$PLTR 4h RSI, Vol. Bearish Divergence4H chart showing divergence and may not necessarily be a top but could be pulling back for a test of support. Watch 10DMA for potential support.
PTX trade ideas
Overvalued insider tradeRelative valuation appears significantly inflated compared to peers. A more justifiable valuation would be in the vicinity of 90, with a target of 95 anticipated by next month. Even considering favorable political tailwinds, the current trajectory seems unsustainable, potentially reaching 120 before retracing.
$PLTR ready for a move (to the downside IMO)Clear squeeze setup forming at ATH after massive post-earnings momentum. Volume steadily declining over 5 days with significant volatility contraction. BB-KC squeeze (green bands compressing within Keltner) typically precedes major directional move.
Bearish thesis:
- Overbought conditions
- Volume decline
- Multiple timeframe squeeze potential
- Rich valuations
Trade plan if bearish break:
- Call credit spread above ATH wick
- Leveraged inverse ETF position
- Entries on volume confirmation + EMA breaks
- Stops: Above EMAs (if broken) or ATH (if holding)
Watching 4H/1D charts for squeeze alignment. Key trigger = strong red candle + volume spike.
⚠️ Risk management is critical here. Despite bearish setup, never underestimate bull market psychology on momentum names.
Position size accordingly. No trade is guaranteed.
#Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PLTR
(Not financial advice - DYOR)
PLTR Rising Wedge Bearish PatternEarly entry high risk at $118
Stop loss $121
Right breaking trend line short entry at below $114
Stop loss above nearest high at the time
Target $110 - $105 - $100 or even filling a half of the upward gap after ER.
Disclaimer
PLTR All time highsWith PLTR at all time highs where do we go from here? Avg 30D Vol 78.47M and current Vol 128.22M. Until we break the current trend line, i see more upside. I have a measured next move at $134. Let's see if we can get there. GL!
PLTR at ResistanceHuge resistance here. I expect a move down if we dont start gaining levels here. Don't get too excited PLTR holders.
My fibs are projections off past monthly moves to the high which is my proprietary fib pull!
Thanks for reading!
PLTRAudio Analysis: notebooklm.google.com
Below is an **integrated Fundamental and Technical Analysis** report on Palantir Technologies (PLTR), with a particular focus on the **bear case** and considerations for a **short sell** opportunity. Please note this is a **professional-level overview** intended for the trading floor manager, drawing upon both the high-level fundamentals and recent technical signals.
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## 1. **Fundamental Analysis Recap**
1. **Sky-High Valuation Multiples**
- **Trailing P/E**: ~583×, which is extremely elevated versus historical and industry norms.
- **Forward P/E**: ~200× (based on ~$0.55 forward EPS), still far above typical high-growth tech peers and well beyond the ~20× S&P 500 average forward P/E.
- **Price/Sales**: ~87×, highlighting that revenue growth needs to stay exceptionally strong to justify current levels.
2. **Growth & Profitability**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q4 2024 revenue up 36% YoY; 2025 guidance at ~$3.75B (+31% YoY).
- **Margins**: Net margin around 18%—solid, but not extraordinary enough to sustain a 200× P/E if growth slows.
3. **Market Expectations & Analyst Targets**
- Consensus 12-month price target near $69–$70 implies ~37% downside from current levels ($110+).
- Stock price incorporates **aggressive AI-driven growth assumptions**, meaning any miss on guidance or shift in sentiment could trigger multiple compression.
4. **Overreliance on AI Hype**
- Palantir is benefiting from enthusiasm around its AI platform (AIP). Overreliance on a single narrative can inflate valuations—if the AI hype fades or competition intensifies, shares may correct sharply.
**Key Bearish Fundamental Takeaway**: **PLTR’s valuation appears stretched** relative to both broad market metrics and even other high-growth tech names. While growth remains robust, the current price suggests *near-flawless* execution for many years, creating a higher risk of a downside re-rating if sentiment changes.
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## 2. **Technical Analysis Summary**
1. **Weekly Chart**
- **Extended Uptrend**: Price has risen parabolically, with weekly RSI above 80 (signaling overbought conditions).
- **Volume**: Surging volumes indicate strong buying, but watch for a volume spike on any significant down week, which could confirm selling pressure.
2. **Daily Chart**
- **Overbought Momentum**: Daily RSI also hovers in the high-70s to low-80s range—historically prone to consolidation or pullbacks.
- **Elevated Price vs. Moving Averages**: The stock is trading well above the 10-day and 20-day MAs. A break below these short-term MAs often triggers momentum traders to exit.
3. **Intraday (1-Hour) Chart**
- **Sharp Run-Up**: Price has advanced rapidly, with minimal pauses.
- **Profit-Taking Signs**: Slight cooling in the 1-hour RSI and the formation of small-bodied candles with upper wicks, hinting at short-term distribution or indecision.
**Key Bearish Technical Takeaway**: PLTR appears **technically overextended** in multiple timeframes. This increases the likelihood of a pullback or correction, especially if broader market sentiment towards high-multiple stocks worsens.
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## 3. **Bear Case Rationale**
1. **Valuation Compression Risk**
- With P/E > 200× forward earnings, even a moderate downward revision in growth expectations could spur multiple contraction—potentially sending the stock sharply lower.
2. **Overbought Technicals**
- Weekly and daily RSIs in the 80s are historically unsustainable. Overbought conditions often precede consolidations or corrections, providing a window for short sellers to capitalize.
3. **Macro Factors & Rising Rates**
- Growth stocks with high valuations are particularly sensitive to interest rates. Any hint of tighter monetary policy can diminish risk appetite for stocks priced at extreme multiples.
4. **Analyst & Institutional Rotation**
- If institutional investors choose to rotate out of high-growth, high-valuation names into more defensive sectors, PLTR could see accelerated selling.
- The stated 12-month analyst consensus target implies substantial downside, suggesting limited support from the sell-side in the near term.
5. **AI Hype Vulnerability**
- Overreliance on an AI-driven narrative can be a double-edged sword. In the event that AI adoption or contract wins slow, the stock might face a severe revaluation.
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## 4. **Potential Short-Sell Setups**
Below are two illustrative ways a short-seller might engage, each with varying risk levels:
1. **Momentum Shift Entry**
- **Trigger**: Wait for price to close below the 10-day or 20-day moving average on the daily chart with a confirmed pickup in sell volume.
- **Stop-Loss Consideration**: Place stops above the recent swing high (e.g., above $116–$120) to protect from a short squeeze if the bullish run persists.
- **Target Zones**: A price retracement toward the $90–$95 area (recent pivot/support) or the round number $100 could be initial downside targets.
2. **Rally Fade / Overbought Condition**
- **Trigger**: Enter a short position into a relief bounce back toward the prior highs if momentum indicators show a clear negative divergence (e.g., RSI making lower highs).
- **Stop-Loss Placement**: Just above the new local high—if price unexpectedly breaks higher, exit quickly.
- **Target Zones**: Scale out partial profits around the 50-day MA or psychological levels like $100. If broader market conditions worsen, a deeper move below $90 could be possible.
**Risk Management**: Shorting a high-momentum, high-volatility stock is inherently risky. Tight stops, position sizing, and continuous monitoring are essential. **Cover** promptly if price action contradicts the bearish thesis.
---
## 5. **Conclusion & Manager Summary**
**Fundamental Snapshot**:
- Palantir’s valuation is pricing in extraordinary future growth (P/E > 200× forward). Any slowdown or miss may induce significant downside.
- Analysts are cautious; consensus targets are below current price.
**Technical Situation**:
- Price is extended across multiple timeframes, with **overbought RSI** readings and a near-vertical price trajectory—historically indicative of potential pullbacks.
- A correction to technical support (near $100, or possibly $90–$95) may be in the cards if bullish momentum wanes.
**Bear Thesis / Short Opportunity**:
- **Rationale**: Extreme valuation + Overbought technicals + Potential macro headwinds = Elevated risk of a downside re-rating.
- **Strategy**: Look for a shift in short-term momentum (closing below key moving averages) or negative RSI divergence as a **potential short entry** signal. Set stops carefully above recent highs to cap losses.
Given the stock’s **hyper-bullish** sentiment, timing is crucial. If bullish momentum persists longer than expected, short positions risk facing quick squeezes. Nonetheless, the **probability of a meaningful correction** grows with each new leg higher, offering an appealing **risk/reward** profile for experienced traders prepared to manage volatility.
---
### **Final Note**
This combined **Fundamental + Technical** perspective suggests **caution** for long investors at these elevated levels and **potential opportunity** for short sellers anticipating a reversion to more sustainable valuation metrics. Proper risk controls—such as **position sizing, stop-loss orders, and regular re-evaluation** of the thesis—remain paramount.
PLTR - LONGI am hoping that this down day on QQQ is short lived and that we ultimately close above all the prior 4 days lows , that's a key detail . We are three legs down on QQQ 5 min though and I think we going up , so I added a share of PLTR as my dip buy .....
This may be one of the best things to own right now ....
Just a share , I've already got 2 names ( CRWD + NFLX ) from last few days . This is a 3 legs down on QQQ buy .
PLTR, has 1/2 , 2/2 gaps and eps and rev to go along with growth stock .
Tight moves , good RS so good it ignores everything else market does on red days lol .
As for the level of account risk I have with last few days stock trades I am at a potential 2.8% loss , not including beta hedge of ONON/NKE.... time to chill and let the trades tell me what to do next .... I was considering researching beta hedge options on NFLX, CRWD and PLTR .... probably won't but I will research it though to consider for future trades maybe ....
For those of you who don't know what beta hedging is ... you long one short the other , trade the spread , can collect options premiums potentially too by selling puts etc. to acquire shares . Great for trading range markets and reducing account drawdown in really good markets but potentially reduces max gain of one sided long ...
Will go through some potential beta hedges for CRWD and NFLX as homework later ...any recommendations on beta hedge ideas would we welcomed too :)
PLTR TO THE MOON 2.25 Following earnings on 2.3, PLTR broke out to all time highs. Assuming continuation, we caught a stellar trade from $103 to $113 for nearly $1000 profit! NASDAQ:PLTR
$PLTR shooting starNASDAQ:PLTR Uh Oh! Shooting star. Validation point close below $110.👀
Here are the support levels:
$100 (good)
$93 (weak)
$82 (strong)
pltr: current mean reversion target's no way to believe that this is healthy wit this development. simply just to expensive, independent what walbush analyst's say
PLTR....crash is pending everyone knows itSeen many insiders selling at the current (hyper inflated) market price. Do not buy at the top (ATH) you are only looking to getting wrecked and losing out. We just experienced a combination of major hype and a short squeeze. The daily jump was just a few amateur traders getting squeezed out. All in all, fake demand that will crash any day, you can leverage PLTD (inverse). The higher they rise, the harder they fall! If it's not in your radar, it def should be!!
Always do your own due diligence. Best of luck and safe trading!
PLTR Profit target or shortlast short didnt work out. it held the level and continued after trading sideways for a few weeks. i would like to see it react off this yearly level.
Gap Fills There's Nowhere to run and Nowhere to hide. This Stock is making History; Artificial Intelligence Stocks seem to be the Bull's game in 2025. Human Behavior is Much more predictable than accurately pricing this Equity. Price Action is all the same!
Stock Of The Day / 02.20.25 / PLTR02.20.2025 / NASDAQ:PLTR #PLTR
Fundamentals. Negative background due to information about the reduction of the US defense budget.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Correction on an uptrend.
Aftermarket/Premarket: Gap Down on increased volume. We mark the aftermarket low of 106.00.
Trading session: The primary upward impulse from the opening was stopped at 106.00. We are considering a short trade in case of retest and holding the level.
Trading scenario: False breakout with retest of the level 106.00
Entry: 104.20 upon re-touching the level and exit downwards.
