Bitcoin Making A Falling Wedge, & MACD.Bitcoin Making A Falling Wedge, and MACD crossing over, hold liquidity to scoop cheap BTC. SHare your thoughts.
BXBT trade ideas
Bitcoin = 31k or 11k?Please look at the chart in a different way, this is based on trend analysis, bottom and top searching and the fundamental analysis everyone should do to see more insights of the price movement. The price is always catching up to its true value #longtermview
Cost of mining one bitcoin is apparently around 13000$
BTC UpdateCurrently looks like btc has finished a downtrend with a truncated corrective wave, into a wave 1, then a (bullish) abcde wave 2 correction. What would follow is a wave 3 and 5. I do believe we go lower after this which is why I'm calling it a 5 wave X wave and not the bullish minor waves of a larger wave 1. It may take some weeks (month or 2?) to finish the X wave before lower lows. We must remember that BTC managed to acquire the lowest weekly RSI readings since inception. BTC will hopefully move up to "cool off" the RSI before going lower.
This specific count is invalidated if the rising channel fails and the E goes under the C. Even if that fails it could still be some sort of WXYXZ which would still be a valid 2 but this is less likely. All invalidated below the wave 1 bottom of course.
As ever - ignore timeframes. I do not do time analysis. The length of these lines are purely conjecture.
Bitcoin Trend as calculated through a Linear RegressionNumber probably go up now, if not number will go up around 7.5k/8ks. So, at most you may be risking a 20-30% draw down if you buy the dip now. So, that would be your risk, now how about reward? well, the sky is the limit when it comes to a hard capped sovereign, autonomous, censorship resistant, scarce Commodity with unique abilities pertaining to currencies, store of values and speculation. ( I know this shit is messy, but in terms of probability as defined by the bell curve in statistics, this trend regression can give us real odds of price reaching certain price ranges).
A lesson from Tesla's Bitcoin position..!These days everyone talks about Tesla closing 75% of its bitcoin position.
Let's evaluate it and see if there is anything that we can learn from it:
1- A Perfect Entry: according to Tesla's earnings call average entry price was $31,620..! Considering 27829 was the lowest price of 2021 and bitcoin traded only 22 days below Tesla's average.
2- Missing opportunity to realize +100% gain in less than 1 year, Twice..!
3- Closing below Entry with 170 million USD loss: Tesla sold $936 million worth of Bitcoin at the price of $28,888!
As you can see to be successful in Trading or Investing you need a perfect entry and exit strategy, but you should not forget that your gains are not yours unless you realize it!
As you can see Tesla had the chance to make a 1.7 Billion USD profit in 2021, but they lost that opportunity and shareholders should pay for Elon's 1.5 Billion USD gamble..!
Education:
Minimal requirements for a good effective trading/Investing system:
1- Entry Criteria
2- Exit Criteria: Target, Stop Loss
3- Profit protection Plan: Trailing Stop loss
The last one is very important because you should never let a winning trade turn into a loser one..!
If your trading setup lacks any of the above-mentioned requirements, you will lose money even if you are Elon Musk..!
Best
July 2022..!I think looking at the following trade setups needs no explanation:
July 2nd:
July 14th:
July 21: Are pinned to the chart
BTC: first 2 trades closed with 12.34% and 6% profit and the last trade is in 9% profit so far..! Stop loss updated to entry for risk-free trade!
#ETH: first 2 trades closed with 17% and 9.5% profit and the last trade is in 9% profit so far..! Stop loss updated to entry for risk-free trade!
Best,
another bearish BTC prediction based on R.Wyckoff distribution PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.
BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.
AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.
SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.
LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.
UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: CR - school.stockcharts.com
Bitcoin continues to bear marketHi, good day. Digital currency markets are still involved in corrective patterns. Note that an upward or downward trend is formed from a corrective trend, but you have to wait and see what action the market will take, which depends on investors' emotions, etc. And it bears the target of the market with the structure that it has presented until today, the bear market will continue (good luck and follow the market patiently).
BTC returned to the parallel channelBitcoin XBT has returned back to the parallel ascending channel. MACD and RSI are supporting this downtrend.
Trading zones to watch is: the middle of the channel at 21.7k and the channel's low line at 20k.
Considering recent bearish news it is most likely we are going to 20k again.
