$TSM - testing key support at $166TSM - Stock breaking trendline support on the daily and moving lower. Needs to hold $166 support level or we can see move lower towards retest of $150. stock is little weak on indicators
TSM trade ideas
Consider Holding TSM for Long-term Gains Amidst Market Volatilit
- Key Insights: TSM is a cornerstone in the semiconductor industry. Despite
current market caution, its strategic partnerships with leaders like Nvidia
position it well for long-term growth. Short-term volatility should not
deter long-term investors as TSM continues to drive technological advances.
- Price Targets: For next week, consider a long position. Target Levels: T1 =
181, T2 = 194. Stop Levels: S1 = 174, S2 = 171.
- Recent Performance: TSM is facing short-term technical market caution,
reflected in its fluctuating stock price. Despite this, its key role in
advancing semiconductor technology maintains its appeal to investors with a
focus on future growth.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts emphasize caution due to market volatility, yet
recognize TSM's potential through strategic industry partnerships that
strengthen its long-term value. The integration with Nvidia is particularly
noted for future growth prospects.
- News Impact: Nvidia's investment in American infrastructure, alongside its
partnership with TSM, underscores TSM's integral role in technological
progress. This positions TSM favorably within broader industrial
collaborations, enhancing its growth trajectory.
TSMC Q1 FY25 : Taiwan in the middle of all this trade warDue to the trade wars the market had some sell offs
beta effect on tsmc however as trump plans to reduce deficit and advance local industrialisation
what could the future be for tsmc
currently im waiting for global market sell of especially on the nasdaq at around 23 to 24 k
so my long term outlook could be 44% worstcase 14% yield then bearish continuation
TSM Breaks Out of Downtrend! Can This Rally Hold? 📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* TSM broke out of a falling wedge pattern and is now retesting 181-182 resistance.
* Support Levels:
* 172.97 (key demand zone).
* 171.07 (critical support; failure here invalidates bullish move).
* Resistance Levels:
* 182.70 (current resistance; needs a breakout to confirm bullish momentum).
* 190+ (potential next target if momentum sustains).
* If TSM fails at 182, we could see a pullback toward 175-172 before another attempt higher.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* POC: 180 → Major liquidity zone; expect consolidation around this level.
* Value Area High (VAH): 182.70 → A break above could open doors to 190+.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 171.07 → A loss here shifts control back to the bears.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Strong bullish crossover, signaling momentum shift upward.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought territory, suggesting possible short-term consolidation before continuation.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 200-210 → Strong gamma resistance; unlikely to break without strong momentum.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 175-170 → High negative GEX zones, indicating strong support.
* If TSM drops below 170, expect high volatility and a possible flush lower.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 54.3 | IVx Avg 51.4 → Moderate IV, with increased put activity.
* Call Positioning 4.7% → Bears still in control, but a shift in momentum is possible.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play)
🔹 Entry: Long above 183 breakout confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 190 (next resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 200 (gamma squeeze potential).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 180 invalidates breakout.
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy 185C/190C expiring in 2-3 weeks for breakout confirmation.
* Sell 170/175 Put Credit Spread if bullish momentum holds.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Failed Breakout)
🔹 Entry: Short below 179 breakdown.
🔹 Target 1: 175 (first demand zone).
🔹 Target 2: 170 (highest negative GEX & major support).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 183 invalidates short thesis.
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy 180P/175P for downside play if rejection at 182-183 confirms.
* Sell 190/195 Call Credit Spread if momentum weakens.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bullish, but watch for confirmation.
* Key Pivot: 182.70 breakout = upside continuation, failure = pullback to 175.
* Gamma Risk: Heavy put support at 170—below this level, expect strong downside volatility.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TSMC's $100 Billion U.S. InvestmentTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, has announced a massive $100 billion investment in U.S.-based chip production facilities. CEO C.C. Wei made the announcement alongside former President Donald Trump, marking a significant shift in global semiconductor manufacturing. This investment, which expands TSMC’s footprint in Arizona, is poised to reshape the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry, but it also comes at a time of uncertainty in the stock market.
The Impact of TSMC’s Expansion
TSMC’s commitment to invest $100 billion will fund the construction of three new chip fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a cutting-edge research and development center. This will bring the company’s total investment in its Arizona complex to $165 billion.
