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USD Dramatic Drop on Recession ConcernsWhile tariff talk was a driver of strength for the USD, even into late last week, that dynamic has shifted, and it seems that the driver is worry or concern about possible recession in the U.S. economy. Just last Wednesday, President Trump had a comment regarding tariffs on Europe, taking place around lunch time in New York. At the time, EUR/USD had just begun to re-test the Fibonacci level at 1.0523 again, but that comment helped to prod a pullback, and soon, a shorter-term reversal. That weakness in EUR/USD and strength in USD lasted into the end of the week, but so far this week, a very different tone has taken over. This is probably helped at least in-part by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Now stat, which suggests a contraction for GDP for Q1. This is in stark contrast to the data point less than two months ago and it highlights the dimming in data that's shown of late. This has helped to push expectations for rate cuts even higher, and that's been the dragging point for USD so far this week. Now, with weakness in the mix for the U.S., those tariff concerns are being perceived as another point of weakness and another factor that could further drive weakness into the USD. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
1
Reasons for dollar to stabilizeDollar strength is expected to stabilize or persist into 2025 for several reasons: Economic growth differentials: The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, outpacing the 1.7% growth forecast for all developed markets. This is driven by superior productivity growth, higher business investment and fewer labor supply issues compared to other developed markets. Such robust growth, which has contributed to inflation remaining above 2%, may lead the Fed to halt rate cuts sooner than expected. This makes a dollar weakening unlikely in the short term. Monetary policy differentials: The increasing divergence in global growth has led to a greater disparity in central bank policies worldwide. As a result, the gap between U.S. 10-year bond yields and those of its key trading partners has widened to its highest level since 1994. These differentials may remain elevated, as markets are currently pricing in only a limited number of Fed cuts next year (44bps), compared to 110bps for the ECB and rate hikes of 47bps in Japan. Policy changes: The upcoming administration's focus on boosting domestic manufacturing, increasing tariffs and deregulating industries could spur business growth and sustain higher interest rates, supporting the dollar. President-elect Trump has also discussed imposing tariffs or other measures on countries that challenge the dollar's trade dominance or reserve currency status. Even with the factors supporting the dollar, its ascent is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Currently, the dollar is two standard deviations above its 50-year average, suggesting limited room for further appreciation. Historically, the dollar has alternated between periods of strength and weakness, making a downturn likely at some point, though the timing is uncertain. Additionally, the U.S.'s persistent trade balance deficit, at 4.2% of GDP as of September 2024, poses a long-term constraint, highlighting a structural challenge that could eventually pressure the currency. A strong dollar can hurt international company performance for U.S.-based investors. It can also negatively impact U.S. companies with significant international exposure and U.S. exports by making goods more expensive abroad. While a stronger dollar could bolster the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative in 2025, investors should carefully assess its potential impact on their portfolios. Technically, we had a cup and handle formation, which we previously broke. Now, we are in the pullback of the break, and it make a triangle for wave 4. Remember wave dos was a flat. For that matter, this strong down momemtun, could be a retracement or wave 2 of 5.
TVC:DXY
by TRADINGACPVIP
US DOLLAR Approaching Key Support – Will Buyers Step In?TVC:DXY is approaching a key support level, highlighted by strong buying interest. This area aligns with a trendline support level, increasing the likelihood of a bullish bounce if buyers step in. If the price confirms support within this zone through bullish price action—such as long lower wicks or bullish engulfing candles—we could see a reversal toward 106.200, a logical target based on previous market structure and price behavior. However, if the price breaks below this support zone and sustains, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, potentially leading to further downside. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
TVC:DXYLong
by TrendDiva
17
Dollar Index - End of February Analysis- Below the opening price of the 3-month bullish order block, a monthly BISI @ 104.636 – 105.420 presents itself - Failed to see last months high taken out all whilst trading into the 6-month SIBI. Last months lows has been taken although price closed inside the previous. months range - Studying a draw to February's low @ 106.126 as the 1st point of interest - Monthly candle body closure above the midpoint of Februarys high and open will negate this idea.
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
Your current most important DXY target until...The first target scenario in my mind for DXY is the Monthly fair value gap. Market structure is now aligned for that too to play out. - A monthly bullish gap is present below current price (inside the monthly accumulative range) - A weekly bullish gap is being disrespected to the downside (indicating the lack of momentum, leaving this range) - On the daily, price respects and creates bearish PD arrays. I'm bearish on the higher timeframes, targeting the Monthly fvg, as long as price is closing below the Daily gap outlined in the chart. (This is not to say that there are no high quality trades on the lower time frames, such as targeting the most recent daily gap to the upside) Ok be safe byyyyyyy
TVC:DXYShort
by spekularmin
DxyThis is a technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on a 2-hour timeframe. The chart indicates a bearish outlook, with price currently at 105.166 and showing signs of a downtrend. Key Observations: 1. Downtrend Confirmation: The price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish momentum. 2. Supply Zone (Red Box): A red zone is marked at the top, indicating a possible resistance or supply zone. This suggests that if the price moves back up into this area, it could face selling pressure and drop again. 3. Projected Price Action (White Box & Arrow): The gray box below represents a potential target zone for the bearish move. The zigzag pattern inside the box suggests a possible minor retracement before continuing downward. Conclusion: The analysis suggests a sell scenario if the price respects the supply zone and rejects it. A break above the red zone would invalidate this bearish outlook. The target area appears to be around 103.866, which aligns with a previous support level. Would you like any modifications to this analysis?
TVC:DXYShort
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
DOLAR INDEX UPDATE: WEEK 11 OF 2025 FORECASTDOLAR INDEX UPDATE: WEEK 11 OF 2025 FORECAST Theme: Decoding the Dollar Index’s Next Moves in 2025 Based on the weekly chart cycle, the Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to hit the following levels in Week 11 of 2025: Upper Range: 107.6 - 108 Lower Range: 106 - 105 - 103.5 The lower range reflects the primary trend, signaling a bearish lean, while the upper range represents a short-term recovery wave. Keep an eye on these zones—2025’s twists could hinge on them!
TVC:DXYShort
by rainbow_sniper
DXY March 4 London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactionsDXY March 4 London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactions Price came down took sell side liquidity and rebalanced 15M FVG in Asia. Price came up to the range CE and 50 level and rejected. Price had clear targets of sell side liquidity. Price was weaving in a wick imbalance. Price At 2 macro Price comes up to the .70 OTE level and into a first presented FVG. Price is so heavy and should be obvious that it is a bear market. Note- Price did not want to retrace to the previuos range however in backtesting just to the 50 on the RB 50. If truely in a bear market this is a indicator. Touches the 50 and rejects-it should. Price came through the volume imbalance Price came through 3 sell stops I had noted. Price came down to ICT's FVG she noted 3 weeks ago. Price is respecting the session 50 level. All great learning. Very messy chart and it for study
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena