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USDCAD Trade Idea (1H Chart Analysis)**USDCAD Trade Idea (1H Chart Analysis)** **Market Structure:** - The price is in a **downtrend** on the 1H chart, with lower highs and lower lows forming. - It is currently testing a **key support level** around **1.4350**. - The **50 EMA (black line) is above the price**, confirming bearish momentum. - The recent candles show **decreasing volume**, indicating possible consolidation before the next move. **Trade Plan** **Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Sell Trade)** 📉 **Entry:** Below **1.4350**, after a strong bearish candle closes. 🎯 **Target 1:** **1.4320** (previous minor support) 🎯 **Target 2:** **1.4280** (stronger support zone) 🛑 **Stop Loss:** **1.4375** (above recent lower high) 📊 **Risk-to-Reward Ratio:** 1:2 or better **Confirmation:** If price breaks 1.4350 with strong volume, it signals continuation of the downtrend. **Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Buy Trade)** 📈 **Entry:** If price **bounces from 1.4350** and forms a strong bullish engulfing candle. 🎯 **Target 1:** **1.4395** (previous resistance) 🎯 **Target 2:** **1.4415-1.4420** (major resistance zone) 🛑 **Stop Loss:** **1.4335** (below recent low) 📊 **Risk-to-Reward Ratio:** 1:2 **Confirmation:** A strong rejection from 1.4350 with bullish volume indicates potential reversal. **Final Thoughts** - **Bias:** Bearish unless we see a clear reversal signal at 1.4350. - **Watch for a breakout or bounce at key levels before entering.** - **Always use risk management** – never risk more than 1-2% per trade!
by elitetrader9090
Bullish bounce?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.4299 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 1.4222 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.4416 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD INTRADAY bullish sideways consolidationThe USD/CAD currency pair price action sentiment remains bullish, supported by the prevailing long-term uptrend. Recent intraday movements indicate a bullish breakout above the previous resistance level, which has now established itself as a new support zone. Key Levels and Price Action The primary trading level to watch is 1.4390, representing the previous consolidation range. A corrective pullback to this level, followed by a bullish rebound, could signal continued upward momentum. In this scenario, the pair may aim for upside resistance levels at 1.4487, 1.4530, and 1.4590 over the longer timeframe. However, if the 1.4390 support level fails to hold and there is a confirmed daily close below it, the bullish outlook would be invalidated. This breakdown could lead to a deeper retracement, targeting the 1.4350 support level, followed by 1.4310 and 1.4230. Conclusion The sentiment remains bullish as long as the 1.4390 support level holds, with potential upside targets at 1.4487, 1.4530, and 1.4590. A confirmed breakdown below 1.4390 would shift the outlook to bearish, signaling a potential move toward 1.4350, 1.4310, and 1.4230. Traders should closely monitor daily closing levels around the key support to gauge sentiment shifts and make informed trading decisions. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Bank of Canada Expected to Reduce RatesSeveral desks forecast that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will reduce the overnight rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% (from 3.00%) today at 1:45 pm GMT. Since June (2024), the central bank has lowered rates by 200 bps over six consecutive meetings, bringing the overnight rate closer to the mid-point of the BoC’s neutral range of 3.25% - 2.25%. The swaps market is pricing in a 94% chance that the BoC will opt for another 25 bp cut today. Eleven out of twelve economists polled by the Wall Street Journal also forecast a 25 bp reduction, in line with current market pricing. Additionally, some desks are airing the possibility of a 50 bp decrease. However, I doubt this will be the case; cutting the overnight rate to such an extent at this juncture might indicate serious concerns in the Canadian economy, and I do not think the BoC will want to alarm the markets. BoC Rate Cut; US Tariffs on the Front Line Let’s be frank, the BoC has a challenging task ahead. At a time when the Canadian economy shows signs of persistent inflation – the central bank’s preferred measures of inflation have been hovering around the upper boundary of its 1%-3% inflation target band – and reasonably robust GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product), running at an annualised rate of 2.6% in Q4 24, the central bank will likely cut rates again today. You may also recall that before Friday’s jobs numbers, rate pricing was roughly 50/50 for most of February (and early March) regarding whether the BoC would hold or cut. As mentioned above, money markets are now nearly fully pricing in another 25 bp cut. According to Statistics Canada, job growth was minimal in February, adding a mere 1,100 jobs; this was significantly lower than economists’ forecasts and followed three consecutive months of strong hiring. Despite this, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6%, defying analysts’ estimates of a 6.7% increase. Unquestionably, the BoC’s primary focus is on US tariffs, with some economists cautioning that a recession could be around the corner in the event of a prolonged trade war. The most recent technical recession in Canada, brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, was seen in 2020. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that prolonged and widespread US tariffs could significantly hinder the Canadian economy’s recovery. This week's latest developments saw US President Donald Trump dial back on his 50% tariff threats on Canadian aluminium and steel, retreating to his originally planned 25% tariffs; Trump also recently downplayed the possibility of a US recession. What Does this Mean for the Canadian Dollar? Versus the US dollar (USD), the Canadian dollar (CAD) remains on the ropes, with the USD/CAD currency pair refreshing multi-decade highs of C$1.4793 in February. Technically, following a test of monthly resistance-turned-support at C$1.4193 last month, buyers and sellers are now contained between said support and overhead monthly resistance at C$1.4533. Overall, though, the long-term trend still favours buyers, so a breakout higher would not come as a surprise, potentially paving the way for a run to another layer of monthly resistance at C$1.4925. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the pair rebounded from support at C$1.4262, with scope to run to resistance from C$1.4595. Consequently, while the trend leans in favour of buyers now, monthly and daily resistance between C$1.4533 and C$1.4595 could be problematic. This area will likely need to be absorbed before further upside is seen towards C$1.4793, closely shadowed by monthly resistance at C$1.4925. Should the BoC cut the overnight rate by 25 bps, maintain cautious forward guidance, and not pre-commit to additional policy easing, I see limited volatility drawn from this risk event. However, if the central bank held the rate at 3.00% and underscored a strong economy, this could send the CAD higher (USD/CAD lower). If the BoC opts for a bulkier 50 bps cut and signals further easing, this would likely open the door to a shorting opportunity in the CAD (USD/CAD higher). Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
by FPMarkets
Canadian dollar calm ahead of BoC, US inflationThe Canadian dollar posted gains earlier but couldn't consolidate.  In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4439, up 0.03% on the day. It's decision day at the Bank of Canada, which is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points. This would lower the cash rate to 2.75%, its lowest level since July 2022.  The BoC has been aggressive and has lowered rates at five straight meetings, chopping 200 basis points during that time. The economy remains weak despite the sharp drop in interest rates and the central bank plans to continue lowering rates in order to boost economic growth.  The BoC finds itself in a difficult position as far as rate policy.   The labor market is showing weakness, with almost no job growth in February, while at the same time inflation remains sticky, above the BoC's 2% target.  Throw into the mix the Trump administration's tariffs on Canada, and the situation has become fluid.  The specter of a long trade war between Canada and the US would be disastrous for Canada and has complicated matters for the BoC. In the US, inflation has been contained but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.  Headline CPI for February is expected to ease to 0.3% m/m, down from 0.5% in January, and down to 2.9% y/y from 3.0%.  The core rate is projected to drop to 0.3% m/m from 0.4% and to 3.2% from 3.3%. If the CPI estimates prove to be on target, it would  point to little movement in inflation and investors may feel relieved that Trump's tariffs policies have not yet raised inflation.  The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at next week's meeting but it's unclear what happens after that, with the chances of a May cut at around 50/50. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4445.  Above, there is resistance at 1.4511 1.4370 and 1.4304 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDCAD could be about to deliver a 330 pips moveUSDCAD is forming an ascending triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout if it surpasses 1.4546, with an upside target of around 322 pips. Economic factors include U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, a Canadian boycott of U.S. products, and slowing economic data in both countries, which could pressure the CAD as an export-driven currency. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
by ThinkMarkets
USD/CAD Trend in US Session Today🔔🔔🔔 USD/CAD news: 👉DXY is currently at 103.4, its lowest since November 5, 2024. A break of this level could see DXY fall further. The pair has been losing ground as the US dollar struggles amid concerns that tariff uncertainty could push the US economy into recession. 👉The RSI (1H) is currently entering extreme overbought territory and shows no signs of stopping. 👉The US 10-year bond yield is also down 0.21%, further weighing on the US dollar. 👉On the other hand, CIBC analysts expect the Canadian central bank to cut 25 bps on Wednesday, lowering its benchmark rate to 2.75%, with more cuts to follow this year if trade uncertainty persists. The rising bets of further BoC rate reductions could undermine the CAD and help limit the pair’s losses. Personal opinion: 👉DXY's RSI (1H) enters the overbought zone, so watch this area closely. Moreover, 103.3 is a strong support zone, so there may be signs of a reversal in the short term Analysis: 👉Based on important resistance - support levels and Fibonacci combined with trend lines to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/CAD 1.4410 - 1.4400 ❌SL: 1.4370 | ✅TP: 1.4450 - 1.4490 - 1.4550 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
Different Shades of DisciplineIn my decade of trading experience I've come to realize through huge number of trials and errors that discipline in trading is a rather unique and not always universal beast. While there are definitely broad categories of discipline trading like taking high-quality setups, correctly managing risk, taking profits, and so on; There are also many unique underlying reasons and mind-tangled cognitive dissonances that can become the cause of these lapses. What I understood in my experience is that discipline seems to be transferrable from 1 area to another. Addicted to smoking? Perhaps, quitting can be beneficial to one's trading. However, not necessarily as some traders smoke (and can't quit that habit) for a different underlying reason and thus quitting for them might NOT be as beneficial for the former one. The devil seems to be in the details. Why one smokes? Is it a coping mechanism for stress, or is it a little ritual that one employs to consciously recalibrate themselves? The key seems to be in action and number of trials and experiments. Attempting to try the routine of other people might not yield the best results for the expended effort. One person may run for many miles and enjoy that time, for another it will be excruciating agony to do that. The discipline required in that example would obviously be vastly different, and thus the effect that action produces also - different. At the end of the day - the most important thing in trading is consistency, but coupled with PERSONAL unique discipline is something that gives us edge in the markets.
Education
by Lightwork_