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USDCAD Bearish Continuation Setup📉 USDCAD Bearish Continuation Setup 🗓 Published: June 26, 2025 🕒 Timeframes: 4H & 1D 📍 Instrument: USD/CAD 📊 Technical Bias: Bearish 🧠 Analysis Summary USDCAD has recently rejected from the 1.3713–1.3700 resistance zone (highlighted in red/pink box) after a corrective bullish move. This area served as a strong supply zone where price was previously rejected. The price is now forming a clear lower high, and the recent failure to break above 1.3713 confirms short-term bearish control. The structure on both the 4H and Daily charts supports a continuation move lower, aligning with a potential bearish swing leg developing. 📍 Key Levels Level Description 1.3713 Major resistance (top of supply zone) 1.3700 Round number & resistance confirmation 1.3687 Minor S/R flip 1.3666 Short-term support 1.3657 Next target support 1.3617 Key swing low 1.3562 Final target (major support zone) 🔁 Trade Setup Entry Zone: 🔴 Enter on a 15M/1H retracement to 1.3700–1.3713 (ideal R:R) 🔄 or market sell confirmation below 1.3686 Take Profit Targets: ✅ TP1: 1.3657 ✅ TP2: 1.3617 ✅ TP3: 1.3562 Stop Loss: ❌ SL above 1.3730 📦 Confluence Factors Daily & 4H trend turning bearish Bearish engulfing rejection at previous supply Lower high structure building up No major demand zone until 1.356x ⚠️ Risk Note Wait for confirmation before entering, especially on lower timeframes (1H/15M), such as bearish engulfing candles or break–retest of 1.3686 level. Avoid trading if price breaks above 1.3730 – structure would be invalidated. 💬 Let me know in the comments how you’re trading USDCAD today, and don’t forget to set alerts at key zones! 📉 Good luck and manage risk wisely. Rendon1
Short
by Rendon1
1
USDCAD Trade Plan 26/06/2025Dear Traders, 🧠 USD/CAD Technical Analysis – June 26, 2025 On the 4H chart, we observe a confirmed breakout from the descending trendline, followed by a correction. Price is now retracing toward the demand zone between 1.3635 – 1.3610, which is expected to act as support. ✅ Support Zone: 1.3635 – 1.3610 📌 Resistance Zone: 1.3885 – 1.3925 🎯 Final Target: 1.4020 🛡 Stop Loss: Below 1.3515 ⚖ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1 : 3.17 The structure of higher lows along with the broken trendline confirms a bullish bias. A confirmation candle in the demand zone may offer a solid long entry opportunity. Regards, Alireza!
Long
by alirezak
USDCAD: Oil Price Weakness Weighs on CAD – Can USD Capitalize?USDCAD: Oil Price Weakness Weighs on CAD – Can USD Capitalize? Hello TradingView community! Today, let's analyze the USDCAD pair, which is showing interesting dynamics as the CAD faces pressure from falling oil prices. 🌍 Macro Drivers: CAD Struggles Amidst Lower Oil, USD Upside Limited The USDCAD pair is caught in a tug-of-war between the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and the US Dollar (USD): CAD pressured by oil: The Canadian Dollar has seen its gains trimmed, primarily weighed down by lower crude oil prices. Canada, being a major oil exporter, sees its currency directly impacted by these fluctuations. Oil prices lower: A recent truce between Israel and Iran is keeping crude oil prices significantly lower (16% below Monday's highs), directly affecting CAD's strength. USD's limited upside: Despite CAD's weakness, the US Dollar's upside attempts are being constrained by recent soft US economic data and persistent hopes for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy easing. In summary, USDCAD is seeing a slight upward tick due to a weaker CAD from oil price drops, but the USD's rally is somewhat capped by Fed easing expectations. 