KHNZ trade ideas
KHC - IF 3 HOUR 34 SMA CAN BOUNCE OFF 500 HULL - IT'S GO TIME!!!KHC - IF 3 HOUR 34 SMA CAN BOUNCE OFF 500 HULL - IT'S GO TIME!!!
KHC Worth at least 34 week SMA or $40.00/share hereKHC Worth at least 34 week SMA or $40.00/share here
Buffett Made a Mistake That Cost Him $4.3 Billion This YearEven the best investors have bad days.
Warren Buffett is no exception. In February, he watched one of his biggest acquisitions quickly sour.
I’m talking about Kraft Heinz, an American food giant that makes everything from ketchup to Oscar Mayer hot dogs to Kool-Aid.
The stock plunged 30% in one day after it announced a 36% dividend cut and never recovered.
This caught a lot of investors by surprise. That’s because Kraft Heinz fit Buffett’s signature strategy, known as value investing, to a T.
Buffett has used this strategy to make billions of dollars. So people expected Kraft Heinz to be safe.
But the writing was on the wall well before February. Here, I’ll explain why—and how to avoid stocks with similar problems.
But first, let’s look at how Buffett got into this jam…
There’s Always Money for a Coke
Value investors like Buffett make money buying stocks that are trading for less than their intrinsic value.
Imagine, for example, that a stock is trading for $20 per share. But your research says it’s worth $25 per share. If you’re correct, and the share price rises, you make a profit.
That’s how value investing works in a nutshell.
This strategy is one of the reasons Buffett acquired an 27% stake in Kraft Heinz in 2015. It also matched his preference for easy-to-understand companies like Coca-Cola and Duracell.
In theory, people buy their products no matter what’s happening in the economy. There’s always money for a Coke, a pack of batteries, or a hot dog, even when you’re broke.
No One Drinks Kool-Aid Anymore
On the surface, Kraft Heinz looked like a stable company with a safe dividend. Finding such companies is my forte, so check out my latest special report where I reveal my favorite dividend stocks for 2019. But if you looked deeper, you’d see the company is actually dealing with many issues.
The biggest issue is that Kraft Heinz doesn’t keep up with changing consumer trends.
People don’t want prepackaged foods like Oscar Mayer hot dogs anymore. Instead, they want simpler, healthier foods with fewer processed ingredients.
This has weakened demand for the company’s core products. (When was the last time you saw someone drinking Kool-Aid?)
In fact, the company’s sales flatlined from 2015 to 2018. Earnings rose slightly, but this came from cutting costs, not growing sales. Still, Kraft Heinz kept raising its dividend.
This was a major red flag.
How to Spot an At-Risk Dividend
When a company’s dividend rises faster than its earnings, it increases a closely watched indicator called the payout ratio.
The payout ratio is the percentage of net income a company pays to shareholders as dividends. The lower the payout ratio, the safer the dividend payment.
In Kraft Heinz’s case, the payout ratio has been rising for three years. Over that period, it has averaged 94%. That means the company immediately paid out almost every dollar it made.
Again, this is a major red flag. If a company pays out all of its profits in dividends, there’s nothing left over to reinvest in the business.
With Kraft Heinz, sales were already struggling. Add in the rising payout ratio, and more investors should have been wary.
Instead, they were hypnotized by Buffett’s blessing and the company’s (former) 5.5% dividend yield.
Then the inevitable payday came. February’s big dividend cut sent shares down 30% in one day. This cost Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway a paper loss of over $4.3 billion.
Kraft Heinz co. Investment opportunity or bad business Is Kraft Heinz co a investment of a lifetime or a death sentence? Warren Buffett bought 26.70 percent of the company at 72 dollars a share. He openly stated he was wrong about Kraft in a couple different ways. Kraft Heinz co is 30.1 billion in dept and only worth 39.1 billion they make around 6 billion a year and currently coming out with a new line of kraft baby food. How much revenue is that going to bring? I don't think kraft will go out of business however I do think it will be several years to make a turn around. That is my prediction what's your thoughts please share you knowledge on the subject.
Kraft Huge Upside Move ComingCrypto Crusader here with another blue chip analysis
This one is fairly self explanatory,
We can see that KHC has taken a huge beating over the previous two years. From all time highs (ATH) KHC has fallen around 65% placing it in an extremely oversold situation. To preface the remainder of this technical analysis, Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) purchased nearly 30% of the company around $72.5, just to put in perspective how large this downside leg truly is. $33~ is a bargain if I have ever seen one.
The channels on the actual candles look amazing, along with the MACD and RSI backing up that price action in a positive manner.
MACD is moving towards the positive side, and creating a green tick compared to the perpetual red ticks that have been occurring for a while now. The recent convergence of the MACD is a great indicator in itself, but mirrored with other action from RSI creates a stronger argument towards the imminent move of an upward channel.
RSI levels created an all time low around March of 2018, however, at the same time higher lows have been put into place with the massive selloff around Feb of 2019. This divergence in RSI levels along with the previous action on MACD and the overall sentiment of the stock is creating a massive storm. All of these factors mixed with that fact that they replaced their CEO with the "Wizard of Marketing" are incredible catalysts to prepare KHC for a massive move.
Sell target $40 +- 3%
Happy trading,
Crypto Crusader
KHC: Not giving up on this name just yetThis is a weekly chart and lookup at the broader picture. This is chugging along nicely now and Thirt Six is in sight by upcoming er. I can call it a "Date with 36".
how low can you go !!!as you can see Kraft has been going down for a long time. but for the last 2 month's it's been forming a massive bear flag on the weekly chart and it looks like it's getting ready to break down big time. so if you're not going to short at least get out of the way.
Kraft Heinz, CO (KHC)(NASDAQ) Sell $32.01 >>> Target $31.49Kraft Heinz
The Kraft Heinz Company manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. The last earnings update was 41 days ago.
Stock - NASDAQ (USA)
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Sell Stop Limit (Sell) - $32.01
Take Profit (Buy Limit) - $31.49
Stop Loss (Buy Stop)- $33.01
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Take Profit = +1.62%
Stop Loss = -3.12%
HEINZ is going to move up! It seems to me , that the selling pressure in this share is over.
I think there are two possibilities of moving up:
1. Pure move, from this position to 41-42$
2. Testing buyers via pinbar (31.80-32.30$) (and also taking volume in position with the help of activating stoplosses of weak traders)
Anyway - i suppose, that new price range is 31.80$-41.44$ for the next 3-4-5 monthes. Critical points ( 31.82$ and 41.44$ ) are strong enough to provide new zones of support and resistance.
KHC - Big ComebackI was watching KHC since it hit news streams with eyes opening 25% drop opening waiting for it to show some strength. I believe daily chart and weekly as well finally giving us a signals to go long or even invest into Kraft Heinz Company longer term. We can see on a chart stopping volume on a gap opening day. RSI divergence on daily and RSI going above 30 today. A broadening formation is forming at the bottom. It might have last leg down, so better approach is to divide position amount into several entries (as usual) and scale in based on price action.
TP1 is gap down bottom line at $36.
TP2 is gap close if happened. It is huge gain from here so this TP2 will be refined later as we go. Let's just keep it in mind.
Manage your money properly and Good Luck!
Kraft Heinz CO (KHC) - After bear flag long move potencialAlmost everyone has noticed the bad news about the KHC, which is owned by the legendary investor Warren Buffet. The fundamental analysis could still point to further weakness, but the technical analysis might be a bit more optimistic.
We can see some nice patterns on the shorter timeframes (1H-4H). After the big drop, a consolidation triangle had formed, which was broken to the downside, thus the bearish trend was confirmed. Currently, there is a bearish flag, so I guess the price could go a bit lower and test the green area. There is still the possibility of a double bottom, but there is also a chance for a smaller rally from these levels.
The green area should be a very strong S/R area, because of the1.27 Fibo -> this could mean a mid-term bottom has formed here.
There is also the RSI bullish divergence and the so-called Bullish Three Drivers pattern. Plus, the market is Oversold
BUY AREA - GREEN ZONE
TP and SL will be revealed after the trade is active.
It could be a good technical trade with a solid RRR. BUT, we have to keep in mind that the poor fundamental situation of this company could trump the technical analysis. This stock has some problems but it is still a great company with more than 200 brands.
