USDCAD WILL DELIVER BY FIREFX:USDCAD WeeklyTF and MontlyTF Buy analysis, Its surely going to be hit by the grace of God the Almighty.
CADUSD trade ideas
USDCAD Buy- Go for short term buy then manage your trade
- potentially go higher or significant reversing to the upside
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if your strategy allow
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USD CAD at weekly support likely to re bound from here Price is consolidating in a tight range after prior upward move → suggesting bullish accumulation. If price breaks above 1.3770, a rally toward 1.3820 is likely. However, a breakdown below 1.3680 could attract sellers toward 1.3620.
Usdcad Sellprice is bearish still on the 4hr tf and is in a 4hr supply zone. there are supplies across the lower tfs within the 4hr zone. there is a particular one on the 15m tf that is strong. looking to sell once price trades below last ll.
USDCAD SHORT TERM BULLISH CORRECTIONGenerally, the US Dollar is losing ground against major currencies. The decline is stemming from pending tariffs equilibrium and looming Fed rate cuts. On the USDCAD daily chart, the US Dollar is poised to decline further to the unmitigated zone. Once this demand zone is contacted we are likely to clearer price action direction on whether to buy or sell further. Our bias is a short term bullish market correction outlook once the unmitigated zone is contacted.
Usdcad This is another clean setup from the last signal we were expecting price to go down to de last support but for some reason I left early and we have price breaks the previous support and is now acting like a resistance so we are expecting price to retrace on that zone de we sell more
USD/CAD at a Turning PointTechnical Analysis: Signs of a Bottoming Out
USD/CAD’s technical picture is beginning to shift from bearish to cautiously bullish. Let’s start with what the daily chart is telling us. Over April, the pair’s decline started to stall around the 1.3780 – 1.3810 zone, which corresponds to a second support level (S2) on pivot point charts. In fact, 1.3780 has been identified by analysts as a “critical support”areaeconomies.com, and the market has thus far respected this floor. For roughly two weeks, prices have been consolidating in a tight range just above this support, roughly between 1.378 and 1.388. This kind of sideways basing after a drop indicates that selling pressure is no longer as aggressive – the CAD hasn’t been able to push the USD convincingly below the support line around 1.38.
Several momentum indicators are aligning to suggest that the worst of the downtrend may be over:
MACD Crossover: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a favorite tool for gauging trend changes, is on the verge of a bullish crossover (i.e. the MACD line is crossing above the signal line). As of late April, daily MACD had already flipped to a “Buy” readingfortrade.com. A bullish crossover after a prolonged down-move implies the downward momentum is fading and buyers are starting to gain the upper hand. We’re also seeing the MACD histogram (which visualizes the difference between the MACD and its signal) tick up from deeply negative values toward the zero line, reinforcing the idea of a momentum reversal.
RSI Rising from Oversold: The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and change of price movements, dipped into oversold territory during the April sell-off. (Typically, an RSI reading below 30 is considered oversold and a possible sign of an overextended move.) In late April, USD/CAD’s daily RSI was hovering in the low 30sfxstreet.com. Now, in early May, the RSI has climbed upward, moving through the 40s and toward the mid-50s. This upward turn suggests that the prior bearish momentum is abating – in other words, sellers are running out of steam and buyers are gradually stepping in. Notably, the RSI made higher lows even as price made a lower low around 1.378, a classic bullish divergence hinting that the downtrend was losing strength.
Support and Price Action: Price action itself underscores the potential for a bottom. The 1.3800 area (pivot S2)has been tested multiple times and remains intactfxstreet.com. Each dip into the high-1.37s was met with buying interest, as evidenced by candles with lower wicks and quick recoveries back above 1.38. This demand zonearound 1.378–1.381 has effectively absorbed selling pressure. One trader on TradingView noted that “USD/CAD is bouncing off a major daily support level around 1.38100 after a strong bearish move. Price action shows early signs of bullish interest, with the potential for a correction toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average.”tradingview.com. The fact that the pair is holding this support is crucial – it provides a clear line in the sand. As long as 1.3780 holds, the bullish thesis remains alive. A break below that would be a warning sign, but so far the floor has held firm.
Ichimoku Cloud and A Shift in Trend: The daily Ichimoku cloud on the chart (the colored cloud area representing support/resistance and trend) is still positioned above current prices – a legacy of the prior downtrend. However, the pair’s consolidation means it is no longer plunging deeper below the cloud; instead, it’s inching closer to the cloud’s base. Often, when a trend is about to reverse, we see price start testing the underside of the Ichimoku cloud or the baseline (Kijun-sen). While USD/CAD hasn’t broken out above the cloud yet, it’s noteworthy that the cloud ahead is thinning and flattening. A thinner cloud can be easier to break, and a flat Kijun line (baseline) around the 1.40–1.41 area could act like a magnet for price if bullish momentum kicks in. In short, the Ichimoku system is saying the trend is still technically bearish, but conditions are improving for a potential bullish breakif buyers can push the price into the cloud.
