Nflx puts for earnings today. Strangle. Will be buying a few otm puts and one very far otm call strangling Netflix. Earnings likely to see a big down move.
NFC trade ideas
Netflix user growth to prove recent correction is a spikeNetflix's third-quarter 2023 results will be announced on Wednesday after the stock market closes
The company has implemented a policy prohibiting the sharing of accounts outside the household
Will that reflect in the earnings, making the stock correction a buying opportunity?
The global entertainment landscape has undergone a transformative shift with the rise of streaming platforms, effectively eclipsing traditional media such as television.
Leading this digital revolution is Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), providing audiences access to an extensive library of movies and series for a modest subscription fee.
As we approach Wednesday, expectations are running high for the release of Netflix's third-quarter results, a key event in light of the platform's recent policy shift regarding password sharing.
Introduced in May of this year, this change aimed to curb the unauthorized sharing of accounts and appears to be having the desired effect, as user numbers continue to grow – a change that is poised to manifest itself in the forthcoming third-quarter figures.
Yet, intriguingly, despite Netflix's robust user growth, its stock has been navigating a broad correction phase, prompting speculation that the conclusion of this adjustment may yield results exceeding current forecasts.
In the lead-up to the results, all eyes are on Netflix's projected earnings per share, which currently stand at an estimated $3.48, alongside revenues totaling $8.53 billion.
Notably, the forecast has experienced a remarkable 24 upward revisions, with only 3 instances of downward revision, indicating a high level of market anticipation.
NFLX earning coming#NFLX creating reversal divergence but still weak when it still closed below 364$
IF NFLX can break above 364$ will back test 371$. Above 371$ will be 377$
IF NFLX hold below 364$, support will be 354$. Break down below 354$ can be 346/340/332$
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l 📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: negative swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/18 AMC
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Revenue Anticipations: negative surprise for Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #2
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
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EPS Anticipations: positive surprise for EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #6
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is neutral.
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📝 S Y N O P S I S
"I expect the market will buy the +surprise if the earnings report hits the Wall Street consensus, or sell the -surprise if the earnings report misses the Wall Street consensus."
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
NFLXJust a technical look..
Technical view means only analyzed chart and nothing else..
This analysis can be easily completed and the time frame is high, so it will take a lot of time.
Good long opportunity in NetflixWith the recent recovery from NASDAQ:NDX from in the last 2-3 days, i would like to go long if NASDAQ:NDX breaks out from its trendline.
NASDAQ:NFLX is an attractive option as i believe we can get a 1:2.5 approx long trade here with a possible 16% upside. Since last year we have seen a higher high higher low trend which is again trsting its new higher low as it is being supported by the volumes near the 50-100-200 DMA near this price level. I would like to go long if NASDAQ:NDX breaks out on NASDAQ:NFLX with a SL below the DMAs.
All eyes of NASDAQ:NDX and NASDAQ:NFLX for a good RR swing trade.
$NFLX - Can it bounce from trendline?NASDAQ:NFLX Netflix has paid the head and shoulders breakdown and reached the $368 target as mentioned in my previous post on Aug 15.
Currently, it's trading within a downtrend channel. There is a potential for a bounce from the lower trendline.
However, there is still a risk that it can see further downside to $354. So know your risk.
Targets to the upside:
$387.37
$411
Downside risk:
Could Netflix (NITFLIX) keep Falling ?Hello Everyone,
Today, I've spotted a very compelling signal to short on Netflix (NFLX). I previously mentioned that this stock was likely to decline, and now it appears that it could continue falling for three reasons:
1) The market Broke the Trendline with significant Volume.
2) Right after the break, the market retraced to the trendline, which we call a 'PULLBACK,' and then continued its downward movement with significant momentum.
3) What encourages me the most to set a target of $316 is the Fibonacci extension levels. These levels are reasonable, as you can see on the chart, and the 1.618 level is an optimal target to consider for taking profits.
I hope you've enjoyed reading my analysis of Netflix stock. If you find my insights beneficial, please hit the like and follow buttons for more ideas.
