CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top DropNYSE:CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top Drop
This short biased thesis is based on the following factors:
A double top that was recently formed and confirmed
A Bearish Three Black Crows candle stick pattern followed the second top (of the double top)
A large series of dark pool prints totaling around $882M came in on June 25th, all around the $216.31 price level. Although we do not know the nature of this trade, we are currently trading under this level and continued downside price action will further increased the probability that this trade was a sell.
Possible Threats:
The $212.62 fib defined level may show support where price action may struggle or bounce from.
Short term tactical sentiment for XLI is starting to recover from a bearish downtrend and may show upward momentum from here that could lift CAT up enough to hit the Stop Loss.
That nature of the large dark pool trades are unknown and can only be inferred.
The June 29 Bar is being used to define the following trade parameters:
Short Entry: $214.58
Stop Loss: $218.71
Possible Targets:
$207 - First meaningful fib level
$200.17 - A previous trend high that was used as a fib definition point
$197 - Based on a fib level that has show to have acted as reasonable resistance and support
$190 - Based on the rounding to a whole number on the closest fib level
Other targets can be based on the fib levels show in the chart or by drawing support lines
This thesis/idea is just my opinion based on the information discussed within. None of it should be looked as a recommendation or as financial advice.
NYSE:CAT Daily Chart
NYSE:CAT Weekly Chart
CAT1 trade ideas
Caterpillar Is OversoldCaterpillar was one of the favorite value / cyclical plays coming out of 2020’s mini-depression. Now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average member just had its biggest pullback in a long time.
This chart highlights the deeply oversold condition on stochastics, which fell on Monday to their lowest level in over a year. CAT also just had its worst week (-9.6%) since the depths of the coronavirus crash in March 2020:
The main catalyst for the selloff appears to be the failure of a high-dollar bipartisan infrastructure bill in Congress. However, there were signs of trouble on the chart – especially the bearish divergence on MACD.
However now that a liquidation has occurred, bulls may like the chart. Aside from the oversold stochastics, CAT is holding the March 2021 low around $216. Will this level become support again?
Given the sharpness of the drop and the high volume, it may still be early in the process to jump into CAT. However, it remains one of the most important cyclicals / industrials in the market. Potential buyers may start getting interested – especially with a new quarter getting close.
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Another "buy the dip" trading idea! 😁Another “buy the dip” trade, just like our idea on DE. The principle is exactly the same, but with a few more details.
We have a rounded bottom, and the RSI is extremely divergent, indicating a possible rally.
In the 4h chart, the RSI is at 23, and we did break the BB today, but we closed inside it in the end. Like this wasn’t enough, we are above a support at 216 area.
A rally could make it hit the 231, but CAT must do the movement quickly, or it’ll lose momentum. It must not lose the 216 again, or it might keep dropping.
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See you soon,
Melissa.
Dead CAT bounce opportunity?CAT is in an obvious bear market and should head lower after breaking below the 100SMA. So it will continue to head lower. I believe this is was a sell the rumor on the Biden Infrastructure plan to shake out investors who jumped in.
I'm targeting the Fib retracement level at 209.12 for a buying opportunity. There is also support from the 150SMA on the daily. Indicators on the daily currently are going into oversold conditions and will watch for RSI bullish divergence. I'm looking at this as an ABC corrective wave with the rebound taking it back to 234. Could be a good swing trade.
A break below the 150 SMA would retrace it down to the 200SMA or the 2nd FIb retracement level at around 186.