SHORT SBUXELLIOT WAVE FALSE BREAKOUT - SHORT OUT WALLSTREET
False pump on hype, no financial backing plus technical retracement in bound. Get in short leverage.
SRB trade ideas
SBUX to $100My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when price tags the top or bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at top of channels (period 100 52 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive and over top of Bollinger Band
Price at 2.618 Fibonacci level
Entry at $108.75
Target is $100 or channel bottom
Starbucks Earnings Top Expectation, Amidst Declining in SalesEarnings Overview
Starbucks reported fiscal first-quarter results that topped analysts’ expectations, despite sales and profit declines year-over-year. The results came as new CEO Brian Niccol said the company made progress toward its "Back to Starbucks" strategy.
Starbucks did not provide an outlook for 2025, but CFO Rachel Ruggeri warned earnings pressure could "intensify" in the 2nd quarter, before improving in the back half of 2025.
Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) reported fiscal first-quarter results that topped analysts’ expectations, despite sales and profit declines.1
The coffee giant saw net sales fall 0.3% year-over-year to $9.4 billion, above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. Earnings of $780.8 million, or 69 cents per share, declined from $1.02 billion, or 90 cents per share, a year earlier but topped Wall Street expectations. Global same-store sales fell 4%, a narrower decline than the 5% drop expected by analysts.
Better-Than-Expected Results Come Under New CEO's Turnaround Plan
new CEO Brian Niccol said in a release:
“While we’re only one quarter into our turnaround, we’re moving quickly to act on the 'Back to Starbucks' efforts and we’ve seen a positive response,” .
Niccol, who took the mantle of power in September, has implemented a turnaround strategy known as “Back to Starbucks,” which has included the reinstatement of a policy requiring customers to make a purchase if they want to spend time in the company’s cafes or use its bathrooms.
His new initiative also includes a roughly 30% reduction in menu items to help cut down on order times, Niccol said on the company’s earnings call. Niccol said Starbucks plans to develop a time slot model that will allow customers to schedule mobile orders, as well as adding shelving to separate mobile orders from in-store ones.
Starbucks aims to expand its presence with more stores too, after adding 377 net new stores in the first quarter. Niccol further stated
"Starbucks could even double its store count in the U.S. in the next couple years, which stood at 17,049 as of Dec. 29."
CFO Warns of Earnings Could Be Pressured in Q2
In what came as a shocker, Starbucks did not provide an outlook for 2025, after saying last fall that it wanted to “complete an assessment of the business” under Niccol, before issuing guidance.
However, CFO Rachel Ruggeri said on the company's earnings call Starbucks expects YoY earnings pressure could "intensify" in the second quarter, before improving in the back half of 2025.
China Challenges Persist Amid Competitive Pricing
In China, Starbucks’ second-largest market, same-store sales fell 6%, with a 4% decline in average ticket prices. The company has leaned on discounts to compete with lower-priced rivals like Luckin Coffee. Despite these measures, traffic remains a challenge in the region, contributing to the ongoing decline in sales performance.
Technical Outlook
Shares of Starbucks were little changed and slightly higher in extended trading Tuesday following the company's earnings call. They were up 10% for the year so far through Tuesday's close. For traders, Starbucks’ stock is showing resilience, with shares up 30% since Niccol’s appointment last year. While the long-term success of the turnaround plan is uncertain, the current momentum suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the stock.
as of the of time of writing, shares of Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) is trading with a moderate level in premarket trading up 0.38%. there's a bit of a concern largely due to the fact that the stock is overbought with the relative strength index at 70.75. Also adding to the peril, is the gap-up pattern exhibited by NASDAQ:SBUX on the 12th of August, 2024 this gap up pattern wasn't filled up.
while seen as a bullish pattern, gaps are historically known to be filled up either up or down.
In the case of a cool off, immediate support lies in the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level a break below that pivot could resort to the fill down of the gap up pattern formed last year.
SBUX LONG 28TH JAN 2025 READ NOTESSBUX is looking good here at current price with a clear price action.
