8R NIO8R Trade on NIO
35% chance of success.
Good opportunity to take profits at the conservative target and then can also target 9.58 as secondary more ambitious take profit
N3IA trade ideas
I may not open a Short Trade in my life!This would be shocking news for most of my followers since we made decent money doing that in 2021-2022, but let me explain the mathematics behind it.
Before diving into the mathematics, let me tell you I will buy a Naked Put if there is a high conviction for an asset's future lower price.
Let me explain the risk-reward profiles for long and short positions:
Long Position:
When you buy an asset (go long), you purchase it hoping its value will increase
Maximum loss: Limited to your initial investment (if asset goes to $0)
For example, if you buy a stock at $100, your maximum loss is $100 per share
Maximum gain: Theoretically unlimited, as the asset's price can keep rising
If the stock goes to $200, $300, $1000+, your profit keeps growing
Short Position:
When you short an asset, you borrow and sell it, hoping to repurchase it cheaper later
Maximum gain: Limited to your initial sale price (if the asset goes to $0)
For example, if you short a stock at $100, your maximum gain is $100 per share
Maximum loss: Theoretically unlimited, as the asset's price can keep rising
If the stock rises to $200, you lose $100; at $300, you lose $200, and so on
The asymmetric risk-reward comes from math:
Long positions: Asset can't go below $0, but has no upper limit
Short positions: Can only profit until $0, but losses grow with each price increase
Shorting comes with several additional costs that make it more expensive than going long:
Borrowing Costs (Short Interest)
You must pay interest to borrow the shares you're shorting
Rates can range from very low (0.25%) to very high (50%+) annually for hard-to-borrow stocks
This cost reduces your profits or increases losses over time
Margin Requirements
Need to maintain a margin account with collateral
Higher margin requirements for short positions (typically 150% of position value)
Risk of margin calls if the position moves against you
Dividend Payments
Short sellers must pay any dividends to the lender of the shares
This is an additional cost that long position holders don't face
Can significantly impact profitability for high-dividend stocks
Stock Recall Risk
The lender can recall their shares at any time
This may force you to close your position at unfavorable prices
It is particularly risky during short squeezes
These costs mean that even if your directional view is correct, you might still lose money on a short position due to holding costs.
Asymmetrical Moves
"Markets take the stairs up but the elevator down"
The opposite happens more often!
During bubble collapses and market crashes:
Downside moves can be gradual as denial, hope, and orderly selling create a stepped decline
Some investors average down, providing temporary support
Circuit breakers and trading halts can slow dramatic falls
During upside rallies, especially short squeezes:
Price can explode upward very rapidly as shorts rush to cover
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) creates buying panic
Margin calls force immediate buying
Limited available shares can cause bidding wars
Historical Examples:
GameStop (GME) in 2021: Rose from ~$20 to $483 in just a few weeks
Volkswagen in 2008: Briefly became the world's most valuable company during a squeeze
Tesla's multiple rallies in 2020: Several sharp upward moves that hurt short sellers
This faster upward movement makes short positions particularly dangerous because:
Less time to react to adverse moves
Higher likelihood of getting caught in a short squeeze
Margin calls can come suddenly with little time to add funds.
A most recent example: is RGTI my best Idea on the platform got 16x in less than 100 days!
NIO LONGNIO in the final phase of Wyckoff accumulation -> from here we should breakout of the upper line 6.05~ and from there we will see how it will behave.
target 6.05 $
SL 4$
my SL is tight, so i am in 50% from my original size.
$NIO yieahhhAnother Chinese company. They are all beat down
can they get beat down further? - yes
can it sink down? - yes
am I scared? - yieaahh
will I still go in? - yieahhh
1. Awesome R/R
2. Came down on a clear A-B-C
3. Monthly MACD trending green
4. Monthly RSI on a triangle, as soon as this breaks we will see a direction and will be fast, should be soon as we approach apex.
5. Monthly RSI, I like it right now touching the SMA and hopeful that it will use it as a trampolin
6. Weekly RSI not on this idea, seems to have broken up and is now coming down to retest the broken trendline, which I like
7. Hopeful to see a catalyst to send us to $9 quick which ison the next volume shelf, 23% retracement fib from previous high to low, close to the SMA. A lot of confluence here.
Be safe out there, this name is vol-a-tile-yieahhh
#NIO - USA - so exciting opportunity ,#NIO time frame 1 DAY
Created bullish Gartley pattern , in addition there is anther bullish Gartley pattern will be done if prices reached to stop loss of the first pattern ( so exciting ) .
First bullish Gartley pattern as follow :
Entry level 4.14 to 3.90 ,
Stop loss 3.65 ( estimated loss -12.36% ),
First target at 5.25 ( estimated profit around 26.40% ),
Second target 6.17 ( estimated profit around 48% ),
Third target 6.84 ( estimated profit around 64% ),
Second bullish Gartley pattern is assumption ,it's not done yet . pattern in yellow
So if prices reached to 3.65 ( stop loss of first Gartley pattern ) the numbers will be as follow :
Entry level 3.65 ,
Stop loss 3.20 ( estimated loss -12% ),
First target at 4.31 ( estimated profit around 19% ),
Second target 4.71 ( estimated profit around 29.85% ),
Third target 5.00 ( estimated profit around 37% ),
IN ADDETION , if prices didn't close under 3.65 the fist bullish Gartley pattern still Active !!
There is positive diversion on MACD , that may support our idea .
NOTE : this data according to time frame I DAY.
Its not an advice for investing only my vision according to the data on chart
Please consult your account manager before investing.
Thanks and good luck.
$NIO - $2.43 Price Target with BEAR FLAGThere is a major bear flag setting up, go short at the break of the flag for price objective target of around $2.43.
NIO Long Undervalued by 58% (Fundamentals + Technicals)Tgt; 16.63
Partial Take profit; 10.92 Intrinsic Value
Wall street target: 6.774
Target Price (Tgt): $16.63
Partial Take Profit: $10.92
Intrinsic Value: $6.774 (Wall Street target)
Global Trend
Governments are prioritizing green energy initiatives, and NIO, as an electric car manufacturer, is a key competitor to Tesla. The mentality for 2025 in Europe and America is increasingly shifting toward green energy solutions.
News
The official launch of the Firefly model is expected in April 2025.
Info:
In the bustling heart of China's innovation hub, the city of Shanghai, NIO Inc. emerged in 2014 as one of the frontrunners in the electric vehicle revolution. This startup, with an eye on revolutionizing the transportation industry, quickly established itself as a formidable competitor to electric vehicle giants like Tesla. NIO's primary focus is on designing, manufacturing, and selling smart electric vehicles that blend cutting-edge technology with luxury aesthetics, appealing to a growing demographic of environmentally conscious consumers eager for sustainable mobility solutions. At its core, NIO operates through the design and production of electric vehicles (EVs) that emphasize technological integration and user experience. Its vehicles are equipped with advanced features such as NIO Pilot—an autonomous driving system, and NOMI—an artificial intelligence-powered in-car assistant.
Q4 2024 data
72k vehicles delivered. increasing by 45% year over year
Vehicle margin in the third quarter of 20024 was 13,1% compared with 11% in the third quarter of 2023 and 12,2% in the second quarter of 2024
Revenue: 24% 3year CAGR
Solvency score: 31
Net income expected to increase
Net Margin -33%
Technicals
The stock is at a Global Point of Control (POC), indicating a strong price area with significant accumulation.
The Local POC is at the $4.50 price level.
The daily timeframe shows a falling parallel channel, typically bearish, but in this case, it appears bullish.
There is strong resistance at higher levels.
NIO Wedge BreakHey y'all I'm back from hiatus. Had a kid so that took up a lot of my energy. Anyway, NIO looking to break the downward resistance it's been in since October. Looking good. Targets: $7-8
NIO Price Prediction and Analysis on Weekly TimeframeThe weekly chart shows a clear falling wedge, a historically bullish reversal pattern.
The price is approaching the apex of this wedge, testing strong resistance and support levels repeatedly.
Past interactions with the trendlines resulted in rejections; however, this time, the setup appears different due to a few key factors:
Higher High Formation: At ~$7.7, the formation of a higher high signals a change of character in the trend.
Strong Demand Zone: The $4.3 level shows persistent buying interest, preventing further downside.
Historical Parallels to 2020:
In 2020, a similar scenario unfolded: bond yields hit record lows, the price traded below the 50-day moving average (50MA), and the market was in a phase of depression.
Once the price broke above the 50MA on the weekly chart, it surged significantly.
Current conditions mirror this setup, as the price remains under the 50MA, and CN10Y yields have hit a bottom, signaling a potential reversal.
