US DOLLAR UPDATE4H demand zone was reached, and price initially reacted strongly with a bullish close. However, buyers lacked momentum, and with fundamentals like Friday’s UoM data coming in lower than forecast, confidence in the economy weakened, leading to a drop.
From a technical standpoint, price will seek lower demand, but for shorts to be confirmed, the invalidation point must be broken, not just spiked. Let’s wait and see how the market unfolds.
Blessings,
T
DXY trade ideas
$DXY IdeaWhen analyzing the weekly DXY chart, we identify the presence of two CRTs: one bullish and one bearish. However, the bearish CRT has a low probability of success due to the candle formation and the fact that the price is still in a discounted region within the range.
Given this, our initial expectation is for the price to drop at the beginning of the week to seek liquidity in the equilibrium region of the daily range, which coincides with the 50% level of the bearish CRT. This movement may act as a correction within the predominant trend, pushing the price up toward the premium region of the weekly range. From that point, we will once again look for selling opportunities, as the market may resume its downward movement.
Based on this analysis, we initially seek selling opportunities down to the equilibrium region. Once this level is reached, we will wait for confirmation of a bullish reversal to look for buying opportunities up to the 50% mark of the bullish CRT.
DXY 1H – Potential Sweep Before Uptrend ContinuationThe Dollar Index recently closed above a previous lower high, signaling a possible bullish trend continuation. However, the recent drop has only seen wicks covering the higher low, suggesting this may just be a liquidity sweep rather than a true bearish reversal.
📊 Key Observations:
✔ Higher Low Sweep: Current price action suggests liquidity is being grabbed before a potential move higher.
✔ Daily Structure: This move aligns with a possible sweep on the D1 timeframe, meaning a bullish reaction could be imminent.
🔎 Next Steps: Watching for bullish confirmation before taking long positions. If price reclaims support, a continuation toward higher levels is likely.
Dollar milkshake theory is intactLots of people are trained bots against the US dollar. They have an instinctual reflex, saying it’s going up to freeze up into an Ice 9 situation, or inflate away like Weimar Republic. Neither has happened. These npc’s fail to understand that the US export most of those dollars. There’s more overseas demand for dollars that native demand. This keeps the inflation in the States at bay, and makes it impossible in the end for any other fiat to compete. We’re watching this play out in the charts with the Euro and the Canadian dollar. The euro is playing footsies with parity to the Dollar, and if parity cannot be stabilize between the pair, the Euro is destined to collapse against the dollar. All of this is in the apparent and what I’m reading into the candles. It’s not witchcrafts
Dollar Bullish To $118?!During the last market analysis I said I remain bullish on the DXY for the upcoming future & that bias still remains the same. After the strong bullish rally from October - December 2024, The Dollar started off this year with an ease off, seeing prices drop for the first quarter of 2025. However, this cool off has not changed the long term perspective for the Dollar as we still remain bullish. This correction (sell off) this quarter was simply a dip.
The Dollar has completed its Wave D consolidation phase & is now getting ready for further upside towards Wave E. Wave E being priced around $116 - $118.
Hope you sold DXY and still selling?This dxy really tested my resolve this week. I was expecting this sell on Wed and Thurs because I have no other objective to the upside as I said in my previous post. But it continued ranging and in that range I lost money. Reason been I was breaking even, entering again since I thought it was a sure move and stopped out many times. It made me also lose my 3 open positions. Now I'm left with just one.
The market can be irrational more than you can remain solvent.
It is okay to reduce risk, it is okay to wait for higher timeframe confirmation.
What is not okay is rushing into a trade and losing money even when you're right.
My objectives for the downtrend are highlighted on my chart. Look at them, I will also update you when I see a possibility of a retracement.
Follow me as most of my trades are market order and not just lines on chart. You will be able to see them on time and trade them with me.
Dollar Index 4hr analysisContinuing our scenario analysis and forecast on the weekly and daily timeframes, here are the reasons for which we believe that at the moment the most likely scenario to play out is scenario 1 (dollar strength), from now on or soon:
1. the flat most likely to play out in the daily is a regular flat (dark blue) because the flat inside it (light blue) is the one that looks most proper, or "ideal", as it has a perfect correction inside it to mark the b wave (marked by a circle, both on the chart and on the macd).
2. the contracting flat that you can see in part 2 of our daily analysis, is a terrible looking correction because even it it were a contracting flat, still the b wave inside it should be the most corrective piece, and it isn't.