Long KHC/KraftKraft did something stupid in the previous years, which was reducing their marketing. they though their brand was strong enough but as you can see. it started to take a hit.
They been beaten down a lot but I am confident that they can turn this company around. Especially when your a company that Warren Buffett has stake in. They are going to use their analytics and help this company get back on track.
They just had a dividend cut too, which was needed to adjust to the share price of this stock.
The chart is showing a reversal so I am going to take a stake now, with a super tight stoploss, if anything, i'll visit this stock again later on because if we get a recession, people are going to stop stop paying expensive prices for organic stuff and going back to regular.
Buy $32
Sell $35.99
Stoploss 31.75
Busting Buffett. FAKEOUT before a BREAKOUT?*I follow the portfolio of Warren Buffett. I think he is brilliant and he claims to think Kraft Heinz is brilliant. Based on the graphing alone I suspect we are about to see a market fake out. All Indicators look almost perfectly aligned for a break, a few premature bulls take their position and then... TITS UP. Before I get accused of being unprofessional, the term TITS UP actually derives from the behaviour of aeroplanes' altitude indicators, which turn upside down when faulty and display an inverted 'W' resembling a pair of breasts.
I cant claim i know enough about KHC to make a valid case so I refer the argument by Ian Croci
Busting Buffett - Is Kraft Heinz Actually A Wonderful Business?
In a recent interview on CNBC, Warren Buffett made the claim that Kraft-Heinz is a "wonderful" business, pointing to its return on tangible assets.
In and of itself, return on tangible assets is an interesting metric, but doesn't actually mean a whole lot.
I'll be exploring the context of how KHC's return on tangible assets is likely to impact the bottom line moving into the future.
To begin, I would like to say that I agree, at least on a philosophical level, with legendary investor Warren Buffett almost all of the time. However, I find myself strategically at odds with him more often than not. I've got plenty of ideas as to why this might be, not least of which is the sheer volume of capital he's responsible for working with. In this article, I'll be questioning a specific comment he made about Kraft-Heinz (KHC) shortly after the company posted its tragic earnings results on February 21st.
seekingalpha.com
Kraft Heinz - buy if blood is in the streets (Warren B) The American food company Kraft Heinz Company will reduce the quarterly dividend from 62.5 US cents per share to 40 US cents. The next payment will be made on March 22, 2019 (Record day: March 8, 2019). Extrapolated to the year Kraft pays so in the future $ 1.60 per share.
For fiscal 2018, the company generated $ 26.26 billion in revenue, compared to $ 26.1 billion a year ago, as reported on Thursday. The bottom line was a loss of $ 10.3 billion after a gain of nearly $ 11 billion a year earlier. There was a write-off of $ 16 billion on the value of many brands.
The group also announced last Thursday that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating accounting practice. After the announcement of the news the stock was on Wall Street over 20 percent in loss. The value is one of the largest holdings in Warren Buffetts portfolio.
Buy this, take sleeping pills and be happy with your ROI in 2-3 years :)
For short term holders is take profit at 30,50 € for long term holders is at 38 and 45 €
KHC: Oscar Meyer LoserKHC is having a rough week. The news broke on Friday that they had to write down $15b in acquisitions from brands including Oscar Meyer. With a market cap of $58, any investor should be alarmed when a company writes down a quarter of their valuation! The largest holders of KHC are Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital, so anyone that followed Buffet into an earlier long play is likely kicking themselves.
This morning opened with a small upward price movement that appears to be the short squeeze from anyone holding short overnight through the weekend. The price is still dropping and will likely continue as investors who had their stop limits gapped over will be adjusting their orders top get out soon. Expect a dead cat to bounce a few times, but be certain that this is going down and wise investors will not try to catch a falling knife until the downward price action settles into a bottom and an upward trend shakes loose from the volatile swing trading to come.
Technicals are supporting this. MACD and ADX/DI flipping from bullish to strongly bearish instantly. RSI went from 58 to 15 in one trading session, and volume is spiking along with short interest. There may be a buying opportunity at the end of this once the price bottoms out, but don't try to catch this falling knife unless you want to get cut.
