OPC trade ideas
$OXY An Oversold Risk/Reward Play$OXY has caught our attention as it is bouncing off trendline support. Today the company put our an operational update.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) announced today a further reduction in 2020 capital spending to between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion from its original 2020 guidance of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion, a midpoint reduction of 47 percent. At current commodity prices, 2020 annual production from continuing operations is expected to be 1,275,000 to 1,305,000 BOEPD, a reduction of 6 percent compared to prior guidance of 1,360,000 to 1,390,000 BOEPD.
The Company also announced it will reduce 2020 operating and corporate costs by at least $600 million compared to the original 2020 plan, including significant salary reductions for executive leadership. These cost reductions are in addition to previously announced operating and overhead synergies of $1.1 billion that are expected to be fully realized in 2020. The combination of synergy realizations and additional cost reductions is expected to reduce SG&A, Other Operating Expense, and Exploration Overhead to approximately $500 million on a future quarterly run-rate basis. Operating cost reductions are expected to lower 2020 domestic operating costs to approximately $7.00 per BOE.
"We are making solid progress with additional cost reductions to help withstand the low commodity price environment and other macroeconomic pressures impacting our industry and the global economy," said President and Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub. "Based on our team's recent efforts, we now expect to significantly lower our costs in all aspects of the business. We will continue to take actions as necessary to further strengthen our balance sheet and ensure the long-term viability of our business."
As always, trade with caution and good luck to all!
Accumulation on Occidental?You can only hold oil down for so long. I’m expecting this to accumulate over the virus stall, but as soon as the economic activity returns, I expect this to go back up. This low is from the 1990s, it’s been a long time since it was this cheap.
Oil ComparisonsOXY has the majority of its EV tied up in oil/gas and with the recent OPEC fallout it may make sense as a long.
More research on extraction costs should probably be done because there may be a serious problem for the firm if oil prices are kept low and operations are not profitable. A minor portion of noncurrent assets is in chemicals and marketing but not enough to say it will determine where the firm will go in terms of price.
Carl Icahn increased his stake to 10% but this may have been more of averaging down his position since he originally entered near ~$60 a share or in that region so buying in at around $14 a share would mean more control in the firm for less of an investment.
Short term I expect dividends to be slashed, I will be very surprised if they post net profit at the next earnings as the oil price shock should have killed their margins.
Intermediate to long term, potentially an acquisition target for and XOM or CVX (my guess is CVX because of the Andarko swipe) but it's hard for me to see what else bad can come out for the firm. Oil prices being slashed is likely the worst possible thing and with the coronavirus disrupting trade it really makes sense for OPEC to collude in order to fund government aid. Saudi Arabia/Russia don't have too much of a problem with the outbreak but with decreases in travel and commerce due to governmental bans externalities may force both back to the table.
Or at the least create a stronger incentive for collusion as both will have a need to financing
A massive opportunity with Occidental PetroleumFundamentals got dented since last time I looked at this stock; however, I believe there is just a massive buying opportunity here. I am damn proud of how I labelled the structure. The count is hot from the press, and I did not sit on it, so further updates and fine-tuning is possible. Please do shout if you see that I violated any EW rule. Always helpful. Your occasional comments, alternative views about EW technique is the way I learn.
Occidental Petroleum Corp. Oversold Bounce Potential $oxy
Average analysts price target $48 overweight
Yield 9.65%
Occidental Petroleum Corp. engages in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. It operates through the following segments: Oil & Gas, Chemical and Midstream & Marketing. The Oil & Gas segment explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals and vinyls. The Midstream & Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, natural gas, carbon dioxide and power. It also trades around its assets, including transportation and storage capacity. The company was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, TX.
Need to break 44.46, if not back to 36Er around the corner right at resistance din manage to break, need to clear 44.46 to continue uptrend if not back to 36, go long if it hit 36
Long OXYMacro: Inflation accelerating as indicated by 3 month positive beta on WTI & TRJEFFCRB against 3 month negative beta on DXY, coupled with production in Permian basin decelerating on a sequential rate of change basis
Technical: Bullish MACD and RSI divergences, coupled with price action having 3 month secant > 3 month tangent. Entry price of $42.22 with price target of $52 and stop loss of $40.