📊 Technical Analysis & USDCAD Trading Plan Based on the USDCAD chart (H4/M30) provided: Overall Trend: USDCAD is trading within an ascending channel, but shows signs of weakness near the channel's upper boundary. Price appears to be forming a lower high after a previous upward move. Key Price Levels: Potential SELL Zone (Resistance): Clearly identified around 1.36989. This is a strong resistance level, coinciding with recent local highs. Selling pressure is likely to emerge here. Key Support (Potential BUY Zone): Around 1.36734 and further down at 1.36431. The 1.36431 level is particularly significant, aligning with a major Fibonacci level (1.382) and acting as a robust demand area from prior price action. Moving Averages (EMAs): Price is trading near the EMAs (black, orange, red), indicating a consolidation phase and potential for a significant move. Projected Price Action: The chart suggests that USDCAD could pull back from the current resistance zone (1.36989) towards the support levels below, particularly 1.36431, before potentially finding buying interest to resume an upward trend. 🎯 USDCAD Trading Plan: SELL ZONE: 1.36989 SL: 1.37050 TP: 1.36900 - 1.36850 - 1.36800 - 1.36750 - 1.36700 - 1.36600 - 1.36500 - 1.36431 BUY ZONE: 1.36431 SL: 1.36300 TP: 1.36500 - 1.36550 - 1.36600 - 1.36650 - 1.36700 - 1.36750 - 1.36800 - 1.36900 ⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor: Crude Oil Prices: Any significant movements in crude oil will directly impact the CAD. US Economic Data: Upcoming reports on inflation and employment from the US could heavily influence Fed policy expectations and USD strength. Bank of Canada (BoC) Policy: Statements or decisions from the BoC will also be a critical factor affecting the CAD. Trade smart and stay vigilant! Wishing everyone a successful USDCAD trading day!
Short
by MMFlowTrading
10
USD/CAD: Momentum Turns South Again with Fed Cut Bets BuildingDownside risks flagged in a separate trade idea earlier this week finally materialised for USD/CAD, resulting in the initial target being achieved. With the price now trading marginally below those levels and momentum indicators still bearish, another short setup has presented itself. If USD/CAD continues to hold beneath 1.3650, shorts could be initiated below the level with a stop above for protection. The obvious target would be support at 1.3550, where the price bounced strongly in May. With market pricing for Fed rate cuts continuing to build, narrowing yield differentials between the United States and Canada, downside is also favoured from a fundamental perspective. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
USDCAD: If This Breaks, USDCAD Might Be Lining Up a Smooth DropUSDCAD tapped into a clear liquidity zone and showed signs of weakness at the top. Price is now hovering near a potential break of structure, and a fair value gap has formed just above. If we get that break, the idea is to wait for price to retrace into the FVG, then look for a clean continuation to the downside. There’s also a bearish trendline holding well, adding pressure to the move. On top of that, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, another clue that momentum could be shifting lower. No need to rush. Let the break happen. Let price return. Then act.
