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AA trade ideas

AA ShortAction today was relatively strong with a gap up and breakthrough of major resistance points at ~$40 and the 20EMA; however, breakthrough had poor conviction and didn't hold, immediately trending back down below $40. On a lower time frame (5 minutes), multiple retests of the $40 range were rejected, leading to a large topping tail on the daily chart. # Bearish bias for now. Premarket action will dictate direction tomorrow # Likely see a retrace / gap fill back down to the 9EMA, which is a confluence zone with a pivot point at ~$37.50
NYSE:AAShort
by Jakovasaurus
THE WEEK AHEAD: AA, NFLX EARNINGS; USO, GDX, XLB, EEM, IWMWith broad market volatility ramping up over the past week here (see VIX, VXN, RVX), premium sellers can afford to be picky here, since the board is alight from here to Sunday with implied volatility ranks in the 70's for ... well ... a ton of stuff. For earnings, my eye is on AA and NFLX with nearly ideal rank/implied metrics for volatility contraction plays. NFLX (rank 64/implied 61), a perennial earnings-related volatility contraction fave, announces earnings on Tuesday after market close. Due to its size and its having a tendency to move bigly around earnings, I would go defined: the November 16th 285/290/385/390 is paying 1.87 with a buying power effect of 3.13; a ten-wide with the same short strikes, 3.53, with a buying power effect of 6.47. AA, announcing on Wednesday after market close: 93/52. In my mind, small enough to go full on naked: the November 16th, 71% probability of profit 31/40 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 50% max take profit of .86; the at-the-money skinny, quasi short-straddle -- the 35/36, 3.78, with a 25% take profit of .95. Alternatively, it's been somewhat hammered here and is within 5% of 52-week lows which may make it suitable for a bullish assumption play: the 32/39/40 Jade Lizard is paying 1.00 on the nose with no upside risk and a low side break even of 31, a 13% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. On the non-earnings front: the top five funds in terms of implied volatility rank are USO (81/30), GDX (71/32), XLB (68/27),* EEM (66/27),** and IWM (63/26); the top five ranked by 30-day implied: EWZ (58/44), UNG (36/41),*** XOP (52/36), OIH (56/36), and GDXJ (60/34). * -- Possible bullish assumption directional; new 52-week low. ** -- Possible bullish assumption directional candidate: new 52-week low. *** -- Possible bearish assumption directional candidate: new 52-week high.
NYSE:AA
by NaughtyPines
Broken Call Butterfly Option On Weekly AA, ending on 6/22/18Symbol: AA Current: $ 44.47 Lower Wing: Buy Option: 22nd Jun $44.00 Call Price per option: $ 0.93 Contracts: #1 x 100 Total cost: $93 Middle: Write Option: 22nd Jun $44.50 Call Price per option: $ 0.65 Contracts: 2 x 100 Total cost: $130 Upper Wing Buy Option: 22nd Jun $49.00 Call Price per option: $ 0.15 Contracts: #1 x 100 Total cost: $15 Entry cost: $22 (net credit) Maximum risk: $378 at a price of $49 at expiry Maximum return: $72 at a price of $44.50 at expiry Breakevens at expiry: $45.20
NYSE:AALong
by Anbat