Fundamental Analysis
Guidance Beating Expectations:
NYSE:NIO is outperforming market expectations with robust Q4 guidance:
Minimum revenue projection for Q4 with an average selling price (ASP) of $35k is ~$2.84 billion, beating consensus estimates.
Key catalysts include the ET9 and Firefly models, which are gaining traction and showing strong market performance.
Investor Sentiment and Activity:
Buy-the-Dip Behavior: Investors are increasingly holding and accumulating during dips, as evidenced by the robust support at $4.3.
Despite perceived market manipulation, buying activity suggests growing confidence among long-term holders.
Macro Factors:
Expectations of easing tensions between China and the U.S., potentially accelerated by a change in U.S. leadership in January 2025.
Historical parallels suggest a rally when bond yields reverse, with the CN10Y already showing signs of bottoming.
Market Psychology
Sentiment is divided but leans bullish:
Long-term investors demonstrate resilience and confidence, continuing to hold and accumulate.
Short-term skepticism persists but may dissipate as technicals align with positive fundamentals.
Price Targets
Short-Term Target (March 2025): $9 to $10.
Mid-to-Long-Term Target (End of 2025): $20, assuming macro conditions improve and technical breakouts materialize.
Key Notes:
The confluence of a falling wedge breakout, 50MA reclaim, and bond yield reversal signals a potential price surge.
Positive developments in earnings, vehicle performance, and geopolitical stability could act as catalysts.
This is an environment reminiscent of 2020, suggesting a strong bullish potential
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
$NIO LongNYSE:NIO is breaking out of this channel that has been forming since late September. This is an add position for me and I am in with about 3% of my account. I will continue to add on the next signals as always.
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO):\Analyzing the Critical ZonesNIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO):\Analyzing the Critical Zones
NIO Inc. has been in a prolonged downtrend, as evident from the chart forming a descending channel with multiple lower highs and lower lows. The current price structure highlights potential continuation patterns and critical levels to watch. Let’s delve deeper into the technical setup and price action.
Technical Breakdown
Descending Channel: NIO’s price has been steadily declining within a well-established descending channel, marked by consistent resistance at the upper boundary and support at the lower boundary. The channel suggests continued bearish sentiment unless a significant breakout occurs.
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: $4.66 | The chart displays a descending triangle, typically a bearish continuation pattern. The price is currently facing a confluence of resistance from a descending triangle pattern.
Target 1 (Support): $3.74 | This is a key support level, aligning with the lower range of the descending channel and a previous demand zone.
Target 2 (Support): $2.51 | A deeper downside target if the $3.74 support fails, marking the next significant area where buyers may step in.
Upside Target: $5.90 | If bullish momentum picks up, this would be a key resistance aligned with the descending channel's upper boundary.
Scenarios to Watch
Bearish Case: A breakdown below $4.30 would likely confirm the descending triangle’s bearish bias. This could lead to a swift move toward $3.74 (Target 1) and, in the worst case, to $2.51 (Target 2).
Bullish Case: A breakout above $4.90 would invalidate the descending triangle and suggest a reversal toward $5.90. A confirmed breakout would require strong volume and sustained momentum.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a professional before making investment decisions.
NIONio here looks to me like when i bought palantir at 6,29$ .
Everybody hating & crying .
Fundamentals are there
- big pile of cash
- undervalued stock
- better tech thn competition
- turning point in profitability / delivery
* also when i see an EV use blackberry QNX i get excited
-> this chart is purely for a visual . NFA
It's Finally Time for NIO to Shine: Bullish Trade Setup AheadNIO Trade Setup 🚗📈
Take Profit 1: $5.00 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
Take Profit 2: $5.42 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
Take Profit 3: $5.77 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
Take Profit 4: $6.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
Take Profit 5: $6.58 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement)
Stop Loss: $4.10 (Below the support zone and the lowest Fibonacci retracement level)
Reasoning and Fundamental Analysis 📊
NIO is experiencing strong growth in the electric vehicle (EV) sector , making this trade setup especially promising. In December 2024, NIO delivered a record 31,138 vehicles , marking a 72.87% increase from the same month last year. Additionally, NIO's Q4 2024 deliveries of 72,689 vehicles exceeded expectations , showcasing the company’s solid growth trajectory.
Key factors supporting this growth include:
A diverse lineup of high-performance vehicles, such as the ES6, ES8, ET5 , and the upcoming ET9 model launching in March 2025.
Onvo's L60 model, which has gained traction and is expected to ramp up production to 20,000 units per month by March 2025.
