RIVN trade ideas
Rivian Update: I love it when a plan comes togetherAs the title suggests, I love it when things work out lol. We have received some key indicators the last couple days suggesting my count is correct. For instance, the 3min MACD did NOT make a new high today despite it making a new high on the 1Hr chart. The previous high on the 3min MACD was with-in my wave iii count, right where it is supposed to be. That is a good indicator this move up is still wave 1 of (3). Also, the 1HR MACD is starting to curl down which is another indicator this move is coming to an end. I'm not saying this move up is done, only that if it isn't done already, it will be soon. I can count a 5-wave move for what I am calling our mini-wave 5 though, so this thing could easily start it's retrace tomorrow. That being said, it ain't over till it's over and we could continue to extend out to the 2.618 which is the most common endpoint for extensions. As most of my long-term followers know, I don't predict time as corrective waves can chop forever. One thing to remember though, if this is indeed wave (3), then retraces should be short due to the momentum of moving higher/being in the strongest portion of the count.
I could be one degree off technically and this could be the start of wave 3 of (3) just due to the shear strength of the move up. As I stated earlier though, I would have expected the MACD to show more strength if that was the case.
On the chart I have a target box for wave 2. I know it is a big box, but that is because the range in which we can retrace is great. Normally I would want us to at least hit the 0.618 retracement fib, but since we are in wave (3) it could easily only drop to the 0.382 retracement fib. Until I have the A-B wave's I cannot make a narrowed target. Once price carves them out, I will supply an update with that info. Due to the strength of the current wave though, wave 2 could literally be carved out with-in one pre-market session. I am not anticipating this, but something y'all should be aware of. Good luck everyone!
Here is the 3min chart with the micro labels.
P.S: Notice how all the sudden there is nothing but glowing news coming out for Rivian? AFTER I had already forecasted this move higher...food for thought.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: $RIVN) Meteoric Rise
Rivian (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) has been a roller coaster since its initial public offering (IPO) in late 2021. Except it's only been one part of the roller coaster ride: the part where it sharply drops. Rivian has shed roughly 80% of its value since its IPO, but as the company heads into 2024 with some momentum, is the time finally right for investors to jump back in?
Fundamentals Analysis
New batteries
Let's talk about something else that could move the needle for Rivian investors: its new battery packs. Recently its chief financial officer, Claire McDonough, detailed a couple of interesting battery developments.
Rivian is introducing a standard battery pack that lowers the selling price of R1 vehicles from roughly $78,000 down to $70,000, opening up a larger addressable market. But it also teased a new battery that's simpler to manufacture. The simpler battery is expected to remove thousands of dollars of costs from production.
That's perfect timing for a company that has its sights set on becoming gross-profit positive in 2024 and has already made substantial progress in cutting its loss per vehicle. In fact, its gross profit per vehicle improved by $2,000 sequentially in the third quarter.
Better yet, Rivian will begin construction of its Georgia plant in early 2024, which will set the stage to roll out its new R2 vehicles by 2026. Those vehicles are set to sell for roughly $30,000 less than its R1 vehicles, broadening its target market.
Is Rivian a Buy?
NASDAQ:RIVN is truly making improvements in a lot of areas, including reducing its cash crunch, expanding its options to sell delivery vans, and setting the stage for new vehicles and new battery packs. And it hasn't had to deal with tense labor negotiations because its sole factory is not unionized. Remember that Ford and GM are busy offsetting billions in cost increases from their new United Auto Workers contracts.
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) is trading above the 50, 100 & 200-day Moving Averages Respectively, indicating continual of the current trend.
RIVIAN about to test the breakout of the trendUpcoming days for the NASDAQ:RIVN will be crucial as it will be testing out the breakout phase
Putting RIVN on watchWatching RIVN closely to see which direction it takes. This could be a tradeable range with tight stops.
Rivian Update: Count is on trackToday was a good day. Hopefully others were able to take advantage of Rivian's moves. Keep in mind this is just the beginning. The next target I have, as you can see by my box, is $20.91-$21.64. Price could easily extend beyond that point but that is the "standard" ending for what I am calling wave 1 of (3). If price does extend out, then the most likely next ending would be the 2.618 fib extension @ $23.89. You can't see it on here I don't think, but the 2.618 is right by where my two trend lines intersect. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves though and remain conservative as to keep the profits we have already made.