Another technical element worth mentioning is the moving averages. During the decline, USD/CAD stayed below short-term moving averages, which acted as resistance. Now we see price testing those moving averages from below. For instance, the 10-day exponential MA and 20-day MA lurk around 1.3870–1.3900 – right where the current consolidation top is. A break above 1.39 would not only clear this minor consolidation range but also put the price back above those moving averages, a bullish sign. Beyond there, the 50-day SMA (around the mid-1.41s) could be an initial target for a rebound. All in all, the technical setup is showing early glimmers of a reversal: a solid support base, momentum indicators flipping positive, and weakening bearish forces. This lays a technical foundation for the argument to go long USD/CAD.
Why This Could Be an Opportunity to Go Long USD/CAD
Bringing together the technical signals and the macro context, the case for a USD/CAD rebound is getting stronger. Here’s a quick recap of why early May 2025 may be an attractive entry point for USD/CAD longs (buying USD against CAD):
Rock-Solid Support: The pair has a concrete floor around 1.3780–1.3800 that has held firmly through multiple tests. This pivot support (S2) level has proven its strengthfxstreet.com, indicating significant buying interest at those lows. A strong support means downside risk can be well-defined (for example, one can place a stop-loss just below it in a trade scenario), and it often serves as a launchpad for rebounds when the broader trend shifts.
Momentum Shift to Bullish: Key momentum indicators are flipping in favor of USD momentum. The MACD on the daily chart has turned upward, signaling waning bearish momentum and a possible bullish crossover – a classic early reversal sign. Likewise, the RSI has risen out of oversold territoryfxstreet.com, showing that the prior selling momentum is exhausted. In fact, a short-term trading model as of Apr 29 showed multiple daily indicators (MACD, RSI, Stochastics) all giving “Buy” signals for USD/CADfortrade.com. When formerly pessimistic indicators start signaling “buy” in unison, it’s often a telltale sign of a trend ready to change direction.
Bullish Price Action Clues: Price is speaking volumes: higher lows are forming on intraday charts and the pair is making attempts to push higher within the recent range. We’ve observed bullish candlestick patterns like small daily dojis and hammers near the lows, reflecting indecision and failed attempts by sellers to break lower. This kind of consolidation after a drop often indicates that the next significant move could be up, especially given the momentum backdrop. Additionally, if USD/CAD breaks above the 1.3900 resistance (which is the upper bound of the consolidation and near the 10-day/20-day moving averagesfxstreet.com), it would mark the first higher-high in weeks – essentially confirming the short-term trend reversal.
USD Fundamentals Support a Rise: The U.S. dollar’s broader fundamentals are relatively robust. The Fed’s higher-for-longer stance (with only modest rate cuts expected later) keeps USD interest rates attractiveam.jpmorgan.com, and the U.S. economy has been outperforming many peers in growth, which has underpinned the USD’s strengtham.jpmorgan.com. This means any USD weakness narrative might have been overdone – if traders realize the Fed won’t ease as much as hoped, USD could get a second wind. A stable or rising USD on the global stage directly benefits a long USD/CAD position.
Canadian Headwinds (Oil & Risk): The Canadian dollar, in contrast, faces a few headwinds. Commodity support is lacking – with oil prices recently in the doldrums at 4-year lows around $58investingnews.com, a key pillar of CAD strength has crumbled. Unless oil stages a dramatic comeback (which is not expected immediately, given only a moderate rebound to ~$68–$74 forecasted by the EIAinvestingnews.com), the CAD could struggle to maintain its recent strength. On top of that, if global risk appetite wavers, traders could rotate out of risk-sensitive currencies like CAD into safer havens. In short, the CAD may have enjoyed a good run, but the tables appear set to turn in favor of the USD.
Attractive Risk/Reward Setup: From a trading perspective, going long USD/CAD near current levels offers a compelling risk-to-reward scenario. The support at ~1.3780 provides a logical and tight risk cutoff – if the pair falls decisively below that, one can admit the bullish thesis was premature and exit. On the upside, even a retracement to mid-range resistance levels like 1.4000–1.4100 (around the 50-day MA or pivot resistance) would yield a solid gain relative to the risk. The trader who shared the long idea on USD/CAD set a target around 1.4140, just shy of major resistance, highlighting the potential for a move of several hundred pips off the lows if the reversal takes holdtradingview.com. The combination of well-defined support, improving indicators, and room overhead for a bounce means the odds are tilted that a long position could be rewarded.
Of course, no trade or investment is guaranteed – and one must always stay vigilant. If USD/CAD were to close below ~1.3780 support, it would call into question the bullish setup and could open the door to further downside (perhaps another leg down to the mid-1.37 or even low 1.36 area in a bearish scenario). But as things stand, the evidence leans bullish, and the reward potential outweighs the remaining downside risk, in our view.