I will go long here. When ever I am trading at current price then we need to understand that it would be a riskier trade comparing it to a regular trade. It can come back to $92 if it does not go up from here
Do not blindly follow anyone without understanding the risk involved.
NOTE:RISK MANAGED & I WILL GO LONG
Starbucks we bounced from a trendline and we have done a possible double bottom once we break 126 we heading to 200 per share
SBUX (Starbucks) AnalysisSBUX has broken out of the red resistance zone.
🎯 Targets to Watch:
1️⃣ First Target: Green line level
2️⃣ Second Target: Blue line level
Starbucks is attempting to break above 108!NASDAQ:SBUX is looking at a potential break to the upside after the stock forms a rounding bottom at the lower gap support of 89.22. Ichimoku has formed a three-bullish golden crossover and momentum is seen returning to the upside.
Directional movement index is supporting the bullish strength and Volume is in a healthy expansion.
Should there be any correction, the next support is at 93.88
Starbucks Corporation: Elliott Wave Correction UnfoldingNASDAQ:SBUX
Overview:
Starbucks is in the midst of an Elliott Wave corrective structure, likely entering the C-wave of an ABC correction. The bearish momentum suggests that the correction isn't complete, presenting an opportunity to short as the structure completes.
Elliott Wave Analysis:
Wave A: The initial impulsive wave down broke key support levels, signaling the start of a correction. This wave exhibited strong bearish momentum.
Wave B: The corrective upward retracement faced resistance near $93.12, forming a potential lower high and respecting the descending channel. With failure to break out above $94, this wave has likely concluded, paving the way for the final corrective wave.
Wave C: Currently forming, this wave is expected to extend toward lower Fibonacci retracement levels, targeting $88.71, $84.29, and $79.88. The typical symmetry in Elliott Wave corrections suggests that Wave C may equal or exceed the length of Wave A.
Key Trading Levels:
Entry: $93.12 (near the end of Wave B).
Stop Loss: $94.00 (just above Wave B resistance).
Target 1: $88.71 (38.2% Fibonacci extension of Wave A).
Target 2: $84.29 (61.8% extension and channel support).
Target 3: $79.88 (full measured move of Wave C and strong support).
Trading Strategy:
Short Entry: Look for confirmation of rejection near $93.12. This aligns with the conclusion of Wave B and the start of Wave C.
Risk Management: Place a tight stop-loss at $94, above the resistance line formed by Wave B.
Profit-Taking: Scale out of positions as price approaches each Fibonacci target and key support zones.
Additional Notes:
The Elliott Wave correction is part of a broader descending wedge structure. A decisive breakdown could trigger a stronger bearish continuation.
Confluence of technical factors (Fibonacci levels, trendline resistance, and Elliott Wave symmetry) supports the bearish scenario.
Monitor volume and RSI for divergences to confirm the wave progression.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing involve significant risks, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on this analysis. Always trade responsibly and within your own risk tolerance.
$sbuxi like to try going short here, we have fib lvl and volume, so its a good r/r but remember earnings!
Starbucks (SBUX): A Steady Climb to Success with Strong Growth ☆Starbucks (SBUX) has shown an impressive upward trend in recent months, which reflects positively on its stock performance and market outlook.
This growth is driven by several factors that make the company a strong performer in the retail and beverage sectors.
Firstly, Starbucks has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in its business strategy, successfully navigating challenges such as labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.
The company’s focus on expanding its digital presence, enhancing its loyalty program, and growing its global footprint has continued to yield strong results.
Additionally, its shift towards premium products, sustainability initiatives, and innovation in menu offerings has resonated with both loyal customers and new ones.
The company's consistent revenue growth, particularly driven by strong same-store sales and increased traffic in both its domestic and international markets, signals a solid foundation for long-term growth.
Investors are also bullish on Starbucks’ ability to pass on price increases without significantly impacting customer demand, suggesting robust pricing power in a competitive market.
Moreover, Starbucks' strong brand recognition and loyal customer base further solidify its position as a leader in the coffee industry.
