USD/CAD: Failed Break Leaves Bears in ControlWhether it’s Monday’s bearish pin candle, the rejection at the 50-day moving average, or what increasingly looks like an evening star pattern forming, directional risks for USD/CAD look to be skewing lower following the false break of 1.3750.
Those looking to position for renewed weakness could initiate shorts beneath 1.3750, with a stop above the level to guard against a reversal. 1.3650 and 1.3550 both stand as prospective targets, depending on the risk-reward profile you're seeking.
While momentum indicators are off their lows, with RSI (14) rolling over beneath 50 and MACD still in negative territory, the overall picture continues to favour downside over upside.
For those considering the setup, be aware Canadian inflation data will be released later Tuesday, with the key core rate (the average of the median and trimmed mean reads) expected to ease marginally to an annual clip of 3%. While offshore factors remain the dominant driver of USD/CAD moves, a stronger-than-expected result would likely benefit the trade.
Good luck!
DS
CADUSD trade ideas
USDCAD is Nearing The Daily TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.38500 zone, USDCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.38500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement an could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3689
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3647
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3815
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
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Looking to short USDCADPrice mitigates a 4h fvg and Monday opening price(New York time) has taken out sell side liquidity and gave a quick market structure shift to the down side confirming the set up. Looking to short at the median of a 5m fvg that resulted in the MSS. Target is a 1h inverted fvg which aligns with the 50% mark of the Fibonacci range.
Bullish rise?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3697
1st Support: 1.3561
1st Resistance: 1.3843
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Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows
🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding.
Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs).
🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side.
🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support.
Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift.
🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD.
📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD.
💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action
Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone.
Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540).
Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed.
Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum.
📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640.
📈 3. Retail Sentiment
77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646.
Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790.
📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed.
📊 4. Seasonality
June is historically weak for USD/CAD:
5Y Avg: -0.0118
2Y Avg: -0.0081
The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month.
📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/CAD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3703
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3647
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3815
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USD_CAD POTENTIAL LONG|
✅USD_CAD went down to retest
A horizontal support of 1.3560
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that a move up
From the level is to be expected
Towards the target above at 1.3652
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USD/CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
USD/CAD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.359
Target Level: 1.355
Stop Loss: 1.361
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USD/CAD Institutional Buy Zone – Thief Trading Alert!🔥 USD/CAD "LOONIE BANK HEIST" 🔥 – THIEF TRADING STYLE (BULLISH SNIPER PLAN)
💸 ATTENTION: Market Robbers & Profit Pirates!
"Steal Like a Pro – Escape Before the Cops Arrive!"
🎯 MASTER TRADE PLAN (Based on Thief Trading Tactics):
Entry Zone (Pullback Heist):
📌 Pullback-1: Market Maker Trap Zone (1.35400+) – Wait for retest!
📌 Pullback-2: Institutional Buy Zone (1.33500+) – Confirm bullish momentum!
"Patience = Perfect Heist Timing. Don’t rush—ambush the trend!"
🎯 Profit Target: 1.38100 (or escape earlier if momentum fades).
🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): Nearest 4H Swing Low (wick/close) – Adjust based on risk & lot size!
🚨 SCALPERS’ WARNING:
"Only snipe LONG! Big pockets? Strike now. Small stack? Join swing robbers & trail your SL!"
📉 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bullish Triggers):
Technical + Fundamental alignment (COT, Macro, Sentiment).
Overbought but institutional demand holding strong.
"Bears are trapped—time to rob their stops!"
⚠️ CRITICAL ALERT:
News = Volatility = Police Ambush!
Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
Trailing SL = Your Getaway Car! Lock profits before reversals.
💥 BOOST THIS HEIST!
"Hit 👍, 🔔 Follow, and 🚀 Boost to fuel our next robbery! Let’s drain the banks together!"
🔮 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… Stay tuned, partner! 🎭💰
Possibility of uptrend The triangle pattern is expected to complete at the current support level according to the indicated directions. Then, a trend change is likely to occur and the start of an uptrend is likely. A break of the red support level will likely indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
USDCAD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USDCAD is below:
The market is trading on 1.3649 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.3697
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3624
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCADHere’s a detailed breakdown. Of course, those fully engaged in trading will understand this right away. Basically, when the price reaches the D point zone (ABCD pattern), we start looking for a short setup. Most likely, the price will move toward the projected target zone — and that’s what we’re aiming for.
For those who are impatient, there are also two potential entry zones for long trades. As you can see, there’s a white trendline on the chart. The first buy setup is from the area after a retest of this trendline. The second long opportunity appears if the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci zone — in that case, you can buy again on the retest, aiming for the TP zone.