Get started
US Dollar IndexUS Dollar IndexUS Dollar Index

US Dollar Index

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Seasonals

DXY trade ideas

BEARS STILL IN CHARGE ! DXY- USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25 BEARS CRUSHING THE USD! Professional Risk Managers 👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. ✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. ✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. Pairs to look out for - EURUSD - BUY USDCHF - SELL USDJPY - SELL USDCAD - SELL GBPUSD - BUY - Perhaps it's time to accept that a recovery in the DXY is not occurring anytime soon... 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
TVC:DXYShort
by JCFRGNT
DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend or Just Retrace? The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after weeks of relentless selling pressure, but this bounce is now approaching key decision zones just ahead of two critical events: the April PCE report and the next FOMC meeting. With macro data and sentiment diverging, traders should closely monitor how the dollar reacts to upcoming catalysts. 🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT Core PCE Price Index (Apr) – due Friday – is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected print may reinforce the “higher for longer” stance on rates. FOMC Minutes revealed a growing divide within the committee: some members remain open to further tightening if inflation stalls. Bond market stress is emerging again, as 10Y yields hover near 4.5%. Fiscal concerns and treasury auctions are weighing on investor sentiment. Political noise – particularly from former President Trump’s shifting tariff threats – adds short-term volatility to USD expectations. 🧠 Bottom line: While the dollar has regained ground, macro risks remain asymmetric. A hot PCE may spark short-term demand for USD, but structural credibility risks are still on the table. 📊 TECHNICAL INSIGHT – H1 STRUCTURE Price Channel: DXY broke slightly above a well-respected descending channel that started mid-May. EMA Confluence: EMA 13, 34, and 89 are beginning to align upward but haven’t fully confirmed a bullish trend yet. Key Retest Zone: 99.08 is a critical zone — a Fibonacci 38.2% level of the recent breakout. A hold here may support another test higher. 🔑 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS Immediate Support: 99.08 (Fib 38.2% + channel retest) Mid Resistance: 100.02 (round number + previous structure high + near 200 EMA) Major Target Zone: 100.48 (Fib 61.8% + multi-day pivot) 📈 POTENTIAL PRICE SCENARIOS If DXY respects 99.08, a continuation toward 100.02 and even 100.48 is plausible as a technical correction. If DXY fails to hold 99.08, the breakout above the trend channel may turn into a false break, opening the door for a re-test of lower channel support near 98.30. Watch for price behavior around 100.02 — aggressive sellers may re-enter at this level, especially if macro data disappoints. ⚠️ STRATEGIC REMINDER Avoid chasing mid-range price action. Let the market reveal its hand post-PCE. Volatility is expected to spike — be patient and let key levels define directional conviction.
TVC:DXYLong
by MMFlowTrading
US DOLLAR INDEX Correlation Between Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates 1. Bond Prices vs. Yields Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When bond prices rise, yields fall (e.g., demand for safe-haven assets drives prices up). When bond prices fall, yields rise (e.g., selling pressure due to inflation fears). Example: A 1% Fed rate hike can cause bond prices to drop, pushing 10-year yields up by ~1.3% . 2. 10-Year Bond Yields vs. Dollar Index (DXY) Positive Correlation: Typically, higher yields attract foreign capital into USD assets, strengthening the dollar. A 1% rise in 10-year yields historically correlates with a 1–2% DXY appreciation . Risk-Off Scenarios: Investors may flock to both Treasuries (pushing yields down) and USD (DXY↑), weakening the usual correlation . Policy Divergence: If the Fed delays rate cuts amid global easing, yields and DXY may diverge temporarily . 3. Interest Rates vs. Dollar Index (DXY) Direct Relationship: Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar by attracting yield-seeking capital. A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike can boost DXY by 1–2% . Example: In 2018, Fed rate hikes to 2.5% drove DXY gains of ~8% . Inverse Impact on Bonds: Rate hikes depress bond prices (yields rise), reinforcing the DXY-yield link . 