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DXY reversal, Bullish for BTC, but 50 day chop is likelyGood Sunday, dear friend! I'm scribbling down some ideas I had. It's good to be back home after a week on a job project. TradingView on a phone is awesome, but I definitely prefer a bigger screen. The chart was not as clean as I wished, but it just tells some history with the correlations between DXY and BTC. For instance: Q4 2022 - DXY tops (BTC bottoms). Trend reversal for DXY (BTC corrects ABC after W1 after bear market). DXY declines to a WCL, BTC soars from 25k to 73k. In the meantime, as BTC soared, DXY also inclined, which led to an extended correction of 7.5 months. DXY rolled over in June 2025, and there was a 60-day lag before BTC felt the boost from the DXY decline. This leads us to today. DXY and BTC have gone up together. I believe the last leg up is a consequence of the June - September decline of DXY, and BTC went up with DXY, and BTC is now left to feel the consequences of the DXY upturn. Given DXY (most likely) topped 11 days ago, we might chop for 50 more days before BTC resumes upward. In the last WCLs, DXY retraces a minimum to 0.786. In this case, the trendline suggests a March timeframe for a low in DXY. History suggests the BTC local top is in when DXY bottoms, or is soon to top in about 2 months.
TVC:DXYShort
by martinxi5u4
Dollar Index for Next 2 yearsThe Dollar Index (DXY) has been a critical gauge of the U.S. dollar's strength, and its movements are closely monitored by traders worldwide. Based on my analysis, I believe the next two years will bring significant challenges for the dollar, potentially leading to a heavy decline. In my view, the DXY will struggle to hold above 120, even in the case of temporary fake breakouts or sharp rejections. This level represents a strong historical resistance zone, and any attempt to break higher is likely to face immense selling pressure. However, what’s more concerning is the potential for a deep bearish trend, with the index dropping below 95 during this period. Several factors could contribute to this scenario. A pivot by the Federal Reserve toward more accommodative policies, slowing U.S. economic growth, and the growing global efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade could all weigh heavily on the index. Technically, the long-term charts indicate that the dollar is already facing structural resistance, and a break below key support levels could accelerate the decline. If the DXY does drop below 95, it could trigger ripple effects across global markets, impacting currencies, commodities, and equities alike. This level represents a critical threshold that could reshape market sentiment and trading strategies. Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is not financial advice. The markets are highly volatile, and unexpected macroeconomic or geopolitical developments could drastically alter this outlook. Always conduct your own research and manage risk carefully when trading. Let me know your thoughts in the comments—do you see the Dollar Index heading for a crash, or do you have a different outlook? Let's discuss! #DXY #Forex #DollarIndex #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
TVC:DXYShort
by Safari_Trader
DXY Possible Daily Formation?This may just be a massive rationalization but let me know what your thoughts are please. I feel that maybe this is a very sideways H&S, with NFP data earlier today price shot higher into a big daily resistance, thus making me feel it will reject and complete this pattern. Unless of course it continues to break ceilings, then we can give the dollar a new name. Bitcoin. This is not an idea for marking TPs and SLs i am just curious if fellow traders could see this as a possibility. Feedback greatly appreciated. Preferably kind feedback lol. Ive noticed trading view minds and ideas are quite aggressive and condescending at times in the replies to others ideas.
TVC:DXYShort
by andrewsbregar9
2
Global Markets Show Moderate OptimismGlobal markets closed the week with a tone of moderate optimism, driven by President Trump's statements at the World Economic Forum, where he advocated for an immediate reduction in interest rates and a softer approach to imposing tariffs on China. However, uncertainty regarding the trade and fiscal policies of the new U.S. administration, coupled with mixed economic data, kept investors cautious. Stock indices record weekly gains Major global stock markets ended the week in positive territory, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. Optimism fueled by Trump's remarks, along with strong corporate earnings, boosted stocks. The German DAX extended its winning streak to nine consecutive days, while the French CAC 40 reached its highest level in seven months. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng posted weekly gains thanks to Beijing's support for the stock market. The dollar weakens against stronger counterparts The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, hitting a one-month low. The strength of the euro, British pound, and Oceanic currencies reflected uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and optimism from economic data in Europe and other regions. The Japanese yen also appreciated following the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates. Key movements in Latin America In Latin America, the Brazilian real appreciated to an eight-week high, supported by foreign direct investment inflows and easing inflationary pressures. The Colombian peso also strengthened, while the Mexican peso posted significant weekly gains. However, Mexico's economic activity slowed more than expected in November, raising concerns about the recovery pace of Latin America's second-largest economy. Mixed trends in commodities Gold approached its all-time high, driven by the weak dollar and Trump's comments on interest rates. Silver also appreciated, while copper showed operational weakness due to supply concerns. Oil recorded a weekly decline due to Trump's pressure to lower crude prices. Economic data and monetary policy Economic data released during the week painted a mixed picture of the global economy. Private sector activity in the Eurozone unexpectedly expanded, while German manufacturing contracted at a slower pace. In the UK, services sector activity exceeded expectations, though employment growth remained weak. Regarding monetary policy, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and hinted at further increases. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates next week, while the Bank of England may follow suit in February. The U.S. Federal Reserve meets next week, and while rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor signals regarding future policy directions. Key factors to watch in the future Markets will closely follow the Trump administration's policies, particularly regarding international trade and fiscal policy. The trajectory of the global economy, decisions by central banks, and geopolitical tensions will also be critical factors to watch in the coming weeks. In summary, global markets remain in a state of cautious optimism. Mixed signals from the Trump administration, economic data, and uncertainty about the future of the global economy keep investors on alert. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
My Analysis of the DXY ChartLooking at this chart, the DXY is moving within an ascending channel defined by the two white trendlines. Based on my analysis, there are a few key levels to watch, especially the Fibonacci retracement levels. First, if the price starts to drop from the upper boundary of the channel, it is likely to retrace down to the 0.61 Fibonacci level. This is an important support zone, and the price might bounce back up from here. However, if the 0.61 Fibonacci level doesn’t hold, the price could continue falling towards the 0.78 retracement level. This level is a much stronger support and could trigger a significant reversal if the price reaches it. Finally, the lower boundary of the channel, marked by the white trendline, serves as the ultimate area of support. If the price falls this far, there’s a strong chance it will bounce back upward within the channel. This analysis highlights the key zones where the price is likely to react and helps identify the next potential moves for the DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by professionalgoldtrader
DXY BEARISH DROP INCOMINGWhat's up chat Degen Jake Here once more with an update on Dollar Index, and my personal psychological thoughts when it comes to this pair. I've been waiting for the dollar to do an upside liquidity grab for it to start falling in my last trading view idea I see I posted the DXY on the 2D time frame interval and it was way too long so the moves were hard to see, BUT! the Dollar ended up doing as we thought it would. If you go on the chart I had published on Jan.8 you can see how the dollar moved up taking its sell-side liquidity and then started to move down. Here is where we find ourselves approx. 2 weeks later. We can see how the dollar has begun to shake to the downside. NOW what we are waiting for patiently is to see how the dollar will react in the current price level we see here now. Its a big Support level on the 4HR Time frame and truth-fully we would like to see the dollar after now taking these RED horizontal rays (liquidity buyside){from the 4HR and D Time Frames} To go back to the upside from here and try and take some sell side liquidity sitting on top marked by the white and yellow horizontal rays. I predict it smacking the first and MAYBE the second white horizontal rays before it continuing to shake to the downside after that. Let's wait patiently and see what it ends up happening before we input any sells. I've drawn out what I think will happen. Now we wait for a sell opportunity and GO IN! {VISUAL GUIDE:} Eclipses: Green Triangles Indicating Gaps in either the Monthly time frame or the Daily time frame. Black Lines: Represent Active Monthly liquidity. Blue lines: Represent Active Weekly liquidity. Yellow lines: Represents Active Daily liquidity. White lines: Represents Active 4HR liquidity. Green Landscape Line: Represents Trumps inauguration. Red Landscape Line: Represents 1st Lunar Cycle, FOMC, & Possible Psyop incoming which all has negative sentiment.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by DegenJake_
DXY at Crossroads? Break in Trend Points to Dollar WeaknessUnless we see a significant rally into Friday’s close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) weekly chart suggests the cycle high may already be in. The current three-candle pattern resembles a textbook evening star, often seen at turning points. An opposite morning star signal in early December proved accurate, as did the evening star in late June last year. This latest signal is notable, especially as it coincides with a break in the uptrend that followed Trump’s election win. Adding to the bearish case, the RSI (14) uptrend from September has been broken, and while not yet confirmed by MACD, it too appears to be in the early stage of rolling over. Traders should watch for a potential break of support at 107.75, a level DXY has bounced off in three of the past four weeks. If that level gives way, downside targets include 106.736 and 105.44. Although not technical, it’s worth noting the market has trimmed expectations for Fed easing this year, dropping from six cuts to fewer than two since September. This shift leaves the dollar vulnerable given how much bullish sentiment towards the US economy is already priced in.
TVC:DXYShort
by FOREXcom
1