Former President Trump emphasized the importance of this investment, stating, “The most powerful AI chips in the world will be made right here in America. It’s a matter of economic security, and it’s also a matter of national security.”
Technical Analysis
In Tuesday’s trading session, NYSE:TSM showed signs of recovery, rising 1.78%. The stock is currently testing a critical one-month low support level. A break below this level could trigger a selling spree, especially given broader market weakness. However, technical indicators suggest potential for upside movement:
The stock is approaching oversold territory, indicating that selling pressure may be overextended. A rebound from this level could signal a reversal. Although NYSE:TSM is struggling near its short-term support, bullish momentum is gradually increasing. The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level is currently acting as resistance. A breakout above it would signal renewed bullish sentiment and could pave the way for further gains.
If NYSE:TSM can hold its support and break through resistance, traders may see a push toward higher retracement levels. Conversely, a failure to hold above support could lead to deeper losses, particularly if broader market sentiment remains negative.
TSMC: AI Chip Titan – Still the King or Facing New Challengers?Good morning, everyone! ☀️ TSMC: AI Chip Titan – Still the King or Facing New Challengers?
(1/9)
TSMC’s riding the AI wave with record Q4 2024 profits, but with U.S.-China curbs and fab delays, is this semiconductor king untouchable or at a crossroads? Let’s unpack it! 🔍
(2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Q4 2024: Net income up 57% to $11.4B, revenue climbed 39% 💰
• Full Year 2024: Revenue hit $87.1B, up 34% from 2023 📏
• Sector Trend: AI chip demand soaring, per Reuters 🌟
It’s a powerhouse, driven by tech’s hunger! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Market Share: Over 60% of global foundry market 🏆
• Clients: Apple, Nvidia, AMD—big names rely on ‘em ⏰
• Trend: Expanding fabs in U.S., Japan, Germany 🎯
Firm, holding the throne but not without battles! 🚀
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Q4 Earnings: Record $11.4B profit, per Jan 16 Reuters 🔄
• Expansion: Arizona fab faces delays, full ops by 2027? 🌍
• Market Reaction: Shares up 81% in 2024, still strong 📋
Adapting, with global eyes on its moves! 💡
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Geopolitics: U.S.-China export curbs hit demand 🔍
• Costs: U.S. fab chips 50% pricier than Taiwan 📉
• Talent: Lack of skilled U.S. workers slows growth ❄️
Tough, but risks loom large! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Profit Surge: 57% net income jump in Q4 2024 🥇
• Tech Lead: 5nm mass production, 3nm in R&D 📊
• Client Base: Powers Apple, Nvidia, more 🔧
Got silicon in the tank! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: High U.S. fab costs, talent gaps 📉
• Opportunities: AI chip demand, new fabs in Japan, EU 📈
Can it keep the lead amid global shifts? 🤔
(8/9) – 📢TSMC’s Q4 profit up 57%, AI booming, your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: Still the king, long-term winner 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, but risks weigh ⚖️
• Bearish: Curbs and costs slow growth 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
TSMC’s record profits signal AI dominance 📈, but U.S.-China curbs and fab delays add caution 🌿. Volatility’s our friend—dips are DCA gold 💰. Grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust?
Demand Zone for TSM! 🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
2/27/25 - $tsm - lobotomiz-ably ez buy2/27/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TSM
lobotomiz-ably ez buy
- let the plebs argue about the ST nvda px action (spoiler - this party has just gotten started)
- TSM is the best semi sharpe
- seeing intc up today does give me a lil shiver. USSA takktics at their finest
- but don't lose sight of the obvious cash gen, clearly a move into the US is +ve for everyone
- lil lev dumparoo at the open allowed me to size up.
portfolio update b/c there's been a lot of rearranging furniture on the titanic of a market:
NXT: 35% deep ITM leaps
OBTC: 20%
TSM: 6% ITM leaps
UBER: 5% ITM leaps
BITW: 5% (new add today)
NICE: 2.5% (leveraged for move)
not talking about the incubation types. hope it helps.
enjoy the dip. remember the index doesn't paint the picture of where we're at. SVIX changed the game. we're probably 80-90% thru this sell off. still awaiting a final capitulation and for bill at pershing to do his best hollywood on cnbc while wiping tears from kramer.
be well. don't lose sight of the target.