Descending Triangle with bullish divergence. Breaking out. Oxy was punished for the perceived over payment of Anadarko Petroleum. Severely undervalued @$40. In 2018 Anadarko had assest value's of 40 billion alone. Occidental had assets valued at 43 billion. At the current price of $41 OXY's market cap is only 36 Billion. Less than half the combined 2018 valuation. Perfect chart setup.
$OXY is about to run
Multi indicator confluence of a coming trend shift.
Been averaging down on this as the price action showed more promise.
Indicator roundup looking like all signs point to up.
ENERGY - Lets See What Happens?BLUF : OCY got Hammered 2018...WTI Crude...Dividends...Long Bets here, Let's See What Plays Out!!!
OXY Rounded bottom PatternOXY has formed a nice rounded bottom pattern. Has cleared the 50ma and would expect a move to the 200ma in the near term.
Entry today was at $40.63 with a target intersection of the 200ma in the 46-46.50 range.
Low risk entry with a stop at 39.20.
The last 2 earnings dates have led to declines in price so would suggest exiting before earnings.
Signs of reversalsTaking a look at this down trending stock we can see that each lower low becomes less and less with the macd histogram becoming progressively smaller.
If we take a look at the RSI it is bullishly diverging a lot as notes by the higher lows on the rsi and the lower lows on the price action.
If we take a look at the pattern that it is forming it seems to be a falling wedge so a break out may be soon, especially if a some good new for oil comes to mind.
Moreover Warren buffet purchased shares of this company at a much higher price, so while I lack in my ability for fundamental analysis, I think that buying a shares cheaper than Berkshire Hathaway, who are expert investors would be a be plus as well.
$OXY - short, downtrend channel, good risk rewardNYSE:OXY - short, bounce off upper trend downward channel
Long-term supportThe stock might reached it's long-term support for now. I would recommend to buy some under $40, SL below $30, TP $60-80-100.
Excellent potential, deeply undervaluedExcellent potential, deeply undervalued. It's an excellent value bet to take.
It has a 8.17% current dividend yield.
Target for six month period — $60.
TESLA? No! OXY? Yes!
OXYOccidental Petroleum (OXY)
American oil company. The headquarters is in Los Angeles. The company is ranked 491st in the Fortune Global 500. Founded in 1920.
We continue to pay attention to the oil and gas sector. 5x weekly divergence (very rare), increased volume, the price moves in a wedge. Very promising picture
OXY / Long Term Long Position!Extended my Energy Portfolio with Occidental Petroleum Corp shares.
Fundamental:
I will stick to my opinion and investment strategie by adding this asset to my list.
I personally think that nearly every energy-related stock is trading unter it's actual value .
Revenue in 2019:
Q2: 8543 mio USD
Q3: 5743 mio. USD
Profit both positive minus nearly the same costs.
Technical:
Support: 38.500
RSI(14) 61,443 BUY
STOCH(9,6) 67,992 BUY
STOCHRSI(14) 78,901 Overought
MACD(12,26) 0,190 BUY
ADX(14) 29,425 BUY
Williams %R -22,727 BUY
CCI(14) 117,1167 BUY
ATR(14) 0,2536 low volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0,1743 BUY
Ultimate Oscillator 56,784 BUY
ROC 1,331 BUY
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0,5600 BUY
Bullish divergence.6 months of accumulation demonstrated by the divergence in price and momentum indicators.
Relately good time to invest!This is a popular energy stock with immense volume. It is currently at a low point. According to Yahoo Finance, an undervalued stock. This stock is not necessarily a bad option currently and seems as if it will go up very soon.
$OXY Look for it to be a runner this week. BullishI'm looking for Occidental to push to $38.5-$39 this week and judging by options activity so are the big boys.
OXY
