HAR trade ideas
long - hogI think hog could slingshot back here earnings beat posted nr7 on expanding lower bb at support level previous gaps heighten my interest as it gapped up making new 52 week highs testing historical monthly resistance before the 50ma gap break down before earnings. swing points don't look messy we could make new highs again above $64 with buy signal on oversold stochastic and only $1-2 max draw-down
longStock bounced at a very strong support line.
The candle of today was very strong as you can.
The stock also bounced at the 200 MA so that brings more strength to the bouce.
The stock was very strong on the bearish side last friday and yesterday it also showed some strength on the bearish side so before today the bears had complete control and power over the bulls.
Today, the stock finally did a good bounce and as you can see the bulls have now the control and i think we are going to see the stock continue to move higher because after a strong down move like that and because the stock stopped at a very strong support line, we are going to see a lot of sellers who took or will took their profits so i think there is potential.
Short Position in HOG This morning as I was running through my trend following screener, I found Harley Davidson. What I saw was not good. After reporting an extremely disappointing earnings seasons, HOG started its downfall yesterday. It's interesting because for the first time I'm shorting a company that emotionally I like. This is a good learning lesson. It is helping me remove emotions completely from my trading, and I like that. On the weekly chart, this weeks candlestick bar is trending lower than the 200 MA.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some pullback from this selloff, however the earnings are indeed that badly, and on a macro perspective, I have a feeling many companies will fall the way of HOG in terms of earnings reports, but that is for a longer idea back on my website.
I entered at 55.80 and put a stop at 56. Yes its super tight, but due to my emotions before the trade, I wanted to trim my stops and I only used 0.5% of my trading capital on this trade. Trying to learn when to pare back due to emotions before the trade.
All the best,
RC
HOG- Upward channel breakdown short from $55 to $45, 55 Aug put HOG was running within an upward channel formation, which broken just recently. We think with the falling oil price it will decline further. According to Upward channel breakdown we got target or $45.33. To play this we would consider $55 Aug-17 puts
* Trade Criteria *
Date first found- April 20, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown, Falling Oil price
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $55.87
Exit Target Criteria- $45.33
Stop Loss Criteria- $60.13
Option- $55 Aug-17 Puts
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
HARLEY DAVIDSON ...on support strong uptrend ...
buy after nice trigger for example a big bullish candle on daily or lower time frame
Taking a ride with Harley Davidson...warm in ST Thomas VISince I am still in vacation, taking a ride with Harley is worth a chance..
HOG - Upward channel breakdown trade from $53.33 to $40 area. HOG was our presidential pick. It declined nicely from our entry of $62.13 and now in profit taking zone.
Now we are looking for a second opportunity here if it break below the upward channel. And we think it can go all the way down to $40 area.
To play this we would consider $55 May-17 puts, currently trading for $2.90/3.10
* Trade Criteria *
Date first found- February 2, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $53.33
Exit Target Criteria- $40
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Option: $55 May-17 Puts @ $3.10
(Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
Have a break?Since my former view Harley made ~ 20%. Now the Chart has reached the upper edge of the uptrend and started to consolidate. At present Harley is forming a bearish H&S. Only Prices above the right shoulder will brighten the Chart.
Former view:
EMA 90 crossed EMA 200 +Trendbreak=Long?
Got Long in Weekly Strategies 1/19 (Yesterday)For those of you who don't subscribe to Weekly Strategies or GreatwizeOZ texting service, we published a buy of the HOG 2/60 calls on Sunday night @ $1.46 OB. It took until yesterday for us to buy them on a gap down @ $1.39. They traded as low as $1.32 this morning and are now $1.78, but $1.82 Bid. Stock is oversold and even if it doesn't break topside thru $60, these should trade $2.50-$3.20....OZ
EMA 90 crossed EMA 200 + Trendbreak = Long?If Harley is not reentering the downtrend again a longterm buying-Signal is active. TP is the former Top @ 74$
HOG: Weekly View Suggests Consolidation, Then UptrendMaryJane published a chart for-HOG. She peaked my curiosity because I live about 7 miles from the Harley plant in Milwaukee, WI.
The stock has slowly been improving. It is currently at the 50% retracement after its decline from $74.
On a monthly chart HOG-is 2/3 of the way through completing a "saucer buy signal" via the phase energy.
With this (monthly) indicator heading upwards, please note that the weekly indicators have already gone positive.
Positives On Weekly Chart :
All four indicators above the chart (from top down are RSI / Stochastic, Vortex, Coppock Curve, Phase Energy) are positive (strong).
The most recent fractal is a buy (up green arrows).
Note: A buy fractal (green arrow) is a series of five consecutive bars where the highest high is preceded by two lower highs and is followed by two lower highs.
The alligator is feeding in an uptrend.
The 89 Week EMA is heading higher. The prices are trading above the Ichimoku Cloud.
The Coppock Curve and Vortex formations today mirror early May 2016 when HOG-was $44, today it is above $53 and the phase energy is strongly above zero.
(This is called a positive divergence).
Negatives On Weekly Chart :
HOG-is at a 50% retracement from $74. RSI / Stochastic is over-bought, and Coppock Curve is over-bought.
Conclusion : HOG is in the early phases of a new bullish trend. It will likely move sideways until the over-bought condition is consolidated.
Then I feel the bullish trend will continue.
I will close with a joke : How do you spot the guy from Milwaukee in a car wash? He’s the one on the-Harley.
Thanks to MaryJane for her chart. I had trouble doing this chart because I wanted to drive over to Harley-and get one!
Good luck to you on all your trades. Don.
TRADE IDEA: HOG SEPT 16TH 42.5/57.5 SHORT STRANGLEAin't much decent premium out there ... . HOG announces in 2 days, but I'm really just doing this as a longer-term premium selling play (hence, the Sept expiry), since there isn't jack diddly in the market of late.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 72%
Max Profit: 1.38/contract ($138)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/$501
Break Evens: 41.12/58.88
Notes: Filled for a 1.38 almost immediately. You can naturally go in closer in time (Aug expiry) to take advantage of the vol crush post earnings, but you'll have to tweak the short option strikes to get them in toward the 85% probability out-of-the-money strikes for the Aug 19th expiry. It's tough to get them right at 85% or thereabouts, which is another reason why I went out farther in time ... .
Doble Fondo Accion HOGPatrón doble fondo HOG velas de 4h, hay que esperar si se cumple el patrón para entrar en largo en posicion
SCT with 50DMA loss suggest $40 is achievableYou can make all excuses for your trade plan in order to get what you want to but as the old saying "You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right." The sector is weak, and only gets weaker so will all companies that sector or industry. Recent $HOG faced the hard wall to crack n noted that price will reverse from there, now the question is will it hold next major support $44.50 level..it's more unlikely but try and have your stop loss very tight $47.5 area or even $49 recent swing high with target price $40. Try us www.2waytrading.com
Short the HOG$HOG looks a little under the weather, could be time for a tune up
markets looking to go lower and $HOG seems to want to follow them,
Time for your oil change
Shorts in favor
the market is fluid.
Could Spike due to low gas prices but i see it going lower in the overall long term.