From where we are now It seems we have almost finished this micro (i) of v. To me, the micro's look as if it is in its last mini-wave 4&5 of i. We are also approaching my trend line and will most likely bounce down off of that IF we reach it. That would make a good spot to end the mini-wave i and start our retrace for ii. Until we finish mini-wave i and have started wave ii I'm not going to try and guess where we will retrace to.
Technically according to EWT rules we can retrace all the way to $17.77 and still remain a valid count. Also, something else to keep in mind, we made a new high today and almost have a 5-wave structure moving up. This could, technically speaking, be ALL of wave v of 1. I don't think either are the case, but something to keep in the back of your mind to be ready for any scenario.
I work tomorrow but will update as able. Good luck everyone!!
P.S: In case you missed it, I have exited ALL option positions. I have still retained my shares as I don't have to worry about decay / added volatility. I am not bearish as you can tell, I just wanted to capture their profits. When we retrace, I will buy more options and post them on here as always.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update: 12/12/23I don't have time to go to far in depth tonight. Suffice to say I believe I was one degree off and we should be headed back up tomorrow. We bounced off my bottom trend line to the cent on the 3min timeframe, raised on pos div so it has been a healthy raise, and the 1Hr MACD has began to curl up and is in need of a reset. These things are just a couple that give me confidence in the count. Tomorrow should hopefully bring some clarity on the matter.
The target area I am watching for us to hit on the next ascent is around the $20-$22 range. Would be awesome to hit that tomorrow but highly doubtful. With the fed meeting you just never know though. Ideally I would like us to hit it by EOW.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update: Stock Pundits are a JOKEI saw an article earlier that literally said Rivian is getting a bump from Tesla's cyber truck. I just thought to myself, this guy needs to be fired. I don't usually get worked up but how lazy can you be. That has nothing to do with why Rivian stock is rising. TESLA didn't even raise from it as it's been stagnant for almost a month now. What a joke. I hope he/she reads this and is disappointed in themselves for the extremely lazy piece of "work" they decided to put out for people to waste their time reading. Anyway, on to what matters...the ACTUAL reasons Rivian is raising.
I have been tracking Rivian for quite some time now, and I would argue I know it better then I know the Tesla chart. I have spent HOURS on Tesla too. Rivian, however, is so textbook to this point it's not even funny. If you are a long-time follower of me, you would know I started out posting on Rivian some time ago and have used it since to hone my skills. Well April of this year, Rivian made a very distinctive move and created it's forever bottom as long as the company remains to be operated wisely. @sriaishu traded that move with me and can also vouch I did indeed call it before it happened. After we completed that impulsive 5-wave move up for wave (1), we began a corrective 3-wave move down in the form of an ABC. Since that bottom we have rallied up to almost 30% and hit $19.55 before slightly retracing. According to my primary count we just finished wave iv and should start to move up for wave v of (iii). It is possible we get OML, but it should be slight if we do.
MACD made a new high on ALL the micros, is on positive divergence, and the 1HR potentially changing direction (creating another higher low) all say we should head up. The count/structure suggests we should head up and many other signals are pointing higher, and soon. I suspect the next move up should target closer to the 1.618 fib @ $20.35 or possibly even extend past it. Idk if y'all read some of these "articles" out there but take note of how they have changed their tune on Rivian's stock as of late. As of now I currently have 250 shares around $15 and 60 calls. I will most likely sell all calls on the next big move higher to cash in those profits and then rebuy new contracts on the retrace. I will hold the shares for now and decide later when to sell them. I'm off tomorrow and will be watching. Good luck everyone, I hope you are capitalizing on Rivian.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RiVN: $38 bidding at $18levelsfor an ev to take a piece of tesla ... this requires funding through depression of shares where proceeds shall be used for campaign and building a community that will create its own BRAND
reserve 50% of fund at $3 as insurannce when it emulates NiKOLA back in the day
Rivian Update: POWER of EWT on FULL display todayWell, today was satisfying to say the least. I have been calling on a rise to start for a while now, and today I believe we have finally started that next big move higher. I have tried to be open about my limited experience comparatively and my need to improve on timing. I hope you all take that to heart when reading these posts that I create. I also want to thank Jesus for giving me the ability to predict price movements as I do. Without Him I couldn't do this! I only hope you all allow Him into your hearts and witness His blessings for yourselves. 🙏
As you notice on the chart, I again have multiple different colored labels. Per the usual, white=Primary, turquoise=1st ALT, orange=2nd ALT. My primary is allowing for a slight overlap in pricing with one stipulation. It HAS to go up from here. If it makes another low below $18.27 then my 2nd ALT becomes my primary. I know some of you are thinking, What about the 1st ALT? If price drops below $18.27, then that would cause price to overlap yet again, and I won't replace an overlapping count with another. That would break it down to these two options imo--#1: 2nd ALT suggesting we are in yet another wave 2 for another extension, #2: price/the count are breaking down.
The arguments for my primary are in abundance. The 3min MACD made a new high since we bottomed on 10 Nov., ALL smaller timeframe and daily/weekly MACD's are pointing up, P/C ratio=0.395, Friday's and now today's impulsivity/strength etc. etc. Honestly, I could keep going lol. The 1Hr MACD hasn't pierced the red line I made yet though. This could signify extensions being made, just plain old complexity increasing, or potentially even the count starting to fracture/fail. Yes, that did escalate quickly! lol, I don't think price is starting to fail at this time...but something we need to watch out for, nonetheless.
2nd ALT suggests I am one degree off, and we have already completed our wave iii/iv and should move higher for wave v. The difference between my primary and 1st ALT will be very small and hard to distinguish until a little later in the count. So, unless we get clarity in price action or MACD I will most likely be tracking both of these counts for a while. Attached below is my 4HR chart showing a zoomed out big picture outlook, and a 3min chart as well showing how high MACD went today along with the micro price action. Tomorrow I am off and will be watching price action. If warranted I will make updates throughout the day.
3min chart
4HR chart
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
P.S: Who loves EWT???!!!!
Rivian Stock Surged Today: Here's Why It Could Keep SoaringRivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock is trading above its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating an upward trend. The 10-day EMA is acting as a dynamic support level, while the 50-day EMA is acting as a long-term trend line.
The stock is also above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a bullish sign. However, the stock is below its 100-day EMA and SMA, which could act as resistance levels in the future. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 58.7, which is neither overbought nor oversold.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is positive and above its signal line, which is a bullish sign.
Rivian is also trading above its pivot point of $17.76, which is a bullish sign. The next resistance levels are at $18.69, $19.35, and $20.28. The next support levels are at $17.10, $16.17, and $15.51.
Rivian stock is in a strong uptrend and has positive momentum. However, some of the oscillators are indicating that the stock is overbought and could face a correction in the near term.
Rivian Update: Finally on our way higher?We closed out Friday very well with a $1.27 / +7.58% in retained Market cap growth. Don't get me wrong we could give some of that up tomorrow, but I believe we should be in wave 3 of iii right now so to sputter out this early would be worrisome. Not to mention we haven't even breached the wave 1 of iii high. We need to breach wave 1 by enough that it gives room for a wave 4 retrace. Ideally, I would like us to hit the 1.382 @ $19.60 or even extend higher before we have our next retrace.
Notice the red line on the MACD. I want us to breach this line which would be another indicator we are in fact in wave 3 of iii. Not required but typically something you should see. Hopefully tomorrow is a continuation of Friday and we jump at least another $1. Once I feel we start to get close to a local top I am going to sell most of my calls. I forgot to mention to y'all, on Friday, I sold 5 of my calls that expire 15 Dec. to capture some profits. Good luck y'all!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RivianRivian changed the pickup truck industry when it launched the Rivian R1T in 2018. The company is known for producing quality electric pickups which evolved into the R1S. The company's books are not attractive but the vision and mission of the company are.
The share price has fallen far from its IPO price of $ 78 and it is showing signs of a bottom. The EV space is very competitive and Rivian is in a man-eat-man industry. Where you either make it, collaborate, or file for bankruptcy and get acquired.
It will be added to our portfolio. Waiting for the price to fall slightly but the stock is heavily discounted at the current price.
Rivian Update--11/28Today we hit a little over the 0.382 and then dropped for the micro wave 2. Then started to raise towards the 1.0 for micro 3. I would ideally like to see us hit the 1.0, drop to the 0.786 for micro wave 4 then back up around the 1.382 to finish the larger wave 3. Tesla appears to finally be moving higher. Let's hope it drags Rivian along with it to kick start its run.
I work the next 2 days but will update as able. Good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVIAN Potential triple bullish break-out ahead. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) remained supported within the (green) Higher Lows Zone and on a significant Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI (in the form of a Channel Up). This is an early bullish sentiment signal but the real technical catalyst is right ahead.