3. there is growing divergence on the way down in this last move down on the 4hr, which indicates a potential turn.
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Thank you for viewing.
USD index bearish trendThe analyst expects the correction to end when the USDX reaches a value of 101.800. This is the predicted target for the end of the "C" wave of the correction. Once the index hits 101.800 (according to this analysis), the correction is expected to be complete, and the USDX may then resume its previous (likely upward) trend.
In short: The USDX is expected to fall to 101.800 to finish a temporary price dip (correction) that's shaped like an ABC pattern.
A number of markets March 27th 11:00 PM this video was about 40 minutes and is a follow-up of what happened since yesterday's video. regarding gold and silver... the market went as I expected that made this a very profitable market for me when metals that I've held for a long. Of time. a number of markets went as anticipated.... and the video tonight shows what the market might do as it goes lower on coffee and what might happen if the dxy moves lower as I think it might and that this could further add to the bullish patterns for gold and silver.... we will have to wait let's see what the market does on Friday. I spend a lot of time trying to show what a market is probably going to do predicated on the tools that we use to give us a sense for how the buyers and sellers affect the market if you learn to spend time reading the market...... but you have to do the analytic process in real time and you need to be willing to make a decision in real time as opposed to waiting for the market to move for another hour or two or more before you see the pattern. part of the trick is to see the reversal pattern very early up to take more money out of the trade because you've got in early.... this matters. simple patterns like an ABCD pattern and extensions help you find the reversal before other Traders who do not use these tools see the opportunity. if you make more money when you get into a good trade sooner and you get out of a trade that has been moving in your direction because you see it's coming to the other side of the market... you might be bullish but the Market's coming to sellers so you get out. if you manage to do this your analysis will give you much more range when you need it and if you do this long enough you'll know when a market is trading in One Direction but it's ready to reverse. experience this doesn't just happen.... you have to be engaged and asking the questions in real time in order to find the opportunities also the risk.
Dollar Bullish To $118?! During the last update I said I remain bullish on the Dollar for the upcoming future & that bias still remains the same. After the strong bullish rally from October - December 2024, The Dollar started off this year with an ease off, seeing prices drop for the first quarter of 2025. However, this cool off has not changed the long term perspective for the Dollar as we still remain bullish. This correction (sell off) this quarter was simply a dip.
The Dollar has completed its Wave D consolidation phase & is now getting ready for further upside towards Wave E. Wave E being priced around $116 - $118.
DXY Monthly Analysis: Key Support Holding, Bullish Move Ahead?📊 DXY Monthly Chart Analysis (March 27, 2025)
Key Observations:
Current Price Action:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 104.267, with notable resistance ahead.
Price is consolidating within a key demand zone (~102.5–104) after rejecting higher levels.
Technical Levels:
Support Zone: 100.2–104 (Highlighted in purple)
Resistance Zone: 112.5–114.7 (Highlighted in purple)
Major Resistance: 114.77 (Previous high, acting as a supply zone)
200-MA Support: Located below current price, offering a long-term bullish confluence.
Market Structure:
Price remains in a higher time-frame bullish trend but is experiencing a correction.
The "BOSS" level (Break of Structure) suggests a prior bullish breakout.
If the demand zone holds, a bullish continuation towards 112.5–114.7 is possible.
Projected Move:
A bounce from 102–104 could trigger a rally toward the upper resistance zone (~112.5).
A break below 100.2 could indicate a shift in trend and further downside.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a critical decision point. Holding the current support zone (~102–104) could fuel a bullish continuation toward 112–114, while a breakdown below 100.2 would weaken bullish momentum.
DXY:Today's Trading StrategyTrump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars, aiming to force the return of many automotive manufacturing and related industries through the "tariff stick." However, the actual situation is more complex. Currently, there are significant issues within the US domestic industrial chain system, with declining quality and craftsmanship, failing to meet the needs of many automotive manufacturing enterprises. As a result, this measure is unlikely to achieve the desired effect and may even harm the US itself. The US Dollar Index is the first to bear the brunt. Upon the market's confirmation that Trump has officially signed the order and tariffs will be imposed, the pressure on the US Dollar Index suddenly emerged, squandering the hard-earned advantages accumulated yesterday. This led to a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index early today.
Regarding today's trading strategy, it is recommended to adopt a trading approach based on the market's oscillatory trend. One can seize the opportunity to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs and buy non-US currencies at lows, as the current market demand indicates that the US Dollar Index cannot truly rise, nor will it experience a significant decline for now. Therefore, it is advisable to find opportunities to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs during the market's oscillation.
Trading strategy:
buy@103.70-103.80
TP:104.50-105.00
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Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over New TariffsThe U.S. dollar traded weaker on Thursday, dropping 0.22% in the DXY index, despite the release of economic figures that slightly exceeded market expectations. This negative move becomes technically significant as it occurs near the 200-period moving average, a key level that was breached earlier in March, placing the greenback under greater short-term selling pressure.
The key economic data released was the Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed an annualized growth rate of 2.4%, marginally above the expected 2.3%, though representing a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, which rose 4%, its fastest pace since Q1 2023, and higher government expenditures (3.1%), partially offsetting declines in fixed investment and exports.
Despite the apparent economic optimism suggested by these figures, the underlying strength of the dollar remains questioned due to recent trade policy decisions by the Trump administration and the significant deterioration in consumer sentiment during Q1 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the announcement of new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts, effective from April 3. Trump labeled this date as the "Liberation Day" for the U.S. automotive industry, asserting the primary goal is to stimulate local production and correct historically unfair trade practices.
However, substantial risks emerge from this policy, including potential disruptions to global supply chains, a significant increase in new vehicle prices (ranging from an additional $4,000 to $12,200 per unit), especially affecting electric vehicles highly dependent on imported components, and inflationary pressures that might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current pause on restrictive monetary policy.
Additionally, the auto industry immediately reacted negatively, with shares of giants like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis declining, while Canada and the European Union strongly opposed the measure, considering potential retaliatory actions that could escalate global trade tensions.
In this scenario, markets closely watch Friday’s release of the PCE inflation report and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index, indicators that could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's next moves. The Fed remains cautiously on the sidelines, evaluating the real impact of governmental trade policies on inflation and economic growth.
Ultimately, although today the dollar exhibited technical and fundamental weakness, its future outlook continues to hinge significantly on domestic and international political and economic dynamics, promising continued high operational volatility in the near term.
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DXY - How Instant Gratification Kills & Patience Pays Earlier in the month I shared a trading idea on the DXY looking at potential buying opportunities based on a Bullish Cypher & test of structure.
There was some negative feedback from that original idea, simply because the trade didn't reverse "right away" - Today, I'm going to update you on this idea as well as share with you some thoughts on how instant gratification can ruin traders and how patience literally pays off when it comes to trading.
If you have any questions and comments, please leave them below and I think the podcast episode that I'm referring to in the video was episode 1131 "How To Avoid Panic and Protect Profits" - Not 100% sure about that though.
Akil
Dxy aka usd 26 Mar 2025updated uptrend channel, price still bullish for usd as price break out earlier and stay above neckline, looking for more upside, ideally towards the supply region
Which if come true, eur, gbp etc should continue falling
If price do close below channel strongly, it could suggest a shift in trend.
Good luck
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Strong Bullish Sentiment
As I predicted yesterday, Dollar Index continued growing.
Analyzing the intraday price action today,
we can see that the market established a nice rising channel on a 4H.
I think that the Index will keep rising within a channel and will reach 105.0 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
DXY Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.402.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.208 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Dollar Index Technical AnalysisThe Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a key weekly resistance zone around 110.26, as shown in the chart. Here's a breakdown of the technical analysis:
Resistance at 110.26:
This level has acted as a critical barrier, causing the current pullback. The index has struggled to sustain momentum above this zone, indicating potential exhaustion for bulls.
Trend Reversal Signals:
The large rejection candles at resistance indicate seller dominance. If the weekly close remains below 109, we could see sustained bearish momentum.
Support Levels Below:
105.35–105.66: Key support zone acting as the next likely target for bears.
103.33–103.82: A significant level to watch if the decline accelerates, providing a potential buy zone.
Shift in COT Data:
The bearish shift in the COT index aligns with the resistance rejection, adding fundamental weight to the technical setup.
Outlook:
With Trump’s policy announcements expected soon, the DXY is at a critical turning point. A break below the immediate support at 108.79 could lead to a drop toward the 105 range. Conversely, if bulls defend this zone, we might see a retest of the 110 resistance.
Trade with caution, as geopolitical and policy events may drive volatility in the coming weeks.