Short
by J4mesWick
Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar. The Spring Is Compressing.In previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key drivers of the US outperformance over the past decade. The US market dominance has been largely driven by the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach and significant investor inflows. Unsatisfactory International Performance Markets outside the US have faced headwinds including multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger US dollar and the declining influence of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, US equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also widely dominated by the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three big themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the world's dominant reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend implies a shift away from the central role of the US dollar in global economic transactions to alternative currencies, assets, or financial systems. Historical context and significance of the US dollar The US dollar became the world's primary reserve currency after World War II, as enshrined in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. This system pegged other currencies to the dollar, which was convertible into gold, making the dollar the backbone of international finance. The United States became the world's leading economic power, and the dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the dominant currency for global trade and reserves. The dollar has been the most widely held reserve currency for decades. As of the end of 2024, it still accounts for about 57% of global foreign exchange reserves, far more than the euro (20%) and the Japanese yen (6%). However, this share has fallen from over 70% in 2001, signaling a gradual shift and prompting discussions about de-dollarization. How De-Dollarization Works Countries looking to reduce their reliance on the dollar are pursuing several strategies: Diversifying reserves: Central banks are holding fewer U.S. dollars and increasing their holdings of other currencies, such as the euro, yen, British pound, or new alternatives such as the Chinese yuan. While the yuan's share remains small (about 2.2%), it has grown, especially among countries like Russia. Using alternative currencies in trade: Countries are entering into bilateral or regional agreements to conduct trade in their own currencies rather than using the dollar as an intermediary. For example, China has introduced yuan-denominated oil futures (the "petroyuan") to challenge the petrodollar system. Increasing gold reserves: Many countries, including China, Russia and India, have significantly increased their purchases of gold as a safer reserve asset, reducing their dollar holdings. Developing alternative financial systems: Some countries and blocs, such as BRICS, are working to develop alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT payment system to avoid the risk of sanctions and gain true economic and political independence. Reasons for de-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses dollar dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of new economic powers: Emerging economies like China and groups like the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts like the war in Ukraine have intensified efforts by countries like Russia to remove the dollar from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Implications and outlook While the dollar remains dominant, a more de-dollarized world is already changing global economic power. The U.S. may lose some advantages, such as lower borrowing costs and geopolitical influence. For the U.S. economy, de-dollarization could lead to a weaker currency, higher interest rates, and reduced foreign investment, although some effects, such as inflation from a weaker dollar, could belimited . For other countries, de-dollarization could mean greater economic independence and less exposure to U.S. policy risks. However, no currency currently matches the dollar’s ​​liquidity, stability, and global recognition, so a full transition is unlikely in the near future . Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce dependence on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization challenges the entrenched role of the dollar but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multipolar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments to the U.S. Technical task The main technical chart is presented in a quarterly breakdown, reflecting the dynamics of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD in the long term. With the continued positive momentum of the relative strength indicator RSI(14), flat support near the level of 0.70 and a decreasing resistance level (descending top/ flat bottom) in case of a breakout represent the possibility of price growth to 0.80, with the prospect of parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to all-time highs, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
by PandorraResearch
USDCAD - Long triggered We have entered into the discount area of the most recent swing point on USDCAD. With doing this we have taken out all the areas of liquidity within the trading range so it was time to look for potential long moves. Now at current price we have had a great example of AMD where by we Accumulate Manipulate and then the hope is that we begin to distribute higher. There was also a nice fair value gap that was left behind on the 5min So all that was left to do was execute. Let us see how it plays out. Win or lose great entry super happy with the trade. Lets see how it goes
Long
by BenFxLDN
USDCADThis chart shows a **USDCAD 1-hour analysis** with a clear **bearish bias**. ### Key points: * **Weekly Area of Interest (AOI)**: Around 1.37818–1.38109 — strong resistance area where price previously rejected. * **Daily AOI target**: Around 1.35953 — expected final target of the move. * **Price structure**: * The market is forming **lower highs and lower lows**, suggesting a downtrend. * Price is currently below the **50 EMA (blue)** and testing the **200 EMA (red)**, showing weakening bullish momentum. * **Volume Profile**: High volume node left behind above current price, indicating a likely area of supply/resistance. * **Expected move**: A **pullback and consolidation** is anticipated, followed by a **strong bearish continuation** towards the Daily AOI zone. This is a **short setup** based on market structure, EMAs, and volume profile, targeting a deeper retracement.
Short
by andreabiondo13
Bearish momentum to meet support on USDCAD: Looking for a bounceEvening, just wanted to share what I’m seeing on the USDCAD chart Price on USDCAD has been in clear bearish momentum, but we’re now approaching a strong support zone, that’s held firm multiple times before, as I marked it on my chart. Price is approaching the zone again and I am taking it into account for a potential bounce. I’ll be watching for bullish confirmation as usual requirement before entering. If that support holds, I’m targeting 1.38400 , totally achievable if momentum shifts. BUT, if this zone breaks with momentum, I’ll reassess it and stay flexible. 💡 Reminder: Patience is power, no entry until price shows me something worth reacting to. This is not financial advice.
