailed analysis
Short term counter-trend moves are always very welcome because they allow you to enter trading opportunities within a major higher timeframe trend. After Amazon actually broke above the previous all time high but immediately closed back below, we knew that this was a false breakout. If we get a short term move lower, we might get another textbook trading opportunity.
Levels to watch: $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
AMZN: Buy ideaBuy idea on AMZN as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator by buyers.
AMZN Technical Chart ReviewWhen the AMZN daily chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue with the formation of the OBO Formation in the upward trend. As long as the AMZN price cannot pass the 191 level, it is evaluated that in price movements below the 178 level, it can break the 167 level and retreat to the 132 level.
AMZN longnot sure about short term but medium term looks great. lots of hidden and positive divergence. P/B is near 2009 lows double bottom. Loads of cash. This and Tesla look to be killer deals. Which one first though?
AMZN still not a buy hereAMZN I previously posted strong buy and $190 target, stock hit its head on that resistance hard, very weak, not a buy here will continue to monitor
Amazon.com May Be OverboughtAmazon.com has rebounded from a drop, but some traders may think the e-commerce giant will give back some of its recent gains.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $181.87 level. It was the low immediately before earnings came out and represented the approximate high last week. Has old support become new resistance?
Second, Wall Street wasn’t thrilled with the quarterly numbers. (Revenue and guidance were light.) AMZN had its biggest drop since April 2022 as a result. That could make some buyers wait for retests.
Next, stochastics are dipping from an overbought condition.
Fourth, this month’s low and last week’s high could be mapping out the early stages of a falling channel.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) could be getting stuck below the 21-day EMA. That’s a potentially bearish short-term trend signal.
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AMZN - BEARISH(CRPT FINANCE)Below, I will provide a very detailed analysis of AMZN using corporate finance
Discounted Cash Flow Models - "A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the value of an investment by predicting its future cash flows and adjusting those amounts to their present value using a discount rate. Essentially, it calculates how much future money is worth in today’s terms and sums it up to determine the current value of the investment."
Total Variance - "Total variance in finance reflects the overall risk of an investment, combining both systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk, which affects all investments due to market-wide factors, cannot be eliminated through diversification. Unsystematic risk, specific to individual investments or sectors, can be reduced by diversifying a portfolio."
I have applied various types of Cash Flow Models so to provide a very broad view as to where the price of AMZN will reside. I applied a DCF model using data that I believed should be altered, and one in which was barely altered. Below are my results:
DCF: 86.016(Firm Valuation), 67.40(Equity Valuation)
ECF: 86.016(Firm Valuation, 92.92(Equity Valuation)
Unaltered DCF: -366.23(Firm Valuation), 2.55(Equity Valuation)
Firm and Equity Valuation simply refer to how the figure is obtained. Firm refers to the valuation of the company as a whole, and equity refers to the value of equity alone.
An Excess Cash Flow model(ECF) differs in that it focuses solely on cash flows available to equity holders, whilst a DCF uses cash flows to represent the whole firm.
As you can see, the unaltered DCF represents very different valuations. A negative value and a very low equity valuation. The reason I believe this occurred was because the unaltered DCF used a lower Beta, different risk free rate, and the absolute Working Capital.
My data reflected a higher beta(higher movement aligned with the market), higher risk free rate(which should lower valuations), and I smoothed out the Working Capital. I noticed that in the year of 2022, (-8,602,000) AMZN's working capital was negative by a large margin. I assumed this may be an outlier and was potentially safe to manually alter the data so to reflect a data figure closer to the mean(7434000000).
Models will obviously hold bias to a degree, though if we are very conscious of such bias, I believe it is okay, as long as its within sound judgement. I believe such is the case because a higher beta and a higher risk free rate would only provide a larger discount rate allowing a fairly generous valuation.
Total Variance Model -
Covariance between stock and market returns: 0.00010
Variance of market returns: 0.00007
Beta: 1.53875
Variance of stock returns: 0.00043
Systematic Risk: 0.00016
Unsystematic Risk: 0.00027
Systematic Risk as a Percentage of Total Variance: 37.46%
Unsystematic Risk as a Percentage of Total Variance: 62.54%
Our systematic and unsystematic risk helps us understand the risk that we are exposed to.
Our risk is greater exposed to the companies business decisions(Unsystematic Risk %).
AMZN ShortNo one is even thinking about the idea, im sure the fundamentals look great but chart telling me it's time to trim my shares and possibly start shorting here.
AMZN - Weekly Bearish SignsNASDAQ:AMZN ’s recent price action suggests that the stock may be poised for a further decline. After reaching the top of the long-term channel, Amazon’s price has pulled back and is now facing renewed selling pressure. This technical setup aligns with broader market concerns, particularly in light of recent economic data.
The rise in unemployment claims and disappointing PMI data signal growing economic uncertainty, which could weigh on consumer spending and, by extension, Amazon’s revenue. As the market digests this data, the technical weakness in Amazon’s chart could be a precursor to a more significant downturn, especially if economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
AMZN - Gap fill here?If markets rebound here for a little, AMZN might give us a gap fill trade.
Long Entry - around 160 if there is pullback here
Target#1 176
Target#2 185, if the rebound continues
Stop Loss - 156
AMAZON Only a break above the 1D MA50 remains. $240 on sight.Amazon Inc. (AMZN) spent the previous 2 weeks on a very strong recovery of the losses sustained in July - August, in fact those have been the strongest 2-week candles since October 23 - 30 2023.
That was the previous bottom of the 2.5 year Channel Up on its Higher Lows trend-line. Even though the stock broke below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (May 2023), it managed to hold the long term Support of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As this 1W chart shows, the Higher Lows of this pattern are periodic and cyclical and you can see that clearly with the use of the Sine Waves (also evident on the 1W RSI, the green circle bottoms below its MA). Every time the price broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) following such a Low (3 times) it approached the top of the Channel Up.
The first Bullish Leg peaked at +79%, the second at +69%. If this is a progressive sequence, then the third (current) Bullish Leg could be -10% less than the last, i.e. +59%. As a result, the 1D MA50 (which applied high selling pressure this week), is the final Resistance and bullish break-out confirmation the price technically needs before it targets $240.00 (+59% rise).
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AMZN Short IdeaI went over this in last night's video as one of my 5 trade ideas for the week, but I guess I never posted the text version. Here it is, I expected a potential gap fill and fakeout above the trendline which is exactly what we got. Looking for a move back down to the 167 area for now.
Trading Amazon’s Negative GapNegative gaps leave lasting scars on price charts, often forming formidable resistance levels upon retest. As Amazon approaches the critical area formed by its August 2nd gap, let's explore two strategies for navigating this retest.
Understanding Amazon’s Negative Gap
On August 2nd, Amazon’s share price experienced a significant negative gap, opening over 12% lower than the previous close. This drop was driven by the company’s disappointing earnings report, which highlighted slowing online sales growth and increased competition from low-cost retailers like Temu and Shein. Despite strong results in Amazon Web Services (AWS), the market’s reaction was swift, as investors grew concerned over consumer trends and competitive pressures.
The negative gap left a distinct resistance zone on the chart, marked by the gap’s top, which now coincides with several key technical levels, including the VWAP anchored to July highs and a descending trendline connecting recent swing highs.
Amazon (AMZN) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
How to Trade Amazon's Negative Gap
Traders can approach Amazon’s negative gap with two distinct strategies, depending on their risk tolerance and trading style:
1. Aggressive Approach:
• Entry: Wait for the price to close the gap by reaching the resistance zone near the top of the gap.
• Confirmation: Look for bearish price patterns to form on lower timeframes, such as a small double top or a bearish engulfing pattern on the hourly chart.
• Stop Loss: Place the stop loss above the descending trendline and use a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR) to account for short-term volatility.
• Target: The target for this trade would be a retest of the August lows, capitalizing on the potential rejection from the resistance zone.
2. Less Aggressive Approach:
• Entry: Wait for a break and close below the ascending trendline that has formed during the recovery rally.
• Confirmation: This would signal the formation of a new lower swing high, indicating a potential reversal.
• Stop Loss: The stop loss can be placed above the newly formed swing high.
• Target: Similar to the aggressive approach, the target would be a retest of the August lows.
Conclusion
Navigating Amazon's negative gap requires a careful assessment of the price action that forms around the confluent resistance zone created by the gap. Whether opting for an aggressive entry near the gap top or a more cautious approach following a trendline break, understanding the technical landscape and implementing risk management is crucial in executing a well-informed trade.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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AMZN 8/19Current Observations:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, which generally indicates a bullish trend. The cloud appears to be rising, supporting further upside potential.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1 (R1): 174.73 appears to be a previous resistance level that has been surpassed, which may now act as support.
New Resistance Levels: Based on the chart, new resistance could form around 178.15 (current level) and possibly 180.
Stochastic RSI: The Stochastic RSI is approaching the overbought territory, which could indicate a potential pullback or consolidation before the next move.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
Entry Point: If AMZN consolidates and holds above the 174.73 support level, a potential entry could be around 175-176.
Target Exit: You could aim for a target around 180-182, considering the current momentum and resistance levels.
Bearish Scenario:
Entry Point: If the price drops below the 174.73 support level, consider waiting for a potential bounce before shorting. Enter around 174.
Target Exit: A potential exit target would be around 172 or even 170, depending on the strength of the downward move.
Conclusion:
Primary Trend: The trend is bullish as long as AMZN stays above the Ichimoku cloud.
Short-Term: Watch for a potential pullback due to the Stochastic RSI being in the overbought region. However, as long as support levels hold, the trend remains positive.
It’s crucial to watch the opening session and how the stock reacts around these levels before making any trading decisions. Adjust stop losses accordingly to manage risk.
