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Canadian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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USDCAD Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USDCAD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.3792 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.3833 My Stop Loss - 1.3777 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 9 May 2025- USDCAD reversed from support area - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3980 USDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the support level 1.3800 (which has been reversing the price from April), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from March. The upward reversal from this support area started the active short-term ABC correction 4. USDCAD can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.3980 (target price for the completion of the active ABC correction 4).
Long
by FxProGlobal
USDCADUSDCAD Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): The Fed’s policy rate is currently around 4.25%–4.50%, having held steady in early May 2025 amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. Bank of Canada (BoC): The BoC has been on a rate-cutting path, with the benchmark rate at 2.75% as of April 2025, reflecting weaker Canadian economic data and inflation cooling. Further easing is expected through 2025, likely at a faster pace than the Fed. Resulting Differential: The widening interest rate gap of approximately 1.5–1.75 percentage points favors the U.S. dollar, supporting USD strength against the Canadian dollar. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Canada: BoC Monetary Policy Reports and Rate Decisions: Next key updates expected mid-to-late May 2025, with markets pricing in further rate cuts. GDP and Trade Data: Early Q2 releases will indicate how tariffs and global demand are impacting Canada’s export-driven economy. Employment Data: Labor market strength or weakness will influence BoC’s policy stance. United States: Inflation (CPI, PCE) and Employment Reports: These will guide Fed’s future rate decisions and impact USD strength. GDP Growth and Manufacturing Data: Key indicators for economic momentum amid tariff-related uncertainties. The widening interest rate differential between the Fed and BoC, combined with expected further BoC rate cuts and relatively resilient U.S. economic data, supports a bullish bias for USD/CAD in the near term. Key Canadian inflation and GDP data in May will be critical in determining the pace of BoC easing and CAD’s outlook, while U.S. inflation and employment reports will influence Fed policy and USD strength. The Canadian dollar (CAD) is historically and fundamentally closely linked to oil prices due to Canada’s status as one of the world’s largest oil producers and exporters. Here’s how oil prices affect the CAD: 1. Direct Correlation Between Oil Prices and CAD Value Canada earns a significant portion of its U.S. dollar revenue from crude oil exports. When oil prices rise, Canada receives more U.S. dollars per barrel exported, increasing the inflow of foreign currency into the Canadian economy. This increased demand for Canadian dollars to pay for oil-related transactions tends to strengthen the CAD relative to the U.S. dollar. Conversely, when oil prices fall, the CAD typically weakens. Historically, the correlation between oil prices and USD/CAD has been strong and negative (when oil rises, USD/CAD falls, meaning CAD strengthens). 2. Impact on Canada’s Trade Balance and Economy Higher oil prices improve Canada’s trade balance by increasing export revenues, which supports economic growth and boosts investor confidence in the CAD. The energy sector contributes significantly to Canada’s GDP and employment, so oil price movements have broader economic implications that influence currency strength. 3. Changing Dynamics and Recent Weakening of Correlation In recent years, the tight link between oil prices and the CAD has weakened due to several factors: A larger share of oil company revenues goes to foreign shareholders rather than being reinvested domestically, reducing the flow of U.S. dollars back into Canada. Discounts on Canadian oil prices (e.g., Western Canada Select vs. WTI) reduce the effective revenue Canada earns. Other factors like global risk sentiment, U.S.-Canada trade dynamics, and diverging economic fundamentals have become more influential on CAD movements. The 3-month correlation between oil prices and USD/CAD has recently dropped close to zero, indicating oil prices alone no longer dominate CAD valuation. In essence: While oil prices remain an important factor for the Canadian dollar, especially over the long term, the direct correlation has diminished recently. The CAD’s value now reflects a more complex mix of oil market dynamics, foreign investment flows, trade relations, and broader economic conditions. Nonetheless, sharp moves in oil prices still tend to influence the price action especially in periods of strong market sentiment or volatility.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Canadian dollar shrugs after mixed employment numbersThe Canadian dollar is steady on Friday, after a two-day slid in which the loonie declined by 1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3911, down 0.09% on the day. On the data calendar, Canada released the employment report and there are no US economic releases. The April employment report didn't show much change and the Canadian dollar has shown little reaction. The economy added 7.4 thousand jobs, rebounding from the loss of 32.6 thousand in March and above the market estimate of 2.5 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed to 6.9%, higher than the market estimate of 6.8% and above the March reading of 6.7%. This was the highest level since Nov. 2024. The rise in unemployment is likely a reflection of the US tariffs. Canada's exports to the US were down in March, hurting businesses that export to the US. If the tariffs remain in place, weaker demand from the US could significantly damage Canada's economy. The Bank of Canada released its Financial Stability Report on Thursday. The BoC said that the financial system was strong but warned that a prolonged trade war between Canada and the US could lead to banks cutting back on lending, which would hurt consumers and businesses and damage the economy. The report said that the unpredictibility of US trade policy could cause further market volatility and was a risk to financial stability. The Federal Reserve maintained rates earlier this week and Fed Chair Powell said the Fed was in a wait-and-see-stance due to the uncertainty over the US tariffs. We'll hear from seven Fed members on Friday and Saturday, who may provide some insights on where rate policy is headed. The markets have priced in a rate hike in June at only 18%, down sharply from 58% a week ago. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3928. Above, there is resistance at 1.3935 1.3922 and 1.3915 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDCAD – Bullish Continuation Setup potential for a second bullish leg in line with the trend. This structure suggests a classic 2-leg continuation pattern, with the current pause acting as a base before further upside. 📈 Trade Idea: Entering a long position after confirmation of consolidation breakout, aiming for the next key resistance around 1.4075. 📊 Entry: ~1.3910 🛑 Stop Loss: Below structure (around 1.3866) 🎯 Take Profit: 1.4075 📐 Structure: Bullish flag / 2-leg pattern
Long
by EhsanFibo
USDCAD – 15TF Technical & Fundamental AnalysisUSDCAD – 15TF Technical & Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis: On the 15-minute timeframe, the USDCAD pair remains in an overall bullish structure. Price action recently tested and breached the minor resistance zone at 1.39300, which coincides with a Fair Value Gap (FVG). However, this breakout was short-lived, as price reversed sharply, indicating a possible liquidity grab and subsequently breaking below the minor support level at 1.39190—now acting as a sell-side liquidity zone. Our short-term strategy involves closely monitoring for a bullish confirmation candle closing above the FVG, with a potential entry point near 1.39320. Stop-loss placement is advised just below the FVG, and the initial target would be the next resistance area around 1.39500. Alternatively, if the price fails to hold above the FVG and continues to break lower, we anticipate a bearish continuation toward 1.39000, aligning with the next liquidity pocket. Fundamental Analysis: The U.S. dollar has shown continued strength, driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell has indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding rate adjustments, offering no immediate relief through rate cuts. This stance, along with improved geopolitical sentiment following a U.S.–U.K. trade agreement, has bolstered investor confidence in the greenback. In contrast, the Canadian dollar is underperforming due to rising economic headwinds and trade uncertainties. The Bank of Canada has issued caution over prolonged trade tensions, highlighting risks to financial stability and consumer debt. Furthermore, recent Canadian employment data revealed an increase in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6.8%, casting further doubt on short-term CAD resilience. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. As always, wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see, not what you feel.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
Bullish momentum to extend?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 6.8% Fibonacci resistance. Pivot: 1.3891 1st Support: 1.3840 1st Resistance: 1.4062 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/CAD Bulls Emerge at Support- Breakout ExtendsUSD/CAD rebounded off the lower parallel of the March downtrend with a breakout of the weekly opening-range extending into pivotal resistance. Support now rests with the low-day close (LDC) / 61.8% retracement of the December 2023 advance / monthly open at 1.3778/98- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to mark downtrend resumption towards the 78.6% retracement of the September advance at 1.3714 and the March high at 1.3614 . A topside breach above this pivot zone at the median-line exposes key resistance at 1.3977-1.4010 - a region defined by the 2022 high, the 2020 March weekly reversal close and the 200-day moving average. A close above this region would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this week / a larger reversal is underway with subsequent objectives eyed at the 1.41 -handle and 1.4149/78 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line: A rebound off downtrend support takes USD/CAD into the topside of a multi-week range – risk of a larger recovery while above the weekly open. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3778 IF price is heading higher on this stretch – look for a larger reaction on test of the 200-day moving average. -MB
by FOREXcom
Potential bullish rise?USD/CAD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3892 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 1.3842 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.4058 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets