🅱️ Lower High Daily TF Confirmed | Last Chance!Today Bitcoin closed the day at 47,770, which is the highest close (moving up) since March 2022, almost two years ago.
➖ The daily session wicked to hit as high as 48,505 —February 9, 2024.
➖ January 11, 2024 —Bitcoin peaked at 49,435 on a wick, with the session closing at 46,350.
I will not go into all the details but the dynamic between Bitcoin's price, the trading volume and RSI all point toward the end of this current move.
We can refer to this type of move in several ways: A "dead-cat-bounce," a "pull-back," wave b of a Zig-zag, etc.
The truth is the chart is screaming SHORT!
👉 The minimum target for this correction is set in the 30,000 - 32,000 price range.
👉 My projected bottom target goes much lower, between 22,000 and 26,000.
Remember to do your own research.
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BTCUSDM2025 trade ideas
$BTC stays strong, light volume thoughYesterday, CRYPTOCAP:BTC broke out of the symmetrical triangle we had spoken about two days ago
Today;
#BTC RSI is breaking out of downtrend it's been in.
Money flow pumped higher for #Bitcoin over last 2 days.
All this has happened while the volume is lower.
This can only mean one thing....... that is a lack of sellers.
We're still bullish on #crypto
48k breaks we should see 51k easily.
IMO - Buys on pullbacks.
Gap closed on Bitcoin futures.With a candle that can be seen as a hammer, the price closed the gap by taking buy orders that were in the majority compared to sells, the candle is evident. In the related analysis I had written that it would be a very useful level, given that gaps often work well as supports or resistances, in this case it has become a very useful support, a perforation of the minimum of this candle would be a sign of weakness, but let's see better the context in which we find ourselves.
At this moment the price of btc is correcting in the medium term (2/3 months), therefore faced with a movement of approximately 88 days, a correction could occur (which has drawn a new high) linked to this cycle, of course if if the scenario changes, the session count would also change. So far the price is moving higher and there is no reason to think otherwise, so my bullish hypothesis or scenario continues to be useful in understanding where we are now. Possible even very violent increases could appear before long, we are at the end of this correction which has not yet given the final blow, the classic strong decline, unless it was this weekly candle which we can call hammer, the last decline of the correction. Now we need caution and above all trust in the trend.
Trading Bitcoin FuturesTo keep actively trading Bitcoin short... I am watching and trading Bitcoin futures. This morning there was a 30 minute timeframe Spike right at the level I have been watching since after the ETF launch: the 50% Retracement of the "Sell the News" phase. I am looking for price to hold this level as Resistance and retrace at least back to 41000 in short time.
Higher Timeframe Update:
The area of Resistance that is the 50% of the ETF Selloff is where Bitcoin has retraced to over the last week. On Monday 1/22 I was able to hedge my Puts by selling shorter dated Puts against them to hedge and offset theta. I closed them yesterday.
Broadly, Bitcoin is still in this battle zone from the ATH to the November 22 low.
Mainstream Adoption
Back in the old days... Bitcoin was best traded spot on margin on exchanges. Now, all the reputable exchanges are KYC and the new ones popping up would never fool an old timer like me into putting money there. I have even received spam here on Tradingview from exchange reps trying to get me to do affiliate programs. No, never. Bitcoin is now a heavily traded asset with countless derivatives. It is truly mainstream.
Market overview: China finally introduces new stimulus measuresMarket overview: China finally introduces new stimulus measures. New rises expected for oil?
Welcome to our weekly market overview.
My column focuses on analyzing the most promising stocks and futures contracts in today's financial markets. Let's discover together the most attractive investment opportunities and how to make the most of them.
We will also analyze the general macroeconomic situation and I will provide information on my open positions to share my views and investment strategies.
Macroeconomics
Despite some disappointments in quarterly results, there is a positive mood for stock markets. Wall Street continued to reach new highs, buoyed by the stability of the U.S. economy and the prospect of an upcoming interest rate cut.
Europe is enjoying the benefits of decelerating inflation and good performance by large companies, while Asia is catching up after the announcement of new support measures in China.
The ECB held a meeting but was completely eclipsed by data on U.S. economic activity. Although the central bank kept rates and its rhetoric unchanged, U.S. GDP rose 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, exceeding forecasts of 2 percent.
