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USDCAD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25Given the daily down-trend and your clear break below the 1.3729 pivot, the path of least resistance is down toward 1.3420 rather than back up to 1.3729: Trend USD/CAD has been in a multi-month down-trend from the 1.4800 highs, carving lower highs and lower lows. Broken support → resistance That 1.3729 level failed as support in late May and should now act as resistance on any rally. Momentum Recent daily closes are rolling over into new lows, with no bullish divergence to suggest a reversal yet. Slide to 1.3420 ~70% Down-trend continuation into the next demand zone Rally back to 1.3729 ~30% Requires reclaiming 1.3600–1.3650 and bullish follow-through
Short
by Gamblers-Fallacy
Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials NarrowUSDCAD – Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials Narrow 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to gain ground this week, supported by two key drivers: Crude oil prices surged due to Middle East tensions and renewed demand optimism — boosting CAD as a commodity-linked currency. US-Canada yield spreads narrowed, following revised expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may keep rates higher for longer, while the Fed is seen pausing. Short-term event risks to watch: 🇨🇦 Canadian Manufacturing Sales data today at 13:30 GMT 🇨🇦 G7 Summit in Alberta from June 15–17, which may influence oil and energy policy sentiment Our latest fair value estimate for USDCAD has shifted lower to 1.3613, reflecting tighter rate spreads and stronger oil. Technical structure remains tilted to the downside. 📉 Technical Outlook – M30 Chart 🔹 Structure: Price remains in a short-term downtrend, with a well-defined descending trendline capping upside attempts. The pair recently tested the EMA 89–200 zone and failed, suggesting continued bearish pressure. 🔹 Key Zones: Dynamic Resistance: 1.3638 – 1.3660 (trendline + EMA cluster) Support Area: 1.3592 → 1.3578 A break below 1.3578 could expose deeper downside toward 1.3420 (September lows) 🔹 Momentum Indicators: RSI has bounced from oversold (30) but remains in bearish territory. The current rebound looks corrective — potentially a dead cat bounce. 🧠 Market Sentiment Flows favour commodity-backed currencies like CAD, especially with energy prices rising. USD has weakened slightly as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week. Sentiment is leaning toward "sell the rallies" on USDCAD for now. 🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios 🔻 SELL SCENARIO – If price retests and rejects 1.3638 – 1.3660 Entry: 1.3640 – 1.3655 Stop-Loss: 1.3685 Targets: 1.3592 → 1.3578 → 1.3510 🔺 BUY SCENARIO – If strong bullish reaction occurs at 1.3592 – 1.3578 Entry: 1.3580 Stop-Loss: 1.3545 Targets: 1.3620 → 1.3640 ⚠️ Focus on trend continuation. Only consider buys if clear rejection or bullish confirmation appears at support. ✅ Conclusion The current trend in USDCAD favours sellers, with fundamental momentum supporting CAD via higher oil and narrowing yield differentials. Key resistance at 1.3638–1.3660 remains the pivot zone to monitor. With Canadian data and the G7 Summit ahead, volatility could increase.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
USDCAD Long – Wyckoff Spring PlaybookCause > Effect. Behavior > Breakouts. We just printed a classic Spring + Test setup. Here’s how the puzzle came together: 🔍 Accumulation Context: Market ranged quietly for hours – demand building below the surface. Spike down into previous demand zone with climax volume – the shakeout. Quick reclaim of the zone with bullish absorption signals the Spring. 📈 Execution Plan: Entry just above the spring low at 1.3617 Stop below spring at 1.3612 Targeting inefficiencies at 1.3645 and 1.3651 (prior supply pockets) 🎯 Why I Like This Setup: Structure: Matches Wyckoff Spring logic (Phase C → D transition) Volume: Shakeout came with high effort, followed by efficient reclaim Timing: Happens in a zone where other traders might still be stuck short > “In trading, the ones who recognize intent get in before confirmation.” This trade idea isn’t about being right — it’s about understanding behavior. I’m not reacting to candles. I’m tracking the motive behind them.
Long
by theeOperator90
USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D13 Y25USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D13 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅1H order block ✅HTF 50 EMA ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be identified ✅15’ order block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 12 June 2025- USDCAD broke key support level 1.3630 - Likely to fall to support level 1.3500 USDCAD currency pair recently broke the key support level 1.3630, which previously formed the daily Hammer reversal pattern at the start of June. The breakout of the support level 1.3630 should accelerate the active impulse wave C of the ABC correction (2) from January. USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3500 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
Short
by FxProGlobal
USDCAD – Sell Into Resistance Amid Bearish ContinuationSell Limit Entry: 1.3700 Target: 1.3600 Stop Loss: 1.3750 Duration: Intraday Expires: 13/06/2025 06:00 Technical Overview The broader trend remains bearish, and current price action does not indicate a reversal of the recent downtrend. A correction toward resistance at 1.3700 offers a low-risk short entry. A move below 1.3625 would confirm renewed bearish momentum, aligning with the measured move target of 1.3575. The short-term RSI has turned negative, reinforcing downside pressure. Traders should remain aware of upcoming U.S. data, with the PPI release at 13:30 UTC potentially triggering short-term volatility. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 1.3675 / 1.3700 / 1.3725 Support: 1.3625 / 1.3600 / 1.3575 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by Signal_Centre1
USDCAD INTRADAY downtrend resistance at 1.3750The USDCAD currency pair continues to exhibit a bearish sentiment, aligned with the broader downtrend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback is underway, testing previous resistance zones. Key Resistance Level: 1.3750 — This marks a significant intraday consolidation area. A rejection at this level would reinforce bearish momentum. Support Targets: If price fails to break above 1.3750 and turns lower, potential downside targets include: 1.3640 (near-term support) 1.3580 (intermediate support) 1.3530 (longer-term support) On the bullish side, a confirmed breakout and daily close above 1.3750 would invalidate the current bearish bias. In that case, upside resistance levels to watch are: 1.3800 (psychological level) 1.3860 (major resistance zone) Conclusion: USDCAD remains technically bearish unless it achieves a sustained break above 1.3750. Traders should watch for a rejection at this key level to confirm further downside potential. A breakout above would shift the outlook to bullish, targeting higher resistance zones. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USD/CAD – 1H Chart: Trend: Bullish Reversal in PlayUSD/CAD – 1H Chart Trend: Bullish Reversal in Play Technical Confluence: 🔹 Harmonic Pattern: AB=CD 🔹 Chart Formation: Falling Wedge 🔹 Momentum Signal: Bullish Divergence Spotted 🚀 A strong confluence of bullish indicators is setting up a potential reversal on USD/CAD. The AB=CD harmonic pattern aligns with a classic falling wedge breakout, supported by visible bullish divergence on the momentum indicators — all pointing to upside potential. 📌 Trade Setup: 🔹 Entry (Buy Stop): 1.37076 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 1.36309 🔹 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.37843 🔹 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.38610 🔹 Lot Size: 0.17 🔹 Risk/Reward: 1:1 and 1:2 🔹 Risk: $200 💸 🔹 Reward: Up to $300 💰 📊 This setup offers a clean entry with defined structure, favoring smart risk management. If price confirms the wedge breakout, we could see a sharp move to TP1 and possibly TP2. ⚠️ Always monitor price action around key levels and adjust stop-loss accordingly. #USDCAD #ForexSetup #BullishReversal #FallingWedge #HarmonicPattern #ABCDPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #1HChart #ForexTrading #TradeSetup #PriceAction #RiskReward #DivergenceSignal #SmartTrading
by asimafridi
USDCAD Short Opportunity Description : USDCAD is setting up for a potential short — I’m watching closely for an upthrust into the highlighted zone to initiate the position. Here’s my current read: 🔍 Technical Breakdown: 1. Trendline Break Previous bullish trendline broken with conviction. Market structure now vulnerable to bearish continuation. 2. Volume Spike with Selling Pressure Notable increase in volume on bearish candles — suggests smart money exiting or early sellers stepping in. 3. Anticipating an Upthrust Watching for price to sweep the highs around 1.3695–1.3700, fail to sustain, and drop back inside range. This would provide a low-risk entry with tight stops above the highs and 5r+ down to 1.3652, possibly even lower. 📌 Trade Plan: Entry Zone: 1.3695–1.3700 (after upthrust confirmation) Stop: Above 1.3710 TP1: 1.3652 (structure low) TP2: 1.3600 (extended target if momentum builds) --- 🧠 Why This Setup? This aligns with key principles I trade: Trendline breaks often lead to retests followed by continuation. Rising volume on the break is confirmation, not noise. A failed breakout (upthrust) into previous supply zones is often the "last push" before price collapses. Let me know if you're seeing something different. This is how I’m planning to attack the chart today.
Short
by theeOperator90
USD/CAD 4-Hour Technical & Fundamental AnalysisUSD/CAD 4-Hour Technical & Fundamental Analysis USD/CAD has dropped below a key support level, pressured by both technical and fundamental bearish drivers as the U.S. dollar weakens and the Canadian dollar gains strength. The 4-hour chart structure shows a potential distribution phase followed by a liquidity grab, signaling smart money manipulation before a possible continuation to the downside. Price broke down below the minor support at 1.36800, triggering short entries. However, a sharp reversal followed, hunting stop-losses and liquidating early sellers. This false breakout indicates a manipulation phase, where price seeks liquidity before choosing direction. If the price closes below 1.36700 with a solid 4H candle body, it confirms bearish intent and opens the door for a continuation down to the next key support, aligning with broader USD weakness and CAD strength. 📊 Trade Setup 📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 1.36700 (Sell on 4H candle close below) 🛡 Stop-Loss: 1.37310 (Above liquidity zone) 🎯 Take Profit: 1.34750 (Next minor support / 1:3 RR) This setup capitalizes on institutional distribution, manipulation, and liquidity hunting behavior, providing a clear bearish roadmap. Fundamental Outlook: U.S. Dollar Weakness Non-Farm Employment Change (June 6): Actual: 139K vs Forecast: 126K | Previous: 147K Slowing momentum in job growth hints at labor market softening, increasing the probability of a Fed rate pause. Trade & Fiscal Pressure: Reuters reports that 90% of FX strategists expect continued USD decline due to: Expanding federal deficit Unpredictable trade policy Over $3.3 trillion added to national debt from tax cuts and stimulus packages Canadian Dollar Strength The CAD surged to an 8-month high (1.3665 on June 5), supported by: Rebound in oil prices (Canada’s top export) Optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade negotiations A U.S. trade court blocking proposed tariffs, boosting risk sentiment 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
USDCAD weekly overviewHello Traders, War in Persian Gulf could change the direction of this analysis. Any conflict in the Middle ease could make out two white zones be red and suitable for shot trades. in normal situation, only 1.37732 is prepared for long trades. *********************************************************** The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones. Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray. You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC. SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings. TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels. ******************************************************************* Role of different zones: GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them. RED: Just Short trades allowed on them. BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them. WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
by AliSignals