Get started
TESLA INCTESLA INCTESLA INC

TESLA INC

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview Financials News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Forecast Seasonals Bonds

TL0 trade ideas

Tesla Suspends Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Were Often WrongTesla Pulls the Plug on Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Weren't Worth Much Anyway Tesla, the electric vehicle behemoth that has captivated and often confounded investors for over a decade, has made another move guaranteed to stir debate: it's suspending its forward-looking guidance. For many companies, withdrawing financial forecasts signals significant uncertainty or a major strategic shift, often sending shares tumbling. While Tesla's stock undoubtedly reacts to such news, a deeper look reveals a compelling argument: Tesla's official guidance, particularly in recent years, had become such a moving target, so frequently untethered from eventual reality, that its predictive value was already deeply questionable. Suspending it might simply be acknowledging the obvious. For years, Tesla's earnings calls and investor communications were punctuated by ambitious, often audacious, targets set by CEO Elon Musk and the company. These weren't just vague aspirations; they were often specific numbers for vehicle deliveries, production ramps, timelines for new technologies like Full Self-Driving (FSD), and launch dates for anticipated models like the Cybertruck or the Semi. The market, enthralled by Tesla's disruptive potential and Musk's charismatic pronouncements, frequently hung on these words, baking them into valuation models and trading strategies. However, the history of Tesla meeting these self-imposed targets is, charitably speaking, inconsistent. The guidance often veered into the quixotic, reflecting a potent blend of extreme optimism, engineering ambition, and perhaps a dash of Musk's famed "reality distortion field." Consider the infamous "production hell" of the Model 3 ramp-up. Initial targets were wildly optimistic, projecting volumes that the company struggled immensely to achieve, facing bottlenecks in battery production and assembly line automation. While Tesla eventually overcame these hurdles, the timeline and cost deviated significantly from early guidance. Similarly, the promise of Full Self-Driving has been a perennial "next year" phenomenon. While the capabilities of Tesla's Autopilot and FSD Beta have advanced significantly, the arrival of true Level 4 or 5 autonomy, capable of operating without driver supervision under virtually all conditions – as often implied by the timelines suggested in guidance – remains elusive, years behind schedules hinted at in past forecasts. The Cybertruck provides another stark example. Unveiled in 2019 with a projected start date that came and went multiple times, its eventual, limited launch in late 2023 was years behind schedule, and scaling its unique manufacturing process remains a challenge. Guidance around its ramp-up has been adjusted repeatedly. This pattern isn't necessarily born from deliberate deception, but rather from a confluence of factors inherent to Tesla's DNA and the volatile industries it operates in: 1. Aggressive Goal Setting: Musk is known for setting incredibly ambitious "stretch goals" intended to motivate teams to achieve breakthroughs. While effective internally, translating these aspirational targets directly into public financial guidance is fraught with risk. 2. Underestimation of Complexity: Bringing revolutionary products to mass market – whether it's a new vehicle platform, a complex software suite like FSD, or novel battery technology – involves navigating unforeseen engineering, manufacturing, supply chain, and regulatory hurdles. Initial guidance often seemed to underestimate these complexities. 3. Market Volatility: The EV market itself is dynamic. Consumer demand shifts, government incentives change, raw material costs fluctuate, and competition intensifies – all factors that can derail even well-laid plans and render guidance obsolete. 4. The "Musk Factor": Elon Musk's public statements, sometimes made spontaneously on social media or during earnings calls, often became de facto guidance, even if not formally enshrined. His optimism could inflate expectations beyond what the operational side of the business could reliably deliver on a set schedule. Given this history, why did the market continue to pay such close attention? Part of it was the sheer scale of Tesla's ambition and its undeniable success in revolutionizing the automotive industry. Investors betting on disruption were often willing to overlook missed targets, focusing instead on the long-term vision. Past stock performance also created a feedback loop; as the stock soared despite missed guidance, it reinforced the idea that the specific numbers mattered less than the overall trajectory and narrative. Guidance served as a signal of intent and ambition, even if the execution timeline slipped. However, the context has shifted dramatically. Tesla is no longer the lone wolf in a nascent EV market. Competition is fierce, particularly from Chinese automakers like BYD, but also from legacy manufacturers finally hitting their stride with compelling EV offerings. Global EV demand growth, while still present, has slowed from its previously exponential pace. Tesla itself has engaged in significant price cuts globally to maintain volume, putting pressure on its once-stellar automotive margins. In this more challenging environment, the luxury of consistently missing ambitious targets wears thin. The decision to suspend guidance now can be interpreted in several ways: • Pragmatic Realism: Management may genuinely lack visibility into near-term demand, production capabilities (especially with new models or processes), or the impact of macroeconomic factors. Suspending guidance is arguably more responsible than issuing forecasts they have low confidence in. • Strategic Pivot: Tesla is increasingly emphasizing its future potential in AI, robotics (Optimus), and autonomous ride-sharing (Robotaxi). These ventures have even longer and more uncertain development timelines than vehicle production. Focusing investor attention away from quarterly delivery numbers might be part of a strategy to reframe the company's narrative around these future bets. • Avoiding Accountability: A more cynical take is that suspending guidance removes a key benchmark against which management's performance can be judged, particularly during a period of slowing growth and heightened competition. Regardless of the primary motivation, the practical implication for investors is clear: the already thin reed of Tesla's official guidance is now gone entirely. This forces a greater reliance on analyzing tangible results – actual deliveries, reported margins, cash flow generation, progress on FSD adoption rates, and demonstrable advancements in new ventures – rather than promises of future performance. The suspension underscores that investing in Tesla requires a strong belief in its long-term vision and its ability to execute on extremely complex technological and manufacturing challenges, often without a clear, company-provided roadmap for the immediate future. The focus must shift from parsing guidance to meticulously evaluating performance, competitive positioning, and the plausibility of its next-generation bets. In conclusion, Tesla's decision to stop issuing formal guidance is less of a shockwave and more of a formal acknowledgment of a long-standing reality. Its forecasts were often more aspirational than operational, reflecting a culture of ambitious goal-setting within a highly volatile industry. While the absence of guidance introduces a new layer of uncertainty, savvy investors likely already applied a significant discount factor to Tesla's projections. The company's future success now hinges more transparently than ever not on what it promises for tomorrow, but on what it demonstrably delivers today. The quixotic forecasts may be gone, but the fundamental challenge of execution remains.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by bryandowningqln
THE DEATH CROSSDeath Cross Triggered During Consolidation: What It Could Mean The 50 SMA (blue) just crossed below the 200 SMA (red), signaling a Death Cross—a traditionally bearish indicator. But here’s the catch: this didn’t happen during a steep downtrend. It happened during consolidation. That changes the narrative. When a Death Cross forms during a period of sideways chop instead of a clear downtrend, it often reflects lagging momentum, not accelerating weakness. It can trap shorts expecting a breakdown, especially if price is coiling above strong support or forming a basing pattern. 💡 Key things I’m watching: Does price respect the consolidation range low? Are we forming a bullish divergence on RSI or MACD? How does volume behave around the cross? This may not be a "short and hold" moment—this might be a shakeout before trend resolution. Stay sharp. Don't trade the cross, trade the context.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by dburgos0127
Dageedoo Follower Request $TSLA close up #Internals You saw how this very similar W/double bottom on #61fib worked out on AAPL... This is a 50% retrace W... I prefer #61 retraces, but with TSLA im not surprised with some extra volatility. Go with the flow... 186 first level to break, 198 next stop. then if strong enough hammer on 198 200 critical level breaks 10+ and youre at 220 like AAPL hit and people profit take. Below redline or Diamond mid point (176) idea is DEAD. LESSON TIME; Critical level breaks can bring quick moves 10-20% in a few days. I'm always "eyeing" critical levels on "Big Name/Mega Cap" stocks... ie; FB 500+ , would you believe me if I was "eyeing" AVGO under 1500... you wouldve caught splits on that n NVDA with critical levels in mind (1000 crit level for NVDA)... 3 big stocks all breaking through with these methods is not as strong as some might think, short term yes, long term questionable. Not everything is a critical level/ price "number" and markets psychology help determine these, usually round, usually act as resistance or support prior, see AAPL W... 1 2 3strikes then through at the old stock game... LESSON CONT; I have a very unique set of tools. Tools I have acquired over many years. Tools that make me a nightmare for women who want a man with a "normal" job. Tools like Fibonacci Retracements, Technical Patterns, RSI, Stoch, Multiple Timeframes (3Day is my fav), and Bollinger Bands with MAs. Be sure you find your own trusted tools. Because I will be here, I will find the patterns, and I will execute them. -Good Luck - Prof
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Prophecies_R_Us
11
