CTO trade ideas
$COST Preps For Triple Top Breakout...Shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) and hammering on a triple top breakout. The level is $169 and if Costco can blow through that level, it has significant upside, maybe as high as $200. Don't jump the gun and buy Costco before it breaches the level as it may not breakout, instead collapsing lower. This is a possible breakout, not a breakout that has taken place. Check out the stock chart below.
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COSTCO just broke out, bullishCOST just broke out of a nice symmetrical triangle and that's what i was waiting like i said in my notes. If the stock go up tomorow morning around 164.18, i will be looking to buy the stock. When we see a nice breakout from a triangle like that with a strong candle and with strong volume that shows there is great buying pressure, this is why im looking to go long. There is a long resistance line and this is why i want the stock to move above to confirm the direction of the trend. My thoughts are that the stock will probably break that resistance and then will go up for a 2-3 days, after that the stock will retrace around 164 as resistance become support and then will bounce and keep moving higher close to new all time high.
A Little Far-fetched but Why Not?You can create a strategy around this if the roller-coaster keeps going, I just can't think of any earth-shaking revelations or headline risk that can derail the ride, trade safe!
COST: Buy out of the money calls for a monthWe have a pretty low risk trade here. You can look to buy way out of the money calls for dirt cheap after the earnings report for $COST. Upside is crystal clear. Even though this stock isn't such a good value pick, as say, $KSS (which has been nothing short of amazing so far), it's still a good contender to catch up to the retail rally it's been lagging.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Playing COST for an earnings popLots of stored upside energy in this one. I have already picked the long side for 'pot-odds'. A reversal and pop will pay off better than a continuation of the ABC correction
Costco COST update6 days ago I posted on a short trade on COST - Here is the update Target 1 hit. As we are in the blue zone now I will watch the price action carefully but would like to think the next target of 144.72 is achievable also. We'll see :)
Costco ( COST ) Timing & level very close. Another leg down?I like it when price recognises my predictive trend lines, drawn when the high was put in on August 15th. Even better when it has been acting as a resistance angle. The black dashed vertical line here represents time. It's not telling me direction but suggests that's when another bout of momentum should kick in when price reaches it. The blue box is where I would expect price to reach before COST can take a breather and then think about a move up from there. As price has not dipped to the blue box yet, I'd prefer a short stock or long PUT from this level with targets at the red horizontal lines.
COST needed to be revisited at this levelNeutral to bullish at these level. RSI 21.96, 8EMA 158.34 This chart is due for a relief rally
Overall industry breakdown makes COST a potential candidate for Overall industry breakdown makes COST a potential candidate for short. In the technical side it is rolling over from a double top and broke Upward trend. Money-flow is heading down. We think it can decline to 140 area.
You can check our detailed analysis on COST in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span: 18:00”
Trade Suggestion Date: Aug 26th
Trade Status: Pending/Watchlist
COST- Watching for a breakdown Short trade Overall industry breakdown makes COST a potential candidate for short. In the technical side it is rolling over from a double top and broke Upward trend. Money-flow is heading down. We think it can decline to 140 area.
You can check our detailed analysis on DNAI in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span: 18:00”
Trade Suggestion Date: Aug 26th
Trade Status: Pending/Watchlist
COST (COSTCO) NASDAQ:COST
05JUN16 - Entry criteria:
1. Short Position - If we get confirming bearish candlestick formations at the stop of the channel supporting by weak market performance over the week, potential to enter short and ride to $137.
2. Long Position - Potential to trade this long if a breakout forms out from the downward price channel and a base of support at $152.
COST - Elder Impulse system with Divergence- Weekly Elder Impulse system turn green from red
- Daily Elder Impulse system not red
- Divergence in both weekly & daily
- Enter @147.9 (close to low end of earning gap)
- SL @146.17 (below middle bollinger band)
- TP @152.68 (previous resistance)
COSTLooking for a break of the ascending price channel. A break below would leave the door open for a retest of the lows of 141.
THIS WEEK'S OPTIONS EARNINGS PLAYS -- COSTFor all practical purposes, this quarter's earnings season is all but over.
However, there is one last play I might do and that is in COST, which announces earnings on Tuesday after market close.
Currently, it's implied volatility rank is 58 and its implied volatility is 26. Generally speaking, I like to see the rank in the 70% percentile, and this isn't quite there, but this is one of those underlyings that just never gets that volatile -- its IV has been between 20 and 30 or so for the past 90 days.
I'll look to put on a play before NY market close on Tuesday, and I'll post a play (most likely an iron condor given the price of the underlying) some time during Tuesday's NY session.
Preliminarily, this looks like the approximate setup I'll use, although tweaking may be required as price moves on Monday and Tuesday:
March 11th 137/142/157.5/162.5
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $99/contract
Buying Power Effect: $401/contract
High spin wave DOJIAfter reporting a better than expected earning, price of Costco accelerate almost touching the channel top again.
One weekly chart, it finished as a high spin wave, essentially means that bulls & bears are equally puzzle where the price will go.
Immediately, the price might want to break the long term channel top (green), any false breakout that is rejected at the high will be my anticipated downtrend channel complete. Right now, the downtrend channel bottom seems to have found its direction.
I am waiting for the price to at least breakout high to initiate my short puts.
P.S. MACD show a weak sign of bearishness
Happy Mother's Day - A Look At Retail StocksHappy Mothers Day!! To all of you who give birth to our children, you deserve so much more than just one day a year...
Now don't take this wrong but when I think of the women in my life they all have one thing in common - Shopping! In the best way possible, they all love to shop or have accepted the shopping "chore" as I refer to it. Shopping is a HUGE chore in my opinion. Not one that I would like to take on as many women have.
Many teach the "invest in what you know & understand" lesson. Even if you are not the one out there shopping, you know where the important women in your life shop. Places like Costco, Macy's, Target, TJ Max, Ross, Kohls, Lulu Lemon, etc. Can I just say I LOVE yoga pants! Oops. Sorry. That was off topic... If women really like going there to shop, you may be looking at a good investment.
Pull up the charts for the stores I have listed above and any other store that you know is a frequent destination for the women in your life. My guess is you will find some good investing opportunities.
You are looking at a WEEKLY chart of Costco (Cost). Back in 2008 & 2009 the stock was in a downtrend. But once there was a weekly close above the downtrend line back in early 2009, the stock never looked back. You could have entered a long position at around $45 per share six years ago. On average you could have made about 41% per year since then.
In August of 2010 the buying picked up. You can see the beginning of UT 2. And that uptrend line lasted until the middle of 2014. At that point is where UT 3 began. The stock is currently way above UT 3 and coming down. It may stop at the first of second horizontal lines. It may drop to UT 3. Or it could drop to UT 2. No one really knows.
The one thing I will tell you is when there is a weekly close above the red DT line, you should look at buying again. I would say you have a high probability, at that point, of doing just fine. Why not buy now? Well mostly because the stock is following a downtrend line at the moment.
There is one other thing I would like to point out. If you plot the 8, 21, 50, 100, 150, and 200 exponential moving averages you will see that they are stacked in the proper order. Just like they should be for a long investment.
If you have a company you want me to chart for you just ask me in the comments section of this idea. Have a great day!
Technical Level to watch on CostcoI'll just stick to the technicals on this one. So its really quite simple after breaking above 140/141 resistance price continued on to the -1.27 Extension of the 132 / 141 Range it was consolidating within. So I'll be looking for evidence of bidders re-entering the stock at the retracement to previous resistance turned support at 140 / 141. In equities I am a strong believer in averaging into positions taking some profits along the way for income but leaving the bulk of positions running until the marathon has exhausted itself, so if I enter long I'll be taking some initial profit off the table at 145.70 and leaving the rest to run. If price breaks above 145.70 i'll be managing the stops as we go and waiting for price to break above 153.10 to average in a tad bit more and taking some profit off the table once again. Repeating the process over and over.
Note: I do monitor the options trading taking place in equities for clues of institutional buying / selling, so it's just a tool I think would be helpful to equity traders.. especially with earnings 22 days away.
Other scenario: Price breaks support and heads to retest minor support at 135.00 or 132.50, in which I'll have to re-evaluate the plan to the current action.