NFLX earnings watchNFLX earnings are on Wednesday 7/19/23 at 4pm. Netflix (NFLX) reported Q1 March 2023 earnings of 2.88 per share on revenue of 8.2 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was 2.83 per share on revenue of 8.2 billion. Revenue grew 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. The company said in its shareholders letter it expects second quarter earnings of approximately 2.84 per share for the quarter ending June 30, 2023.
NFLX Q2 June 2023 Consensus:
EPS = 2.82
Revenue = 8.27 B
PE = 47.5
NFLX earnings recap since 2022:
1/20/22 = (- 110)
4/19/22 = (-82)
7/19/22 = +14
10/18/22 = +11
1/19/23 = +13
4/18/23 = +1
NFLX VWMA levels:
VWMA20 = 435
VWMA50 = 399
VWMA100 = 359
VWMA200 = 318
NFLX options data:
7/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 30,928
Call Volume Total 45,847
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.67
Put Open Interest Total 124,823
Call Open Interest Total 121,902
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.02
8/18 expiry
Put Volume Total 5,613
Call Volume Total 7,508
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.75
Put Open Interest Total 25,430
Call Open Interest Total 32,265
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.79
9/15 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,769
Call Volume Total 2,525
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.10
Put Open Interest Total 47,611
Call Open Interest Total 44,274
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.08
#NFLX is it time to buy NETFLIX and CHILL?Netflix at a very interesting level here. 38.2 fib retracement of June lows and July highs. Channel Support. Previous resistance now support? Reversal off 200dma. Seems like a plausible level to attempt a long
NETFLIX: Buy opportunity on a 4 month stretch.NFLX is trying to find support on the 1D MA200, which is at the bottom of a (longer than a year) Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D technical outlook is red (RSI = 36.027, MACD = -9.900, ADX = 36.923) signifying considerable upside potential and the rebound on the 30.00 oversold RSI level indicates the reversing momentum. We expect an immediate rally as part of the new bullish leg that will target the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 585.00).
Prior idea:
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Bullish on Netflix.
As you can see here, we have bounced off of a major trend line and the YTD VWAP as well. The MACD is about to cross and the RSI hiekin ashi has flipped from oversold to green. This is all on the daily chart.
NFLX: BIG UPSIDENFLX has bounced off it's upward trendline with weekly RSI showing oversold. PT1 is $347 and PT2 is $449.
Netflix - Come in...the water is fineWe dived below the Center-Line.
This is the time for a short, not when it's down at the Lower Medianline Parallel. Because there are lurking Creatures you don't want to meet.
My stop would be above the CL test high.
Keep in mind that earnings are coming out soon. So mybe give yourself time and trade it with an Options Strategy?
Gone for a swim...the water is fine §8-)
NFLX Analysis: Changes in Management, Price at MinimumYesterday, the NFLX share price dropped below USD 370, the lowest since late May of this year, and about -22% from the July peak.
Note that on July 6, we wrote that the NFLX stock price could meet resistance at USD 450 per share, and the signals from the chart gave bearish warnings. Just since July, the stock price began to perform worse than the broad S&P 500 market index.
Perhaps the company knows better about the reasons for the emerging negative dynamics and is making changes in management. This week it became known about the appointment of Amy Reinhard to the post of president of the company's advertising business. New product directors and technical directors were also appointed.
Will new executives help the stock return to its upward trajectory?
Bearish arguments:
→ a long upper shadow on the October 3 candle may indicate the strength of sellers in the stock market;
→ Thursday’s bearish candle may become an element of a breakout of the long-term channel (shown in blue);
→ pressure on the price of NFLX shares may be exerted by a negative trend in the stock market due to the tough policy of the Federal Reserve.
Bullish arguments:
→ a breakdown of the lower border of the ascending channel may turn out to be false;
→ support may come from the level of USD 370, which previously had an impact on the price.
