Range Bound OpportunityHere's one of the recent pairs on my watch list for this week. We can see that price has formed a confirmed range and is moving down towards resistance. For me a confirmed range means a minimum of 2 price rejections at a price level. It may or may not reach support this week. It all depends on the price momentum.
In general, when trading ranges it is important to realize the pros and cons. There is no guarantee that price will reach support. It may turn around and form a small range and breakout or may plunge right through support and breakout into a down trend. These are just a few of the possibilities. There's nothing guaranteed in trading. What we want is bullish evidence around the support area. I like to use candlestick patterns, but if you are new to range trading you an use any indicator or combination of indicators or patterns you wish and then you can decide on your entry method. I have used zones as well at times if you look at some of my past trade ideas. You can get in using a limit order, buy stop, or even market order. Stop loss is also personal and depends on your personal risk tolerance, so I won't comment much on that. Just know that a tighter stop will stop you out more, but get you a better RR. A more liberal stop loss will get you less stop outs but hurt your RR if the trade does go in your favor, so you choose.
Remember risk management largely determines the success of any strategy. Not the strategy itself. I will update if I see something that I consider bullish enough around support for entry. Any and all advice is simply my opinion and forex trading is risky. Follow at your own risk. Be safe and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Happy trading!
CADNOK trade ideas
CADNOK: Sell opportunity on a Channel Down.The pair has been trading within a 1D Channel Down pattern (MACD = -0.003, ADX = 20.845, B/BP = -0.0351) with the neutral RSI, Highs/Lows indicating that it is near a Lower High level, hence an optimal short spot. As seen on the chart the High - Low sequence has been fairly straight forward and although it may hit 6.4600 again, the current level offers a respectable R/R sell opportunity with TP = 6.3040.
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Trading the CAD pullback=> This week we have BoC on deck with a widely anticipated rate hike. The sales and consumer prints last week came in softer than anticipated and we see this as a great valuation driven pullback.
=> Here we are targeting the recent highs with stops at the lows. From a technical point of view we can see the early longs had their stops run on the data pullback.
=> For the longer term Canada remains in great shape, with almost completely free trade by the end of the decade on track.
=> From a capital flow perspective, funds have been hesitant to get long CAD via oil. The aim here is we are isolating the oil risk via an inline/neutral Norges Bank.
=> Best of luck to all those trading BoC this week.
Previous target hit. Approaching a 1W Higher Low. Long on supporThe last TP = 6.0866 hit and CADNOK has since rose within the long term 1W Channel Up (MACD = 0.038, Highs/Lows = 0.0111, B/BP = 0.0930) which is now pulling back towards its potential Higher Low (RSI = 53.641) near 6.27730. That is carried out within a 1D Channel Down (green channel, Highs/Lows = -0.0262). Once the low is made, we will be going long, TP = 6.500.
CADNOK may test the range high on a longer term time horizonCADNOK is normally a WTI/BRENT spread pair but in this instance, I feel that the Norges bank rate hike may be priced in somewhat. On the other end of the scale the Canadian Dollar looks slightly undervalued and if WTI continues on this amazing run we could see some CAD appreciation.
Long term I am looking for the NOK to pull back against most crosses as all of the bullish news may have come to a plateau. CAD, however, is waiting of a breakthrough with NAFTA and if this comes to fruition a rally may be in order. Looking at USDNOK and USDCAD this view seems to be supported as NOK is pulling back and USDCAD is showing signs of a reversal
4H Channel Down. Short.CADNOK is on a common Channel Down on 4H (RSI = 37.434, Highs/Lows = -0.0223, B/BP = -0.0495). It is now looking for the next Lower Low but is near two important 1D support levels (6.12584 and 6.0866). If they break then 6.04 will be the Lower Low. Our TP is the 2nd support = 6.0866 and we will pursuit 6.0400 with SL brought down on profit zone.
How powerful can a zone of support be?CADNOK is considered by many to be an exotic or at least minor pair. I'm aleady short on this one with 1000pts in my favour. My bet was based on a possible triple top and trend line of peaks moving south on the weekly chart.
This 8H chart shows that price has hit a broad zone of support at least 9 times. The latest push down has been a seemingly determined one. I had to wonder how powerful zones of support are? Is there a probability that based on numbers of times struck that price will disrespect the zone of support (or resistance)?