CADUSD trade ideas
Shorting USDCAD following Canadian CPI dataThe Canadian CPI data came in higher than expected that dashing hopes of another large rate cut at the next meeting of the BoC. Coupling this with rising geopolitical tensions that have lead to weakness in the USD saw a fall of 0.4% in the USDCAD in yesterday's trading session. Overnight Canadian yields have increased while US yields fell.
The currency pair closed yesterday below 50% fib retracement and the rising trend established from September. The conditions appear to support a continued fall in the USDCAD.
I've put a sell on USDCAD with the following TPs
Entry 1.3952
TP1 - 1.3927
TP2 - 1.3882
TP3 - 1.3842
TP4 - 1.3822
SL - 1.4034
TP1 is set at the 62% FIB retracement level, the plan is to move SL to entry once this TP is hit.
Canadian CPI Inflation Accelerates in OctoberCanadian CPI Inflation Accelerates in October; Boc Still Likely to Cut Rates
Policymakers ‘may’ think twice about reducing the overnight rate by another 50 basis points (bps) next month following inflation accelerating to the upside. I emphasise the word ‘may’ here.
According to the October CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index) released by Statistics Canada, headline YY (Year on Year) CPI inflation increased to 2.0%. This marked its first acceleration in five months, rising from 1.6% in September (north of economists’ expectations of 1.9%) and immediately sent the Canadian dollar (CAD) northbound.
The release noted that gasoline prices fell less last month (4.0%), following September’s fall of 10.7%, ultimately bolstering headline inflation. In addition to this, the report also showed that shelter prices eased further, rising 4.8% from 5.0% in September. However, food (purchased from stores) showed prices accelerated by 2.7% from September’s reading of 2.4%.
BoC Eyeing a 50 Basis Point Cut?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has reduced its overnight rate by 125 basis bps since June, and along with the previous meeting’s bumper 50 bp cut, the central bank’s Governor, Tiff Macklem, left the door wide ajar for further policy easing.
Despite higher-than-expected inflation, price pressures remain around the BoC’s 2.0% mid-point inflation band of 1-3%. And we must remember that while it does show inflation increased, the rise in prices is largely in line with what the BoC expected according to their latest forecasts: ‘The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out’. This may explain the Canadian dollar’s swift correction in the CAD and the absence of follow-through after the release.
Markets are still pricing in around 32 bps of easing for the BoC’s next policy decision – largely unchanged compared to before the release of inflation numbers. So, in my opinion, with the economy still weak, a loose labour market and inflation at target, the BoC cutting rates by another 50 bps remains a possibility next month.
BoC’s Preferred Measures Increase
Between September and October, inflation also increased to 0.4%, bettering the market’s median estimate for a 0.3% rise and above the previous 0.4% decline. The BoC’s preferred measures of inflation also accelerated to the upside. The CPI Median rose 2.5% from 2.3% in September (consensus: 2.4%), while the CPI Trim measure rose 2.6% from 2.4% in September (consensus: 2.4%). Therefore, the average pace of inflation between these two measures is 2.55%, up from 2.35% in September. Additionally, the CPI Common measure was higher at 2.2%, up from 2.1% in September.
Where Does This Leave the USD/CAD?
With oil prices lower and positioning for the CAD also low (according to CFTC data), as well as the central bank expected to continue easing policy and the Fed’s moderately hawkish commentary, the recent upside in USD/CAD should not be a surprise.
However, while the USD/CAD is biased to the upside and has been for some time now, a correction is in play, and the recent inflation numbers added to the possibility of further downside. Technically, support on the weekly timeframe from C$1.3945 and C$1.3843 and two neighbouring support levels on the daily timeframe (C$1.3866 and C$1.3877) could be worth noting and possibly lend a floor for buyers to work with should the unit reach this far south.
