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DELTA AIRLINES INCDELTA AIRLINES INCDELTA AIRLINES INC

DELTA AIRLINES INC

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Delta $DAL taking off for further gainsDelta has a very constructive fundamental valuation (see the bottom half of the chart) and a very constructive "accumulated position" on the charts to suggest "Blue Skies Ahead" for further gains in $DAL. Fundamentally, you can see $DAL has $3.6 billion in "free cash flow" which is the real cash return you would earn if you owned the company outright (which is a simplistic, but more realistic view than just earnings). The market capitalization of $DAL is just over $30 billion, which means the current "Free cash flow yield" is 12% (3.6 billion/ 30 billion). That is a back-wards looking number but it is a high return given the alternatives that we can find in the universe of stocks. Technically, $DAL has a price pattern that shows that investors have accumulated shares and are "in control" of those shares and are prepared to hold them off of the market until higher prices are realized in the marketplace. Why is this the case? It is all about how shares accumulate from sellers to buyer and how the price is displayed on the chart. The price where the most price action takes place is the "battleground" area and can be seen by the thin white line I have drawn in the chart across the $37-$36.75 price level from June until September. What happened at that price line is important, because it spent 10 weeks total there and when the market climbs above that level, it means that the sellers are likely done their selling and the buyers have taken over control. The way the pattern develops from the "battleground" area is to move away from that zone for the same amount of time that it spent at that level AND the size of the movement "at the battleground zone" is the approximate size of the advance from the battleground level. The white box you see is the measurement of the movement around the 10-week white line from June to September and then it is moved to the end of the battleground level and used to measure the time and price of the advance. These dual factors of fundamentals and "share price accumulation" give solid credence to a strategy to look for a move to $45-$45.50 over the ensuing 6 weeks. With $DAL at $41.17 now, that only represents a return of 10% in 6 weeks from current levels. If there are corrections back to the green arrow line drawn on the chart, then a much better risk/reward trade will set up as well and I will be looking to add to positions. Other airlines including $JBLU, $LUV also support the $DAL chart. Wishing you well, Tim October 20, 2016 11:48AM EST
NYSE:DALLong
by timwest
12
Delta Air Lines Inc - DAL - Daily - Descending below key averageRolling over again, now breaking the 253 (1 year) day moving average after testing it in April and again in May... The 66 day (1 quarter) moving average is pointing down and the price is rejecting it on the last rally. 41 is the level where the least amount of trading has occurred in DAL shares, so that means this is where buyers are supposed to be. I think, however, that the buyers are already "IN" the stock and we can see a slow bleed from this level and grind down to the 36-33-30 level over the next 6-9 months. If Walmart is rolling over, so will Delta. Walmart leads the way. If anything, consider going long Walmart (very cheap in this recession) and short Delta. Be prepared to sell short on rallies back to 41-42 after a push down to $39.50 support (from high volume - see volume profile on right side of chart). Stop loss levels are 44 and 45. 42-43 is the lowest risk level to sell short with the tightest stop, but the safest trade is when DAL is falling and weak since it is more likely to trigger stops and keep falling. So, ideally we want to push through 41 and get down to 39.50 and have a bounce, then reject 41 and push down through 39.50 to set up the move to 36-33-30. Updates to follow. Tim DAL 41.45 last 10:40AM EST June 8, 2015
NYSE:DALShort
by timwest
4
Delta Airlines -DAL - Weekly -Touched 1x's sales in 2014Delta is just off of an extreme level of valuation as it backs down to $43.36 today, May 22, 2015. If you look at the Total Revenue chart, you can see that revenue gains were steady and have increased by 42% since 5 years ago in May. Over the same time frame, however, the stock price has risen by 267%. After-tax margins went from losses to profits and margins briefly climbed over 20% (after-tax). Next questions: Did DAL use up all of their tax-loss carry forwards? Will the drop in oil prices lead consumers to spend more on travel? Will people fly on vacations more or will driving still be the best choice. DAL has been a monster winner for any portfolio up until now, but Airlines are a cyclical business and the business cycle hasn't been outlawed. Consolidation and efficiencies have driven up profitability, and shareholders have been richly rewarded. It looks like there are more "shareholders" than "share-buyers" at this level and the recent price action is alerting us to sellers unloading shares. $46 seems to be the common price where the sellers are unloading shares and the strong buyers are down at $34-$30. So, from $43.30 here, the upside seems less than the risk to the downside. Here's hoping you look at the fundamentals too when you examine a chart and not just the "technimentals".... Cheers, Tim 5/22/2015 2:02 PM EST 43.31 last DAL PS - Note - I have been picking a top in DAL over the past year +. Check out my charts.
NYSE:DALShort
by timwest
3
Buy fear, sell greed... Mmm airlines in general flat YTD. Anyhow buy volume on D1 Charts show bids averaging above their daily volume which tells me that there was short selling profit taking, but more importantly that there was a large amount of bidders buying the dip forming the long legged doji at support. If we look at todays derivatives action you can see the largest bidder loading up on 6,958 SEP 15 48 Calls at 1.70 (Delta .35 / IV 31.62% / Open Interest 57,412) . So all in all, I'm looking to be long the stock. Current fast Beta is at 1.21. Support: 40.90 - 42.60 (If broken it would invalidate the trade) , do note 200 Moving Average support (I'm not alarmed by price dipping below the moving average due to previous strong recoveries after price dipped below). Resistance: 47.40 - 47.96 (Use your own discretion on where to take profits) Update: I have not entered long yet, will wait until next week to decide on whether I'll enter or not. Cheers =)
NYSE:DALLong
by Daniel.B
1