Its emphasis on creating a premium, experience-driven atmosphere for consumers continues to foster customer retention and higher per capita spending, even as other businesses struggle with inflationary pressures.
Given these factors, Starbucks' upward momentum in recent months reflects a healthy financial trajectory, making it an attractive stock for investors looking for stability, growth, and consistent returns.
The company’s proven ability to adapt, innovate, and sustain profitability positions it well for continued success in the future.
Starbucks Corporation: Elliott Wave Correction Unfolding [SHORT]NASDAQ:SBUX
Overview:
Starbucks is in the midst of an Elliott Wave corrective structure, likely entering the C-wave of an ABC correction. The bearish momentum suggests that the correction isn't complete, presenting an opportunity to short as the structure completes.
Elliott Wave Analysis:
Wave A: The initial impulsive wave down broke key support levels, signaling the start of a correction. This wave exhibited strong bearish momentum.
Wave B: The corrective upward retracement faced resistance near $93.12, forming a potential lower high and respecting the descending channel. With failure to break out above $94, this wave has likely concluded, paving the way for the final corrective wave.
Wave C: Currently forming, this wave is expected to extend toward lower Fibonacci retracement levels, targeting $88.71, $84.29, and $79.88. The typical symmetry in Elliott Wave corrections suggests that Wave C may equal or exceed the length of Wave A.
Key Trading Levels:
Entry: $93.12 (near the end of Wave B).
Stop Loss: $94.00 (just above Wave B resistance).
Target 1: $88.71 (38.2% Fibonacci extension of Wave A).
Target 2: $84.29 (61.8% extension and channel support).
Target 3: $79.88 (full measured move of Wave C and strong support).
Trading Strategy:
Short Entry: Look for confirmation of rejection near $93.12. This aligns with the conclusion of Wave B and the start of Wave C.
Risk Management: Place a tight stop-loss at $94, above the resistance line formed by Wave B.
Profit-Taking: Scale out of positions as price approaches each Fibonacci target and key support zones.
Additional Notes:
The Elliott Wave correction is part of a broader descending wedge structure. A decisive breakdown could trigger a stronger bearish continuation.
Confluence of technical factors (Fibonacci levels, trendline resistance, and Elliott Wave symmetry) supports the bearish scenario.
Monitor volume and RSI for divergences to confirm the wave progression.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing involve significant risks, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on this analysis. Always trade responsibly and within your own risk tolerance.
Analysis and Prediction for Starbucks Corporation SBUXChart Overview:
Instrument: Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
Timeframe: Daily Chart
Indicators and Features:
White Dashed Lines: Represent key dark pool levels.
Trendlines:
Red lines represent major resistance.
Green line marks ascending support.
Supply Zone (SZ) and Demand Zone (DZ)**: Highlight potential zones of liquidity and institutional interest.
Pivot Levels: R1 at 102.59 and R2 at 108.73 serve as key resistance levels.
Key Observations:
Descending Resistance:
The upper red trendline shows a long-term descending resistance.
SBUX recently tested this resistance around the R1 (102.59) level but failed to break out, leading to a rejection and drop.
Dark Pool Levels:
Key levels to watch:
$98.60: Acts as immediate resistance and a potential reversal point.
$91.65: A key demand zone (SZ) aligned with a dark pool level.
$86.30: Lower demand zone and ultimate support for bulls.
Ascending Support (Green Line):
The ascending green trendline has held as a strong support level during prior dips.
The current price bounced off this support around $86.30, indicating buyer strength.
Potential Reversal Zone:
After a sharp selloff, the price has bounced back to the $91-$93 range, which lies close to a short-term support zone (SZ).
This indicates a possible consolidation before the next significant move.
Pivot Levels and Supply Zone:
The R1 (102.59) level is a critical resistance, aligning with the red descending trendline and prior rejection.
R2 (108.73) represents the next profit target if SBUX can break above R1.
Trading Strategy:
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout:
If the price sustains above $94.00, we could see bullish momentum toward the following:
Target 1: $98.60 (dark pool resistance).