Shorter-term flow shows H1 price hovering just ahead of support from C$1.3959, which happens to be a level that converges with a reasonably long-term trendline support, extended from the low of C$1.3472, and a 50% retracement ratio coming in from C$1.3960. What’s also technically appealing for C$1.3959 support is the weekly support coinciding closely with the level at C$1.3945. As a result, this area on the charts could have USD/CAD buyers return to the fold if tested.
Written by FP Markets market analyst Aaron Hill.
Bullish on USDCADprice has reacted to the 4 hourly Order Block. After the news release on CAD we expect to see a buy program start to unfold since news was a catalyst in form the manipulation during the Accumulation manipulation Distribution cycle @MaruTradesIcyTea
4-hr USD/CAD: Pullback Opens The Door For New BuyersThe USD/CAD pair has demonstrated a strong bullish trend, gaining nearly 300 pips since the start of the month. Despite occasional pullbacks and periods of consolidation, the pair's upward momentum remains robust, supported by the formation of a Golden Cross, where the 20-day moving average (MA) rises above the 60-day MA. This technical signal, often viewed as a historical indicator of continued buying potential, suggests further upside in the broader trend.
From a risk-to-reward standpoint, however, buyers may benefit from waiting for a deeper correction to optimize entry points. Recently, the pair dipped to a support level corresponding to the 38% Fibonacci retracement, but trading volume has not yet been sufficient to reignite a strong bullish rally.
Before the upward trend resumes, a further correction could retest the 1.3963 area, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level may provide a more favorable entry point for traders looking to capitalize on the prevailing uptrend. With the broader trend still intact, such a pullback could offer an advantageous setup for buyers seeking to join the momentum.
USD CAD Live AnalysisThe USDCAD price traded with clear negativity yesterday to break the minor support 1.4025$ and settle below it, to head towards potential test to the bullish channel’s support line around 1.3960$, making the bearish bias expected in the upcoming sessions, noting that this decline is temporary, waiting to resume the main bullish trend again after testing the mentioned support.
On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.4025$ will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish wave again.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.3960$ support and 1.4080$ resistance
Trend forecast: Bearish temporarily
USDCAD View Looking for the buy at the level 1.395 with reversal till 1.405 level.
Expecting the retracement or pullback till 1.39 and then to 1.382.
Chart is shared only for the educational purpose only.
Trade with own risk.
USDCAD, Bullish Rectangle BreakoutBreakout Of Weekly Rectangle
Breakout Retest
Healthy retracement of 61.8% fib completed
Towards new high Formation
1.Buy @ CMP
SL below Weekly Resistance
Target 1:4
USD/CADHello traders, the situation of the market is very interesting and beautiful, I expect the market to fall in a short time, of course, when it gives approval to enter our zone, but we can see that the market is in a very large flow and a buy trend
USDCAD We hit our First POI point. We needed to wait to observe the shift in the market structure with the bullish bias.
This is confirmed by the change of the market direction after breaking the last Lower High to create a new High.
On this direction bias, we notice that there are new breaks of structure that were caused by a consolidation or correction that pushed to break the previous high on that developing bullish leg, the correction was not retested, or mitigated.
Right here around this zone, we are starting to see the price coming back,
use your learnt entry models in the lower time frame structures to facilitate a roper entry.
GOOD LUCK
USDCAD sell limitUSDCAD formed Double Top with RSI divergence. Now after breaking its neck line and previous HL, It made new LL. After retracement at Fib Level 0.618 we will place sell limit entry
Break outThis broke out strongly and I think it is going to go up soon, after a pull back of course...
USD/CAD H1 | Potential bounce off overlap supportUSD/CAD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.4070 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.4020 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 1.4142 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level.
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30-mins USD/CAD: Further Drop Seems Possible
In recent days, USD/CAD has exhibited strong bearish momentum, reflecting a continuation of its downward trend. This momentum is further supported by the formation of a classic Death Cross, where the 20 MA crosses below the 60 MA —a widely recognized sell signal.