We potentially about to see a HUGE move on TSLAWe broke a SUPER LONG-TERM BEARISH TRENDLINE (blue) on the weekly timeframe. + We have been RANGING for quite some time... + TSLA has a personality of explosive, crazy moves + TSLA builds HUMAN ROBOTS... (SUPER HIGH VALUE in my opinion, the potential for this is astronomical) What do we actually need for this move to materialize? We need the market in our favor. Lets see if the market will push strongly up or bleed down. Please also note that before explosive move previously that no one believed it would happen, the earnings reports of TSLA were RED the same as now. ALWAYS MAKE SURE YOU MANAGE YOUR RISK.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ZoharCho
TSLA 4H Analysis: Technical Outlook1. Price Structure and Trend: TSLA has been in a clear downtrend since January 2025, dropping from ~$475 to a key support at ~$258. The price is currently consolidating at this level, hinting at a potential pause or reversal. 2. Support and Resistance Levels: • Support: $258 (current level, with multiple bounces). • Resistance: $300 (next significant zone, based on prior consolidation). 3. Volatility and Squeeze Indicators: The "Volatility Squeeze" indicator (on the right) shows red and blue bars. Recent red bars signal a squeeze (low volatility), often preceding sharp moves. The shift to blue bars suggests volatility may be increasing. 4. Action Signals: • "X" markers (blue and orange) highlight potential entry/exit points. Recent orange "X" marks at the $258 support could indicate a buying opportunity if the price confirms a bounce. • If support breaks, the next level to watch is ~$225 (previous lows). 5. Conclusion: TSLA is at a critical juncture. A bounce from $258 could target $300, but a breakdown might lead to $225. Keep an eye on volume and volatility for confirmation. What's your take? Here is the link to the indicator
NASDAQ:TSLA
by tradingbauhaus
Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback. Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240. Influential News: Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA. Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today. Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth. Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects. Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9). Indicators: Weekly: RSI: ~50 (neutral). Stochastic: ~45 (neutral). MFI: ~40 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness. Daily: RSI: ~48 (neutral). Stochastic: ~50 (neutral). MFI: ~45 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback. Hourly: RSI: ~45 (neutral). Stochastic: ~55 (neutral). MFI: ~50 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing. Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support. Options Positioning (May 2025): Volume: Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets. Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245. Open Interest: Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest. Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0. IV Skew: Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope. Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor. Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240. Karsan’s Interpretation: Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250. Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250. GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range. DEX: +7M shares, neutral. Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key. ICT/SMT Analysis: Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence. Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245. 1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245. 10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM. Trade Idea: Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid. Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range. Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
TSLA at a Crossroad: Can 252 Hold or Will It Crack?🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart Overview) TSLA has formed a symmetrical triangle, compressing between an uptrend and a downtrend line. Price is hovering right near the apex, with a key horizontal level at $249.89, where it's showing indecision. * Support levels: * $239.67 → Previous demand zone * $217.11 → Major swing low and last defense for bulls * Resistance levels: * $257.85 → Overhead rejection zone * $276.91 → Major gamma wall and swing high Volume is thinning out as price coils tighter, suggesting a breakout is imminent. The RSI is neutral around 50, slowly curving upward, signaling slight bullish momentum building, but no confirmation yet. Price is consolidating on declining volume, which is often a pre-breakout setup. 🔧 Trading Bias:
Watch for breakout above $253 for potential long play toward $258–$265.
Breakdown below $249 flips bias bearish, with a retest of $239 then $230 likely. ⚙️ GEX Option Flow Insights GEX data shows concentrated gamma resistance at $275–$280, with the highest positive NETGEX sitting right at $275 — that's our Gamma Wall. Above that, market makers become forced buyers, creating a squeeze scenario. On the downside, there’s a strong PUT wall around $220 and $200, with -50.27% NETGEX at $200 acting as deep support. Notably: * IVR: 67.2 * IVx Avg: 108.9 * Call Flow: 15.2% * GEX Sentiment: ☘️☘️🟢 (Bullish tilt, but not maxed out) 💡 Options Strategy Suggestion:
Consider a debit call spread if price breaks $253 with volume, targeting $265–$275.