The launch of Firefly, NIO's third brand focused on compact cars, with the first model beginning deliveries in April 2025 in China and expanding to Europe.
NIO’s Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model , which allows users to swap batteries at stations, continues to grow rapidly. The company is set to open its 3,000th battery swap station in China soon , enhancing its competitive edge in the EV space.
With plans to double its 2024 deliveries of 221,970 vehicles in 2025 , NIO is strategically positioned to capitalize on the booming EV market. This bullish outlook is the foundation for our trade, where the Fibonacci retracement levels serve as key targets for profit-taking as the stock moves upward. The stop loss is set below the key support zone, offering protection against sudden reversals.
Good luck with the trade! 🚀
A clear sign for bullish momentumFourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Delivery Update:
Company Achieved New Record-High Monthly and Quarterly Deliveries :
* 31,138 vehicles were delivered in December 2024, increasing by 72.9% year-over-year
* 72,689 vehicles were delivered in the three months ended December 2024, increasing by 45.2% year-over-year
* 221,970 vehicles were delivered in 2024 in total, increasing by 38.7% year-over-year
* Cumulative deliveries reached 671,564 as of December 31, 2024
Bullish for me!
China EV Market Weekly Update (W52) In the final week of December, NIO delivered 6,500 units, marking a 20% increase compared to the previous week and 14% YoY growth. For December, NIO's total registrations reached 20,000 units, with the ES6 (EL6 in Europe) and ET5 models dominating sales. Additionally, Onvo, NIO's sub-brand, registered 4,200 units of its L60 SUV (+101% WoW), contributing to a December total of 9,405 units.
Key insights:
Tesla posted 18,600 registrations (+6% WoW). Model Y remains the top seller, but Model 3 is gaining traction.
BYD led the market with 72,100 registrations, though this was down 18% WoW and 6% YoY.
Xpeng and Zeekr hit record numbers, with 10,100 and 8,900 registrations, respectively.
📈 Despite mixed signals across the EV sector, NIO’s growth is a promising indicator of its resilience in a competitive market. The rise in Onvo’s L60 SUV registrations further highlights potential in NIO's multi-brand strategy.
I'm back in the game. I sold my entire position at 7.47 on September 30, and people thought I was crazy. Anyway, I recently bought back around 4.55. This stock is playing yo-yo with our nerves, haha.
Next target? Early March 2025 (Fibonacci time extension) for a gain between +25% and +45%. Good luck to everyone!
sorry for all the drawings, this is my personal chart.
NIO always bearish on this companyNIO has multiple failure fake break up.
Eventually it will goes to 1 dollar or even lesser under this NIO CEO managing.
Creating more brands, create higher operation costs.
Copy cat design: disgusting
Wants to beat NVIDA on AI chip = DREAMING TOO BIG.
Rumors: NIO supply chain corrupted, high cost, CEO planning to move to UAE, leaving China to have better life.
$NIO Trading AnalysisThe chart showcases NIO Inc. in a prolonged downtrend, characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows over the past year. Recently, the price appears to be forming a base near key support levels, suggesting potential consolidation or a reversal. The chart integrates multiple technical indicators, including pivot points, dark pool activity, volume, trendlines, and moving averages.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Analysis:
Prolonged Downtrend:
The red descending trendline highlights a series of lower highs (LH) since the beginning of the year.
The price has struggled to break above key resistance levels, maintaining a bearish bias.
Short-Term Consolidation:
The price is currently consolidating near 4.50, supported by the green ascending trendline. This suggests a potential shift in momentum if buyers step in.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Levels:
4.77-5.00: Immediate resistance zone aligned with multiple dark pool prints and a prior pivot level.
5.79: Key swing high resistance level.
6.15-6.68: Long-term resistance near pivot R3 and R4.
7.11 (R5): A significant level marking a potential breakout zone if bullish momentum accelerates.
Support Levels:
4.50-4.52: Current consolidation zone and a cluster of dark pool prints, providing immediate support.
4.28 (S1): Recent swing low, offering additional support.
4.02-3.69: Deeper support levels, with 3.69 marking a historical low.
3. Volume Analysis:
Increased volume near 4.50-4.77 suggests institutional interest or accumulation in this area.
Declining volume on recent pullbacks indicates weakening bearish momentum, a bullish signal for potential reversal.
4. Moving Averages:
The price is hovering below the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
A decisive break above these moving averages would signal a potential trend reversal.
5. Dark Pool Activity:
Significant dark pool levels are clustered between 4.52 and 4.77, which could act as strong support or resistance depending on price action.
Above this, dark pool levels near 6.15 and 6.68 highlight potential targets in a bullish breakout scenario.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from Current Levels
Trigger: A breakout above 4.77 with strong volume would confirm bullish momentum.
Profit Targets:
5.00: Psychological level and minor resistance.
5.79: Key swing resistance and a long-term target.
6.15-6.68: Cluster of dark pool levels and pivot resistance zones.
Stop-Loss: Below 4.28, as a break under this level invalidates the bullish setup.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below 4.50
Trigger: A daily close below 4.50, confirmed by increased volume, signals further downside.
Profit Targets:
4.28 (S1): Immediate support level.
4.02-3.69: Long-term support zones and historical lows.
3.50 or lower: In case of capitulation, watch for deeper bearish targets.
Stop-Loss: Above 4.77, as a reversal above this level would indicate bullish recovery.
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation
If the price remains range-bound between 4.50-4.77, traders can:
Look for breakouts above 4.77 for bullish entries.
Look for breakdowns below 4.50 for bearish entries.
Target mid-range levels for quick scalping opportunities.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: The 4.50-4.77 zone is critical. A breakout above 4.77 favors bullish momentum, while a breakdown below 4.50 opens the door for further downside.
Long-Term Outlook: The green ascending trendline and accumulation near dark pool levels suggest that institutional buyers may be stepping in. If the price holds above 4.50, this could mark the beginning of a new uptrend.
What`s Your opinion about this?I have been monitoring NIO for a while now.. and I just can`t decide what is happening :)
There are so many possibilities @ the moment:
1: We have just finished the ABC correction for the first wave up ?
2: We are creating the 4th wave down in 1-2-3-4-5 ?
3: We have a clear H&S pattern - so the trend could continue downwards ?
For me it`s not a buy or sell @ the moment.. it`s make it or break it phase!
If You forget all the weekly delivery numbers and all the other shit what`s going on with NIO and look at the chart only from technical perspective then this is what I see.
Kind a confused.. others are saying that buy and forget it.. but You can`t forget that we have been lower .. So it`s up 2 You!
Good luck to everyone & happy coming holiday`s to everybody :)
NIO Inc - ADR (Extended Hours) | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# NIO Inc - ADR (Extended Hours)
- Double Formation
* 6.05 USD | Resistance Area | Reversed
* 3.55 USD | Support Area | A+ Set Up | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* Retracement | Full Survey | Short Entry At 7.65 USD | Subdivision 2
* Pennant Structure 1 & 2 | Downtrend Entry Survey
* Behavioural Time frame | Daily Settings | Subdivision 3
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Sell
NIO Retesting WedgeNio still retesting wedge in line chart after brokeout
Price still downtrend until now, but if we not break $3 it seem NIO performing lower high and retesting wedge after breakout is valid
Maybe we can see around $8 and $13 if we can survive this wedge
Great ENTRY LevelsNYSE:NIO can easily compete with NASDAQ:TSLA and smaller EVs like NYSE:CHPT , NASDAQ:EVGO if they fail to innovate by adopting battery swap technology. NIO's ability to swap a battery in under 4 minutes is a game-changer, offering unparalleled convenience. At under $5/share is a bargain!!
Two possible entry points 👀
NIO- showing signs of a potential bullish trend NIO Inc. is showing signs of a potential bullish trend in the short term, supported by both technical and fundamental factors:
Technical Perspective:
Strong Support Zone: The price is currently holding above a key support level near $4.50, previously marked as a "strong low," which indicates buyer interest in this zone.
Change of Character (CHoCH): Multiple CHoCH patterns visible on the chart suggest a potential reversal from the recent downtrend, pointing toward upward momentum.
Upside Target: The immediate resistance levels are between $5.00 and $5.50, which align with prior supply zones, presenting a potential target for bullish movement.
Fundamental Perspective:
Improving Sentiment: Recent developments in the EV industry, coupled with positive policy measures in China supporting the sector, could boost investor confidence in NIO.
Undervalued Price: Current levels suggest the stock is priced attractively, with the negative sentiment and earlier concerns appearing to be overdone, leaving room for recovery.
While the long-term trajectory depends on broader market conditions and company fundamentals, the short-term outlook points to a potential upward move toward $5.50.
