UPSabove 134, going to 148
an upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
UPAB trade ideas
$UPS Accumulation SchematicUPS accumulation after 10% gap down.
Looking like we could be in the final points of supply.
TURN ME UP: $UPS FORECAST 🛡Analysis inspired by the Royal mail acquisition by Czech billionaire, Daniel Kretinsky
I realised with e commerce growth delivery players are just as susceptible to growth
you know what they say
🛡 During a gold rush sell shovels
🛡so when everyone selling things online we gone need delivery services for the various websites
and who better than an established player with a global market already established
SWOT ANALYSIS
UPS Strengths
Strong Global Presence: UPS expanded its UPS Worldwide Express and UPS Express Plus to 40 countries part and now offers time-definite delivery shipments to businesses across 140 countries and territories. Additionally, it operates small delivery services in more than 220 countries under International Package operations.
Online Tracking: UPS has one of the most advanced online tracking capabilities in the industry, which tracks 295 million deliveries per day.
SMART Network: Effective delivery operations relies on seamless integration of collection and distribution mechanisms. UPS invested $20 billion to build its Southeast Metro Automated Routing Terminal (SMART) logistics network facility in Atlanta, which connects all systems and equipment in its entire network.
Excellent Customer Service: To attract, satisfy, and retain customers, businesses have to deliver high-quality service consistently, which is particularly important in the delivery service. UPS offers excellent customer service and has higher customer satisfaction than FedEx.
Highly Innovative: Delivering parcels globally on time requires immense innovation. To deliver each package on time, the Chief Information Officer of UPS developed a smart logistics network and won the Forbes CIO Innovation Award.
Fast Deliveries: Timely deliveries consistently is a major strength. UPS streamlines its operation with simple handheld devices for communication, scanning packages, customer signatures as well as complex automation like its GPS navigation and reroute technology. All these operational strategies ensure UPS delivers faster than competitors.
Competitive Prices: Offering high-quality service at affordable prices is the most effective way to attract and retain customers. In the logistics and delivery service, UPS offers competitive prices for overnight shipping and across all other different categories.
UPS Weaknesses
Reliance on US Market: Even though UPS operates globally, it relies heavily on the US market. In 2019, US domestic package delivery and freight generated $58.6 billion while international delivery brought in $15.41 billion. If the US market slows down due to recession, UPS will be adversely affected.
Adverse Financial Impact during Peak Holiday Season: For UPS to keep up with demand and deliver on time during high peak online shopping season, it has to spend way more than normal periods. The huge amount spent to handle as much as double the average daily package volume affects the profitability of the company to reap the maximum benefits offered by peak holiday seasons.
Operational Issues: The management has been postponing upgrades of equipment and delivery systems for decades. Using 19th-century infrastructure to operate in the fast-moving world of the 21st century is increasingly becoming a challenge but upgrading the system costs $20 billion, which is about 5-year worth of UPS profits.
Poor Employee Safety: Poor and unsafe work environment undermine the morale, efficiency, and productivity of employees. There are several cases of UPS employees being injured and one employee passed away after contracting the Covid-19 virus.
Burdening Purchased Transportation Costs: The delivery business is influenced immensely by transport costs. Purchased transportation cost is incurred when UPS uses third-party transportation carriers. Around 19% of UPS operating expense is directed to purchased transportation in the fiscal year 2019. If transport costs continue to increase, UPS can lose its profitability.
UPS Opportunities
Drone Testing: UPS has been testing and expanding its drone delivery capabilities. UPS tested its drone delivery technology at Wake Med hospital campuses, transporting lab samples across different hospital campus buildings.
Strengthen e-Commerce Operations: The E-Commerce sector is growing rapidly with new players getting into the business constantly. This sector relies on delivery services, which UPS can exploit by strengthening its e-Commerce operations and services.
Expand through Mergers and Acquisition: Mergers and acquisitions allow companies to expand quickly into new markets. Even though UPS failed to capture the European market fully after the collapse of its bid to merge with TNT Express, it can acquire small European logistics companies to increase its market share.
Diversify Portfolio: There are 3 primary business segments in UPS operations. For instance, it can diversify into the B2C ecommerce retail sector, supporting Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) and use its extensive global networkagainst competitors.
Expand the target market: UPS operates primarily as a business delivery service (B2B and B2C) for online retailers like Amazon even though the number of ordinary consumers using delivery services is increasing rapidly. The company can fuel its growth by expanding its target market to include ordinary consumers.
Expand to 7-Day Delivery: UPS has started a 7-day delivery service. Earlier, UPS pickup and delivery service operated for 6 days (Monday – Saturday). With the surge in online shopping and high customer expectations, now UPS has included deliveries on Sundays.
UPS Threats
Intense Competition: With stiff competition from FedEx, DHL, Amazon, YRC, Old Dominion, and many more, the market share and profits of UPS are always under threat.
Over-reliance on one customer “Amazon”: Ecommerce giant – Amazon represented about 11.6% of UPS revenue in the fiscal year 2019. As Amazon is gearing up to compete in delivery and transportation service, UPS revenue can be at risk due to any change in their relationship.
Trade Tensions: As a global operator, the stability, sustainability, and profitability of UPS rely on revenues from different regions. This makes trade tensions a major threat to the company.
The threat of Strike: Even though UPS employees have not gone on strike since 1997, the risks and challenges of working through the pandemic coupled with several contractions are fueling anger and frustration in the workforce. Even a short strike can cost the company millions.
Looming Recession: The pandemic has left devastation and destruction across the world with several countries already deep into recession. UPS pulled its 2020 earnings forecast after posting a 13% drop in profit in the first quarter. If the recession is severe, the company will experience a larger decline in profits.
Global Pandemic: UPS earning is projected to decline by 7% in full year 2020 as the pandemic brought the entire world to a halt. If there is a second wave, UPS could lose even more.
courtesy of: bstrategyhub.com
Potential Downtrend in UPSUnited Parcel Service has been falling since the middle of last year, and some traders may see risk of another acceleration to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the arrangement of the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The faster SMAs have mostly remained below the slower ones, which is potentially consistent with a long-term downtrend.
Second, the series of higher highs and higher lows since August may be viewed as a potential bearish flag. Further declines from here may suggest a breakdown is occurring.
Third, UPS spiked toward $145 after the last quarterly report in October but quickly faded. That potentially confirmed resistance near the July 22 close, one day before a bearish earnings gap.
Next, MACD is falling. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also crossed below the 21-day EMA. Both of those patterns may suggest the short-term direction is growing bearish.
We end with the weekly chart. The October 2023 low around $134 offered support in June. Prices tried to reclaim it last month but are now back below it. Is that longer-term level breaking?
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Is UPS only going to have ups from here?UPS august 2024 low looks to be the end of primary degree wave 2 of the cycle degree wave 3. The structure since then looks like a leading diagonal. That means, a sharp downward trend that we have seen today should take the price to retest the low again but should not break $123.25. But as long as price stays below $149, it will not be wise to jump on this freight train. If we see a strong bounce around $126, I will try to get in with a stop loss. But on a macro scale, no matter where the entry price is, it won't matter if the cycle degree wave 3 gets into gear. This ticker should deliver on time, every time :)
UPS look to buy around this level 105$, significant support there.
otherwise if 150$ is broken and consolidated above, this would be the bottom of this downward move then i will start investing
RSI and MACD divergence UPS supertradeRSI and MACD divergence UPS supertrade
rsi divergence, then macd divergence, then history.
3h timeframe
UPS - 1W - trading ideaUPS has reached the bottom of its downtrend channel and solid long-term support.
A probable rebound can be anticipated.
Risk/reward ratio 1:3
UPS - Entry Guide with Max LTF ConfirmationThe key to a sustainable trading career is avoiding early entries that don't have the confirmation we require. I am a huge customer of this fault as are many traders. In order to start taking safer positions, we wait for further confirmations. Now these confirmations aren't just to inhibit us and stop of from taking trades to be more disciplined - we are crafting them specifically to be as helpful as possible across all charts while still being able to maximize the trade when we do get in.
You may find better confirmations on your own and I would love to hear about them - this is something that I've been back testing for my own strategy and works well as long as the higher time frame context is sound and we are truly patient enough to wait for proofs on all sides.
Happy Trading :)
UPS: A Hidden Gem in the Logistics SectorUPS stock has been decimated recently, but this presents a prime opportunity for savvy investors.
If you, like me, believe in the future of e-commerce and global logistics, UPS is a stock you cannot afford to overlook.
As a leader in the logistics industry, UPS is integral to the global supply chain.
The stock is a key component in many ETFs focused on transportation and logistics, alongside giants like FedEx and DHL.
With the growing demand for efficient delivery services, UPS's pivotal role in the supply chain ensures it is well-positioned for substantial long-term growth.
Invest in UPS now to capitalize on the future of global commerce.
Trading at 20% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 15% per year
Dividend of 5%. So holding for the long term.
Profit margins down to 6% from 10% :(
UPS - Navigating the Evolving Delivery LandscapeUPS's recent earnings miss exposes a vulnerability in their logistics model. Consumers are prioritizing cost over speed, requiring a multi-tiered delivery system for sustainable profitability.
Catalyst:
UPS's Q2 2024 earnings report revealed a significant decline due to a shift in consumer preference towards lower-cost, slower shipping options offered by competitors. This highlights the need for UPS to adapt its traditional focus on expedited delivery.
Price Movement:
Upside Potential: Successful implementation of a multi-tiered logistics network catering to both speed and cost-efficiency could lead to a stock price recovery.
Downside Risk: Failure to adapt to the changing consumer landscape could lead to continued decline and potential market share loss.
Indicators:
Monitor news and announcements regarding UPS's logistics network restructuring and investments in cost-effective solutions.
Track consumer spending trends related to delivery options, particularly price sensitivity for non-urgent purchases.
Analyze the performance of competitor stocks like FedEx, especially their response to the evolving market.
Conclusion:
The delivery landscape is undergoing a significant shift. UPS's ability to adapt to consumer preferences for cost-conscious options will be crucial for their long-term success. While the transition presents challenges, the successful implementation of a multi-tiered logistics network could unlock significant value for investors. Careful analysis of UPS's strategic moves and market trends is recommended before making any trading decisions.
UPS - Buy the dip at this priceUPS just had earnings and hoping to catch the dip. There is a Weekly demand zone of more willing buyers between 116.61 & 120.30. The area showed a strong rally in price and took out 2 sellers' peak (in black arrows on the left) showing a great breakout and strength. I am predicting price will come down bounce from the demand zone (in green) and rally from there. If I'm wrong, I will get out at a small loss.
Please note that I prefer to use stop losses on all of my trades to prevent myself from gambling.
Entry: 120.30
Stop Loss: 116.61
T1 - 1:1 Reward to Risk (for break even): 124.35
T2 - 5:1 Reward to Risk 139.28
UPS LONG (read why)Hi everyone, I would like to point out that I have this stock in my portfolio and to date, although the price has undergone a significant reversal, I am still making money!!!
Today I would like to provide you with interesting operational advantages:
1 EDGE1: the stock, (YTD) has suffered a retracement of 18% since the beginning of the year. Analyzing history, 18% represents a level reached and exceeded few times in the past. This makes me think that the stock is more likely to reverse the trend, rather than continue the decline. A draw down of this magnitude violates the second standard deviation of the worst-case scenario.
EDGE2: as I documented in the image, in the last 10 years, a trade opened on July 19th (i.e. the day I am writing these considerations) and closed on December 31st would have led to profit in 7 cases out of 10 with a gain annualized above 10%.