The approaching earnings season may have a strong impact on the price. Already on October 18, we will learn the results of NFLX for the past quarter.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Netflix's Bullish Trend Ending: Traders, Prepare for Downtrend!Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on Netflix
In our close examination of NFLX, the streaming titan, a compelling narrative unfolds. Initially, a double-top pattern emerged between July 2020 and January 2022, followed by a significant breakout from the neckline. This breakout confirmed a bearish reversal, resulting in a remarkable 70% decline from its peak.
However, the plot deepens. NFLX recently revisited its double-top pattern's neckline while concurrently crafting a channel chart pattern. Adding to the intrigue, NFLX struggled to regain its former heights and descended below both the lower trendline and the dynamic support line, a classic sign of a sustained bearish trajectory.
Not to be overlooked, the Stochastic indicator chimed in with a bearish divergence, providing further validation for the impending downward movement.
Our target price? Set conservatively at under $300.
Traders, prepare for a captivating journey ahead!
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on NASDAQ:NFLX ."
NFLX EXPANDING CHANNEL BREAKOUTNFLX confirmed a bearish breakout on the lower boundary formed over the expanding channel. Here we expect the price to continue the bearish sentiment to the downside towards the picked up key support level on the bottom close to $275.
NFLX going down through mid-OctoberNFLX has a significant amount of options GEX showing 380 in October, I expect the stock to continue it's downturn, perhaps with some fluctuation through October.
NETFLIX Is the streaming Giant a buy again?Netflix (NFLX) had a great run since our March 23 long (see chart below) and gave us more than +51% return in 4 months:
The long-term pattern remains a Bullish Megaphone and right now the price sits on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been unbroken since November 10 2022. On top of that, the 1D RSI is oversold on the 30.00 Support. Last time it was this low (March 10), the Megaphone priced a Higher Low bottom. As you realize, along with the 0.382 Fibonacci, we currently sit on a quadruple level Support Cluster.
Based on the 93 candle (roughly 135 days) rule within this Megaphone, which suggests that at the end of the 93 candle count, NFLX will either be near a High or a Low, we still have around 2 months to call a bottom. As a result, if the 1D MA200 and Megaphone break, we can see a slow descend along the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and then pick up a reversal.
Either way, the once mighty streaming giant is entering a new long-term Buy Zone. Our target is the 0.786 Fibonacci extension ($587.50) even though we wil most likely see the Megaphone peak higher by Q2 2024.
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Long NetflixI'm long netflix here on the 4hr macdh diveregnce as shown at support. Target red line as shown. Very oversold on daily.
Have been buying up all tech for last two days
(NFLX) – Bullish Signal: Bullish Signal: Break and Retest at 200Analysis:
Break and Retest Pattern: The chart clearly shows that NFLX recently broke above a significant resistance level, indicating a potential shift in the trend. This break is marked as a bullish signal.
200-Day SMA Support: As NFLX retraced after the breakout, it approached the 200-Day SMA, a widely watched long-term trend indicator. The 200-Day SMA has historically acted as a strong support level. This retest of the 200-day SMA serves as a critical point of interest.
Bullish Scenario: If NFLX successfully holds above the 200-day SMA support level following the retest, it could signify a continuation of the bullish trend. This could attract more buyers, potentially driving the stock price higher.
Netflix's bleak futureUnlike Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, it failed to break through its ATH, and a pullback is inevitable. Aside from a few exclusives, Netflix is losing its differentiation from other platforms. The gap is closing and other undervalued platforms will quickly eat into Netflix's market capitalization.
NFLX - Bearish SequenceNetflix has been in a Downtrend since July 19th.
After its failed attempt at a Higher High, price decided to break down below its Low (Point A) beginning my Bearish Sequence Setup and I believe it is on the move to Retrace to the Fib'd Range @ 412.27 - 398.52 to be rejected down to Sequence Target @ 315.6 - 283.05!
As for indicators, Price Action has moved beneath a curling 200 EMA and my Dynamic Support & Resistance strengthening my Bearish Bias.