This suggests that the economy may have a soft landing, as also indicated by the U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs that have returned to the expansion zone.
In addition, the risk of recession is easing further. The Future S&P 500 Mar 2024 reached new all-time highs and the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond reached a low from 4.23/25 percent.
Stocks
Highlighted this week are Netflix Inc and Tesla Inc.
Netflix overcame market doubts about its growth. The streaming giant reported a 12.5 percent increase in revenues for the quarter thanks to growth in the number of subscribers to 260 million (+12.8 percent). The company reported operating income of $1.49 billion, nearly tripling that of the previous year, and net income exploded from $55 million to $938 million.
However, Netflix's stock price is currently very high, so I do not recommend buying at these levels. Tesla is facing several obstacles at the moment. The group reported lower-than-expected fourth quarter results, with lower-than-expected sales growth and an annual decline in non-GAAP earnings.
The recall of 200,000 vehicles in the United States due to a software problem with rearview mirrors is just the latest blow to the company after a major recall just two months ago.
In addition, management's comments about profitability in 2024 and forecasts of a further decline in profitability have made the situation worse. In the near future, we may see a price decrease of up to 20 percent.
Futures
Futures in the energy and fossil fuel sector are performing well. Future Crude Oil WTI - Mar 2024 prices have been supported by encouraging economic data and ongoing Red Sea issues. Brent passed the $80 per barrel mark, while the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter.
This was also confirmed by January PMIs, which exceeded economists' expectations.
In addition, U.S. weekly inventories fell significantly from consensus (-9.2 million instead of -1.2 million), providing further support for rising prices. Due to recent tensions in the Red Sea, the price of crude oil, could exceed $80.
The Natural Gas Future - U.S. Mar 2024 are trading around $2.09/MMBtu with a weekly increase of 4.4 percent, indicating a slight recovery from the previous 24 percent slump.
According to the most recent government data, U.S. utilities withdrew 326 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage facilities last week, exceeding market expectations of 322 bcf. This was the highest weekly withdrawal since February 2021 due to strong gas demand caused by extreme cold weather.
Although storage levels are decreasing, they still remain above the seasonal average of 5.2 percent. Heating demand is expected to be low in the coming weeks due to higher-than-average temperatures until at least Feb. 7.
This situation makes optimistic forecasts for natural gas in the near future difficult. We may also see new lows in prices during this quarter, possibly falling as low as $1.60.
The value of Future Gold - Apr 2024 is stable at 2020 USD, pending the Fed's rate cut. Personally, I do not expect the Fed to cut its interest rate in the short term, so I maintain a bearish position on gold with a target at 1980 USD in the short term.
There is a technical rebound going on in the cryptocurrency market.
Last week was negative, the CME Bitcoin Future - Feb 2024 declined, dropping to around $41,000 and down more than 1 percent since Monday. The ether, on the other hand, suffered a more significant drop, falling more than 8 percent over the same period and now hovers around $2,250.
Among the reasons for the decrease in the ether's valuation is the postponement of the SEC's decision on Grayscale and BlackRock's Ethereum Spot ETFs. On the other hand, the approval of the eleven Bitcoin Spot ETFs had an effect opposite to investors' expectations.
Since the ETFs were approved on January 11, the value of Bitcoin has fallen by 15 percent, leading to an overall loss of nearly $200 billion in the cryptocurrency market. This was all predicted in my recent articles on cryptocurrency price movements.
Currently, the Bitcoin market is highly promising and I may consider buying to benefit from the possible increase in value in the second quarter.
Here are my current positions:
I have confirmed my purchase on the Hang Seng Future Feb 2024.
The arrival of effective stimulus measures in China has reinforced my bullish strategy. I am currently investing in Chinese stocks through a certificate offering an 18.5 percent annual return on two electric car manufacturers.
I have also confirmed my bearish position on gold, which is currently generating excellent profits, and a short position on the Future Nikkei 225 Mar 2024.
Given the high prices and the Japanese central bank's intention to abandon ultra accommodative policy this year, I expect a technical correction in the near future.