Following the sustained slide, the pair experienced a pullback, briefly retesting the area around 1.3980, which aligns with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. This move suggests the possibility of short-term consolidation as market participants assess the next direction. If buyer activity increases, a further test of higher levels near 1.3985—corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—could occur.
However, should USD/CAD fail to sustain values above this critical 50% Fib level, sellers may seize the opportunity to enter positions, reinforcing the broader bearish trend. This could set the stage for another move lower, as traders align with the prevailing downward momentum and capitalize on continued selling pressure.
usdcadUSDCAD ( U.S Dollar / Canadian Dollar )
EXP FIAT as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Order Block
Average True Range ExplainedOriginally developed for commodities, the Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a versatile tool used across various asset classes, like forex pairs and more. ATR helps traders gauge market volatility and make informed decisions, as ATR is essentially a moving average of a market's true range.
For traders, this is essential information because it explains how much an asset “moves on average” based on specific starting and ending points selected by the trader. This way, you can be prepared for specific moves when they happen. For example, if a market typically moves 20 points per day, and it has already moved 25 points, you might reconsider trading based on another indicator's signal.
To find the true range, you need three values:
1. Current high minus current low
2. Current high minus previous close
3. Current low minus previous close
The true range is the greatest of these three values. ATR typically averages the true range over the last 14 sessions, but this can be adjusted based on your trading strategy and personal preference.
How do you trade with ATR?
ATR is a key indicator of market volatility, aiding traders in evaluating opportunities and being a helpful component in setting stops and limits. ATR shows how much a market usually moves in a day; therefore, ATR can help set realistic profit targets and stop losses. For instance, if a market normally moves 20 points per day, aiming for a 50-point profit might be unrealistic, depending on your strategy.
By understanding and utilizing ATR, traders can better navigate market volatility and make more informed trading decisions.
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USD CAD short opportunity for swing traders This analysis is intended for long-term and swing traders. There appears to be a good opportunity to short USD/CAD. Please set your Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) levels according to your trading strategy.
Please note, this is not financial advice—it's purely for educational and training purposes.
Good luck!
USDCAD upside target 1.426On the weekly chart, USDCAD continues to rise, and the bullish trend is obvious. At present, the effective support of the market is around 1.396. If it does not break through the retracement, it is expected to continue to rise, and the upward target is around 1.426.
USDCAD: ITF CURVE ANALYSIS (5D/12H) - DOWNTREND✨ USDCAD: ITF CURVE ANALYSIS (5D/12H) ✨ (DOWNTREND)
SLO2 @ 1.40354 ⏳
SLO1 @ 1.4020 ⏳
MO @ 1.4000 - TIRGGERED (FOR THE BRAVE)
SSO1 @ 1.38219 ⏳
TP1 @ 1.34155
TP2 @ 1.30740
TP3 @ 1.28224
TP4 @ 1.24338
TP5 @ 1.2150 (Secret TP)
BLO1 @ 1.23404 ⏳ (DO NOT SET - ALLOW PA TO PASS/THEN SET AS BSO)
BLO2 @ 1.21137 ⏳
🔑
BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER
BSO = BUY STOP ORDER
ITF = INTERMEDIATE TIME FRAME
MO = MARKET ORDER
PA = PRICE ACTION
SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER
SSO = SELL STOP ORDER
TP = TAKE PROFIT
NOTE: This pair owes me money.... angry trade. FOR VIEWING PURPOSES ONLY.....LOL
Intermediate time frames (4 hours to 6 day):
— Offer a clearer picture of the underlying trend compared to short-term frames.
— Provide more opportunities for confirmation signals and technical analysis.
— Allow for more flexible trading schedules, trades can be held overnight.
— Suitable for swing traders and some positional traders.
USDCAD short in my IdeaAccording to my radar this Pair will go down, please trade your plan and trade wisely. This is not a financial advice.
