PTX trade ideas
PLTR Testing Key Levels! Is This the Reversal We've Been WaitingMarket Structure Overview
* Downtrend continuation observed with rejection at the Reversal Zone.
* Price is currently consolidating just below the downward trendline, struggling to break out.
* Volume suggests buyers are stepping in, but not convincingly enough for a strong reversal.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
* Support Zones:
* $78.00 – Psychological support and highest negative NETGEX level.
* $75.00 - $70.00 – Put wall zone, potential last strong support before further downside.
* Resistance Levels:
* $80.00 - $82.00 – Key breakout zone from the current wedge.
* $88.00 - $90.00 – Major resistance from the 2nd CALL Wall.
* $95.00 - $100.00 – Strong Gamma Wall and CALL resistance.
Indicators & Momentum
* MACD: Trying to cross bullish but lacks momentum—still in negative territory.
* Stoch RSI: Near oversold and pointing upwards—short-term bullish impulse possible.
* Volume: Increased slightly, but not confirming a breakout yet.
GEX & Options Insights
* PUT Support: Strongest negative NETGEX level near $78.00, showing that options market expects support here.
* CALL Resistance: Highest concentration between $88.00 - $100.00, suggesting a tough breakout level.
* IVR: 99.4, indicating high implied volatility.
* Options Flow: Calls at 18.1%, slightly bullish but still mixed sentiment.
Potential Trade Setups
* Bullish Case:
* Entry: Above $82.00 with confirmation of strength.
* Target: $88.00 - $90.00 for the first target, $100.00 for aggressive move.
* Stop Loss: Below $78.00 to cut losses early.
* Bearish Case:
* Entry: Rejection at $80.00 - $82.00 and failure to break trendline.
* Target: $75.00, then $70.00 if downside continues.
* Stop Loss: Above $85.00 if momentum shifts bullish.
📌 Final Thoughts:
PLTR is at a critical juncture—a breakout above $82.00 could trigger a bullish reversal, but failure to hold $78.00 might bring further downside. Keep an eye on volume and momentum shifts for confirmation.
📢 This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk before trading.
PALANTIR I Liquidity below 78 and OB. Target 160The liquidity cycle is not on, so I expect another pump will form soon.
Palantir Fundamentals in Brief
📍Innovative Tech & Diversified Base:
Palantir’s platforms—Foundry and Gotham—enable organizations to integrate and analyze large datasets, offering actionable insights. Their services span both government agencies and commercial enterprises, helping balance revenue risks.
📍Solid Financial Momentum:
The company’s consistent growth and its focus on long-term contracts highlight a path toward greater operational efficiency and profitability. Their commitment to multi-year engagements builds a reliable foundation for future expansion.
📍Investment Thesis:
In an era where data drives decision-making, Palantir’s cutting-edge technology positions it as a key player in digital transformation. Its resilience in adapting to market changes and a steady stream of contracts make it an attractive option for investors looking for a forward-thinking tech play.
This analysis underscores why many consider Palantir a compelling long-term investment, blending technological innovation with a strategic approach to market challenges.
Its ecosystem withing Ecosystem
What they are doing is unique, so now we might ask why other big tech companies are not doing the same. Well, here is my thesis, they nailed the specific sector.
Can Ford or Rivian be like NASDAQ:TSLA in EVs and FSD? No
Can Linux be like NASDAQ:MSFT Windows and Office? No
Can Microsoft Edge be like NASDAQ:GOOGL Chrome? No
Can AMD be like NASDAQ:NVDA ? No
Can Walmart be like NASDAQ:AMZN in E-commerce and Fulfillment? Nope
But that's not all
Peter Thiel, Palantir &PayPal co-founder, has been a mentor and major financial supporter of J.D Vance. Their relationship began around 2011 when Vance attended a talk by Thiel at Yale Law School, which inspired Vance to pivot his career away from law. Vance joined Thiel's global investment firm in 2017 and later worked at Thiel's venture capital firm, Mithril Capital. Thiel played a crucial role in Vance's political rise by donating $15 million to Vance's 2022 Senate campaign. This financial support helped Vance secure his victory. Thiel introduced Vance to former President Donald Trump, leading to Trump's endorsement of Vance for the Senate
His web of power is huge
Clark Minor, a 13-year Palantir veteran, is now RFK Jr.’s Health & Human Services Chief Information Officer.
Gregory Barbaccia, Palantir's former Head of Intelligence and Investigations, was hired as Federal Chief Information Officer
Jacob Helberg, a senior advisor to Palantir, was appointed as the Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment
Shyam Sankar, Palantir’s Chief Technology Officer is reportedly being considered for a high-level Pentagon job guiding research and development
Anthony Jancso, George Cooper and one other engineers have been associated with DOGE recruitment effort ,and they are former Palantir Forward Deployed Engineers
Greg Little, one of the first Pentagon officials to run CDAO, joined Palantir as a senior counselor in August 2023.
David Spirk, who served as chief data officer at the Pentagon and contributed to the creation of CDAO, joined Palantir as senior counselor in July 2022.
Maura Thompson, who held various logistics positions at CDAO and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is now a deployment strategist at Palantir.
Trevor Austin, who worked as a Palantir engineer early in his career, is now CDAO’s acting chief technology officer.
Will Thibeau, who worked as deployment strategist at Palantir, later did a stint at CDAO as a policy analyst.
Joseph Larson, who headed AI policy and strategy at Palantir, went on to serve as a deputy chief at CDAO.
Matthew Turpin, an advisor to Palantir, served as the director of China for the National Security Council in the first Trump White House and as senior China advisor to Trump’s then-commerce secretary
Wendy Anderson, an executive with Pentagon experience who joined the company in 2020, holds the title of senior vice president of federal and national security.
Alexander Alden, a veteran of the first Trump administration who joined Palantir in 2021. Described as a “Trump loyalist,” Alden served as a special assistant at the Pentagon from 2017 to 2018 before becoming senior director on Trump’s National Security Council, responsible for emerging technologies and defense policy.
Jamie Fly, a former aide to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Trump’s newly installed secretary of state. Fly served as a foreign and national security affairs advisor to Rubio from 2013 to 2017 and did an earlier stint in the George W. Bush administration at both the Pentagon and National Security Council. He joined Palantir in August 2023.
Geof Kahn, a Central Intelligence Agency veteran who worked on the transition team for the first Trump administration, assisting then-Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.) during his confirmation process to be CIA director. Kahn later served as senior adviser to Pompeo and the CIA’s chief operating officer. He previously spent five years as policy director for the House Intelligence Committee from 2011 to 2017. Kahn joined Palantir in January 2023.
--Palantir Federal Advisory Board Members
The Honorable Christine H. Fox - Former Acting Deputy Secretary of Defense and Former Assistant Director, Policy and Analysis, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.
General Carter F. Ham, USA (Retired) - Former Commander, United States Africa Command, and Former President and CEO of the Association of the United States Army.
The Honorable Deborah Lee James - Former Secretary of the United States Air Force.
Admiral William H. McRaven, USN (Retired) - Former Commander, United States Special Operations Command, and Former Chancellor of the University of Texas.
Vice Admiral Peter V. Neffenger, USCG (Retired) - Former Vice Commandant of the United States Coast Guard, and Former TSA Administrator, United States Department of Homeland Security.
The Honorable Jeh C. Johnson - Former Secretary of Homeland Security at the Department of Homeland Security and Counselor to Palantir.
Dr. Deborah L. Birx - Former Coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, and Former Ambassador-at-Large of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).
The Honorable Will Hurd - Former Representative of Texas' 23rd District.
General Gustave F. Perna, USA (Retired) - Former Chief Operating Officer, Operation Warp Speed; Former Commander, Army Materiel Command (AMC), U.S. Department of Defense.
Mr. Greg Simon - Former Executive Director of the White House Cancer Moonshot Task Force and the Biden Cancer Initiative, and Co-Founder of the Melanoma Research Alliance.
Im looking forward to the constructive discussion and also looking forward to the hatters. You are all welcome.
David Perk
PalantirNo change to my analysis. I am expecting price to move higher towards the 0.382 @96.47 for sub-minuette a of minor B. We don't yet have confirmation though so could technically still be the minor A wave of (4). Don't forget my turquoise count suggests that wave (4) is already over, and we're heading higher in (5). I still find this count not very likely due to the structure of how we moved off the recent bottom on 28 Feb.
In short, my primary is that we're currently in wave B with a final target of $107-$118 or even slightly higher to form a flat abc. Secondary is we need a slight low to complete minor A. Third possible outcome is that wave (4) is already over, and we've begun (5) already. Notice that every pattern I am tracking has either bottomed or is extremely close. We should be headed to the upside in very short order, if not tomorrow. MACD and RSI both support this. Let me know if my expectations are unclear.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) - Technical & Options AnalysisMarket Structure & Price Action
* PLTR is currently trading at $84.82, showing signs of a potential reversal from a previous downtrend.
