check the trendConsidering the price behavior in the current resistance range, possible scenarios have been identified. As long as the price is above the support level, an upward trend is likely.
CADUSD trade ideas
USDCAD, NFP impact. lets know the setup with targetHello Everyone as we have seen a shift in USDCAD rally from upside to downside, so I am expecting a selloff in the USDCAD further with very easy clean and clear setup for the downside.
As today is the NFP, keep the risk less, but the setup has high probability to perform and DELIVER THE TARGET.
USDCAD Could move 1,064pips up the next month.The reasons why I strongly believe this move will happen are the following:
According to the CFTC non-commercials are shorting CAD.
Non-commercials have 20,388 positions long and 68,914 positions shorts. This means that they are selling more CAD than they actually buying it. According to this info we could expect a move to the upside.
From a monthly perspective there is plenty of buy side liquidity in USDCAD.
If you look at the chart you will see two blue circles and a dollar bill between them . Those highs have not been liquidated yet. The price is aggressively chasing those highs. According to the explanation provided the price is extremely bullish because is moving to a strong liquidity area.
From monthly perspective the price already liquidates sell side liquidity.
If look at the chart you will see a yellow circle . The yellow circle represents the sell side liquidity that was liquidated by the price.
The price has bullish structure.
The price is making higher highs will doing so liquidating sell side liquidity.
There is a lot of optimists about the dollar getting stronger in the near future.
DXY has bullish structure.
The DXY is currently making a retracement. It is currently at 50%. We could assume that is very close to be ready because it took sell side liquidity as well.
In other words, the CAD is getting weaker and the USD stronger.
USDCAD BUY ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere on Usdcad price form a supply around level of support and is likely to continue moving up so trader should go for long with expect profit target of 1.45243 . Use money management
long time bearish signal for USD/CADfrom the technical USD/CAD is showing a long term bearish signal in weekly candlestick.
REASONS; 1] triple top pattern
2] ascending triangle pattern
USDCAD BEARISH MOMENTUM The price has been in an uptrend since September, making higher highs and higher lows. A sharp rejection from the recent high indicates potential bearish pressure. The price is currently hovering near a support leveL , The chart also indicates a possible head and shoulders reversal pattern. If the price breaks below the (support), it may continue down towards the 1.38542 level. If the price bounces from the support zone, a temporary bullish retracement could occur before further downside.
usdcad sell tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a downward trend, indicating weakening momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bearish crossover, further supporting the potential for a downward move
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 6 February 2025
- USDCAD reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.4400
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the pivotal support level 1.4290, which has stopped the previous corrections A, C , as can be seen below and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Doji, which stands near the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from November.
Given the clear daily uptrend, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.4400.
Trump proposes Canada to become the 51st stateOn February 1 , Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods, with an initial phase of $30 billion taking effect on February 4. Mexico also implemented counter-tariffs. Trump reaffirmed his intention to impose tariffs on European imports but did not specify the details.
On February 2 , Trump stated that if Canada wants to avoid tariffs and taxes, it should become the 51st state of the United States. He argued that the U.S. should not be subsidizing Canada with hundreds of billions of dollars, as the country does not rely on Canadian resources. According to Trump, the U.S. has “unlimited energy resources,” sufficient timber supplies, and a growing domestic automobile industry. He added that without U.S. subsidies, Canada would struggle to remain economically viable, whereas joining the U.S. would provide lower taxes, better military protection, and exemption from tariffs.
On February 3 , during the European session, the following market trends were observed:
U.S. stock futures declined by 1.5–2.5%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1%, reaching 109.50. EUR/USD opened with a major bearish gap, dropping to 1.0210, losing over 1%.
GBP/USD fell below 1.2250 due to dollar strength.
In Australia, December retail sales fell by 0.1%, which was better than expected but failed to support the AUD. As a result, AUD/USD dropped 1.2%, falling below 0.6100.
USD/CAD surged significantly to 1.4792, the highest level since 2003.
USD/MXN hit 21.2882, marking a three-year high.
After reaching a record $2,800 on Friday, gold corrected lower on Monday, trading below $2,775.
Upward retestDollar Cad, managed to show bullish strength after breaking through the 1.44000 mark, after having anticipated a potential drop. As price dropped after reaching the above high, price action is stabilising above the 1.43500 with an attempt to retest the above highs.
Settling above the 1.44000 and 1.44600 may yield to a continued rise. However, if the pair fails to rise and declines below the 1.43500, it may drop in search of bullish pressure.
Bullish USD-CAD for all 2025?Based on the pattern drafted on the graph, I expect patterns to repeat itself. If the long term resistance line (blue) is broken with 1M candle (closed above), the rally will gain further momentum. Good ratio of profit and loss.
Note that this is a long term prediction on 1M candle chart.
USD/CAD Exchange Rate StabilisesUSD/CAD Exchange Rate Stabilises
As we reported on 3 February, the decision by the US president to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada sent the USD/CAD rate soaring to a 22-year high.
However, after a round of negotiations between Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau, the tariff implementation was postponed by a month, which was reflected in the USD/CAD exchange rate chart.
Current USD/CAD Chart Analysis:
→ The price has retreated from the upper boundary of the ascending channel identified three days ago and has now dropped below its lower boundary.
→ The price has returned to and remains within the broad 1.4270 – 1.4460 range.
→ The ATR indicator has reversed from its peak and is trending downward.
Given these factors, it is reasonable to say that USD/CAD is stabilising after recent volatility. But what lies ahead?
The exchange rate may fluctuate within the 1.4270 – 1.4460 range, reacting sensitively to any news on Trump’s tariff policies and his startling suggestion of making Canada the 51st US state.
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USD/CAD H1 | Approaching pullback resistanceUSD/CAD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.4396 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.4512 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.4260 which is a swing-low support.
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USDCAD-BUY strategy 6 horuly chartThe pair had a rough ride upwards and followed by a similar aggressive down move. Now we have settled lower,and started recovery. the recovery may continue towards 1.4460 area is my personal view.
Strategy BUY @ 1.4320-1.4340 and take profit near 1.4445 for now.
USDCAD Range Trading: Key Support and Resistance LevelsUSDCAD Range Trading: Key Support and Resistance Levels
In the daily chart, USDCAD is developing a large range trading pattern, where the price has been oscillating within this range for the past 50 days.
The current support zone has been tested multiple times, leading to subsequent upward movements.
Despite recent price weakness, it is possible that the support zone may prompt a price reaction once again. Watch for potential reversal signs that indicate a change in the current trend.
Key Resistance Zones:
1.4345
1.4395
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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USD_CAD WILL GO UP|LONG|
✅USD_CAD fell again to retest the support of 1.4260
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bullish rebound and a move up
LONG🚀
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How will Canada react to Trump's tariff moves a month later ?When viewed from the monthly chart, I realised it takes approximately 4-5 years for the price action to reach the peak level, around 1.46.
There are many comments online saying that Canada should counteract with imposing tariffs on its energy to US and so on. Who's right , who's wrong ? I also dunno.
I am awaiting for a good opportunity to short this pair , how about you ?
USDCAD Trade in MotionWatching for price to hit 1.42857, aligning with our expectations before the Feb 6 deadline.
Market structure remains intact—keeping an eye on how this trade plays out.
📊 Replay all trades on TradingView for transparency.
#Forex #USDCAD #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
Potential bullish bounce?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has bounced off the pivot which has been identified as pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.4295
1st Support: 1.4176
1st Resistance: .4405
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USD/CAD Next Move ?Does anyone think this is a blow-off top driven by the tariff news, or could it be a breakout retest leading to further gains?
I'd love to hear your thoughts. Personally, I’m leaning toward a blow-off top reversal, but nothing is certain—only time will tell. Let me know what you think!
USDCAD POSSIBLE BOUNCE OFF THE PULLBACK SUPPORT Price is heading towards a pullback support level of 1.41675 from that area , we may likely see a bounce in price to the upside. A buy opportunity is envisaged from that area. Fundamentally, a weaker USD will aid the possibility of price getting to that point
Price rejects at a 10 yrs old resistance zonePrice has rejected at a major resistance zone creating a triple top resistance
The market has also broken out of our ascending trendline signaling chances of a bear run occurring in the near future
Price can pullback to retest our broken trendline before falling further down
USDCAD - 5 Feb 2025 SetupUSDCAD market turn to slightly bearish on H1 timeframe and the all the ema's has broken to the downside. Spotted nearest supply area (Red Rectangle).we have a chance to take a short position from this area.
Entry Position : Short
Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line)
Stop Loss : Slightly above supply area (Red Line)
Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea.
Thanks
Coffee Trade Team