Stop: 106.25 we hide it behind the tail of the candle above the level of 106.00.
Exit: Close part of the position at 97.10 when the price accelerates and a reversal candlestick pattern appears. Close the rest of the position at 100.01 when the lower high is updated and the structure of the downward trend is broken.
Risk rewards: 1/3
P.S. In order to understand the idea behind the Stock Of The Day analysis, read the following information .
What’s Driving PLTR’s Recent Rally, and What’s Next?What’s Driving PLTR’s Recent Rally, and What’s Next?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has delivered a remarkable performance, surprising many investors and traders with its rapid ascent.
The stock surged from approximately $64 on December 20, 2024, to a peak of around $118 on February 11, 2025—an impressive 89% gain in less than two months.
This substantial rally raises an important question: Is PLTR at a critical turning point?
A key technical consideration is whether the stock will retrace to fill the $15 gap visible on the chart. Historically, gaps often get filled, but strong momentum can sometimes defy this pattern.
Traders and investors should closely monitor price action, volume trends, and any fundamental catalysts that could either sustain the uptrend or trigger a pullback.
As always, exercise caution and apply sound risk management strategies when trading.
📊 My chart analysis tells the story—trade wisely.
PLTR (NASDAQ) - 30-Min Chart Short Trade Setup !🚨
🔍 Stock: PLTR (NASDAQ)
⏳ Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
📉 Setup Type: Bearish Breakdown
📍 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry Zone: Below $111.00 - $110.50 (Breakdown Confirmation)
🔻 Take Profit 1 (TP1): $106.90 (First Support)
🔻 Take Profit 2 (TP2): $100.52 (Extended Bearish Target)
🚀 Stop-Loss (SL): Above $116.47 (Key Resistance)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable for a bearish continuation 📉
🔹 Technical Analysis & Setup:
✅ Pattern: Rising Wedge Breakdown 📉
✅ Breakdown Confirmation Needed: Price falling below $111.00 with volume support
✅ Support Zones:
$106.90: First Major Support
$100.52: Extended Target for strong momentum
✅ Momentum Shift Expected: A breakdown could trigger a strong sell-off 🚨
🔥 Trade Strategy & Refinements:
📊 Volume Confirmation: Look for increasing selling volume below $111.00 📉
📉 Trailing Stop Strategy: Once price reaches TP1 ($106.90), adjust SL lower to secure profits 🛑
💰 Partial Profit Booking: Take partial profits at $106.90 and let the rest ride toward $100.52+ 💵
⚠️ Fake Breakdown Risk: If price moves back above $111.00, reconsider entry ❌
🚀 Final Thoughts:
✅ Bearish Breakdown Potential – High probability of continuation lower 📉
✅ Momentum Shift Possible – A move below $106.90 could accelerate the downside 🚨
✅ Strong Risk-Reward Setup – SL at $116.47, TP at $106.90 - $100.52 for optimal gains
📊 Trade Smart & Stick to the Plan! 🏆🔥
🔗 #ShortTrade #StockTrading #PLTR #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #MomentumTrading #BreakdownSetup #RiskReward #TradingPlan #ProfittoPath 🚨📉
PLTR FIB ExtensionWatch out for 0.5, 0.68 Fib levels.
Pltr is experiencing a Wave 3. In theory we should watch key levels at 116 , 121 and perhaps take profits if it hit that before a Wave 4 retracements.
PLTR: Superposition of 2 FractalsMerging 2 regularities into Unified Fractal Fibonacci Framework:
Fractal Cycle Correlation
Broad
Fibonacci Channels, where two coordinates define direction and a third maps a cycle, reveal the relationship between historical price points. The intersections of these lines mark zones of probability density, where price is drawn toward (or repelled) from key psychological levels.
Diaper change for PLTR...SHORT SHORT SELLSuper easy trade. PLTR went up and many people were surprised, even their own management, and now it's time for reality to check in. That means, PLTR will tank and one can use PLTD (inverse) to take advantage of this sweet opportunity 10-20%.
Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
