McDonald's shareholders will soon be McDonald's employeesHello friends.
If you are a McDonald's shareholder, you will want to make a choice. You can either sell, or start flipping burgers. You could also do both.
We are going to buy out of the money puts expiring in around a month on Mcdonald's as soon as the market opens on Monday.
Its forward P/E ratio is at 25 while the SPX is something like 14 and still overvalued even then. I think most of the downside left for this market is actually in these big overhyped names, and much of the losses are already behind bargain bin stocks trading for much fairer prices. Mcdonald’s will always trade at a premium due to their powerful brand and massive size, but it’s really silly to expect a P/E ratio that is literally giving a worse yield than risk-free government bonds for a company that has its best days behind it and sees very minimal growth.
To extrapolate on what I mean about the yield of MCD, you can take 100 over the P/E ratio of 25.5 and you will find that Mcdonald's essentially offers 3.9% of the money you put into the stock as fresh earnings each year. Instead of doing that, you could literally buy the United States 1 year bonds and receive a yield of 4.6% per year. Plus you would have a lot less downside risk on the bonds – Mcdonald's can crash at this high price, but bonds have already crashed and are unlikely to fall by much more.
Another thing I’ve noticed is that Mcdonald’s is starting to have to pay its employees more due to the shortage of labor. This will hurt their profits for a while, up until we see the unemployment start to spike.
The bulls will be taking my order shortly.
MDO trade ideas
Mikkey D's like a rock. MCDFlat formation. Some visible divergences. Anyway, looking more appealing than fast food.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
MCD - Going against the trend
McDonald's has been showing more bullish price action than the S&P500 Index (shown in orange) since May.
My primary scenario is an ending diagonal, which would take us to now all time highs soon. Any small pump in the stock market should do the trick.
I'll watch price action after a test of the gray ascending trendline support.
McDonald's MCD - I'm Lovin' Selling, and You Should be tooYou don't see just how highly priced McDonald's still is unless you look at it on the Monthly:
I mean, this is the place that sells faux-food while CPI and PPI are through the roof, and it's still trading almost at its all time high. This is even more ridiculous than the positioning of Apple AAPL:
Apple AAPL - Looks Fine on the Outside, but Tastes Weird
And Tesla TSLA:
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine
On top of that, this is one of the thirty companies that compose the Dow, which is the most bearish of all indexes, having already retested the pre-COVID highs, which SPX and Nasdaq have yet to do.
The bottom line for everyone's least favourite, but most convenient, fast food dumpster fire is that the June --> August price action, was, like Apple, just a gap fill.
And now, it's time to seek new lows. And those lows happen to be, conservatively, in the $245 range.
This is a fat put if you buy puts, but a "my calls expired worthless so at least I can sob about my drawdown on Reddit" scenario for Robinhood's retail fodder.
I can only encourage everyone who is still long on equities to get out this week. I truly believe that we are going to see a bounce that traps bears short but snares bulls long:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
With a looming VIX 72 (hasn't done much since COVID! It's two years! It's due! Be careful!) hanging overhead.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
What lies ahead, after the trap has been executed, will come fast, and viciously, and it will seem as if the world is ending. If you buy when it's high because you are still thinking to yourself that this is the old paradigm, you're going to lose at least one finger, and probably three.
This world is not one where you can use magic to regrow what's lost, you know?
And so what I want to say is that you should protect what you have. If you can't get short, if you can't trade puts, then get cash heavy and reduce your risk.
Ultimately, what's important in life is not money, which when you die you leave behind. It is maintaining your kindness. It is harbouring your virtue.
This isn't moral dogma, unless you make it moral dogma. The path through the storm is to do better in your life. Been neglecting family? Fix it.
Been a bad father? Fix it.
Been a bad boss? Buy the secretary flowers and tell her that she's doing a great job. Make sure you mean it. You aren't such a bad guy. Make sure you mean it. Try your best.
One day, in this lifetime, when the Chinese Communist Party falls, you'll instantly understand what I am referring to.
Don't leave yourself with regrets on that day. That day is too late. You have to figure it out and do well before that day.
It's just like poker, where you have to place your bets before the cards are face up. It doesn't count anymore after the cards are face up.
Mc Donalds. Popular, resilient but overvaluedI’m developing an app using Tradingview data for my stock picking and fundamental analysis.
I get financial data from Tradingview into excel file, producing aggregated statistics and fair value calculation based on estimate of future earnings and discounted free cash flows.
Continuing my search in the best sectors, undervalued stocks that could perform well in the next time. In uncertain times, americans stick with fast food. This stock is popular, resilient, but still overvalued based on my algorithms.
My estimate of fair value is $201 based on forecast earnings and $166 based on forecast discounted free cash flows.
Just I set an alert on the next volume cluster for my reminder
hedge grid systemHow the hedge grid system strategy works in stocks?h
first you choose 2 companies from the same sector
in the chart the above company is Starbucks
the below chart is Mc donalds
Second you wait for the right time depending on your indicator or Technical analyses
in our case I used volume , plus a personal indicator that I have created .
at the green arrow
I will buy Mac Donald and sell short Starbucks same size
at the red arrow I will take profit from Mc Donald
and again I will buy Mac Donald and sell short Starbucks same size
at the Cup I will Close all trades and celebrates
7/4/22 MCDMcDonalds Corporation ( NYSE:MCD )
Sector: Consumer Services (Restaurants)
Market Capitalization: $187.076B
Current Price: $252.96
Breakout price: $252.96
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $248.35-$238.25
Price Target: $258.00-$260.50 (1st), $270.00-$275.60 (2nd), $302.60-$308.20 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-22d (1st), 54-61d (2nd), 150-159d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $MCD 8/19/22 270c, $MCD 9/16/22 270c, $MCD 12/16/22 280c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.60/contract, $3.60/contract, $4.75/contract
Memes still overvalued, potential for a correctionHello friends. We have put together a Meme Index which captures the general price movements of assets which are considered for one reason or another to be memes. It includes household names like Gamestop, Doge, AMC, and a few others. What we can see is that memes retraced by as much as 75% of their value from the peak, but are nowhere near done. We think that the fair value of the memes, based on the MTV (Meme To Value) ratio, is between $1 and $2. There could be great buying opportunities in several years time on these memes, which could be ridden for the next hype-cycle ahead. However, just like with the dot com bubble, many of these memes will cease to be funny, and eventually go to zero. Only a few highly funny memes will make it to the next hype cycle.
Thanks for playing.
Parabolic Run Examples (Log Vs Non Log)Examples of Parabolic runs - McDonald's and Pepsi
Mcdonalds is on a Logarithmic chart while Pepsi is on a normal chart
As you can see on the Log chart McDonalds shows consistent growth, it is in a very bullish state and will likely stay this way for a long time
The parabolic move is more evident on Pepsi (non log) showing the parabolic curve
I see these patterns across many large cap stocks, it is hard to get creative on them as they only have one clear uptrend to plot.
Regardless it is a very bullish state and a great buy.
The glitter indicator shows the green periods of growth massively outweigh the downside periods.