If price breaks $249, put debit spreads to $230–$220 could offer solid reward. 🧠 Final Thoughts TSLA is a coiled spring, and both TA and GEX show we’re at a key decision point. Let price tell you the story — react to breakout or breakdown. Gamma positioning offers high reward potential in both directions. 📌 Stay nimble, plan both scenarios, and use options to your advantage.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
Short term TSLA Price best guess road mapattached a TSLA trading road map; It will be fun to see if this is how things play out.short term: 1st try arrow now starting Mon small pullback,  start up Tuesday  peak by May 2? Then pullback  Starting May 2-3 Mid Mayto 288 chop for a week then back up  ( if the market tanks to new lows then the red alternate arrow is more likely as all stocks strong and weak  are sold.)    If TSLA holds 288 area then back up By July1 into about to early July (2nd try arrow)If iTSLA can do this and broad market isn't a mess then 400 will be reached in months ahead
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by mukCL
TESLA Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042525Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 260/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fibonacci6180
$TSLA : The road to 400 $In this space we have discussed about NASDAQ:TSLA multiple times. In one of our very recent blogs on 21 April 2025, we flipped bullish for the first time and presented a case to accumulate NASDAQ:TSLA between 214 $ – 250 $. Congrats to everyone who did it. On Friday’s close the stock is above 250 $ and its currently sitting above its 20-Day and 50-Day SMA. This can be taken as a first bullish sign and maybe the start of a primary reversal trend towards up. After some turbulent time and more than a 50% dip the stock is holding up very well. As Elon will be back on the helm of the NASDAQ:TSLA we can expect some more macro tailwind for the stock itself. In the daily chart below, we see that the RSI chart has flipped bullish and on the Fib retracement levels we are well above the 0.382 Fib retracement levels which is at 272 $. The next stop as per the chart is 310 $ @ 0.5 Fib level. My assessment is that once the momentum is flipped bullish the stock can end above 400 $ once this is all said and done. Verdict: Go Long $TSLA. 400 $ see you there $TSLA.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by RabishankarBiswal
Understanding Market Types in Drummond GeometryThe 5 Market Types: 1️⃣ Congestion Entrance – The market slows down after a trend and starts moving sideways. 2️⃣ Congestion Action – Prices oscillate within a range, with no clear trend direction. 3️⃣ Congestion Exit – The market breaks out of congestion, starting a new trend. 4️⃣ Trending – Prices move in a clear direction, either up or down. 5️⃣ Trend Reversal – A trend suddenly shifts in the opposite direction. 🔥 The 3 Close Rule for Trends A trend is defined when the PL Dot (a short-term moving average) remains on one side of the close for three consecutive bars. If this happens, the market is in a trend until congestion begins. 📌 Congestion Entrance: The First Sign of a Trend Change A congestion entrance occurs when the PL Dot switches sides relative to the close. This signals that the market is entering a sideways phase. Until the next trend establishes itself, the market will stay in congestion. 🔹 How to spot it? If a trend slows down and price closes on the opposite side of the PL Dot, it is the first bar of congestion. The market remains in congestion until a new 3-close trend forms. 📌 Congestion Action: The Market Moves Sideways During congestion action, prices move back and forth between support and resistance without breaking out. The PL Dot is often flat, and traders look for signals of continuation or breakout. 🔹 How to trade it? Identify strong support & resistance levels. Trade within the range (buy low, sell high). Watch for signs of congestion exit (breakout). 📌 Congestion Exit: The Breakout Phase 🚀 A congestion exit happens when the market leaves congestion and starts a new trend. This is one of the most profitable trading opportunities. 🔹 How to spot it? Price breaks above resistance or below support. The PL Dot starts moving in a clear direction. The market closes outside the congestion range. 🔹 How to trade it? Enter after a confirmed breakout. Use PL Dot & support levels to manage risk. Pyramid your position if the trend continues strongly. 📌 Trending Market: The Sweet Spot for Traders 📈 Once the market has exited congestion, it enters a trend. This is when traders can ride momentum and maximize gains. 🔹 How to trade a trend? Enter early & stay in as long as PL Dot supports the move. Pyramid your position for bigger profits. Monitor resistance & support to determine exits. 📌 Trend Reversal: Spotting the Shift in Direction 🔄 A trend reversal happens when the market suddenly changes direction. This is confirmed when three consecutive closes appear on the opposite side of the PL Dot. 🔹 How to spot it? PL Dot pulls back into the range. Resistance/support levels start breaking. A major higher timeframe resistance level is hit. 🔹 How to trade it? Exit your position before the reversal is confirmed. Look for a new congestion entrance or a trend change signal. If reversal is confirmed, trade in the new trend direction. 🎯 Key Takeaways for Drummond Traders: ✔️ Know the 5 market types. Each phase requires a different strategy. ✔️ The PL Dot is key. It signals trend strength and potential reversals. ✔️ Congestion action = patience. Wait for clear breakouts before entering trades. ✔️ Ride the trend. The best profits come from early identification of trends. ✔️ Monitor resistance & support. This helps determine potential reversals. 🚀 Master these market types, and you’ll be able to trade with more confidence, better timing, and higher accuracy. 📌 Do you use Drummond Geometry in your trading? Drop a comment below! 👇
NASDAQ:TSLA
by JordanMT
TSLA: An alternate (bullish) viewMy primary count on TSLA is still bearish. On my primary view, this move is supposed to be wave Y of Primary wave 4. If that is still in progress, then the current consolidation is only wave b of Y and TSLA should fall back more towards the lows of $100 area. But we cannot ignore the other side altogether. In this alternative view, Primary wave 4 was complete back in Jan 2023 and since then TSLA has been making a gigantic ending diagonal wave5 to complete the cycle wave 3. If that is the case, then we should see some kind of a bottoming pattern to complete wave Y intermediate wave 4 and resume wave 5 upward. So, how can we prepare for whichever direction things play out? If price to follow the bearish count, price would break below the $214 low and continue on a strong 5 waves C down to complete the correction. If price to take the bullish route, should not create any lower low from $222.79 and ultimately break above $291.85.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by mukit1