* The stock found support around $78.58, aligning with a previously identified reversal zone.
* There is early bullish detection as price has broken above the descending channel, potentially signaling a shift in trend.
* Resistance at $90.97 is a key level to watch for a continued move higher.
Supply & Demand Zones
* Support Zone: $78 - $80 (Reversal zone, where buying pressure emerged)
* Resistance Zone: $85 - $92 (Potential rejection or breakout zone)
* Higher Target Zone: $100 - $105 if the bullish momentum continues
Indicator Analysis
* MACD: Showing bullish momentum, but histogram bars are flattening, suggesting consolidation before the next move.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought levels indicate potential short-term pullback before further upside.
Options Flow & Gamma Exposure (GEX)
* Call Walls: $100 (72.6%) and $105 (55.18%) indicate where significant call option resistance might occur.
* Put Walls: $75 (-47.11%) and $70 (-99.54%) suggest strong put positioning at these levels.
* IV Rank: 87.4, indicating elevated implied volatility, meaning options premiums are high.
* Options Sentiment: 24.1% call positioning suggests a slight bullish sentiment, but caution is warranted.
Trade Scenarios
Bullish Case:
* Entry: Above $85.50
* Target: $90 - $92, with extended upside to $100 - $105
* Stop-loss: Below $82
Bearish Case:
* Entry: Below $82
* Target: $78 - $75
* Stop-loss: Above $85
Conclusion
* PLTR is showing early bullish signs, but confirmation is needed with a sustained move above $85.
* Watch for a potential retest of support before a breakout.
* Options data suggests strong resistance around $100 - $105, making it a key decision point for further upside.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making trading decisions.
Palantir’s Uptrend May Be at RiskPalantir Technologies has climbed steadily since the summer, but some traders may think the run is nearing an end.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows since early August. The software company is now under that line, which may suggest its uptrend is at risk.
Second, PLTR has made lower highs while holding its February 3 low of $78.47. That descending triangle is potentially bearish.
Third, prices have failed to hold the 50-day simple moving average. Is its intermediate-term direction changing?
Fourth, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Prices also hit resistance at the 8-day EMA yesterday and MACD is dropping. Those patterns may be consistent with a short-term downtrend.
Finally, PLTR is one of the most active underliers in the options market. (It’s averaged about 1.3 million contracts per day in the last month, according to TradeStation data.) That could make some traders look to position for moves with calls and puts.
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PALANTIR: It's a buy but don't expect a rally any time soon.Palantir is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.509, MACD = -1.570, ADX = 35.869) as it's trading under the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that gives a strong buy signal every time it hits its 1D MA100. As a matter of fact, the February 19th High has been a HH for the pattern and last time the price hit that top (July 31st 2023), it entered a lengthy Accumulation period. As in today, the 1D RSI was again on a similar Bearish Divergence. Consequently we believe that every 1D MA100 test is a buy opportunity, but the breakout rally will probably take another 4-5 months to happen. Aim for the 1.786 Fibonacci extension (TP = 200.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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PLTR Technical Analysis – Reversal in Progress?Market Structure & Key Levels
* Current Price: $90.60
* Support: $84.40, $78.58
* Resistance: $95, $100
PLTR is showing bullish momentum after bouncing off key support near $84.40. The price action has shifted, breaking multiple Change of Character (ChoCH) levels to the upside, signaling a potential reversal.
Reversal Zone Analysis
PLTR has rebounded from the liquidity zone and is approaching a potential resistance area between $90 - $95. If price holds above $90, a move toward $95 and possibly $100 is likely.
Options & GEX Analysis
* IVR: 77.2
* IVx Avg: 82.5
* GEX: Green (indicating bullish positioning)
* Put Walls: $80, $75, $70
* Call Walls: $95, $100
Options flow suggests that PLTR has strong put support at $80, while gamma resistance lies at $95-$100, making it a key area to watch for rejection or breakout.
Trading Plan & Strategy
Bullish Scenario (Preferred)
* Entry: Above $90 with volume confirmation
* Target: $95, then $100
* Stop-Loss: Below $88
Bearish Scenario (Less Likely)
* Entry: If price rejects at $95
* Target: $85
* Stop-Loss: Above $95
Options Trade Idea
* Bull Call Spread: Buy $90 Calls, Sell $100 Calls (April Expiry)
* Credit Put Spread: Sell $85 Puts, Buy $80 Puts
Final Thoughts
PLTR appears to be regaining momentum, but $95 is a key test level. If price sustains above it, expect continuation toward $100. Otherwise, a rejection may bring a retrace toward $85. Watch volume and option flow to confirm direction.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
The Palantir of tradingA Palantir, if you did not know, is otherwise known as a crystal ball; a seeing stone. It was what Saruman used in Lord of the Rings to "see" and that ultimately led to his corruption by Sauron. I've seen this stock corrupt the career of aspiring traders...
I was asked my advice on Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR . I don't like to give "advice" on what for other traders to do... but I will say what I have done, what I am doing, and tell you a story that hopefully help traders be better.
I bought PLTR at an average price of about $9/share. Great! Not really, it was July 2022, and I bagheld all the way down to $6: a -33% unrealized loss over about a year of time. But what I had done was only purchased 200 shares. My position was relatively small; it didn't bother me. I slept just fine.
I was encouraged to buy PLTR by a good trading buddy. We would talk and trade every day for years since the pandemic. He was super bullish on this stock and I really bought it and held it in solidarity with my friend.
Then in May 2023 the stock finally took off. I had my shares and my friend traded PLTR options. However, they were short duration options. In the May - August rally he multiplied his account many times. More money than he had ever had in his young life. Things were going great. He was finally RIGHT! But then...
The stock stopped moving. Unfortunately, my friend had taken his success and tried to repeat it. Options need movement. PLTR did not move enough. He lost it all. He left our group and quit trading altogether...
...just before the August 2024 rally.
If you like the company, OWN THE SHARES
Since the pandemic I have tried my best to educate traders that the short term, gambler's mentality inherent in options is a path to disaster for the vast majority of traders. Patience. It's hard but it pays.
I still have my shares. They are up big. They are pulling back, sure. But I don't care. I was small, I have a very low buy price, and I can just wait.
Now that PLTR has moved though... inevitably people want it. Since the start of the year I've been asked repeatedly about buying it. What I tell people is that any tech or volatile stock like this WILL have AT LEAST a -50% (usually more) pullback. Be patient. I do not get interested until that happens. Even then it still may get even cheaper.
Be patient.
Trade wisely.
Palantir (PLTR) Approaching Critical Levels!📊 Technical Analysis (TA):
1. Trend & Structure:
* PLTR is in a strong downtrend, confirmed by multiple Break of Structure (BOS) signals.
* Change of Character (ChoCH) attempts have failed, reinforcing bearish control.
* Key Resistance: ~90-95 (supply zone)
* Support Zone: ~78-80 (high liquidity demand zone)
2. Indicators:
* MACD & Stochastics indicate weakness, signaling further downside potential.
* Volume remains high on selling pressure, further validating the downtrend.
🔹 GEX & Options Flow:
1. Call Walls (Resistance) 🚧
* 100-105: Heavy resistance, unlikely to be breached in the near term.
* 120: Major CALL wall, a strong gamma resistance.
2. Put Walls (Support) 🛑
* 75: Significant put positioning, acting as short-term support.
* 70: Highest negative NETGEX, meaning a strong breakdown could accelerate to this level.
3. IV Rank & Skew:
* IVR 82.7, signaling high implied volatility.
* IV skew heavily favors puts, suggesting continued bearish sentiment.
* Calls only 21.5%, confirming put dominance.
📌 Trading Plan & Suggestions:
* Bullish Scenario:
* A reclaim above 85-90 could push PLTR toward 95-100.
* Calls or spreads with April expiry could benefit from a bounce.
* Bearish Scenario:
* A breakdown below 78-80 could send PLTR toward 70-75, leading to strong put activity.
* Ideal Put Play: Buy March-April 80P or 75P targeting 70-75.
⚠️ Key Warning: If PLTR holds 80, we might see a sharp bounce due to short covering.
🔥 Conclusion: PLTR at a Crossroad – Major Move Incoming!
PLTR is hovering near key liquidity zones, with options flow favoring downside. The next few sessions will be crucial in determining direction. If it fails to hold 78-80, expect further selling pressure. Watch for reaction levels before entering trades. 🚀📉
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Palantir: Bullish Outlook Despite Recent DeclinePalantir has dropped ~31% in 9 days due to market volatility and defense spending concerns. However, strong fundamentals suggest a bullish rebound.
❓Why Palantir Can Rebound
✅ AI Leadership – Palantir’s platforms (Gotham, Foundry, Apollo) dominate AI-driven data analytics. The AI Platform (AIP) enhances adoption.
✅ Strong Financials – Revenue surged from $742.6M (2019) to $2.86B (2023), with Q4 2024 net income at $165M.
✅ Growing Commercial Sector – U.S. commercial revenue up 43% YoY, reducing reliance on government contracts.
💡Recent Developments:
AI & National Security – CEO Karp’s insights on AI’s role in global security.
Industry Recognition – Palantir experience is highly valued in tech.
Defense Contracts – Competing for Pentagon AI-driven contracts.
With innovation, strong financials, and expanding market reach, Palantir is well-positioned to reclaim its highs and beyond. 🚀
PLTR at a Key Turning Point – Reversal or Breakdown? Technical Analysis (TA) – Key Price Action Insights
* Trend: PLTR has been in a clear downtrend, trading within a descending channel. A breakout above this structure could signal a reversal.
* Reversal Zone: The stock is testing a critical resistance zone around $85-$90, which aligns with the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC).
* Support Levels:
* $80: Key short-term support; failure to hold could send price towards $75-$72.
* $72: Strong historical support—a breakdown here could accelerate selling pressure.
* Resistance Levels:
* $90: First major upside level where a rejection is likely.
* $100-$105: Strong supply zone and potential breakout confirmation area.
Indicators:
* MACD: Recently crossed bullish, indicating possible momentum shift.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought, suggesting a possible pullback before continuation.
GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* $90 (72.6% Wall): Heavy call positioning here could act as a major resistance.
* $100-$105: Next key call walls—if PLTR can clear these, a strong gamma squeeze could take it towards $120.
* Put Support:
* $80: Highest negative NetGEX level, which aligns with dealer positioning to support price.
* $75-$72: Strong put walls—if these break, expect dealers to hedge by selling stock, increasing downside pressure.
* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 71.4 – High implied volatility means options are expensive.
* Options Positioning: Calls 26.4% → Mixed sentiment, slightly bullish bias.
Trading Plan & Strategy
🔹 Bullish Scenario: If PLTR holds above $85 and breaks $90, it could trigger a gamma squeeze toward $100-$105. A daily close above $105 could lead to $120+ in the mid-term.
🔻 Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold $80 could trigger dealer hedging, leading to a breakdown toward $75-$72.
Final Thoughts & Suggestions
* Options Traders: Consider selling puts at $80 or a bull call spread if bullish. For bearish setups, a bear put spread targeting $75 makes sense.
* Equity Traders: Look for confirmation at $90 for a bullish entry or wait for a retest at $80-$75 for better risk-reward.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly. 🚀📉
PLTRPLTR hit the 1.0 I have been waiting for and looks primed for a move higher. The main question I am asking myself, is this just wave A, or is it all of wave (4). We've hit the target area for wave (4), but it was very short. Wave (2) was long, so I expect (4) to be short, but damn, talk about SHORT lol. This consolidation has lasted all of 9 days (7 trading days). This next move higher will tell us the answers we seek based upon the structure that it takes on. If it appears corrective in nature, then it is likely wave B carving itself out. Should it be impulsive in nature, then we know that (4) was short, and we're within wave (5) already. Either way I see this though, we should be moving up very soon if not already starting to.
What’s Driving PLTR’s Recent Rally, and What’s Next?What’s Driving PLTR’s Recent Rally, and What’s Next?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has delivered a remarkable performance, surprising many investors and traders with its rapid ascent.
The stock surged from approximately $64 on December 20, 2024, to a peak of around $118 on February 11, 2025—an impressive 89% gain in less than two months.
This substantial rally raises an important question: Is PLTR at a critical turning point?
A key technical consideration is whether the stock will retrace to fill the $15 gap visible on the chart. Historically, gaps often get filled, but strong momentum can sometimes defy this pattern.
Traders and investors should closely monitor price action, volume trends, and any fundamental catalysts that could either sustain the uptrend or trigger a pullback.
As always, exercise caution and apply sound risk management strategies when trading.
📊 My chart analysis tells the story—trade wisely.