Long
by TrendDiva
57
USD/CAD Battlelines Drawn at Former SupportUSD/CAD briefly registered in intraday low at 1.3540 last week before mounting a massive outside-weekly reversal off the yearly lows. The subsequent rally extended more than 1.9% off the low with the advance exhausting into resistance this week at 1.3795-1.3836- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance, the April low-close, and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range. Looking for inflection off this mark to offer guidance with the immediate recovery vulnerable while below. Initial weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the June range at 1.3639 with key support steady at the 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement at 1.3504/23- look for a larger reaction there If reached with a close below needed to mark resumption of the yearly downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 2024 low-week clow (LWC) at 1.3360 and the 2023 LWC at 1.3218. A topside breach / close above the 2022 trendline (red) is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger recovery is underway with the next major technical consideration eyed at 1.3963-1.4018- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high and the 38.2% retracement. A weekly close above this key pivot zone is ultimately needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend in USD/CAD. Bottom line: A rebound off the yearly channel is now approaching initial resistance at former support- looking for possible price inflection off the 1.3795-1.3835 zone into the monthly cross. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the 2022 trendline IF price is heading lower on this stretch / to validate a break of the multi-year uptrend with a close below 1.3504 still needed to mark resumption. -MB
by FOREXcom
USDCAD - Followed Oil💱 USDCAD Drop Aligned Perfectly with Oil Selloff Instrument: USD/CAD Timeframe: 15-Minute Date: 23 June 2025 Indicator: ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion 🔍 What Happened: While Crude Oil (WTI) began its sharp descent on Monday, the ELFIEDT system flagged a “DOWN” signal on USD/CAD — catching a clean reversal just above 1.3790. This correlation isn't random. USD/CAD often mirrors oil’s movement in reverse — and ELFIEDT picked up on that dynamic perfectly. As WTI tanked, CAD strength kicked in and USD/CAD sold off — just as our system anticipated. 💰 The Result: From the top, price dropped well over 80 pips in a smooth, sustained move that lasted for days. The signal: ✅ Caught the short high ✅ Delivered momentum without noise ✅ Confirmed cross-market alignment for confident entries When both WTI and USD/CAD fire in sync, you know you're trading with structure. 📌 Why It Stands Out: You didn’t need to know the macro correlation. You didn’t need a complex multi-screen setup. ELFIEDT simply printed the DOWN label, and price followed. One system. One signal. Multiple assets—aligned. 📈 When Everything Aligns, Confidence Is Easy The system gave short setups on WTI and USD/CAD on the same day — both delivering clean, profitable moves. That’s the power of ELFIEDT — built to read shifts before they become obvious.
Short
by ElfieTrader
1
USDCAD-SELL strategy 3 hourly Reg. ChannelThe pair is same as other pairs, in BUY mode (USDX higher etc). OIL is stead, and any action could lead to another attempt pushing OIL price higher. we have two items to consider, one being USDX upward potential, and second, OIL price increases. Technically we are overbought short-term and even 6-hourly is starting to look this way. We are above the reg.channel boundary, and indicators still positive. Strategy SELL @ 1.3800-1.3840 area and take profit near 1.3637 for now.
Short
by peterbokma
USDCAD Bearish OutlookTrend: Bearish (Lower highs and lower lows) Key Resistance / Invalidation Level: 1.38121 Current Price: ~1.3700–1.3750 range Expected Move: Further downside towards the 1.3500–1.3420 area unless price breaks and closes above 1.38121. --- 🎯 Trade Plan Setup: Look for bearish entries on retracements towards the 1.3700–1.3750 area. Invalidation: A confirmed breakout and close above 1.38121. Target: 1.3500–1.3420 range. -- ⚡️ Summary USDCAD remains in a downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows. As long as price stays below 1.38121, the bearish outlook is favored. --- ⚠️ Disclaimer This is NOT financial advice. All trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Short
by Forex_Int