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Canadian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?USD/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3703 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3740 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.3644 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Can 1.3633 Construct a Bottom?The USD/CAD exchange rate continues to maintain a (sideways) pattern, currently trading around 1.37. Although the US dollar is fundamentally supported by the boost from the US non-farm payroll data and the optimistic expectations of trade negotiations in major economies, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. The Canadian dollar is supported by the strengthening of crude oil prices, and the exchange rate trend presents a complex pattern of mixed long and short positions. In the short term, if the exchange rate can effectively break through 1.3800 and stabilize above this level, it will open up further upward space. The next targets may point to the middle track of Bollinger Bands at 1.3823 and the previous platform resistance area at 1.3900. However, if it is blocked again at the 1.3800 line and falls back, it will increase the market expectation of "making a new low after a technical rebound". At that time, the supports will focus on 1.3640 and the low point of 1.3633. If the latter is broken, it will open up the downward space to 1.3600 or even 1.3550. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Long
by Ashbur
Oil's Volatility Meets Fed's Patience: A Path to 1.3643?USDCAD – Oil's Volatility Meets Fed's Patience: A Path to 1.3643? 🌍 Macro Landscape: Diverging Monetary Paths & Oil's Influence The USDCAD pair is currently navigating a complex environment shaped by diverging central bank policies and the significant influence of crude oil prices. While the Federal Reserve is signaling a "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance due to sticky inflation, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is in a more nuanced position, balancing inflation control with economic growth. This divergence creates a fundamental tailwind for the USD. However, Canada's economy is heavily tied to commodity prices, especially crude oil. Recent volatility in oil markets can exert significant pressure on the Canadian dollar. If oil prices remain subdued or face downward pressure, it could exacerbate the CAD's weakness against the USD, amplifying the impact of policy divergence. 🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed's Firmness vs. BoC's Caution Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows persistent price pressure, particularly in the services sector, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish bias. This suggests the USD may retain its strength as higher rates attract capital. Bank of Canada: The BoC, while having taken aggressive steps previously, might be more cautious in its future rate decisions. Any dovish undertones or hints at pausing rate hikes could weaken the CAD. Conversely, a resurgence in inflation or stronger economic data could prompt the BoC to maintain a firm stance. This policy divergence, coupled with external factors like commodity prices, creates a fertile ground for significant moves in USDCAD. 🌐 Capital Flows: Safe-Haven Dynamics and Commodity Impact Global capital flow models indicate a shift towards the US dollar as a preferred safe haven amidst geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties. While Gold remains a traditional hedge, the USD's yield advantage makes it an attractive destination for institutional capital. For CAD, its sensitivity to commodity prices means that capital flows are heavily influenced by the outlook for global growth and energy demand. A softening global economic outlook could lead to reduced demand for commodities, weighing on the CAD, and potentially driving inflows into USD-based assets. 📊 Technical Structure: Channel Breakdown & Bearish Momentum Towards 1.3643 On the H1 chart (as observed from the provided image): Price Channel: USDCAD has been trading within a clear ascending channel. However, the price recently broke below the lower boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. Moving Averages: The price has moved below the EMA 13 – 34 – 89. This bearish alignment (EMA "fan-out formation" in reverse) confirms a short-term bearish momentum is building. The 200 EMA (red line) is currently acting as a key resistance level, near the prior support turned resistance. Key Resistance (Sell Zone): The region around 1.36989 (aligning with previous support and possibly a Fibonacci retracement level) is now acting as a crucial resistance. Any retest of this zone, especially with bearish candlestick patterns, could offer selling opportunities. The 200 EMA reinforces this zone as a strong overhead barrier. Key Support (Target Zone): The price is projected towards 1.36431. This level aligns with a strong prior support and also coincides with the Fibonacci Extension 1.382 level from a previous swing, making it a high-probability target for bearish moves. A bounce from 1.36734 (a mid-channel support or Fibonacci level) could offer a temporary reprieve, but the overall technical structure points to the lower target. 🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations Scenario 1 – Sell the Pullback (Preferred): Entry: 1.3685 – 1.3695 (retest of broken channel line/resistance near 1.36989, possibly confluence with 200 EMA). Stop-Loss: 1.3720 (above recent swing high/channel top). Take-Profit: 1.3673 (initial target) → 1.3643 (main target) → 1.3620. Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Sell (if price consolidates below 1.3673): Entry: 1.3670 (break below 1.36734 with strong bearish momentum). Stop-Loss: 1.3690. Take-Profit: 1.3643 → 1.3620. ⚠️ Key Events to Watch: US PCE Price Index (upcoming data): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD. Canadian CPI (upcoming data): Cooler-than-expected inflation could prompt a more dovish stance from the BoC, weakening CAD. Crude Oil Inventory/News: Any significant news or data regarding global oil supply/demand can directly impact CAD.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
1
USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D10 Y25🔥👀USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W24 D10 Y25 TECHNICAL HOTPICK ! 💥💥 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅4H order block rejection ✅HTF 50 EMA ✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure to be identified ✅15’ order block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support whcih is a pullback support. Pivot: 1.3733 1st Support: 1.3650 1st Resistance: 1.3793 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USD/CAD - Channel Breakout (10.06.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3757 2nd Resistance – 1.3792 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
35
USD/CAD – 1H Chart: Trend: Bullish Reversal in PlayUSD/CAD – 1H Chart Trend: Bullish Reversal in Play Technical Confluence: 🔹 Harmonic Pattern: AB=CD 🔹 Chart Formation: Falling Wedge 🔹 Momentum Signal: Bullish Divergence Spotted 🚀 A strong confluence of bullish indicators is setting up a potential reversal on USD/CAD. The AB=CD harmonic pattern aligns with a classic falling wedge breakout, supported by visible bullish divergence on the momentum indicators — all pointing to upside potential. 📌 Trade Setup: 🔹 Entry (Buy Stop): 1.37076 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 1.36309 🔹 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.37843 🔹 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.38610 🔹 Lot Size: 0.17 🔹 Risk/Reward: 1:1 and 1:2 🔹 Risk: $200 💸 🔹 Reward: Up to $300 💰 📊 This setup offers a clean entry with defined structure, favoring smart risk management. If price confirms the wedge breakout, we could see a sharp move to TP1 and possibly TP2. ⚠️ Always monitor price action around key levels and adjust stop-loss accordingly. #USDCAD #ForexSetup #BullishReversal #FallingWedge #HarmonicPattern #ABCDPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #1HChart #ForexTrading #TradeSetup #PriceAction #RiskReward #DivergenceSignal #SmartTrading
by asimafridi
USDCAD Short Opportunity Description : USDCAD is setting up for a potential short — I’m watching closely for an upthrust into the highlighted zone to initiate the position. Here’s my current read: 🔍 Technical Breakdown: 1. Trendline Break Previous bullish trendline broken with conviction. Market structure now vulnerable to bearish continuation. 2. Volume Spike with Selling Pressure Notable increase in volume on bearish candles — suggests smart money exiting or early sellers stepping in. 3. Anticipating an Upthrust Watching for price to sweep the highs around 1.3695–1.3700, fail to sustain, and drop back inside range. This would provide a low-risk entry with tight stops above the highs and 5r+ down to 1.3652, possibly even lower. 📌 Trade Plan: Entry Zone: 1.3695–1.3700 (after upthrust confirmation) Stop: Above 1.3710 TP1: 1.3652 (structure low) TP2: 1.3600 (extended target if momentum builds) --- 🧠 Why This Setup? This aligns with key principles I trade: Trendline breaks often lead to retests followed by continuation. Rising volume on the break is confirmation, not noise. A failed breakout (upthrust) into previous supply zones is often the "last push" before price collapses. Let me know if you're seeing something different. This is how I’m planning to attack the chart today.
Short
by theeOperator90
Falling towards overlap support?The Loonie is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 1.3595 1st Support: 1.3434 1st Resistance: 1.3990 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
USD/CAD 4-Hour Technical & Fundamental AnalysisUSD/CAD 4-Hour Technical & Fundamental Analysis USD/CAD has dropped below a key support level, pressured by both technical and fundamental bearish drivers as the U.S. dollar weakens and the Canadian dollar gains strength. The 4-hour chart structure shows a potential distribution phase followed by a liquidity grab, signaling smart money manipulation before a possible continuation to the downside. Price broke down below the minor support at 1.36800, triggering short entries. However, a sharp reversal followed, hunting stop-losses and liquidating early sellers. This false breakout indicates a manipulation phase, where price seeks liquidity before choosing direction. If the price closes below 1.36700 with a solid 4H candle body, it confirms bearish intent and opens the door for a continuation down to the next key support, aligning with broader USD weakness and CAD strength. 📊 Trade Setup 📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 1.36700 (Sell on 4H candle close below) 🛡 Stop-Loss: 1.37310 (Above liquidity zone) 🎯 Take Profit: 1.34750 (Next minor support / 1:3 RR) This setup capitalizes on institutional distribution, manipulation, and liquidity hunting behavior, providing a clear bearish roadmap. Fundamental Outlook: U.S. Dollar Weakness Non-Farm Employment Change (June 6): Actual: 139K vs Forecast: 126K | Previous: 147K Slowing momentum in job growth hints at labor market softening, increasing the probability of a Fed rate pause. Trade & Fiscal Pressure: Reuters reports that 90% of FX strategists expect continued USD decline due to: Expanding federal deficit Unpredictable trade policy Over $3.3 trillion added to national debt from tax cuts and stimulus packages Canadian Dollar Strength The CAD surged to an 8-month high (1.3665 on June 5), supported by: Rebound in oil prices (Canada’s top export) Optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade negotiations A U.S. trade court blocking proposed tariffs, boosting risk sentiment 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
UCAD Bulls Look for 3rd Test After Sept. '24 Highs TouchOANDA:USDCAD Bulls were able to find support at the Sept. 2024 Highs after having traveled down a Falling Support for the past 2 months! Now we see Bulls pushing price higher creating a Rising Support with 2 tests having been successful and currently coming down for a 3rd test! Now Price has already broken a Previous Level of Structure which was a Past Resistance on June 4th. This level also lands right at the 34 EMA and based on the Bollinger Bands, this test will also be a Mean Reversion where Price after having traveled in one direction will revert back to the mean of the Bollinger Bands for Continuation, which in this case will be Bullish! After the 2nd Test of the Rising Support, we can see a Massive amount of Volume enters. Price also is trading Above the 50 on the RSI and is currently coming down to test that level. I am looking for Price to test the 1.3683 area and if Price shows support for a 3rd Test, this will be a great opportunity for Long Positions! Fundamentally, USD will be bombarded heavy news being CPI numbers with analysts forecasting a .2% Increase in Inflation! Also PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
USDCAD weekly overviewHello Traders, War in Persian Gulf could change the direction of this analysis. Any conflict in the Middle ease could make out two white zones be red and suitable for shot trades. in normal situation, only 1.37732 is prepared for long trades. *********************************************************** The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones. Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray. You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC. SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings. TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels. ******************************************************************* Role of different zones: GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them. RED: Just Short trades allowed on them. BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them. WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
by AliSignals
Bullish rise?USD/CAD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3691 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 1.365 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.3742 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets