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SMCI trade ideas

SMCI Approaching Key Reversal Zone – Breakout or More Downside?Technical Analysis (TA): 1. Trend & Structure: * SMCI has been in a strong downtrend, marked by multiple Break of Structure (BOS) signals. * A Change of Character (ChoCH) has occurred, hinting at a potential reversal if confirmed. * Resistance: ~43 (Call Resistance), 57-60 (Major Supply Zone). * Support: ~35-38 (Demand Zone & Highest Negative NETGEX). 2. Reversal Zone: * The 35-38 range is a key demand area where buyers have previously stepped in. * If SMCI holds above 38, it has potential to test 43 before further upside. * A failure to hold 38 could see retesting 35 or lower. 3. Indicators: * MACD: Neutral, with potential for a bullish cross. * Stochastic RSI: Oversold, signaling possible upward momentum. * Volume: Increased buying near the 38 level suggests accumulation. Options GEX & Trade Setup: 1. Call Walls (Resistance): * 43 – First resistance where price may stall. * 57-60 – If price clears 43, gamma resistance intensifies. 2. Put Walls (Support): * 38 – Highest negative NETGEX support, critical for reversal. * 35 – 2nd major Put Wall; a break here could accelerate downside. 3. Option Trade Suggestions: * Bullish Play: If price holds above 38 and starts breaking 40, consider April 40C or 45C targeting 43-45. * Bearish Play: If SMCI breaks below 38 with weakness, consider March-April 35P targeting 35 or lower. Thoughts & Conclusion: SMCI is at a critical decision point around 38. If it reclaims 40, it could push toward 43-45, but failure to hold 38 could send it lower to 35. Traders should wait for confirmation of either a breakout or breakdown before committing to a trade. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by BullBearInsights
SMCI/USD – 30-Min Long Trade Setup!📌 🚀 🔹 Asset: SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.) 🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart 🔹 Setup Type: Bullish Reversal Trade 📌 Trade Plan (Long Position) ✅ Entry Zone: Above $36.07 (Breakout Confirmation) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $33.81 (Invalidation Level) 🎯 Take Profit Targets: 📌 TP1: $39.62 (First Resistance Level) 📌 TP2: $43.63 (Extended Bullish Move) 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation 📉 Risk (SL Distance): $36.07 - $33.81 = $2.26 risk per share 📈 Reward to TP1: $39.62 - $36.07 = $3.55 (1:1.6 R/R) 📈 Reward to TP2: $43.63 - $36.07 = $7.56 (1:3.3 R/R) 🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy 📌 Falling Wedge Breakout: Price has broken out of a falling wedge, a strong bullish reversal pattern. 📌 Support Rejection: The price tested $36.07 support and showed buying pressure. 📌 Volume Confirmation Needed: Ensure high buying volume when price holds above $36.07 to confirm bullish momentum. 📌 Momentum Shift Expected: If price remains above $36.07, it could push toward $39.62, and further to $43.63. 📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels 🟢 $33.81 – Stop-Loss / Support Level 🟡 $36.07 – Breakout Level / Long Entry 🔴 $39.62 – First Resistance / TP1 🔴 $43.63 – Final Target / TP2 📉 Trade Execution & Risk Management 📊 Volume Confirmation: Ensure high buying volume above $36.07 before entering. 📉 Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to entry ($36.07) after TP1 ($39.62) is hit. 💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy: ✔ Take 50% profits at $39.62, let the rest run toward $43.63. ✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even ($36.07) after TP1 is reached. ⚠️ Fake Breakout Risk ❌ If the price fails to hold above $36.07 and drops back, exit early to avoid losses. ❌ Wait for a strong bullish candle close above $36.07 before entering aggressively. 🚀 Final Thoughts ✔ Bullish Setup – Bouncing from support at $36.07 suggests a potential reversal. ✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation. ✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:1.6 to TP1, 1:3.3 to TP2. 💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀📈 🔗 #StockMarket 📉 #TradingNews 📰 #StockAnalysis 📊 #MarketUpdate 🔥 #Investing 💰 #Trading 📈 #Finance 💵 #ProfittoPath 🚀 #SwingTrading 🔄 #DayTrading ⚡ #StockTrader 💸 #TechnicalAnalysis 📉 #EconomicNews 🏛️ #FinancialFreedom 💡 #MarketTrends 📊 #StockAlerts 🔔 #TradeSmart 🤓 #Bullish 🐂 #RiskManagement ⚠️ #TradingCommunity 🤝
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by ProfittoPath
SMCI TOO CHEAP TOO MANY SHORTS...Imagine a company that’s not just riding the AI wave but steering it—Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is that titan. With demand for its servers skyrocketing—think $14.94 billion in 2024 revenue, doubled from the prior year, and a $40 billion 2026 target—it’s the undisputed king of high-performance computing. Why? SMCI’s mastered the art of execution, delivering custom, energy-efficient servers faster than anyone. Its secret weapon? Liquid cooling technology, backed by 9 critical patents, that’s revolutionizing data centers. While others scramble to keep up, SMCI’s already shipped over 100,000 liquid-cooled GPUs, slashing power costs by up to 40% and meeting the insatiable needs of AI factories. This isn’t new for SMCI. As a motherboard manufacturing pioneer since 1993, it’s spent decades perfecting modular, scalable designs—think Lego bricks for tech giants. That legacy, paired with its server supremacy, creates an unassailable moat. Dell and HP? They’re playing catch-up. Dell’s AI servers are a fraction of its business (5% of revenue), and HP’s enterprise arm lacks SMCI’s agility. Neither matches SMCI’s rack-scale integration or its chokehold on Nvidia’s ecosystem—SMCI’s the go-to for Blackwell GPUs, where liquid cooling is non-negotiable. Competitors face a brutal truth: SMCI’s patents and speed-to-market are a wall too high to climb. Yet, at ~$36 today (March 3, 2025), SMCI’s shares scream undervalued. A forward P/E of 20-25, with 54% YoY growth in Q2 2025 prelims ($5.6-$5.7 billion), dwarfs Dell’s 15 P/E on slower gains. The Street’s “Hold” and $45-$53 targets miss the mark—SMCI’s moat and demand suggest $70-$100 is closer. Tariff fears and audit noise? Temporary static. With 85% institutional ownership and AI infrastructure spending surging (Gartner predicts $367 billion in 2025 data center spend), SMCI’s poised to soar. This isn’t just a stock—it’s a steal, a front-row seat to the AI revolution, with a moat that leaves rivals drowning in its wake.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by imcnf5c4ff
$SMCI: Super Micro Computer – AI Server Surge or a Pit Stop? NASDAQ:SMCI : Super Micro Computer – AI Server Surge or a Pit Stop? AI infrastructure’s hotter than a July barbecue, with revenue up 110% to $14,989.2 million in 2024! But with internal control concerns, is this tech beast charging up or taking a breather? Let’s dive in! (1/9) Good morning, everyone! ☀️ NASDAQ:SMCI : Super Micro Computer – AI Server Surge or a Pit Stop? AI infrastructure’s hotter than a July barbecue, with revenue up 110% to $14,989.2 million in 2024! But with internal control concerns, is this tech beast charging up or taking a breather? Let’s dive in! 🔍 (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Fiscal 2024: Net sales soared 110.4% to $14,989.2 million 💰 • Server Systems: Up 115.9%, GPU servers leading the charge 📏 • Sector Trend: AI demand’s skyrocketing 🌟 It’s a wild ride, fueled by AI’s hunger! ⚙️ (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Market Cap: $2.4B, based on shares outstanding 🏆 • Holdings: Servers, storage, and AI solutions ⏰ • Trend: International sales steady at 32%, showing global appetite 🎯 Firm, carving a niche in AI infrastructure! 🚀 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • 10-K Filing: Dropped Feb 25, 20 25, dodged NASDAQ delisting 🔄 • Revenue Driver: GPU servers for AI workloads 🌍 • Market Reaction: Shares jumped 19.8% after-hours 📋 Adapting, with investors cheering the comeback! 💡 (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Internal Controls: Audit flagged issues, per Feb 25 filing 🔍 • Competition: Big players in AI server space 📉 • Volatility: High-growth sectors swing hard ❄️ Tough, but risks loom! 🛑 (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • Revenue Boom: 110% growth, $14,989.2 million in sales 🥇 • AI Focus: GPU servers crushing it 📊 • Global Reach: 32% international sales 🔧 Got rocket fuel in the tank! 🏦 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: Internal control concerns, per audit 📉 • Opportunities: AI infrastructure demand keeps soaring 📈 Can it fix the cracks and ride the wave? 🤔 (8/9) – 📢 SMCI’s revenue up 110%, with AI demand exploding, your take? 🗳️ • Bullish: Shares to $50+ soon, AI’s unstoppable 🐂 • Neutral: Steady, risks balance growth ⚖️ • Bearish: $35 looms, controls spook 🐻 Chime in below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 SMCI’s revenue surge to $14,989.2 million screams AI potential 📈, but control issues add a pinch of caution 🌿. Volatility’s our friend—dips are DCA gold 💰. Grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust?
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by DCAChampion
1
HOW TO use the Acceleration Bands HTF indicatorYou can access this indicator HERE: For details about the indicator, please see the indicator's description. This idea is about the use of it. You always want to go with the trend and trade into the direction that "accelerates" according to the indicator. When the price accelerates, it is more likely to continue than to reverse. Also, the volatility will be much greater (momentum) to the acceleration direction. All the explosive moves happen outside of the acceleration bands. You can go over many charts and see that the indicator methodology is aligned with good trading principles of great traders such as Darvas Box Trading, and Jesse Livermore entries, and also SMC.
NASDAQ:SMCIEducation
by ZoharCho
2
SMCI Pulling Back After Earnings Surge! Is a Bounce Coming? Technical Analysis for February 27, 2025: 1. Current Price Action: * SMCI spiked following earnings but has since retraced, now trading near $48.20. * The stock is testing key support at $48.50, a crucial level for a potential bounce. * POC (Point of Control) at $51.08 is the major level that bulls need to reclaim. 2. Key Levels to Watch: * Support: $48.50 (Current level), $45.50, $41.64 (Major downside risk). * Resistance: $51.08 (POC), $58.28 (Breakout zone). * Upside Targets: $57, $60, $66.42. 3. Indicators Analysis: * MACD: Bearish momentum, showing weakness. * Stoch RSI: Extremely oversold, signaling a potential short-term bounce. * Volume Profile: Heavy liquidity between $48.50 and $51, meaning strong accumulation. GEX & Option Strategy for Tomorrow and the Week: 1. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights: * Call Walls: $57, $60 → Resistance areas. * Put Walls: $39, $35 → Major support. 2. IV & Sentiment: * IVR: 41.1 (Moderate) * IVx Avg: 136 (High IV, potential for premium selling). * Call Positioning: 99.8% bullish sentiment. * GEX Sentiment: Bullish if $51 is reclaimed. 3. Trading Suggestions: * Bullish Setup: If SMCI reclaims $51, consider long positions targeting $57-$60, with a stop at $48. * Bearish Setup: If SMCI breaks below $48, short setups targeting $45-$42, stop at $50. * Options Play: Selling put spreads at $45 support or call spreads near $60 resistance. 📌 My Thoughts & Suggestion: * SMCI remains highly volatile due to earnings—watch for a reclaim of $51 for a bullish continuation. * If $48 fails, expect a test of $45-$42. * High IV makes option selling attractive, especially for short-term plays. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚀
NASDAQ:SMCI
by BullBearInsights
THEORETICALS ALL MET OR VERY CLOSE. next $88 of $98SMCI HAS MET ALL ITS THEORETICAL PIVOT POINTS. IN MY OPINION HUMBLE OPINION I THINK SUPERMICRO IS READY TO GO BACK UP. THE NEW THEORETICAL IS ABOVE $67. GOOD LUCK ENJOY THIS. STOCK HAS A VERY LOW PE. IT'S NOW CLEARED FROM ALL ACCUSATIONS THAT WERE MADE UP BY THE INFAMOUS HINDENBURG REPORT with the help of the woman from Ernst & Young who is a well-known "Obama-NOID", Obama supporter. I know I'm not supposed to say this things. Anyhow in my opinion Ernst & Young was complicit with the Hindenburg report in an orchestrated effort to short the segment that included Nvidia and everybody else the problem with the SMCI is that it has a low liquidity, and therefore it behaves like a penny stock once the stock is bumped down, It's very difficult to move it up again unless everything is cleared, like now for example, everything has been cleared about SMCI, which is a great company and it's definitely the top dog in the segment if you think about it, SMCI, the one that carries all the chips without SMCI. They wouldn't be in the video or an AMD or an Intel in the AI segment. I just bought the whole thing and I will continue buying on the way up. You can do the same if you like it's sort of a safe way to do it. You don't get as big of a returns, but it's safe and I like safety more than anything good luck, boys and girls enjoy the ride. I think we're going to 88 now maybe even 90 on a straight line very likely and then we should be reaching $187 for the stock. These are my opinions, of course sometimes they don't print out. Sometimes they do most likely they will, but the responsibility is yours, so please make sure that you do all your calculations, correctly. Just to help you our - SMCI is projecting $40 Billion in revenue in 2026, that means the stock will likely print above $260 ... do the numbers ... I did mine.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by imcnf5c4ff
TRYING NOT TO CHASE TOO MUCH Supermicro did excellently nice after hours, however, it also touched a particular pivot point so I think that tomorrow we should be able to find the CI at about 53 to 52 or 54 whatever it is a little lower because this was really a massive gap up and the market maker should not be so happy about this. They may need to bring everything down to be able to reengage all the derivatives that work off this stock. This is all theoretical. It doesn't need to happen, but in general when you finish her, a wedge it follows a predetermined pattern that is quite reliable in my opinion.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by imcnf5c4ff
Breaking down the stage of SMCI pop (with real time forecasts). SMCI has now completed all the general stages of the Minsky bubble. It made the rally, it made the top, it made the capitulation and then it made the mean reversion. Big win for the efficacy of the Minsky model. Let's now run through the stages as they happened. Because after the fact, it's easy. Everyone sees it. To benefit from a bull market you need to know how to take profit at the right time - let's review the clues we had. SMCI had its "New Paradigm" moment in mid 2024. Original full post below. At that point we had all the classic tells of a top forming. But if you trade market tops a lot, you know there's can be a some gaming going on before it actually ends. Most often what we see is there being a bluff sell off and then a spike of the high. This provide a lot of liquidity for Mr Big to sell into Mr Little because My Little is either hitting stops above the high or FOMOing into the "New breakout" because they seen the previous versions pop 20 - 50% and they're not about to miss this one!!! Getting the general zone on this one was easy. The market essentially topped on the 4.23. If we discount the spike outs. And I've written super in depth posts about how most major inflection points in markets come from 4.23's. Since my time writing these posts/models for 4.23 reversals I've also dug into testing my fib based ideas against historic markets via different AI tools and actually found AI when given the test criteria will also define 4.23's as being related to speculative bubbles. Like I said above, usually we fake crash, spike out and then real crash. So after we hit the first section of the move we went long into the low. Because even in a stronger drop we typically see the 76 bull trap here. And then in classic form, we topped on the butterfly. Absolutely textbook. ==== I'll now leave you with a series of NVDA charts. 4.23: Butterfly: And all of this is happening inside the zone I flagged up as the trend completion area for NVDA when it was trading under 500. === What's the difference between SMCI and NVDA? Maybe about 6 months.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by holeyprofit
SMCI - RETRACED from $67 to $50 - that is good enough 4 me.the retracement meets all criteria, time to go long. If SmCi delivers on its projections of $40 Billion in revenue by 2026, that means that in 1 year the shares trade for $197 each. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has recently experienced a significant pullback, retracing 20% from $67 to $50, which presents an attractive entry point for long positions. This correction offers a compelling opportunity to invest in a company with strong fundamentals and growth potential. The stock's valuation metrics are particularly appealing: Low P/E ratio: SMCI's price-to-earnings ratio is significantly lower than the peer average, indicating the stock is undervalued compared to its competitors. Attractive P/S ratio: With an enterprise value/revenue that is relatively low, SMCI appears undervalued relative to its sales performance. Growth potential: The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, showcasing its strong market position. Analyst optimism: Recent analyst actions reflect confidence in the company's prospects. Industry leadership: SMCI has emerged as a prominent player in the technology hardware industry. Given these factors, SMCI appears undervalued and poised for potential upside. The recent pullback provides an opportune moment to establish or increase long positions in this promising tech stock.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by imcnf5c4ff
SMCI - Eyeing this for a potential reloadBEWARE - Market-wide we're seeing a potential institutional "rugpull" sort of situation after plenty of ATH's made last week. Not predicting the market's "top" but I am seeing a common theme on many charts that correlate to the S&P recent ATH and subsequent dump (especially considering it wasn't provoked by any specific news). Also, SMCI specific, keep in mind their deadline approaching to submit the required documents to avoid de-listing. Goes without saying that this would have a huge effect on the stock if somehow they failed to submit. Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:SMCI
by ReigningTrades