That is the Triple Resistance zone consisting of the Inner Lower Highs trend-line as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a strong bullish combo signal if broken but in our personal opinion breaking and closing a 1D candle above the Inner Lower Highs will suffice. If successful, we will target $21.00 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which would make a Lower High at the top of the 4-month Bearish Megaphone (the 0.618 Fib was where the previous Lower High was formed).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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Rivian Update--11/21This will be a short update tonight. Today we fell perfectly according to the ALT count and have been carving out the final 4-5's to most likely drop to the 0.786 fib retracement @ $15.65. This is not a requirement, just a prediction. We may have even finished carving these out and head up tomorrow. If we do take off, I will make new fibs at that point and time. We made a new low on positive div today in the micros and the larger timeframes look ready to rise as well. Either way, we should be rising very soon. Rivian is running out of excuses not to lift off. That is what stocks do though, they can confuse and frustrate you to the point of forcing you to exit your pos. before the big move. For now, I remain patient and will see what happens in the next couple days.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/20Lately it seems to me, Rivian just doesn't feel much like cooperating. It's overall following the path one would assume, but it just isn't quite normal. Maybe Tesla is having an outsized effect on it as some have suggested, maybe these are the first clues we're getting showcasing trader sentiment shifting back to a bearish bias in the markets, or maybe it's just being stubborn and doing what markets do best...confusing people.
I have an ALT (turquoise labels/yellow box) placed on the chart which shows this could all still be part of wave (ii). If that is the case, we will either make another marginal high or just fall from this area down to the yellow box. This move up from $15.93 just doesn't seem to be impulsive. Started out looking great, but then price just kind of sputtered out. I would also expect MACD to be rising with much more strength, as of right now, the micros are on neg div.
If this thing is to remain impulsive then it needs to start raising with much more strength and soon. Both the MACD and price. The count is there, its complete, all it needs is volume and the right catalyst. Everyone also assumes that Tesla is what props Rivian up. What if, at this current time, Tesla is the one holding Rivian back? Food for thought. What I would like to see, within the next day or two, is price start to head up or even tag my next target starting at $18.70 with "clear impulsivity" . Like I said before, all the ingredients are there, say one. Good luck everyone!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/16Looks to me as if all systems are ready to push forward. Since we haven't breached the previous high there is always the chance, we make another low. With the way price reacted in my box along with the structure into the target makes me believe we should start up tomorrow.
My expected path is on the chart. I left the blue fibs and the wave (ii) box in there in case we make another low y'all can have it as a reference. I'm off tomorrow and will update as able. This count is very similar to my Tesla count if y'all follow those posts. Hopefully tomorrow is good to us and we start our next move up.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/14Today Rivian extended almost up to the 3.618 which is a somewhat common endpoint for an impulsive wave to extend to as I alluded to this morning in my update. I have labeled an abc for the wave 2 retrace but that could be off by a degree. The box I have marked would not change, however.
I would not be surprised if we just take off tomorrow and don't make another low though. The strength we should have with this move up will be like that of Tesla in that it won't give many opportunities for entry. Another possibility is we start red tomorrow so some can take some profits, or those who are scared can minimize losses. After which the impulsive primary trend up should resume.
I plan on buying more shares and most likely more calls if we get a good wave 2 retrace. Good luck y'all!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update--11/12This will be a quick update because my thoughts on Rivian are still unchanged. Sometimes it can be hard to remain objective on a count that you have put so much time and effort into. I try to always check that at the door. Partly because I know so many people read my posts but also because I'm putting my own money on the line lol.
We are trading on positive divergence on EVERY time frame. The P/C ratio went from 0.37-0.56 Friday. We bounced literally 1 penny from my 1.382 fib line and have also been respecting the 0.786 fib retracement. Structurally this thing is cooked. There are just too many ways supporting this thing to go through the roof soon. Don't get me wrong, looking at the micros it looks as if it could maybe use another low, but they can be very deceiving. I've touched on that a few times and the same reason you hear me say things like "big count is king".
Once we start to move up, I will make some new fibs to the upside. Rather that be tomorrow or sometime this week idk. For now, I predict we will move up to the low $20's fairly shortly after we start upon that path as an initial target before any decent retrace. This will be the start of wave III of (I) after all.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
