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HDI trade ideas

Follow-up analysis $HD positionNYSE:HD One thing I do different about this specific option strategy is the trade analysis that I do for trade management. This would determine if I exit early at half of the debit or see it to expiration and risk full loss. Initial trade set up triggered entry 04/21 Debit Put Spread $300/325 14 May 21 expiry. Price needs to be below $325 at expiration for this trade. Since Price is showing weakness and overextension. Holding this spread 'til expiration.
NYSE:HDShort
by EllaineEscueta
HD Long William Alligator : the stock is currently in a bullish position because the candlesticks are above the Teeth, Lips and Jaw and the lines are “eating with an open mouth” this indicates that the stock is in a strong uptrend. RSI : the line is under 70, so the stock is not overbought. Candlestick patterns : there is a bearish engulfing which is a bearish confirmation. Overall : it can be interesting to take a buy position on this stock because the indicators indicate that the price is increasing. Entry price is higher than the current price for assurance and stop loss is set at -5%.
NYSE:HDLong
by lena_vf
Will Home Depot Decline Before Summer?I am writing this analysis a little after the triggering signal as I watched the stock move up. The red and green boxes still indicate targeted movements (as detailed in prior analysis and below), however, I have looked for potentially stronger entry points for put options. As I previously mention, the stock may continue to move up in contradiction of the reversing signal, but this continued movement is limited. This continued movement based on median statistics (the black dotted arrow) had the stock move upward for an additional 3 days to 327.21. The 3 days was spot on, and so was the peak. The actual peak (assuming the stock continues to move down from this point) was 328.83. Ideally, the stock is finally obeying the reversal signal from April 14, 2021. The peak occurred in line with historical movement by occurring in the smaller red box. Based on historical movement, the peak could have occurred anywhere in the larger red box. The next targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the case on the prior 373 occasions. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. 84.45% of the 373 historical signals have seen the stock price drop at least 1.03% below the closing price on the signal bar. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on April 14, 2021 with a closing price of 320.02. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should drop to at least 316.71 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock drop 3.05% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock drop 6.366% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock drop 11.189% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would lead to a drop to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the drop can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max drop occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% drop must occur over the next 35 trading bars (days) in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 4 trading bars; half occur within 14 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 26 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play). All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
NYSE:HDShort
by StockSignaler
1
Home Depot should be in your WatchListThere is a macro narrative underway that is wildly bullish for Home Depot. The fuse being lit here under a MASSIVE bull run evident within the latest WSJ article. Get ready for a flood of improvements and investments in homes. Keep in mind how cash flush consumers are, and how pent up they have been in their homes. The WSJ certainly made the case when they said: "The estimate represents a 52% rise in the nation’s home shortage compared with 2018, the first time Freddie Mac quantified the shortfall." “We should have almost four million more housing units if we had kept up with demand the last few years,” Mr. Khater said. “This is what you get when you underbuild for 10 years.” Housing my friends is about to get red red hot. www.wsj.com Let's also take a peek at flatbed capacity folks. Flatbeds provide capacity for the construction sector and massive commodities within the logistics sector. New truck sales are up ...gulp 424% in march! www.ttnews.com Demand is wild, but who are going to drive all of these trucks with a driver shortage underway at exactly the same time? Load postings (loads shippers need transported) are up +129.9% Y/Y Truck postings (trucks available to haul loads) -6.9% Y/Y -Stats provided by DAT Let's drill in a bit further folks! This upcoming ratio is a bit like saying... the average temperature in North America is 70.7 degrees Fahrenheit, or 21.5 degrees Celsius for our friends across the pond. Not very helpful if you are trying to zero in to the Florida market vs the Alaska market. But regardless this data is stunning as the current load-to-truck ratio for flatbed is over 80 loads per trucks. In some very hot markets it is well over 120 loads per truck. Think about what that means! The average driver has over 80 loads to select from before hauling his freight. This enables him to bid himself much higher. Obviously this cost to manufacturers and distributors or even those providing raw goods in lowlier verticals all can not just shoulder this costs - it must get passed on to consumers. Clearly this will result in further inflation pressure. It is stunning if you think of it that Dr Michael Burry predicted that the inflation pressures would be observed initially within supply chains...and yes he nailed it. Citation of chart displaying Load-to-truck ratio: www.facebook.com There are many ways to monetize the current situation. And I recommend a plethora of strategies to diversify risk. And this includes exposure to transportation equity products, building materials, commodities, construction starts, and yes Home Depot. The final comment I have - and please keep in mind I do not subscribe to political tribalism, I play it monk like focused on how we can be opportunistic in any environment-if Biden passes the infrastructure package again this would lead to a massive supply crunch in many of the areas outlined above. Especially flatbed capacity. Keep in mind flatbed seasonality typically does not kick up until May-June when housing and construction starts are heating up. As always dear traders if you found this content helpful please be sure to like, share, and perhaps tell me what I may be missing in my content here. Final content share that is a MUST READ. Manufacturing PMI is at 64.7% ... So for those unfamiliar with what that means if the PMI index is under 50 we are in a state of contraction, growth mode is evident with numbers above 50. A reading of 64.7% is frankly remarkable. www.ismworld.org Pivot Points Bollingers/EMA/Volume Can you see the trend friends? Home Depot is great as well because keep in mind on days equities sold off in the broader market, they continued to march higher as well. Let the roaring 20's commence! And please be sure to follow me on TradingView as I will let you know any helpful content I can find as we navigate through the rest of this decade. Good fortunes to you dear traders!
NYSE:HDLong
by ZenMode
2