Considering a Boeing short as a hedgeBoeing has had five straight quarters of negative-- and steadily worsening-- free cash flow per share. Current FCF per share over the last 12 months: -$34.15. Book value is also negative at $-31.04 per share. Frankly, you're buying liabilities when you buy this stock.
Boeing's share price has risen despite one disaster after another. The latest is that a bunch of 737 MAX jets have been grounded due to electrical issues. Yet despite the company's catastrophic fundamentals, Boeing's P/S multiple is trading very near its all-time high of 2.48 from 2018. At that time, the company was buying back shares and paying a dividend. It has since suspended both activities.
Government aid to the tune of $60 billion gave Boeing some breathing room, so it ended last year with a $20 billion cash pile. However, it can't keep up this level of cash burn indefinitely. Macroaxis calculates a 38% chance of financial distress for Boeing in the next 12 months.
Boeing has rock-bottom analyst scores, with a 0.2/10 Thompson Reuters Equity Summary Score and 18/100 from S&P Global. Open interest from options traders has been highly bullish due to geopolitical tensions and the return of air travel. But this company is its own worst enemy: poorly managed and living on the dole.
I'd consider a Boeing short as a potential hedging strategy for a Lockheed-Martin long. Despite the market meltup, I think this market is more fragile than it appears. So I've begun looking at hedging strategies. And for me, from a fundamental point of view, Boeing is one of the worst companies I'm aware of and a conviction short.
