idea for next week.Australia’s May inflation report showed a significant increase, with headline CPI reaching 4.0% YoY, up from 3.6% in April. A similar trend was seen in Canada where May inflation jumped higher to 2.9% YoY from 2.7% in April.
While market has added to the rate hike bets for the Reserve Bank of Australia, a pushback to further easing expectations for the Bank of Canada may not be warranted given the escalating recession risks.
Central bank divergence plays remains a key theme in the FX markets, with AUD outperformance likely to build further especially on crosses such as AUDNZD, AUDJPY, AUDCAD and AUDCHF.
Inflation is no longer falling in most countries and appears to be stabilizing. In the latest reports, May inflation prints for both Australia and Canada have shown a surprising rebound.
However, with slowing growth and increasing employment pressures, some central banks are in a challenging situation.
AUD: Bullish prospects remain for now
Australia’s May inflation report showed a further increase in price pressures, marking the third consecutive month that the figure exceeded expectations. Headline May CPI reached the 4.0%-mark on the headline from 3.6% in April and 3.8% expected.