XONA trade ideas
Exxon has more to give? Exxon Mobile
Short Term - We look to Buy at 81.80 (stop at 79.22)
Preferred trade is to buy on dips. The medium term bias remains bullish. Trading has been mixed and volatile. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode lower.
Our profit targets will be 87.06 and 89.10
Resistance: 90.00 / 100.00 / 110.00
Support: 82.00 / 75.00 / 70.00
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XOM Rising Wedge + HTF 68% FIB LevelXOM is consolidating within this rising wedge that is also in confluence with the HTF 68% FIB level as a larger pullback. If price breaks down from this wedge over the next two days, you could see a large move to the downside. Can day trade part of the move or swing the entire move.
STEPS FOR ENTRY:
- First confirm trend change by watching for price action to cease making higher highs and double topping at 85.54 OR making a lower higher
- Next wait for breakdown from wedge and break below 84.35 level to enter into puts. (Beware of pullback/retest of level before entering and use other confluence factors to give more confirmation such as volume, macd, rsi, smaller ma crossings, etc)
- When entering drop to LTF on the 5min chart for a more precise entry. (Written on chart)
- Once you have entered, look to take partial profits at 82.12 then full profits close to 79.29
***** Additional confluence - Price is rejecting at the 200MA on the 30min TF and Death cross formation on the 1hr TF (50ma falling below the 200ma)
XOM Rising Wedge + HTF 68% FIB LevelXOM is consolidating within this rising wedge that is also in confluence with the HTF 68% FIB level as a larger pullback. If price breaks down from this wedge over the next two days, you could see a large move to the downside. Can day trade part of the move or swing the entire move.
STEPS FOR ENTRY:
- First confirm trend change by watching for price action to cease making higher highs and double topping at 85.54 OR making a lower higher
- Next wait for breakdown from wedge and break below 84.35 level to enter into puts. (Beware of pullback/retest of level before entering)
- When entering drop to LTF on the 5min chart for a more precise entry. (Written on chart)
- Once you have entered, look to take partial profits at 82.12 then full profits close to 79.29
***** Additional confluence - Price is rejecting at the 200MA on the 30min TF and Death cross formation on the 1hr TF (50ma falling below the 200ma)
XOM new all time highs or just a repeat of 2014 price action?History is repeating itself like it did in 2014. We are guaranteed of $105 price action because of Biden embargo on Russian oil like in 2014, but now my question is, do we supersede this $105 all time high because of running inflation and War/Embargo? The trifecta can potentially can push AMERICAN oil companies to new ATH's making 2014 not look as bad as it once was.
How To Be ContrarianMy goal is to try to make traders and investor THINK DIFFERENTLY about markets. I believe as humans we seek validation, comfort in affirming our beliefs, and that manifests in the wild swings of the market when the narrative is proven wrong. Back in January 2021 I made an uncomfortable bet on Exxon NYSE:XOM . It was uncomfortable at the time because the narrative was that "dirty energy" was dead, oil was going down to $12/barrel, and EV was the future. These may very well all be true... but it was early. And in investing; being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable. At the time, Exxon was trading below book value (market cap < assets-liabilities on balance sheet), it offered a 7% dividend yield which they did not cut, and had just hit a double bottom. It was NOT obvious at the time... only in hindsight. But these are the types of contrarian trades that investors MUST look at to achieve outsized gains.
XOM BUY BUY BUY Hey everyone!
This one here is a great buy buy the pull backs and hold until 2023 and thank me then.
All my indicators show strong strong buy!
This is where everyone one should invest in not gold OIL we use so much of it daily. And cost have gone down in the past years where gonna see it take over OIL industry is back and stronger then ever.
XOM - Re-Testing the L-MLHXOM is super strong.
I use my favorite tool, the pitchfork, to apply projections of price, filtering, find entries, exits etc.
What many pitchfork traders don't understand is, that they can't just apply this tool to the chart. I see many doing it wrong anyways, which has to do with identifying the correct pivot/swing/pendulum swing points, and not being aware of the rules.
However, using the rules is equally important. Because the rules define the framing around this tool. Otherwise it's worth nothing, or even harmful to the trader.
One of the rules says, that if price is trading outside the pitchfork, it often is going to test/re-test the line where it fell/zoomed out of.
In this case it's the L-MLH, the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. As we see, the first test was just a couple days ago. Now, it looks like XOM is re-testing the L-MLH again.
What happens after the re-test?
a) price is either strong enough to trade back into the projected pitchfork again, recapturing the previous slope/path of price.
or
b) price will trade to the next WL (Warning Line), going south or eating up time by trading sideways.
As a firm believer in the rules of the pitchfork, I'm long this stock, playing for a re-test at the L-MLH.
XOM bullishI have been showing many positions with bearish direction recently. This position is meant to be a hedge to many of those, and this is one of the very few I could find that look really good bullish. So going to do the Apr 1 84/86 bull call vert. I like the trade a lot but it is mostly to offset many of the shorts I have open, so I am making this position larger than normal.
XOM: Cash Me OussideXOM Weekly Bullish RJ could be a bag and a half. This can be played to the upside or to the downside. If we are playing to the downside we could be making an outside bar by the end of the month to 73.49.
**Weekly Bullish RJ Trigger**: 83.45 with targets to 84.92, 86.88, 91.51
Upside catalysts : Daily 2-2 reversal at the Monthly Retest Area; Gap fill to 80.44; Two Down Retest Area at 81.60. I'll keep an eye on for a continuation through the 2D retest area and through the Bullish RJ entry.
Downside : Look for a strat reversal pattern after the gap fill or at the 2 down retest area at 81.60. There has been a lot of selling taking place since March and we could be forming one last bear flag (gap fill or at the 2D retest areas) then sell off to make an outside bar for the month. I have been seeing higher than normal volume of selling when compared to the buying volume which could be a catalyst for more downside.
I won't believe things until a strat pattern confirms on the weekly or higher timeframe. No trigger, no trade!
If we start to see a continued run on tech stocks I could see continued profit taking on this ticker with the cash moving into tech stocks to catch the rally. If tech stocks start to sell off, I could see money moving back into this ticker.