Edge 3: from a technical point of view the title would appear to be back in distribution with a possible return to POC. This level will be the real watershed between an upward recovery and a pullback towards the lows of the year. A trade now would allow us to enter and place a stop loss at break even (0 loss) upon reaching the POC.
Let me know what you think, and if you like my analysis, give it a boost. Thank you
#ups139 Above trendline breakout possible
if sustain 143/147/150 can test
almost a month range breakout expected
Looking bullish ASAP on UPS!🔉Sound on!🔉
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UPS - Update and Trade SetupSince we pointed out the tapering last week, UPS is moving beautifully and preparing us for our entry model 1.
Keeping an eye on this as we continue to confirm tapering and seek to activate buying continuation.
Happy Trading :)
Bullish on UPSFalling wedge into support and earnings around the corner. This could be a good spot to start DCA.
UPS - Preparatory analysis for future swing tradeHere's what I'm looking to see on UPS in the coming weeks. Need to see further buy-side tapering because as of now, it seems as though red and green are in control there while on the sell side we're seeing orange and white holding.
Look for a potential bounce here as this is a strong level of support - but that is not enough for me to go long here. The algos don't lie!
Happy Trading :)
UPS Posts Q1 Profit Beat, Revenue Miss Stock up 2.33%United Parcel Service ( NYSE:UPS ) recently published its first-quarter results, indicating that while the shipping company surpassed adjusted profit estimates, it fell short of revenue expectations. The company affirmed its full-year guidance, with a projected revenue range of $92.0 billion to $94.5 billion and an adjusted operating margin of 10.0% to 10.6%.
NYSE:UPS , along with other shipping companies such as FedEx, have had to make adjustments due to the fall in shipping demand and revenue. This decline comes after record highs during the pandemic. In the first quarter, NYSE:UPS reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43 on adjusted net income of $1.22 billion. This exceeded analyst expectations of $1.31 per share and $1.12 billion.
NYSE:UPS 's revenue of $21.7 billion came in slightly below the analyst's estimates of $21.89 billion. Nevertheless, UPS has reported a higher profit than estimated after reducing costs, with total operating expenses down 1.4% in the first quarter compared to last year.
As demand for package deliveries has decreased, shipping rival FedEx has also seen a decrease in revenue. NYSE:UPS has affirmed its full-year guidance and expects to return to volume and revenue growth.
In the weeks leading up to the earnings report, NYSE:UPS announced that it would replace FedEx as the primary air cargo provider of the U.S. Postal Service. The change is set to happen once the current contract with FedEx expires in September, but UPS has not disclosed how the contract's impact will affect its finances.
NYSE:UPS shares initially jumped as much as 3% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the report was released. However, they reversed course and were trading about 1% lower an hour before the opening bell. NYSE:UPS closed at $145.36 on Monday, up 1.8%, but the stock is still down more than 7% so far this year and 25% lower in the last 12 months.
The decline in average daily volumes in its domestic segment and a 5.8% drop in its international segment is an indication of the subdued demand for small-package delivery. Besides, the company's profit margins have come under pressure due to higher costs associated with a new labor contract with the Teamsters union. The company reported an adjusted operating margin of 8%, the lowest in 2024. NYSE:UPS is absorbing 46% of the wage and benefit costs of the new five-year contract in 2024 and does not expect business conditions to improve until the second half of the year.
In summary, NYSE:UPS 's Q1 profit beat adjusted estimates, while revenue fell short of expectations. The company is making adjustments in response to the fall in shipping demand and revenue. The change in the air cargo provider of the US Postal Service could have an impact on its finances in the future.
UPS United Parcel Service Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Double Top on UPS:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PUPS United Parcel Service prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 142usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-4-26,
for a premium of approximately $3.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
UPS ValueUPS looks like heading into a disputing value territory, range looks solid, don't expect below or above for a while.
UPS can go PostalUPS comfortably consolidating on a monthly support level. I’m looking for a breakout to the upside - above level 154.50. I have a 3 month time horizon and looking for a 20 point move back into supply.
