1 year later. Still holding the trend?After a very good correction by more than $100, we returned to the trend again. If the trend is broken, the last support will be around $100. Buy @ $115-120, TP $170-200-220, SL $105.
E0P trade ideas
ENPH - Correction is doneENPH next quarter's revenue (2021 Q2) is expected to grow 156%. The stock has done a 3 month correction over 50%. 6/10/2021 MACD crossed up 0. 6/17/2021 price broke up 3C $153 with volume increase. But, volume is not enough to break up pivot $173. If the stock pull back near 20 wma will be a good change to buy. I expect the stock will challenge previous high around $222 in 2021.
$ENPH (log chart) great buy opportunitySo far $ENPH has maintained its weekly breakout in the midst of a choppy/weak market. For me, weak markets expose the out-performers that go on to lead stocks into new uptrends. Currently $ENPH looks a lot more like the beginning of something than the end. Of course, this is a positive indicator for the whole solar sector and growth stocks as well.
Bullish- long playENPH has gotten relatively beaten down and taken a much-needed pullback. However, has held up fairly well amidst all of the intraday volatility in the markets and is now is back above its 200day SMA where it has previously found support. Needs to hold above the 200day SMA. Additionally, does look like a fishhook pattern forming, and am looking for ENPH to fill the gap circa 153-167. Bullish
PT1- $152.99
PT2- $169.10
big breakout coming to ENPH?answers yes if top trendline breaks!ENPH bounced off its longterm uptrend line and now its trying to break out of its downtrend channel! watching closely here, if its breaks my first price target is 170, second pt 200 for a swing trade! RSI still has some nice upside too.
Fish Hook Pattern ENPHLong on ENPH, if it can break through the trend line it can go to $175. Bullish MACD momentum on the daily chart.
It looks like there is a gap to fill from 153-167 as well.
$ENPH sitting at around fair price.I did a 20 year DCF analysis of $ENPH. Assuming a slowly declining revenue growth from 25% in 2021 and a solid 25% FCF margin. In my opinion, $16B is a fair price.
I will add a small amount. and will add more if we drop.
ENPH Fish Hook PatternFish Hook on ENPH, been bullish on this stock for quite some time now, just been waiting on a good entry for May 21st/June Swings.
ENPHBuy the dip? 1hr RSI oversold + Bull Div + Good earnings. Chip shorted caused by gap down but if you analyze it demand in green energy is kicking. Chip maker will not let the big buyer disappoint.
ENPH (Enphase Energy) - Bullish quarter aheadEnphase Energy, Inc. delivers microinverter technology for the solar industry, which increases productivity and reliability of solar modules. The Company builds a semiconductor-based microinverter system that converts direct current electricity to alternating current electricity at the individual solar module level. Enphase sells its microinverter systems primarily to distributors who resell them to solar installers. It also sells directly to installers, as well as through original equipment manufacturers. Enphase Energy, Inc. is headquartered in Petaluma, California.
Analysis/Commentary
Strong EPS and Sales Growth Y-on-Y
Based on the study of the previous quarterly earnings reports and subsequent price moves:
- Expectation for the price to move to LOW or MID point
- Trailing stop-loss on price above LOW point
- Bullish Heiken Ashi Candles confirm entry is close on 4hr
- Fast MACD close to cross on 4hr
We are very bullish on this stock, and see a strong uptrend, particularly if LOW TARGET reached.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE & COMMENT - We answer all comments.
GOOD LUCK.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!
Green energy Currently watching This is ready to pop ,sitting around 6 month lows.Def a risky bet but i see it paying off 160-170 calls looking good but volume is missing .I might just sit this one out .Market isnt the same it used to be last year around Nov .Too many people busy tryna buy what elon is posting .No hate everyone catches their fish differently .
ENPH, REVERSAL COMING!Hello fellow traders and investors, here's another trade idea.
ENPH has recently pulled back to the bottom of the consolidation zone and will most likely head to go to 172$ which is a 20% ROI and they also will most likely return to all-time highs which would offer a 50% ROI.
Technicals:
The Macd indicates that it's oversold
The RSI indicates that it's relatively oversold
The volume indicates that the selling volume is getting exhausted so we will most likely see a reversal coming.
When To Buy:
Now
When To Sell:
Wherever you feel more comfortable either at 172$ or 215$.
Fundamentals: Enphase Energy engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of microinverter systems for the solar photovoltaic industry. They have a P/E of 160, a P/S of 24, a debt/equity of 0.68, sales growth Q/Q of 26%, an EPS growth Q/Q of -43% and a profit margin of 17%.
Rating: 80/100 the technicals look amazing but their valuation is quite expensive so they deserve a 80/100.
I hope you enjoyed this quick analysis and many more to come.
If you enjoyed please leave a like, follow, comment your thoughts and share this trade idea.
Thanks.
ENPH AnalysisBullish Long-Term on ENPH, they just beat earnings by 20.75% and it recently took a beating over the last couple days.
Looking for a long term entry opportunity for May/June Calls. I think this one will run very soon, it could go as high as $204-$212.
$ENPH Bullish Earnings PlayI trade almost entirely using options, shares are typically only there to hedge Greeks or if a stock has a terrific opportunity to sell covered calls. When you are trading in options you need to understand that while technical analysis and fundamental analysis are still important, what is usually most important is how the options chain looks-- what is the Implied Volatility curve, the skew/smile, and etc. This is primarily why Earnings present such an incredible opportunity because people throw money all over the place betting on some kind of move, and usually over pay. So note that this play is less about Enphase Energy as the company or what support/resistance levels I see and etc, its more of a "This is a killer value" option spread.
Background
Enphase is a solar energy stock. Solar stocks and electric vehicle (EV) stocks as well as some others have been really beat up recently but I've been seeing a ton of reversals which lead me to believe another "trash flash" rally has just begun. Looking at $IWM or $US2000 you can see a wedge or sort of diamond top has broken through to the upside.
Technical
My bottom pane has my Price Action Index indicator, which shows a breakout to the bull side already underway on this stock. You can see that on the Bollinger Band as well-- it was squeezed in consolidation and now the band is expanding in size as the stock hovers above the top band.
Options Analysis
There are some levels of resistance above that I think this stock can go through pretty easily until it gets to that $190-$210 cloud. This is so obvious that options traders have attacked OTM calls for near-term expirations pretty aggressively. Here is a (crude) diagram of the $ENPH smile graph for this Friday’s expiration--
This smile is called a “forward skew”. Note that it is INSANELY weighted towards the bullish side. Options traders are pricing in the potential for a giant move up. Therefore, we try to exploit it . As this near-term 4/30 expiration has priced in OTM calls very expensively, the next expiry afterwards, 5/7 has about 20% lower IV At The Money, and OTM we’re looking at about 25% less IV. It looks like this:
$200 Call for 4/30 has an IV midpoint of 120
$195 Call for 5/7 has an IV midpoint of 90
This spread is affectionally dubbed the “Poor Man’s Covered Call” but it is simply a Diagonal Call. It is somewhat similar to being long shares, however I want to limit my risk to the downside and not get stuck holding shares for a long time.
If it does backfire by a lot then that means my long calls will go worthless
If the stock doesn’t move at all from earnings, I make the decision of: rolling my short calls to my long date (5/7), buying to close the short calls after they’ve been IV Crushed and hoping for some upside to come later, or taking a small loss (say $200-400)
If it goes mildly up, I make a mild profit
If it hits $200 there and expires at that price, I take my maximum profit: my choice of closing the spread then, holding my long call (I would probably roll another short one against it)
If ENPH does some insane move over 3 standard deviations into the moon, say $240, I still make profit but that short $200 call digs at it (I have more extrinsic/time value with my option being 1 week further to expiry than the short one does)
What is really nice about this setup is you have ALL of the Greeks working with you! I am positive Delta, very positive Theta , a smidge positive Gamma, positive Vega, and even positive Rho (not that that matters much here).
Past Earnings
What I love about this earnings play is that of the past 12 earnings reports Enphase has had, only 2 have had a move to the downside . The other 10 have all been positive-- +1.0%, +4.2%, +8.8%, +9.5%. +9.5%, +14.0%, +18.7%, +29.3%, +30%, and +42.4%. A move up to $220 is not out of this realm of possibility. But all I am looking for is a move up that is at least 2.0% or so. And the beautiful thing is that the Average Move of the last 12 earnings comes out to +/- 16.6%, which would be about $201.
Trade Entry
I got my spread filled at a $1.98 debit. I put my walk limit order in and started working on this idea and got filled there. I am plenty fine with that fill but if you are patient the Bid-Ask spread is currently $1.72-$2.33 with a mid of $2.03. From my personal experience, getting filled can be a tedious process because I want the best possible price but I also hate being too cheap and watching a good trade pass me by. In the end a nickel or dime difference on the fill is not the killer, it is the trade not working.
Best of luck. Let me know if you have any thoughts or ideas or are playing this as well. EARNINGS ARE TOMORROW/TUESDAY AFTER MARKET CLOSE!
Please remember that this is NOT financial advise and I have no certifications or qualifications to give financial advise.
$ENPH upon request Ideally you want to see a break of Fridays high, with volume, stop below low, (Daily inside bar) this will test down trendline, If my $TAN set up goes very likely this does, i noted the gap above %618 eventually that should fill so just keep note.
Triangle pattern on ENPH Stock. Buy on Support!ENPH seems making a good triangle pattern, buy on Support Target 176$, or buy on breakout target 184$ or you can adjust so it can fit with your investment risk profile. Happy investing
Disclaimer on
Enphase Energy Inc is bouncing HARD$ENPH (Enphase Energy Inc.) is bouncing hard from a previous level tested several times.
Target Price: 199
Expected returns: 25%
Bullish on ENPH(This is not financial advice)
Hey guys quick energy play on Enphase here. Energy was the biggest winner of this week as I expected and ENPH is one of the biggest companies in this area. ENPH did have a nice run up this week running up over 4% gain from week open to week close but I still see good room for growth. ENPH came out of bullish triangle and is now using old resistance as new support. With the Fib Retracement we have our next price target at 176 completing our W pattern that has been forming as well. If the energy sector continues to boost it could easily push past this as well but otherwise you could just take your profits earlier. This trade will allow for at least a 8% gain and in my opinion even more. All of these things combined with the RSI the EMA's and all other things allow me to be pretty bullish on ENPH.
If you agree or disagree with his idea be sure to let me know in the comments and like and follow.
Thanks!
- Vlaire