4. Interest Rates vs. Bond Yields Policy-Driven: Fed rate changes directly influence short-term yields, while long-term yields (e.g., 10-year) reflect growth/inflation expectations. The 10-year yield often leads Fed policy shifts. For example, yields fell 150 basis points ahead of 2019 rate cuts . The 2-year Treasury yield is particularly sensitive to Fed expectations, serving as a "policy barometer" . Summary Table of Relationships Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with 10-Year Yields Bond Prices ↑ DXY ↓ (safe-haven flows weaken USD) Yields ↓ (inverse bond price-yield link) 10-Year Yields ↑ DXY ↑ (capital inflows) — Interest Rates ↑ DXY ↑ (yield appeal) Yields ↑ (policy tightening) Risk-Off Sentiment DXY ↑ (safe-haven demand) Yields ↓ (bond buying) Key Exceptions and Contexts Term Premium Dynamics: Recent 10-year yield spikes (e.g., to 4.54%) are driven by market psychology (90% due to deficits/inflation fears vs. 10% fundamentals) . Economic Growth Differentials: Stronger US GDP growth (vs. peers) supports both yields and DXY, while weak growth decouples them . Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions (e.g., US-China tariffs) can strengthen DXY as a safe haven, even if yields dip . Conclusion The Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-year bond yields generally share a positive correlation, reinforced by interest rate policies and capital flows. However, this relationship can weaken during risk-off environments or when fiscal/monetary policies diverge. Bond prices and yields remain inversely tied, while Fed rate decisions directly impact both yields and the dollar. Traders should monitor growth data, inflation trends, and central bank signals to navigate these interconnected dynamics. #DOLLAR #USD #GOLD #SILVER #COPPER
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Beware, the US dollar is at a technical crossroads 1) The US Dollar remains the weakest major Forex currency in 2025 The US dollar has had a difficult year on the foreign exchange market (Forex), recording a decline of over 9% against the world's major currencies, despite the Federal Reserve's continuing rigid monetary policy. Technically speaking, the DXY index has reached several theoretical bearish targets, notably according to Elliot analysis, but has not yet touched the key objective of the A=C movement. This dynamic is also evident in the strong chartist compression in weekly data, placing the USD at a potential breakout point. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs are also in long-term hinge configurations, and institutional positions remain broadly bearish on the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. Two interesting charts on the current situation are presented below: the first shows Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, and the second is a theoretical reminder of how Elliott waves work. As long as the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (DXY) remains below the indicated pivot line, the trend remains bearish, with a target of 95/96 points. Conversely, a rebound above the hinged pivot line would put an end to the US dollar's annual correction, with the starting point for a technical recovery. 2) A weakening dollar despite an inflexible Fed: how to explain this paradox? The apparent paradox of a falling US dollar while US interest rates remain high and the Fed does not expect to cut rates before September/October, goes beyond simple rate differentials. At a time when the ECB has already embarked on a policy of monetary easing, the rate differential with the Fed should normally support the USD. However, other factors are taking over: the markets' growing mistrust of US assets, fuelled by trade tensions and uncertainty over Trump's fiscal policy, is weakening demand for dollars. Added to this is a major liquidity factor: the recent increase in the money supply (M2) in the United States and the decline in reverse repo operations, which reflect an implicit easing of financial conditions. This easing is encouraging persistent downward pressure on the greenback, despite a Fed that remains intransigent on rates. The next release of US PCE inflation, scheduled for Friday May 30, could play an important catalytic role: a higher-than-expected figure would strengthen the case for an even firmer Fed, which could offer the USD a temporary technical rebound. Conversely, confirmation of disinflation would fuel bets on future easing and accentuate selling pressure. In short, the US dollar is not only at a technical crossroads, but also a fundamental one, suspended between forthcoming monetary action and deeper signals from the global liquidity market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