HQ names. stack sat.
V
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)-Target of $287Sustained Buying Hype with a Long-Term Target of $287
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) remains in a strong buying hype zone, driven by industry demand, AI advancements, and global semiconductor expansion. The stock has shown exceptional growth momentum, with projections pointing toward a long-term price target of $287 by July–August 2025.
This would represent a 240% price extension from its $85 base level, confirming a sustained uptrend as investor confidence in the semiconductor sector continues to rise.
Bullish Outlook: Path to $287 by Mid-2025
Current Market Hype is supporting aggressive accumulation, keeping TSMC on track toward its projected price target.
The rally remains strong and uninterrupted, suggesting a clear uptrend continuation as long as broader market conditions stay favorable.
Key Resistance Levels: $180, $225, and $260 before reaching the final extension target of $287.
2026: Major Pullback Phase Expected
After reaching the $287 level, the market is expected to undergo a significant correction, leading to a price retracement in 2026.
Price could drop to $110–$118, aligning with a natural market cycle cooldown after such a major extension.
This pullback would serve as a healthy correction, allowing for reaccumulation before the next bullish phase.
Conclusion: Strong Upside in 2025, Followed by a Deep Correction in 2026
Short-Term (2025 Target): $287 as part of the ongoing semiconductor boom.
Post-Hype Correction (2026): Pullback to $110–$118, setting up a potential new accumulation zone.
With TSMC remaining in a high-growth phase, the next 18 months will be crucial for maximizing gains before a major cooldown phase begins in 2026.
$TSM long to 258/shareThis is a weekly of TSM, showing the accumulation (arc), and based on the depth of accumulation a mid-term TP of approx $258/share. They report earnings around 4/17, and as the world's premier fabricator, should continue to benefit from the insatiable demand for chips. Credit to Dr Newman for the fundamental thesi (he is a chips specialist). The chart looks very bullish and I'm in 100 shares with a few months to add before earnings...Best of luck.
-Mr Joseph
1/14/25 - $tsm - Best value in tech. $300 this yr1/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TSM
Best value in tech. $300 this yr
- among the obvious themes i'm playing in '25... semis, energy and bitcoin... NYSE:TSM is the best foundry money can buy
- "china china" yuh yuh. whatchu gonna do about it. we are buying these headlines, these guys literally *own* the whole space and the flywheel to fund 2nm in taiwan and 4nm in the US (greenlight this week by taiwan) is un-catchable.
- so in semis... actually... in *anything* that's legit-cap... where do you get 3.5% cash yields, top line growth of 20+% over the next two years (CAGR), high 70s ebitda mgns and probably room to beat on the upside... trading sub 20x PE.
- guys. it's not tough. stop chasing salad bots, space lasers and qubits ... and simplify your life. buy the NYSE:TSM dips, until something fundamental changes. so far fundamental momentum and monthly reports are rock solid. the last few q's have been smashes. and you're still buying below last quarter's blowout. don't overcomplicate your life, investing is hard enough.
$300 year end is very achievable with some bumps in the road. buy the bumps. ;)
they report thurs AM.
V
TSM - correction then 5th wave?I did a chart on this stock back in June 2024 that is kind of following the script. A lot of tech stocks and US equity is presenting EW counts that could suggest a decent correction could be coming soon. This count suggests that TSM has completed a 3rd wave and is now beginning a 4th wave correction.
Consider Going Long on TSM Next Week
- Key Insights: Despite vulnerabilities in the semiconductor market, TSMC's
established position and technology leadership position it favorably for
recovery. The positive momentum in broader market indices bodes well for
TSM, especially if inflation and bond yields stabilize. Watch for the
stock's ability to sustain above key support levels to maintain bullish
sentiment.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are as follows: T1 at 216.00, T2 at 225.00.
For stop levels, S1 should be at 202.00 and S2 at 199.00.
