Roche Strengthens Its Bet Against the “Superbug”By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Zosurabalpin: A New Hope Against Antimicrobial Resistance
Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (SWX: ROG) has just taken a major step forward in the fight against bacterial resistance: its new antibiotic zosurabalpin is entering Phase 3 clinical trials. The compound targets acinetobacter baumannii, a highly resistant Gram-negative bacterium that causes serious infections such as pneumonia and sepsis, with mortality rates ranging from 40% to 60%, according to Larry Tsai, Chief Medical Officer at Genentech, Roche’s U.S. subsidiary.
The clinical trial is set to begin in late 2025 or early 2026, involving approximately 400 patients across more than 100 international sites. If successful, zosurabalpin would become the first new class of antibiotics targeting Gram-negative bacteria in over 50 years, marking a historic milestone in pharmaceutical development.
Strategic Return to the Antibiotics Arena
After stepping away from antibiotic research for several years, Roche re-entered the field in the past decade, just as the WHO warned of the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance, which could lead to up to 10 million deaths annually by 2050. This move underlines Roche’s renewed commitment to innovation in critical areas of global health.
Economic Context and Market Position
So far in 2025, Roche has delivered mixed financial results. In its first-quarter report, revenue grew 2% year-on-year, driven by its diagnostics division, while its oncology segment remains solid. However, margin pressures persist, and the biotech landscape remains fiercely competitive.
On the stock market, Roche shares have remained relatively stable around 250 Swiss francs, with investors showing caution toward the company’s pace of innovation in the post-pandemic era. The move to Phase 3 for zosurabalpin may shift that perception and position Roche as a pioneer in a long-overlooked segment of the pharmaceutical industry: next-generation antibiotics.
Technical Analysis
The stock has been trading within a range between 249.6 and 303.2 francs, peaking at 323.6 francs in late March, followed by a sharp correction that found support at 244 francs in early April. The current point of control lies slightly below the midpoint of the range at 263 francs. The RSI sits at 49.11%, indicating a relatively balanced momentum. Moving average crossovers suggest a potential price correction, as the 200-day average recently crossed below the 50-day average.
Conclusion
Roche’s latest advance could not only save thousands of lives but also restore the company’s leadership in the fight against infectious diseases. If all goes according to plan, zosurabalpin could be available before 2030, ushering in a new era in modern medicine.
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RHO5 trade ideas
Roche vs. Novo Nordisk: Who will suffer the Weight Loss?Roche (ticker: ROG.SW) is losing ground on the stock due to the side effects of its new weight loss pill, CT-996, which is still in the testing phase. After a rally that boosted its shares 40% between May and September, the Swiss drugmaker has seen an 11% drop in its shares in September alone, including a decline of up to 6.75% on the U.S. stock market.
The weight-loss drug market, driven by the success of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic (ticker: NVO), is projected to reach $130 billion annually by the end of the decade. However, Roche faces challenges following trials of CT-996, where five out of six patients suffered nausea and one in six had “chronic reflux,” which has affected its competitiveness. Despite these adverse results, Manu Chakravarthy, director of product development for Roche's cardiovascular, renal and metabolism division, believes the trials are still encouraging and plans to continue with larger clinical studies to determine tolerability and improve the drug's profile.
Comparing the two companies' charts, Roche showed significant progress versus Novo Nordisk through July 31. However, after a failed attempt to break above its highs on September 2, Roche is currently in a support zone, having broken downward from the bullish channel it had held since May. In contrast, Novo Nordisk lost positions from June 24 until August 7, at which point it began to recover towards the middle of its long-term range. Currently, Roche could pull back to 214 Swiss francs if its downtrend continues. On the other hand, Novo Nordisk remains in an intermediate trading zone around $134, with a possible uptrend in the short term.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Roche Analysis 6/26DISCLOSURE: as of 6/26 I have no open position in SIX:RO
Roche is a Swiss based pharmaceutical conglomerate with a diverse range of operations and brands. The company has a long history of profitability and high returns on investment.
Management Effectiveness: Roche has been around since 1896 and has had consistent growth over the economic cycles. Return on equity has been averaging 40% and although margins have compressed in recent years the company remains highly profitable and in a stable leverage position.
Valuation: With a price to earnings of 20 and price to cash flow of 15 if looks potentially undervalued. I like companies that have a return on equity double that of the price to earnings, and that rule of thumb is met in this case.
Summary: Roche looks like a quality company to potentially take some profits and diversify from my NASDAQ:SIGA position. However, for now it will stay on the watch list. I will be looking at OANDA:USDCHF as well as the valuation metrics I mentioned above.
Here on my macroeconomic and current research shortlist watchlists:
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Thanks for reading, have a good one
Roche: Ready for 120% Growth?We're trying something with Roche here, where we think that we are currently in Wave (5), having recently completed Wave (4). This assessment is better visualized on the daily chart. Hence, we should maintain the 61.8% level for this Wave 4. Anything below would statistically be too low, while above, we aim at least to revisit the old high, up to an Wave 5 extension. This scenario would place us at a level of $552, marking a 120% increase from our entry point, with a stop-loss set at 6.5%, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of 18.65%, which is phenomenal if it materializes. We believe the risk-reward ratio is so favorable that we must proceed with this trade. As long as we don't fall below the invalidation zone, i.e., the level of Wave (1), we continue to anticipate that Wave 4 holds. As mentioned, it wouldn't make sense for us to fall below the 61.8% level for Wave (4), as statistically, there's little to gain beyond that point.
Hold it like a rock - Roche, what an opportunity.Hi, 1PERCENT here.
Roche Holding, a Swiss multinational biopharma company. It is like the Apple of biopharma.
There were only 3 pull backs greater than 30% in the history of the stock.
2002 ~ 2003: -45.33%
2006 ~ 2011: -52.40%
2014 ~ 2018: -30.24%
2022 ~ present: -44.89%
It is at the support zone that initiated the +95% move up from 2018 to 2022, and also is testing the trendline connecting the lows in 2003 and 2011.
If you live in the US, you might want to have some exposure to Swiss assets (CHF or stocks) and Gold & silver.
The US dollar is losing value against the Swiss Francs in the long term.
Otherwise, Roche stock price must hold up at the current support zone , otherwise, we are open for a 30+% drop to the next support zone, which will be of course, an absolute bargain.
Also, it looks like the previous turnovers from the lows were always accompanied by the MA36 and MA12 crossing (MA12 over MA36)
However, we do not have it here yet. So, let's keep an eye on it.
That's it.
1PERCENT
Roche HoldingsThis is one of those companies you can't afford not to look into. Roche is one of the world's largest biotech companies and a global leader in pharmaceuticals and diagnostics. This leading position translates to strong market share, revenue, and profitability. The company operates across various segments like oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and diagnostics, reducing dependence on any single market or product. This diversification provides stability and growth potential.
Roche boasts a strong balance sheet with low debt and substantial cash reserves, providing financial flexibility for future investments and growth initiatives. It has a track record of consistent dividend payments and increases, appealing to investors seeking income.
Strong fundamentals and attractive technicals have brought Roche to our attention. We are looking at entry when the market opens.
Long Term Weekly Trend holds for nowTrend started in 2012 held during the week. If the price accumulates at the current level and we breakout to the upside, I will watch the marked zones of interest and see how the price reacts.
If we breakout to the down side, I will look for interesting price levels and keep an eye on the trend established in 2003.
As of now I am long.
Roche Holding AG bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the German company F. Hoffmann-La Roche AG (ROG.vx). Roche is a Swiss multinational healthcare company that operates worldwide under two divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Its holding company, Roche Holding AG, has shares listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange. Roche is the fifth largest pharmaceutical company in the world by revenue and the leading provider of cancer treatments globally. The Triangle broke through the resistance line on 07/09/2022, if the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 10 days towards 333.65 CHF. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 311.75 CHF if you decide to enter this position.
Roche announced the launch of the Digital LightCycler System, Roche’s first digital polymerase chain reaction (PCR) system. This next-generation system detects disease and is designed to accurately quantify trace amounts of specific DNA and RNA targets not typically detectable by conventional PCR methods.
The Digital LightCycler System will allow clinical researchers to divide DNA and RNA from an already extracted clinical sample into as many as 100,000 microscopic individual reactions. The system can then perform PCR and produce highly sophisticated data analysis on the results.
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Roche reversalRoche making higher lows inside a descending broadening wedgem, while showing signs of accumulation with a sell wall at 326.85$. The bullish engulfing candles on Jan 11 and the Marubozu on Feb 4 show that the demand for this asset is high at the previous Peak back in December 2014. The fact that there is also MACD hidden bullish divergence on the daily and the monthly strengthens the argument for a reversal and a break out of this structure in the coming weeks or months.
Roche Holding - ROG AnalysisThe market is bullish and the idea is to invest in the Market direction.
Fundamental Analysis Info:
Britain is in talks with Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG (ROG.S) to buy an accurate COVID-19 antibody test, following the lead of the European Union and United States, which had already given preliminary approval to the tests.