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AMD trade ideas

Be careful with AMD !!!In my opinion, the shares of this company are 14.5% overvalued and should reach a price of $137. The reason for the recent decline in AMD shares is due to cautious statements at Morgan Stanley. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell more than 3% on Tuesday following cautious comments from Morgan Stanley, highlighting concerns over the company's AI supply chain strategy. Analysts noted that AMD appears to have reduced its wafer bookings for MI325 at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. Morgan Stanley stated, 'It appears that AMD has reduced some of its CoWoS wafer bookings at TSMC for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. This move indicates AMD's conservative approach to managing potential demand volatility for its AI processors.' However, Morgan Stanley analysts added that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) quickly absorbed the vacated capacity at TSMC, emphasizing Nvidia's aggressive positioning in the AI market. The bank's note also provides insight into broader trends in the semiconductor industry, indicating that other companies are ramping up production. For instance, Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) tripled its CoWoS bookings for 2025 compared to 2024. Meanwhile, Intel's Habana division kept its wafer bookings at TSMC unchanged, indicating stability in its AI-related production. The cautious tone from analysts on AMD follows a period of intense competition in the AI space, with Nvidia strengthening its leadership. The note also mentions that 'WPG's sales in the third quarter grew 25% quarter-over-quarter, compared to previous guidance of only 5.5% quarter-over-quarter growth,' with the bank noting 'increased business from AMD processors and GPUs.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by CobraVanguard
2
AMD Chart-Based Probabilistic TargetsFRACTAL SCALING For a start I'll use the monthly timeframe that captures the broader market cycles and observes the structural trends to understand the scale and distribution of randomness over time. We need a solid foundation before diving into finer timeframes for more detailed analysis. Capturing critical points of a cycle with Fibonacci channels, especially when aligned with the direction of the trend, reveals hidden non-linear dynamics due to the following reasons: Fibonacci ratios reveal fractal structures that align with key reversal points in cycles, reflecting inherent market patterns. Directionality highlights trend asymmetries, showing where price reacts differently in bullish or bearish conditions. Cycles map the rhythm of reversals, exposing non-random patterns in market transitions. Price reacts disproportionately at Fibonacci levels, reflecting non-linear market forces like supply and demand. Hidden symmetry emerges, revealing harmonic relationships within price swings. Integration of time and price uncovers rhythm, where significant moves align with Fibonacci projections. Historical patterns anticipate future reactions, showing the underlying structure of market behavior. Justified Shift This version of the wave metrics aligns the top of the Fibonacci channel with a more recent cycle high, allowing it to better reflect the current price structure. By anchoring the top cycle closer to the present price action, the analysis enhances the accuracy of the underlying frequency dynamics and non-linear relationships. This adjustment also highlights a clearer transition between past and current cycles, capturing how momentum evolves within the channel. The updated metrics likely improve the identification of potential reversal zones or continuation points relative to the new cycle top. Curves Curves are essential in fractal analysis because they reveal the non-linear dynamics and self-similar structures that govern market behavior. Unlike straight lines, curves accurately model the natural rhythm of price movements, capturing how trends accelerate or decelerate over time and oscillate between key levels. By connecting critical price points such as highs, lows, and retracement levels, curves expose the proportional relationships that link fractals, often aligning with natural laws like the Fibonacci sequence. They also define boundaries like "Full Capacity," highlighting where price tends to exhaust momentum and reverse, offering a roadmap for identifying turning points. Furthermore, curves integrate time and price, capturing the dynamic relationship between the two and providing deeper insights into how cycles evolve and repeat. In fractal analysis, they bridge the gap between mathematical models and real market behavior, making them invaluable for interpreting and anticipating price action. Weekly Timeframe AMD’s remarkable growth of 14,018.01% from $1.61 to its all-time high signals an impressive rally, but it also raises the likelihood of growing bearish pressure as the market enters an overheated condition. Such parabolic moves are rarely sustainable, and they often lead to exhaustion, where natural resistance levels, such as the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, come into play. These levels, particularly the "Full Capacity" threshold, often signal overbought conditions, triggering profit-taking by institutional investors and traders. As price approaches these critical thresholds, momentum typically begins to slow, with indicators like RSI or volume divergence potentially signaling weakening bullish sentiment. The natural cyclical behavior of markets, combined with extended valuations, creates a favorable environment for bearish reversals. Additionally, macroeconomic risks, declining earnings growth, or broader fundamental concerns can further amplify selling pressure. If price fails to maintain upward momentum or begins forming bearish reversal patterns such as lower highs or rising wedges, it may confirm that the market is entering a corrective phase. Monitoring technical indicators, such as volume trends and momentum divergences, alongside fundamental triggers, will be essential in assessing whether bearish pressure will dominate in the near term. Repetitive Patterns The repetitive pattern circled in yellow represents a critical cyclical phase in AMD's price movement. Each time this pattern completes, it is immediately followed by an "off-the-range" move that resembles the beginning of a super cycle. This phenomenon suggests that the yellow-circled phase acts as a precursor to a significant shift in the market's dynamics, where price transitions into a larger, more powerful trend. That fractal may indicate consolidation or accumulation, where price oscillates within a confined range before breaking out. This breakout initiates a super cycle, marked by a rapid and sustained directional move beyond the previous range. The repetitive nature of this sequence highlights the fractal behavior of the market, where similar patterns recur at different scales, providing opportunities to anticipate major market movements. Fractal I Fractal II
NASDAQ:AMD
by fract
4
AMD Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulder SetupSummary: AMD has been in a multi week (beginning 11/12) inverse head & shoulders pattern that formed within a broader descending channel. There is very little selling pressure on the current test of inverse H&S neckline (142.9) and trendline resistance so I would expect a small, low volume pullback before we get a breakout above the neckline and full reversal. In addition to this, AMD just broke above the 20d SMA and in previous reversal crossovers this year, they were followed by significant uptrends (see Aug’24 and Sep’24 for reference). Bullish Thesis is valid unless the right shoulder fails to form; my preference would be a small right shoulder forming above 139.7 buy zone. Trade Plan: Day trade or swing calls on a break above 142.9 with expectations of bullish run to 145 & 148. Stop loss would be 20% or failed breakout and loss of 140.9. I will likely be looking for 2-3 week expirations and 145C. Risk vs Reward: +$5 upside, -$2 downside (2.5:1)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by brycat23
AMD Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisIt’s been a while since my last update on AMD. Looking at the wave structure, I believe we are currently in a complex pullback, correcting the bullish move from October 2022 to March 2024. This correction appears to be a double zigzag, and we’re in the process of completing wave A of the second zigzag (labeled 'y'). Analyzing the cycles, we can see that the trough from October 2023 aligns with an 80-week (80W) cycle trough and the trough in August 2024 aligns with a 40-week (40W) cycle. Currently, I’m expecting the first 20-week (20W) cycle of this 40W cycle, which is actually the second 40W cycle in the 80W cycle, to occur around December 18th. This would correspond to wave A of the y leg of the larger wave II in the wave analysis. Following this, I anticipate a rally that should take us higher before the extreme bearish phase begins as we approach the 80W cycle trough, which is expected in early April 2025. There is an alternative (less likely) bullish scenario to keep in mind. If wave B becomes more strongly bullish, I would shift my bias to that scenario. However, until that happens, my preferred view remains as shown in the chart.
NASDAQ:AMD
by bamdadsalarieh
AMD Potential LongChart has been very bearish lately. Not really sure what AMD wants to do, looking at the daily chart it looks like AMD could bounce off the 130 support level and into the 155-160 range. With that being said I think that there could be the possibility that it trades sideways into the 145-150 range. Going to have to wait and see what it gives us in the coming days, next week could be a big tell all. If the price breaks that 130 support range look for a drop into the 122-110 range and possibly the 100 range. P.S first idea so don't crucify me if its wrong. I will update this if I decide to take a position.
NASDAQ:AMD
by Swigs
2