$baba coiled consolidation at the lowsbaba might be the setup i'm attracted to the most. showing strength at the decade low. expected this to break the downward trend any time now. looking to the fill the gap up around $84 by eoy.
BABA trade ideas
BABA Winds Have Shifted - Macro EntryAs always, I try not to publish trades without having a big view of multiple factors so this one is based on a long term view over the next 1-2 years.
Macro: I have outlined China's Central Bank (PBoC) liquidity injections (through reverse repo and MLF data) as very seasonal at the bottom pane on the chart. I do NOT believe history or seasonals should dictate future action but it is worth noting the seasonal nature of the PBoC liquidity injections and we are seeing an early rise in total and frequency since June. In fact, a recent print on 8/15 was the biggest spike since the height of 2023. China is also coming out of the rough no tolorence policy during the "pandemic" so some of their stocks are poised for major breakouts. That said, the U.S. M2 money supply is breaking out of a range with global liquidity on the rise heading into central bank easing around the world. No doubt we have some volatility in global liquidity ahead (US debt ceiling to name one) but the general trend is up and to the right over the next 2 years once we get through the vol.
Price Action: As I mentioned, the price of this stock has been on a downward trend since Fed Funds rates started moving up in 2021 and has completed the bearish bat making 3 consecutive higher highs since the low in 2023. Looking at Fibonacci the targets are clear but for target 2 I am looking at the massive gap from end of 2021. My first exit before the stop loss would be losing any of the recent higher highs and the S/L is set to under the 2023 low. However, I would rely on the macro section more than price action for the exit.
Timeline: I am a 3 month to many year investor not a day trader so this is one I will layer in and buy dips for the next few months. I did take a 5% position at the entry point noted. I do think the next 2-3 years will be net positive for liquidity and assets.
Thanks
Possible second leg for BABA!! Hi, everyone, As you can see in the chart, Alibaba's stock has formed a beautiful triangle pattern after a prolonged correction in both price and time. With the divergence observed on the MACD and RSI in the weekly chart, I believe that we can expect higher numbers in the near future. The first target is $121, and the second target is $131.can monitor the trade using the weekly time frame's RSI protection trend line. #baba #nasdaq #alibaba NYSE:BABA
Disclaimer: This information or service is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice
Alibaba is overboughtAlibaba is overbought now. With a +77 RSI on it's 1 week chart and also while it's trading at the top of it's 3 year range channel. Last week, China’s central bank shared plans to cut banks reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points or half a percentage point and lower the seven-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7%. Additionally, China agreed to let homeowners refinance mortgages. Alibaba as the key beneficiary of the stimulus. BABA is trading nearly +30% in 2 weeks. I would expect a pullback 95 - 99 per share for bulls to wait for an entry and 115 -119 levels for bears to short it.
Options data:
10/11/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 4,415
Call Volume Total 12,021
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 50,861
Call Open Interest Total 80,400
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.63
10/18/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,387
Call Volume Total 6,410
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 205,644
Call Open Interest Total 234,503
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.88
11/15/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,111
Call Volume Total 1,661
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.27
Put Open Interest Total 60,199
Call Open Interest Total 177,252
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.34
BABA can gain 37% 3.2 billion in cash generated on the quarter and 7% revenue growth. Net income was low but only due to unrealized write downs year over year on their investments. I think this will rebound at $76.96 by Monday. This new support was resistance from January 2023- May 2024. Hopefully this can run to $105.42!
BABA overbought.....need a correction for further moves......www.tradingview.com
BABA just overbought made lot of gaps, yes it may not cover all gaps from $80 breakout but $100 psychological support would be a nice test to make further new highs.
BABA SELL+++++ WAY OVERBOUGHT ON DAILY AND WEEKLY CHARTS!BABA gave very little back yesterday when it tested the previous days high of $106.10, we are severely overbought on daily and weekly charts this is NOT a buy here, needs to test $100 first then revisit
BABA gives a sell signal After BABA break from the H&S Pattern, BABA had grown a 27% úpide, this is superformance
BABA gave the sell signal with a strong bar decresing on 30.09.2024
You could close partial to protect profit
BABA weekly is now Uptrend.BABA (and other chinese stocks) continue with Bullish momentum
Successfully formed Higher High Higher Low and EMA20 crossing above EMA50 on weekly chart indicating long term Uptrend since April 2021.
Price structure formed Support and Resistant at every 20$ Range.
Breaks psychological 100 resistant with strong MCDX banker volume. Exposing next target at 120.
MCDX Retailer is insignificant.
Next Plan : Hold the position, look for further buy opportunity when pullback and retest at 100 zone.
BABA still a SELL++++BABA still a SELL, still overbought here with first target $102.59 I sold my puts this morning and hoping to re enter on a bounce since we closed on the low of the day
BABA on watch for cluster breakout 🚀Currently below resistance zone/100 SMA resistance, Daily close over 78.78 and rally to 88.11-95.26 should come pretty quick..
boost and follow for more! 😶🌫️
BABA: What happens next after this insane rally?Alibaba despite today's correction, remains massively overbought both on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 81.819, MACD = 5.940, ADX = 34.506) and on 1W (RSI = 75.158, MACD = 5.970, ADX = 33.938). As the price almost reached the 1W MA200, we expect a technical correction near the 1W MA50, which is the pattern the stock followed on its previous historic expansion in 2016-2017. We expect a similar Channel Up to dictate the trend and peak late 2025 - early 2026 (TP = 200.00).
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BABA - Great Rally - Can it overcome $140? $165?It's a great day! I hope you're all having a wonderful trading day!
Quick update on BABA - in the video I discuss the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension tool which is built right into Tradingview and how fibonacci tools are some of the ONLY forward looking projection indicators out there. Ichimoku Cloud is another (we'll save that complex beast for another day).
We've had a serious rally on BABA (and really the whole Chinese stock market in general) recently and while I think that trend can continue, we should keep seasonality in check and realize that after big rallies, there are always pullbacks awaiting. This is how the market is designed to take your money. Here's the scenario:
You see BABA trading at $70 and think it'll go lower - if you're a holder, maybe you sell. If you are looking to buy, you probably want to buy it lower.
BABA starts to rally significantly, exhibiting a 67% rally over the course of approximately 10 months. You start to get anxious because you missed such a large move.
You decide you want to buy because the last week alone has seen a significant move, but you didn't do a bunch of research to realize that BABA is about to potentially pull back, so you buy.
BABA starts a pullback. Let's assume you buy today at $110 and it pulls back to $98 - a decrease of ~11% - your hypothetical $11,000 investment is now only worth $9,800 - so you decide to be "responsible" and cut your losses to prevent further losses, when in reality, that's the best time to actually buy in.
What's my point? If you're only just now looking at BABA, you're probably feeling FOMO right now. Fear Of Missing Out. There's a reason Berkshire has loads of cash in their holdings. They're waiting for pullbacks in the markets to buy. You should, too. If you miss BABA, there will always be another opportunity. There's hundreds of new opportunities in the market every single day - you just have to do the grunt work and find it.
Alibaba Group (BABA) Share Price Rises Over 30% Since Early SeptAlibaba Group (BABA) Share Price Rises Over 30% Since Early September
As shown on the Alibaba Group (BABA) stock chart, the price surpassed $107 on the NYSE on Friday, after trading below $85 at the start of the month.
Bullish sentiment surrounding Chinese stocks is driven by the authorities' plans to stimulate the country's economy:
→ According to Benzinga, China’s Central Bank shared plans last week to lower the banks’ required reserve ratio (RRR);
→ The Central Bank also outlined further support measures for the struggling real estate market.
It appears that market participants expect these economic stimulus measures to benefit Alibaba Group (BABA).
Technical analysis of the Alibaba Group (BABA) stock chart reveals:
→ The historical high above $300 was reached in October 2020, after which bears dominated the market. Signs of bullish activity emerged between 2022 and 2024 as the stock fell to $70.
→ In 2024, the price broke through three descending trendlines (marked in red) drawn through key highs, and the price movements suggest a new upward channel is forming (marked in blue).
→ The RSI indicator is at a multi-month high, signalling strong overbought conditions, while Friday’s candle closed with a long upper wick (a sign of increased bearish activity).
Although the current bullish momentum may still have room to lift Alibaba Group (BABA) shares to the upper boundary of the blue channel, given the information above, there is a significant likelihood of a correction forming in early October.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
BABA SELL +++++BABA is even more overbought on all indicators than it was at the close Thursday, if you have a short position I would add here. First target is fib .236 $100.41 second $94
ALIBABA updateBaba is approaching tp1 let's expect some pull back,then we gonna see how it react if we need to invest more, then those who didn't get a chance will get their entry when it pulls back,I know alot of investors didn't take this opportunities do to how this markets being moving for many mouths,n we still not comfortable to invest more but after a pull back will see if China will end this year higher or low but am expecting more movement to the upside.
China China China... It Comes From "ChiNAH"My plan here is very clear and labeled.
This is a strong turning point for china as the US markets are starting to roll over, this can be a great opportunity for china stocks to rocket and Biden trying to limit our ability to purchase them.
The reduction target is $70-73According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline to the target of $ 70-73. The timing is not clear when we will get there, but according to the schedule of the decline of #HSI1, we should reach it by October 2023, there will be an excellent point for going to long to new heights.
Alibaba (BABA): Stagnation Phase or Momentum Boost?We are currently experiencing a phase of stagnation with Alibaba, as the stock remains in a new accumulation phase after breaking out of the previous one. The price might retest the Point-of-Control along with the trendline that was broken during the breakout, potentially providing a good momentum boost.
Despite the sideways movement, our position remains profitable. From a long-term perspective, our entry looks strong, with a 10% stop-loss from our entry point. The upside potential for Alibaba is significant, given how far the stock is from its historical highs.
The main concern with Alibaba is the jurisdiction risk, as it is a Chinese stock and subject to influences from China, which adds a layer of risk not present with American stocks. Nevertheless, as long as the price stays above $72.38, the outlook remains positive. Losing this level would be unfavorable and could indicate further downside risk.
In summary, we remain optimistic about Alibaba's potential, keeping a close watch on the key support levels to manage risk effectively.
BABA - will say BABA'YE to the bottom soon! Massive UPSIDE ↑ I'll keep this one simple.
KEY NOTES:
HISTOGRAM HIGHER LOWS - weekly
PRICE SHIFT - HIGHER LOWS weekly
Strong MAJOR BLOCK ORDER SUPPORT Bounce
Bubble up volume surge - net buy positions +++
Massive "GREEN" earning calls last March 2023 EPS beat by 13.10%.
HUGE net income on 1Q 2023: $23B at +367%
Spotted at 84.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard Capital always.
BABAan upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
Alibaba (Elliott Wave)Hello friends
In Alibaba stock, we see the formation of a 5-wave impulse pattern, whose waves 1-4 have been completed.
The alternation between wave 2 and 4 is also observed.
So we expect the growth of the share in the majority of wave 5.
Basically, wave 5 is not as fast and sharp as wave 3 and is usually slow and sluggish, but we expect the share to grow to $88.
Consider the stop loss range of $73, because the upward trend has been broken and wave 4 has entered the range of wave 1, which invalidates our theory.
To support me, I recommend you install Trading View software on your phone and see my analysis and support me with your comments and Boost. Be successful and profitable.
BABA - Dumb Money Trap On Good News?BABA
A little bit of devil's advocate here and to be clear; my high time frame bias is that BABA is in either beginning Mark Up bull market or it is in the latter phase of accumulation.
BABA has been in a long term accumulation drifting sideways out the pitchfork over the last few years.
And we have identified the bullish bowl shape in previous ideas.
Chinese stocks such as BABA have had a big lift as positive news of government stimulus measures were reported.
But when good news arrives, what does it bring into the market??
Dumb money.
And what do market makers do to dumb money??
They shake them out / trap them.
So this isn't an obvious chart pattern, but it is worth noticing that BABA is @ 1:1 Golden Window here and so a 3 wave correction may be completing.
Remember that 3 wave upside corrections are very common in accumulations before the real uptrend.
BABA has been asleep for ages but suddenly it wakes up and all the fanboys rush in on good news.
Worth noting also that BABA is now oversold on the day time frame for the first time since 2023.
So technically this is not really an obvious 3 wave correction because it is a bowled shape and they can lead to very bullish action.
Psychologically however, this is an ideal place for a shakeout 😅.
If the top was in here then it may get back to the 0.618 @ $77.06.
This is why as I always say it is good to buy in the sideways drift.
There is nothing wrong with buying up here with higher time frame bias, but lets see how this plays out 🤔.
If it does get back there is, it will be a great dip buy opportunity...
Not advice