Target 2: $102.59 (R1 and major resistance).
Target 3: $108.73 (R2).
Entry:
Long positions above $94.00 with confirmation (strong volume and candle close).
Stop Loss:
Place below $91.00 (below the demand zone and green support trendline).
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation:
If the price fails to break $94.00 and reverses, we could see:
Target 1: $91.65 (demand zone/dark pool support).
Target 2: $86.30 (ascending trendline support and demand zone).
Entry:
Short positions below $91.00 if breakdown is confirmed.
Stop Loss:
Place above $94.00.
Risk Management:
Use a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
Position size should reflect individual risk tolerance and account size.
Volume Consideration:
Watch for a volume spike near key levels (94.00 or 91.65) to confirm breakout or breakdown scenarios.
Summary:
This chart shows a critical point for SBUX, where buyers are defending a demand zone ($91.65-$93.00). A breakout above $94.00 would suggest a move toward $98.60 or higher, while a failure to hold above the green trendline would indicate further downside to $86.30.
$SBUX Starbucks Corporation Daily Chart AnalysisThe chart depicts Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) on the daily timeframe, showing a recent breakdown from a rising wedge pattern. The price has sharply fallen below key support levels and moving averages, suggesting a shift in momentum to the downside. Here's a detailed walkthrough of the analysis:
Key Observations:
1. Trend Analysis:
Rising Wedge Breakdown:
The chart highlights a breakdown from a rising wedge, a bearish reversal pattern, indicating potential for further downside.
The price has decisively broken below the lower boundary of the wedge, confirming the bearish momentum.
Bearish Momentum:
SBUX is now trading below the 200-day moving average (red line) and other short-term EMAs (8 EMA, 21 EMA), which aligns with a bearish trend.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Levels:
92.28-93.01: A key resistance zone aligned with prior dark pool activity and broken support, likely to act as a ceiling for any short-term rebounds.
95.79: Previous support turned resistance, near the 200-day moving average.
98.60: A strong resistance area near recent highs.
Support Levels:
87.00: Immediate support zone, tested recently with increased volume.
80.24-79.15: Major support area, aligning with historical levels and dark pool prints.
Below 79.15, the next significant level is 75.00, a psychological support area.
3. Volume Analysis:
A volume spike accompanies the recent sell-off, indicating strong selling pressure. However, this could also signal capitulation if buyers step in near support levels.
4. Moving Averages:
The price is trading significantly below the 200-day moving average, confirming bearish sentiment.
Short-term moving averages (8 EMA, 21 EMA) are sloping downward, suggesting that bearish momentum may persist.
5. Dark Pool Activity:
Recent dark pool levels around 93.01 and 92.28 may act as resistance if the price attempts a rebound.
Additional dark pool levels at 80.24 and 79.15 suggest institutional interest, making this area a critical support zone.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
Trigger: If the price fails to reclaim the 92.28 resistance level and continues lower, the bearish trend is likely to persist.
Profit Targets:
87.00: Immediate short-term target.
80.24-79.15: Strong support zone with significant institutional interest.
75.00: Longer-term bearish target.
Stop-Loss: Above 93.50, as a break above this level would signal potential bullish recovery.
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal
Trigger: A breakout above 92.28, accompanied by strong volume, would signal a potential reversal or relief rally.
Profit Targets:
95.79: Resistance near the 200-day moving average.
98.60: Strong resistance zone near recent highs.
Stop-Loss: Below 87.00, as a failure to hold this level would invalidate the bullish setup.
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation
If the price consolidates between 87.00 and 92.28, consider:
Long positions near 87.00, targeting 92.28.
Short positions near 92.28, targeting 87.00.
Volume and candlestick patterns will help confirm the direction of the breakout.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Bearish momentum is strong, with the immediate downside target at 87.00. If this level breaks, watch for a move toward 80.24-79.15.
Long-Term Outlook: The dark pool levels near 80.24-79.15 suggest strong institutional support. If the price reaches this zone, it could provide a significant buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Starbucks: A Bearish OutlookStarbucks: A Bearish Outlook
Starbucks completed a five-wave pattern at 103, with the price moving down clearly.
A large Rising Wedge pattern represents the fifth wave of the movement that began on May 2024 and finished at the end of November 2024
Currently, the price has broken through the support line of the pattern, indicating further decline.
After any small correction, we should see SBUX moving down to 88 and 82.5.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Starbucks (SBUX) - Long Setup On a ReversalWe're monitoring a potential bullish setup for Starbucks on the daily timeframe. The price is approaching a key buy zone, identified at the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci levels, which aligns with previous structural support.
This presents an opportunity for a reversal to the upside.
Trade Details:
- Entry (Buy Zone): $83.69
- Stop-loss (Red Zone): $76.79
Targets (Green Zones):
- Target 1: $91.24 (0.382 retracement)
- Target 2: $110.85 (0.236 retracement)
Analysis:
The bullish bias is supported by the confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels and the structural buy zone.
Look for a bounce in this zone, with upside potential to the 0.382 and 0.236 retracement levels. This is a swing trade setup, so patience is key.
Swing short for StarbucksExpecting this triangular price channel to hold. If a successful breakout were to occur, I'll look for a new long position.
Eyeing SBUX $100 CallsExpecting a bounce off of this trend line and support to setup a reversal upward, targeting $100 calls for end of year.
Buy $SBUX, don't just drink it. Own what you consoooom!Key Stats:
P/E Ratio: 30.7
Dividend Yield: 2.26% (enough to cover a tall latte)
Free Cash Flow (FCF): $3.3B TTM
Next Earnings Date: Feb 4, 2025
Market Cap: $117B
Top 3 Technical Reasons:
1️⃣ Golden Cross Incoming: The 50-day SMA is closing in on the 200-day SMA, a classic "buy me" signal for trend chasers.
2️⃣ Support Strength: Holding the $93.50-$95 range like it's the Fort Knox of caffeine stocks. Multiple bounces indicate strong buyer interest.
3️⃣ RSI Divergence: RSI showing signs of upward momentum without overbought exhaustion.
Top 3 Fundamental Reasons:
1️⃣ China Recovery: With over 6,000 stores in China and a growing middle class, Starbucks is poised to benefit from increased discretionary spending.
2️⃣ Resilient Same-Store Sales: U.S. comps up 7% last quarter.
3️⃣ Dividend Growth Machine: 12% annual dividend increase for 13 straight years. Your caffeine addiction pays you back.
Potential Paths to Profit:
Option 1 (Lowest Risk): Buy and hold shares. Picking some up myself here.
Option 2 (Options Play): Jan 2025 $115 calls, currently priced at ~$5.50. Perfect for a bullish outlook with less upfront capital.
Option 3 (Spread Strategy): Sell the Jan 2025 $130 call and buy the $120 call to reduce costs.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences. We do not offer refunds. All sales are final.
SBUX- ascending triangle breakoutSBUX - Stock breaking out of ascending triangle and looking ready for more upside. looking for calls above $102.50 for a move towards $115 first price target. Stock is strong on indicators.
SBUX - Bearish Weekly RSII have been seeing this Descending RSI pattern that leads to a break upward followed by a down correction back to the descending trend line
This is showing again on this RSI for SBUX, I have used the dotted green line to show how I estimate the RSI movement to occur.
Last time this dump happened it dropped 75%. Assuming the same drop of 75% this leaves us with a bearish Weekly chart.
$SBUXFriday we closed above a strong ceiling we've been trying to reclaim as a floor. Look for 2 possible retest areas, one of them being 102. A little riskier entry but seeing the strong push Friday that could be a good starter position. A more better retest would be the now reclaimed floor at around 100. We have 2 targets 1 of them being the CB ( cost basis) of the weekly magnet at around 105. 2nd target can be 107.50ish. if we get that look for a strong sell wall. This idea is invalid if we close below the floor we reclaimed 100.