Bitcoin ETFs now available on TV. Easy Money As Never Before 😅Bitcoin ETFs now available on TradingView
NASDAQ:IBIT - iShares Bitcoin
AMEX:BITB - Bitwise Bitcoin
AMEX:DEFI - Tidal Bitcoin
AMEX:ARKB - ARK Bitcoin
AMEX:GBTC - Grayscale Bitcoin
AMEX:FBTC - Fidelity Bitcoin
AMEX:BTCW - WisdomTree Bitcoin
AMEX:BTCO - Invesco Bitcoin
NASDAQ:BRRR - Valkyrie Bitcoin
AMEX:HODL - VanEck Bitcoin
AMEX:EZBC - Franklin Bitcoin
SEC officially approves BTC Spot ETFs
Tip #1: use TV search box to filter, find, and sort all Bitcoin funds, just like the attached screenshot.
Tip #2: use TV search box to filter, find, and sort all Bitcoin futures, just like the attached screenshot.
Tip #3: Long 1st, Short 2nd
Tip #4: Enjoy the Money 🤣🤣🤣
$BTC trying to find footingCRYPTOCAP:BTC will likely see 1 more dip before it resumes it's uptrend, WHY?
There is still a decent amount of bullishness out there.
HOWEVER, if #Bitcoin can do the following:
RSI hold above halfway point
$ Flow gets better, which coincides with...
Buy volume increasing
Then the drop will likely not be harsh & we could have seen the bottom,
$BYC gap filled & more dataGood Morning/Afternoon Update
The CRYPTOCAP:BTC GAP was FILLED yesterday.
38k is minor support, don't expect a stand there but bounce possible.
Dotted lines are Fibonacci levels.
#BTC 37k price target very close.
#Bitcoin 32k is a stretch but anything is possible with a volatile asset.
Bearish moving avg crossover is shown by the yellow Circle
------
Shown elsewhere, see profile for more info:
A big X account speaks about positive divergence on 4hr chart.
Futures shows nothing of the sort.
Spot #BTC shows TINY divergence but NOT what should be used to trade or step in, IMO. Bounce? Maybe, we said CRYPTOCAP:BTC is at small support
Don't see any signs of turnaround for #bitcoin yet.
Sell volume is reducing, that's a +.
Next BTC GAP 32K -35KAfter successfully closing the gap around 40K-41K, Bitcoin (BTC) is now eyeing the next significant gap formed in October 2023. It seems likely that the price will gravitate towards the next gap zone at 32K - 35K before signaling a potential change in direction. Traders, take a moment to catch your breath, prepare your coffee, and stay vigilant. The market is dynamic, and careful observation is key to navigating the upcoming movements. Keep a close watch and stay tuned for potential opportunities ahead!
Bitcoin Weekly CME Gaps 2019 - 2024Here I've highlighted all the weekly CME gaps for Bitcion, showing all but One have now filled.
Technically, there's still one open just under $10,000 at / around $9750.
Unlikely this will ever fill at this point, but as of today Bitcoin filled the recent gap just under $40,000, which clears Bitcoin for runing higher.
However I still believe we'll re-test $38,000, followed by a bounce.
And potentially, if not likely, a deeper drop to re-test $32k before the bull run ensues.
Interesting chart just showing how often these do back-fill and re-test.
Bitcoin - Wave C is startingA lot of things about BTC is only clear in hindsight, so everyone is just predicting.
If you study Elliott Wave, the waves have so far been very perfect because BTC is a math model, but it is very hard to do it in real-time is because corrections can get complicated.
So at 48k, it is clear that price has retrace to the previous Wave 2. Unless we move up more, if not this tells us two things:
1) Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 is confirmed to be a 5-wave decline and not an ABC (big diff).
2) Wave 1 from Nov 2021 is an extension (nothing fancy about this).
These are clues that Wave C is just getting started.
Based on standard Wave C fib targets, CvsA or CvsB are unattainable as price will go negative.
The higher probability only one left is the 88.6% retracement level at 10k. 78.6% is at 16k which was already done.
Before bulls dunk on me, I am just a trader. Good if you have conviction to hold spot, but this level, it makes little sense to be long.
Never say never, because there are many unfilled CME gaps below. They may not always get filled, but mostly does.
My target is at 10k.
Just my view.