USDCAD BUYBy utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, historical patterns, , we can formulate a hypothesis that the market might follow a similar trajectory if bullish sentiment prevails.
CADUSD trade ideas
USDCAD Bearish OutlookTrend: Bearish (Lower highs and lower lows)
Key Resistance / Invalidation Level: 1.38121
Current Price: ~1.3700–1.3750 range
Expected Move: Further downside towards the 1.3500–1.3420 area unless price breaks and closes above 1.38121.
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🎯 Trade Plan
Setup: Look for bearish entries on retracements towards the 1.3700–1.3750 area.
Invalidation: A confirmed breakout and close above 1.38121.
Target: 1.3500–1.3420 range.
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⚡️ Summary
USDCAD remains in a downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows. As long as price stays below 1.38121, the bearish outlook is favored.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This is NOT financial advice. All trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
The End of A Trend & The Start of A New OneA few weeks ago we made an amazing bearish call of the $USDCAD. Now that it's come to an end, the market is showing signs of a potential reversal.
In this video we're going to talk about how to identify a potential reversal in trend and of course show you how I'm looking to trade it.
Please leave any questions, comments or shared ideas below.
Akil
USD/CAD: Failed Break Leaves Bears in ControlWhether it’s Monday’s bearish pin candle, the rejection at the 50-day moving average, or what increasingly looks like an evening star pattern forming, directional risks for USD/CAD look to be skewing lower following the false break of 1.3750.
Those looking to position for renewed weakness could initiate shorts beneath 1.3750, with a stop above the level to guard against a reversal. 1.3650 and 1.3550 both stand as prospective targets, depending on the risk-reward profile you're seeking.
While momentum indicators are off their lows, with RSI (14) rolling over beneath 50 and MACD still in negative territory, the overall picture continues to favour downside over upside.
For those considering the setup, be aware Canadian inflation data will be released later Tuesday, with the key core rate (the average of the median and trimmed mean reads) expected to ease marginally to an annual clip of 3%. While offshore factors remain the dominant driver of USD/CAD moves, a stronger-than-expected result would likely benefit the trade.
Good luck!
DS
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows
🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding.
Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs).
🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side.
🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support.
Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift.
🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD.
📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD.
💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action
Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone.
Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540).
Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed.
Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum.
📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640.
📈 3. Retail Sentiment
77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646.
Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790.
📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed.
📊 4. Seasonality
June is historically weak for USD/CAD:
5Y Avg: -0.0118
2Y Avg: -0.0081
The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month.
📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
USD/CAD Trap in Progress? Smart Money Flips BearishUSD/CAD is currently in a rebalancing phase after the strong downside correction seen over recent weeks. Following a rejection in the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, price retraced down to a major demand area between 1.3500 and 1.3650, where it has shown a notable bullish reaction. The pair is now trading at 1.3734, and multi-frame data suggests we are in a transitional phase—not yet a confirmed bullish trend reversal.
COT Report – Institutional Positioning
The latest Commitments of Traders data (June 10th) reveals critical signals:
Commercials (hedgers and large institutions) have aggressively increased their long exposure on CAD, adding +27,999 contracts. This indicates strong expectations of Canadian dollar appreciation—bearish implications for USD/CAD in the medium term.
Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced their short CAD exposure by -14,319 contracts, signaling that speculative players are starting to unwind long USD/CAD positions.
Overall, the net shift shows institutional sentiment turning bearish on the pair, potentially pointing to a deeper downside once the current technical pullback completes.
USD Index COT – Dollar Momentum Weakening
On the USD Index, Non-Comms have added +1,279 long contracts, but positioning remains moderate. Commercials are flat, suggesting the dollar lacks strong bullish backing. This makes any sustained USD/CAD rally structurally fragile.
Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are 57% short and 43% long on USD/CAD. Although not extreme, this imbalance suggests confidence among retail participants in a bearish move—often preceding a short-term upward squeeze before an eventual trend continuation.
We could therefore see price move toward 1.3900 as a liquidity grab, setting the stage for a larger reversal.
Technical Analysis – Outlook
Key highlights:
A strong bullish reaction occurred from the 1.3500–1.3650 demand zone, previously well-respected.
The weekly RSI is still below the 50-level but is turning upward—momentum is improving.
Price structure shows room for a pullback to the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, which aligns with higher-timeframe order blocks.
This zone remains a critical resistance, and unless the macro and positioning context changes, a renewed bearish impulse is expected from this area.
Trading Outlook
The current picture presents a tactical short-term long opportunity, followed by a potential structural short setup.
📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Pullback (in play):
With price above 1.3700 and consolidating, there’s space for a rally toward the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone. Ideal for short-term targets.
📉 Scenario 2 – Structural Short (priority bias):
Should price reach 1.3950–1.4000 and show bearish confirmation (e.g., engulfing, doji, rejection on H4/H1), this would be a prime area to initiate swing shorts, targeting 1.3600 and eventually 1.3450.
✅ Final Bias: Structural Bearish – Corrective Bullish
Watch for potential false breakouts above 1.3800–1.3900 to liquidate retail shorts before a more meaningful downside move. The sharp increase in commercial net long CAD positions supports a bearish USD/CAD bias for the coming weeks.
Market tapped on Our Order Block which is our mitigation zonePrice just tapped on the order Block which we might look for bullish trend
Looking to short USDCADPrice mitigates a 4h fvg and Monday opening price(New York time) has taken out sell side liquidity and gave a quick market structure shift to the down side confirming the set up. Looking to short at the median of a 5m fvg that resulted in the MSS. Target is a 1h inverted fvg which aligns with the 50% mark of the Fibonacci range.
USDCAD - Bullish Falling WedgeHello Traders !
The USDCAD price formed a falling wedge pattern.
Currently, The resistance line is broken!
So, I expect a bullish move🚀
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TARGET: 1.37490🎯
USDCAD LongUSDCAD is now net long on the regression break.
I am considering this trades as the positive roll make it attractive.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/CAD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3703
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3647
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3815
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
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USDCAD DETAILED ANALYSISUSDCAD has formed a classic falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, with price currently pressing against the upper trendline resistance near 1.37300. This is a high-probability bullish reversal setup, and the pair is showing early signs of a potential breakout. The recent bullish momentum from the lows suggests buyers are stepping in aggressively, and if we get a strong daily close above the wedge, it could confirm the start of a new upward leg. My near-term target for this breakout is 1.47300, offering an excellent risk-reward profile.
From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian Dollar is currently under pressure due to weakening oil prices and softening domestic economic data. The Bank of Canada has recently signaled a dovish tilt following its latest rate cut in June, citing slower GDP growth and easing inflation. On the other hand, the US Dollar is finding renewed strength backed by sticky inflation and the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoC is creating a favorable environment for USDCAD bulls.
Technically, the confluence of wedge resistance, bullish divergence on the RSI, and a clear higher low formation all point toward a breakout scenario. A break above 1.37600–1.38000 would unlock the next wave of bullish continuation, potentially accelerating momentum toward the 1.47 handle. This area also aligns with the previous March highs, making it a strong technical magnet.
I remain bullish on USDCAD and will be watching the breakout closely this week. If the pair holds above 1.36800 and breaks structure convincingly, I’ll be adding to longs on confirmation. The current setup presents a textbook breakout opportunity supported by strong fundamentals, technical structure, and market sentiment leaning in favor of the USD.
USDCAD 15/3 Pullback LongOverall up trend. When the pull back reach congestion, will take off. Still need to monitor the CAD news later.
USD/CADIt is very amazing chart 1h frame
Entry point 1.3600
stop loss below 1.39450 (93.4 point)
T1 1.39232 (325 Point)
T2 1.40417 (443 Point)
T3 141600 (558 Point)
Usdcad Usdcad as we can see is on a uptrend we hv 1d 1w on a uptrend and we are expecting a break and a retest on the 4hrs den we buy but this trade is a high probability trade
USD/CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
USD/CAD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.359
Target Level: 1.355
Stop Loss: 1.361
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
sell from pivotgood RR
on Daily chart I saw down trend
so I was looking for sell
price now is retsting the pivot
that was resistance, broke down and now may be support for continuing the down trend
USD/CAD Institutional Buy Zone – Thief Trading Alert!🔥 USD/CAD "LOONIE BANK HEIST" 🔥 – THIEF TRADING STYLE (BULLISH SNIPER PLAN)
💸 ATTENTION: Market Robbers & Profit Pirates!
"Steal Like a Pro – Escape Before the Cops Arrive!"
🎯 MASTER TRADE PLAN (Based on Thief Trading Tactics):
Entry Zone (Pullback Heist):
📌 Pullback-1: Market Maker Trap Zone (1.35400+) – Wait for retest!
📌 Pullback-2: Institutional Buy Zone (1.33500+) – Confirm bullish momentum!
"Patience = Perfect Heist Timing. Don’t rush—ambush the trend!"
🎯 Profit Target: 1.38100 (or escape earlier if momentum fades).
🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): Nearest 4H Swing Low (wick/close) – Adjust based on risk & lot size!
🚨 SCALPERS’ WARNING:
"Only snipe LONG! Big pockets? Strike now. Small stack? Join swing robbers & trail your SL!"
📉 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bullish Triggers):
Technical + Fundamental alignment (COT, Macro, Sentiment).
Overbought but institutional demand holding strong.
"Bears are trapped—time to rob their stops!"
⚠️ CRITICAL ALERT:
News = Volatility = Police Ambush!
Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
Trailing SL = Your Getaway Car! Lock profits before reversals.
💥 BOOST THIS HEIST!
"Hit 👍, 🔔 Follow, and 🚀 Boost to fuel our next robbery! Let’s drain the banks together!"
🔮 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… Stay tuned, partner! 🎭💰
Possibility of uptrend The triangle pattern is expected to complete at the current support level according to the indicated directions. Then, a trend change is likely to occur and the start of an uptrend is likely. A break of the red support level will likely indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
01.07.02025 #USDCADBUY 1.35950 | STOP 1.35300 | TAKE 1.36850 | Upward price movement from the levels of the local support range.
USDCAD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USDCAD is below:
The market is trading on 1.3649 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.3697
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3624
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCADHere’s a detailed breakdown. Of course, those fully engaged in trading will understand this right away. Basically, when the price reaches the D point zone (ABCD pattern), we start looking for a short setup. Most likely, the price will move toward the projected target zone — and that’s what we’re aiming for.
For those who are impatient, there are also two potential entry zones for long trades. As you can see, there’s a white trendline on the chart. The first buy setup is from the area after a retest of this trendline. The second long opportunity appears if the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci zone — in that case, you can buy again on the retest, aiming for the TP zone.
USDCAD OVERVIEW I am bearish on USDCAD.I will be looking more for sells.CAD is also largely influenced by Oil but remember their have been also bearish outlook on the dollar.Dollar weakness is a big factor