- Recent Performance: TSM has shown resilience in a recovering market, with a
current price at 209.32. The recent upswing in market conditions suggests
potential for TSM to fill previous price gaps, supported by improving
sentiment around technology stocks.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts generally express cautious optimism regarding TSM's
prospects. The potential for gains is underpinned by a recovery in consumer
demand and effective management of supply chain challenges. The favorable
outlook for AI and IoT adds to the bullish sentiment, pointing to a solid
infrastructure that can leverage emerging trends.
- News Impact: Geopolitical tensions and supply chain constraints have prompted
discussions about vulnerabilities in semiconductor manufacturing. However,
positive consumer electronics growth and strategic partnerships in AI are
likely to bolster demand for TSM's products, indicating a promising
landscape for the company moving forward.
$TSM "Buy The Dip" Value AreasWith the release of DeepSeek, it sent NYSE:TSM down a bit. If this continues over the coming weeks/months, here are some value areas to "buy the dip" if you're looking to get in or add more.
TsmObvious rising wedge here...
short anything near 225.. stop loss over 230.. target 206 gap close or trendline support
When this wedge finally breaks TSM will test 150
When is the best time to invest TSMC? 25.01.20Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).
Weekly Chart Analysis
Chart:
Looking at the weekly chart, TSMC has been in a consistent uptrend since 2008. The chart shows a steady upward channel with higher lows and no significant breaks below the trendline.
Key Observations:
Since 2008, TSMC has not experienced any dramatic corrections.
The largest correction was approximately 50%, while most other corrections were around 30%.
The overall trend remains strongly bullish.
Analyzing TSMC Using Pitchfork
Chart:
Using the pitchfork tool, the red median line indicates an overbought zone. In contrast, the blue lower zone signals an ideal entry point for long-term investors.
Key Insights:
While the price is still climbing with higher lows, the 15-year-long uptrend makes a trendline break unlikely in the near term.
If a correction occurs, the blue zone around $108 could provide an excellent buying opportunity.
This level aligns with the lower boundary of the yellow supply zone, suggesting it is a strong support area.
A decline to $108 would represent a 50% correction from the current price, a level where TSMC has historically rebounded.
Current Daily Chart Analysis
Chart:
Currently, TSMC is trading near its all-time high, making the suggestion of a 50% correction seem unrealistic. But let’s take a step back and think critically:
What is your goal when buying at an all-time high?
Are you setting a price target for the stock?
Or are you focused on your personal profit target?
If it were me, I wouldn’t consider this the time to buy. Instead, I would wait for a correction. If I believe TSMC is a great company, I would revisit the potential buy zone I mentioned earlier, combining it with my assessment of whether the correction is deep enough to justify entry.
Conclusion
Upside Potential: TSMC could go higher, but at this point, it likely won’t be my gain.
Current Risk: The stock is at an all-time high, and there’s no historical reference for what lies beyond.
Recommended Strategy: Avoid buying at current levels. Instead, wait for a correction. Historically, TSMC has rebounded strongly from pullbacks, and the same could happen again.
Final Thought: History repeats itself. Wait for the right moment and be prepared.
TSM One more push left.Taiwan Semiconductor is on very balanced bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.134, MACD = 3.500, ADX = 22.596) as it is unfolding the latest bullish wave of the 4 month Channel Up. The previous one completed a +35% rise. We expect the current one to peak on the same levels, thus aim for the top of the Channel (TP = 240.00).
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TSM IS LOOKING GOOD 15 JAN 2025TSM is looking good to go long at cmp.
CMP trades always risker as SLs are big.
I am going long at cmp
TSM - earnings playBought some before ER. Stock near ATH, but think has some potential for moving higher.
No stop loss. It will be trading higher medium term anyway as fundamentals are one of the best in the sector
TSM is strongThe Dow is down over 600 points, the Nasdaq has dropped more than 300, and the SOX is off by 135. Yet, TSM is just one day off its all-time highs and positive on the day.
Someone big is stepping in to scoop up shares here, and I’m buying right alongside them. When a stock shows strength like this in the face of a market sell-off, it’s a signal worth paying attention to.
What’s your take? Let’s talk in the comments!
Turning bearish after breakout refusalDown with the overall market, this will keep trending down if they all do. Reversing a new high so quickly looks imminently bearish to me. Selling pressure is too strong