SELL ON THE USD/CAD?The price has broken the upward trendline, going downwards, after it ranged for a while near the upward trendline which seems to be a previous resistance zone. I believe it might continue to go down as there are no much buyers since the market hit the peak and went down. I think it might go down to 1.34120 i dont know.
USDCAD ahead of BoC rate decision capped at 1.3840Today’s key focus is on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Markets will react to signs of inflation, growth, or central bank policy shifts.
Q1 Labor Productivity: Tracks efficiency of Canadian workers—important for inflation outlook.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates at 2.75% due to sticky inflation, even as the economy slows.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.3840
Resistance Level 2: 1.3940
Resistance Level 3: 1.4020
Support Level 1: 1.3660
Support Level 2: 1.3580
Support Level 3: 1.3500
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The Day AheadKey Economic Events – Wednesday, June 4, 2025
🇺🇸 U.S.
ADP Jobs Report (May): A preview of private job growth; markets watch this ahead of Friday's official jobs report.
ISM Services PMI (May): Measures health of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 = growth.
Fed Speakers: Bostic and Cook will speak—markets listen for interest rate hints.
Beige Book: Fed’s regional economic summary, useful for understanding business trends.
🇬🇧 UK
Official Reserves (May): Change in the UK’s foreign reserves—can hint at FX market activity or interventions.
🇮🇹 Italy
Services PMI (May): Shows whether the Italian services sector is expanding or shrinking.
🇨🇦 Canada
Q1 Labor Productivity: Tracks efficiency of Canadian workers—important for inflation outlook.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates at 2.75% due to sticky inflation, even as the economy slows.
Summary:
Today’s key focus is on U.S. jobs and services data, the Fed’s tone, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Markets will react to signs of inflation, growth, or central bank policy shifts.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
usdcad buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
USDCAD BUY TRADEAm seeing a retest of key support level
Entry; 1.37000
Stoploss:1.36900
Take profit: 1.3800
Comment your opinion please.
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USDCAD: Growth & Bullish Continuation
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the USDCAD pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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USDCAD – Sell the Reversal at Key ResistanceTrade Idea
Type: Sell Limit
Entry: 1.3750
Target: 1.3650
Stop Loss: 1.3800
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2:1
Duration: Intraday
Expires: 04/06/2025 06:00
Technical Overview
The recent correction higher is likely complete, with price testing strong resistance near 1.3750.
A move through 1.3700 will confirm renewed bearish momentum.
This area aligns with multiple technical resistance levels, making it a strategic zone to initiate shorts.
The measured move target is 1.3625, but this setup looks to capture the move to 1.3650 for a higher probability win.
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15 minute bullish Wolfewave in playKeep an eye on the shorter timeframe patterns that could invalidate the longer term patterns.
USD/CAD Market ObservationThe USD/CAD exchange rate extended its decline, hitting an intraday low of 1.3673 and a new year-to-date low. The US Dollar Index weakened across the board under multiple bearish factors, while the Canadian Dollar remained strong supported by robust economic data. USD/CAD has fully broken below a key support zone, accelerating its downward trend after breaching the 1.3800 level. Current market sentiment is clearly bearish on the US Dollar. Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and the strengthening expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts have left the US Dollar lacking upward momentum. Meanwhile, strong Canadian economic data and expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain a hawkish stance have provided solid support for the Canadian Dollar. Traders generally believe that with the obvious divergence in fundamentals, USD/CAD still has further downside potential.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
sell@1.3750-1.3800
TP:1.3550-1.3600
BEARISH UCADUCAD has gone through its retracement phase and Is currently testing an area of Major Support. If we can get a close below and retest of support, we're looking for price to drop to our extension level! #BreakAndRetest #SupportAndResistance
check the trendConsidering the price behavior in the current support zone, possible scenarios have been identified. If the price breaks through the support zone, the downward trend will continue to the next support levels.
USD/CAD H1 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementUSD/CAD is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.3756 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.3807 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 1.3689 which is a swing-low support.
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Cautious Bulls Meet Trendline Test: USD/CAD Eyes FOMC CatalystCMCMARKETS:USDCAD OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD extended its recovery for the third day, trading near 1.3833 on modest USD strength following upbeat U.S. data. However, fiscal worries and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025 may limit upside momentum. Traders are cautious ahead of the FOMC Minutes and U.S. PCE/GDP data, while firmer Canadian inflation and oil prices could support the CAD.
Technically, the pair remains within a broad downward channel and is now approaching key resistance at 1.3856, aligned with the descending trendline. A clear rejection here could spark a bearish continuation toward 1.3711 support. A breakout above 1.3937 would invalidate the bearish channel and suggest trend reversal.
Resistance : 1.3856 , 1.3937
Support : 1.3711 , 1.3809
Falling towards overlap support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3602
1st Support: 1.3420
1st Resistance: 1.3843
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02-06-2025 _ Short Term Bearish Idea _ USDCAD H11- Price is moving in a strong down trend.
2- No Divergence against.
3- After pullback or retracement one can expect a push to the downside.
