Salesforce (CRM): Solid Fundamentals and Technical AnalysisSoftware as a Service (SaaS) is at the center of attention due to the Coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19).
Today, I’ll be analyzing the #1 firm in the Customer Relationship Management industry, Salesforce (CRM).
- Salesforce is an extremely quickly growing business, whose founder was an ex-Oracle (ORCL) employee.
- They currently employ the tallest building in San Francisco
- Salesforce was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and became the first Saas company to be listed on the S&P500 index.
What is CRM?
- CRM stands for Customer Relationship Management.
- It’s essentially a software that allows salespeople to manage client info data
- CRM, fundamentally, is a tool to drag new clients, maintain loyal customers, and increase customer value
- Prior to Salesforce, companies such as Oracle (ORCL) and IBM (IBM) had to sell hardware, and the software license of the hardware, which all had tremendous installation costs.
- As a result, CRM was selectively used by few major corporations
- Salesforce revolutionized the marked by making CRM more approachable
- They offered CRM through cloud computing, and became the first company to sell software through cloud computing systems. As such, Salesforce managed to offer CRM at a price 90% cheaper than the original cost
- CRM is effectively used to provide data for artificial intelligence, and machine learning protocols, and is much more closely related to our lives than we know, from a marketing aspect.
Financials
- Despite having been in business for over 22 years, Salesforce shows a 29% yoy revenue growth-
- This is due to their multi-cloud strategy in which they aggressively acquire other software companies
- They reached a record quarterly revenue of $5.15 billion in Q2 2020
- This was mainly due to the explosive demand for work.com, a product that was developed for the Coronavirus pandemic situation.
- For the third quarter, Salesforce speculated a revenue of $5.24 billion, which is a 16% increase compared to last year.
- The company’s free cash flow increased by 22% in Q2, compared to that of last year, and is estimated to generate $35 billion in 2020.
- Salesforces’ Price-to-sales multiple remained at 8-10, indicating that it is relatively undervalued compared to its software counterpart, Adobe.
Business Model
- Salesforce is well known for its aggressive acquisition of cloud related companies.
- By offering marketing, commerce tools, and service cloud to existing Sales Cloud clients, they gather more meaningful data and expand potential client bases
- Over 40% of users use multiple clouds, and these people are responsible for 93% of the company’s revenue.
- Salesforce offers Service Cloud, which is a service that helps customer support and operations management.
- By acquiring Exact Target in 2013, Salesforce has been expanding its marketing cloud base.
- The marketing automatization that Exact Target has, allows Salesforce to incorporate cloud computing to emails, social media, messages, and digital apps
- By doing this, they can accurately track the efficiency of marketing campaigns, and optimize advertisements
- What’s most important to notice about Salesforces’ business model is that just like many other successful businesses, it has managed to establish a cloud ecosystem
- Their AppExchange offers optimized CRM tool kits, and institutional level software
- Salesforce also runs the Lightning Platform, which allows users to develop software that is optimized for their specific industry and business
- Salesforce acquired MuleSoft, a data compiling company, and Tableu, a data analytics company, and this synergy is expected to generate exponential gains in the coming years.
- In essence, Salesforce is capitalizing on an opportunity, during times of a digital turning point, by compiling data and software on a single platform
Technical Analysis
- CRM is currently moving in a clear uptrend, forming higher lows
- It has recently topped out after having been listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), but shows strong support in critical areas
- We are at a point where prices are testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement support
- This zone of support is about to converge with the 60 Simple Moving Average (SMA) as well
- The Relative Strength Index is moving towards to the oversold territory, having been at extremely overbought levels at the local top
Conclusion
Salesforce (CRM) is the dominant #1 in the CRM industry. Just as many other successful companies, it possesses a healthy ecosystem, specifically of cloud computing. Fundamentally, it has all the right components of a successful business model, and while the earnings are not as high as we would expect, due to mergers and acquisitions, their profitability can increase significantly over the coming years. Technical analysis also demonstrates a clear uptrend, and a potential buy opportunity.
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FOO trade ideas
CRM made a huge gain last earnings and something to watchI have an alert set at 252.32 or about the 200 DMA. Crosses over and confirms it will likely to have a good move coming into earnings.
1-Month High 270.16
266.83 Price Crosses 18 Day Moving Average Stalls
265.35 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 80%
262.95 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 70%
262.53 3-10-16 Day MACD Moving Average Stalls
258.15 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 50%
256.86 Price Crosses 18 Day Moving Average
256.21 38.2% Retracement From 4 Week High
256.17 14 Day %d Stochastic Stalls
255.44 Price Crosses 9 Day Moving Average
253.60 Price Crosses 40 Day Moving Average
253.34 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 30%
Pivot Point 2nd Level Resistance 253.06
252.63 14 Day %k Stochastic Stalls
252.23 14 Day RSI at 50%
251.90 50% Retracement From 4 Week High/Low
Pivot Point 1st Resistance Point 251.79
251.32 Price Crosses 9 Day Moving Average Stalls
250.94 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 20%
High 250.57 High
Covering Short position #crm
Real-Time Algorithmic Trading Signals. Stay curious
Markov Model : In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions.
Our model focuses on the current wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement.
SalesForce Looking HeavySalesForce looks like an ideal short right now because of the ridiculous rally it made at the end of August. The stock rallied $80/share, which translates to a market cap increase larger than the entire NFL. Crazy, right? When you read the reason for the earning surprise below, it's even crazier.
As Reported By Salesforce:
"Second quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share was $2.85...Mark-to-market accounting of the company's strategic investments, required by ASU 2016-01, benefited GAAP diluted earnings per share by $0.55 based on a U.S. tax rate of 25% and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share by $0.58 based on a non-GAAP tax rate of 22%. GAAP diluted earnings per share was also benefited by $2.17 as the company changed its international corporate structure, which included the consolidation of intangible property, resulting in a $2 billion net tax benefit related to foreign deferred tax assets."
I'm all for bullish optimism by default, however this stock rallied dangerously with no clear support level below the run-up. Its kinda hanging in no-man's land right now with no fundamental reason to support that level (P/E ratio is currently 95, astronomical). I expect a retest of the lows, followed by once of the shown scenarios. If the stock does break through the lows, then I expect the stock to range downwards to $200 hitting various fibonacci levels as resistance/support on the way down.
Welcome to Tech Bubble 2.0!
Expecting Bullish Price Action on CRM- CRM appears ready to break upwards out of a Bollinger Band squeeze . The same bullish price action occurred when it reported Q2 earnings in late August.
- The Commodity Channel Index , a measure of the current price level relative to the 20-day average price level, has moved above +200. This indicating a strong uptrend is beginning.
- A bullish MACD crossover is also about to occur, signalling a shift in momentum to the upside.
- The RSI indicates CRM is not yet overbought (RSI<70).
- Furthermore, the stock is trading above its 20, 50, and 200 moving averages .