USD vying for Monthly Doji after April Support BounceMonthly charts are often underapprecaited by many retail traders. Sure, they're not very actionable as there's only 12 per year but they can do a great job of highlighting trends and broader market themes and, of interest for this scenario, possible turns. As a case in point, back in January the US Dollar had a full head of steam, and there was nary a bear in sight. But that month showed as a doji in the USD and in February, the tariff theme started to take over. It was a mild pullback that month but collectively, after two months of bulls stalling, many were ready to pull the plug and that's what showed in March and continued through April as the January doji led into a stern sell-off and fresh multi-year lows. In April, the USD was hit hard by a combination of tariff drama and trend continuation and a major spot of support eventually came into play around Easter Monday, taken from a trendline projection as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2022 major move. The bounce wasn't automatic, as there was a slow grind of higher-highs and higher-lows that got another boost around the FOMC rate decision earlier in May. That rally ran all the way until a major spot of resistance came into play at 102, at which sellers reacted. But at this point they've been stalled at another major spot on the chart of 98.98, which is helping to set a higher-low. And from the monthly chart, the USD is currently showing a doji on the monthly bar for May, which sets the table for a possible turn as we trade into the summer months. Key for this coming to fruition will be continued recovery in USD/JPY, which has had a major impact in the USD of late. And if we do see that theme of USD-strength continue, I still favor EUR/USD as a major pair of interest for that theme. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY 4H Breakout? Bulls Eye Momentum Shift!Hey There; The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have reached a critical turning point from a technical analysis perspective. According to Elliott Wave Theory, following a five-wave downtrend, the AB corrective wave has been completed, and a bullish movement towards the C wave is emerging. This scenario could signal a transition from a bearish market to a bullish one. Technical Outlook: - A move towards 104.460 on the DXY may indicate that the market is entering a strong recovery phase. - The completion of the AB corrective wave suggests that buyers are stepping in, driving upward momentum in price action. - The C wave typically retraces a portion of the prior decline, creating potential for a higher price level. Macroeconomic Factors: - U.S. monetary policy and inflation data remain key determinants of the dollar index’s trajectory. - Increased global risk appetite may bolster the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. - U.S. Treasury yields could provide additional support for DXY’s upward movement. If DXY successfully reaches 104.460, this could confirm a shift into a bullish trend. However, the strength and sustainability of the C wave will depend on supportive volume and momentum indicators. The interplay between technical and fundamental factors could drive a solid recovery in the dollar index. Should this scenario unfold, it may mark the beginning of a renewed period of dollar strength against global currencies. However, market dynamics and macroeconomic developments must be monitored closely to validate this outlook. Guys, every single like from you is my biggest source of motivation when it comes to sharing my analysis. A huge thank you to everyone who supports me with their likes!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by TraderTilki
DOLLARThe US Dollar Index (DXY) Yearly Support and Potential Sell-Off to 96 Zone: Role of 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rates 1. Technical Outlook: DXY Support Breakdown and 96$ Target and Critical Support Levels. The DXY recently breached the 200-week moving average (200-WMA), a key multi-year support level, signaling a potential trend reversal . A sustained break below 98.00 could trigger a steeper decline toward 96.00-95$ long-term uptrend ascending trendline acting as 6months support floor connecting 2008, 2011 and 2020, . However, analyst projections also highlight the 96–95 zone as a plausible target if Fed rate cuts and macroeconomic headwinds persist . Current Context (May 2025): The DXY is testing 98.4 on weekly charts, with bears eyeing lower supports amid weakening USD sentiment . A drop to ascending trend line on 6months would align with forecasts tied to Fed policy shifts and global currency strength . 2. 10-Year Bond Yield and Interest Rate Dynamics Direct Relationship with the Dollar: The 10-year Treasury yield and USD share a strong correlation: higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting dollar demand, while lower yields weaken the currency . As of May 2025, the 10-year yield hovers near 4.54%, down from peaks but still elevated compared to global peers . Impact of Rate Cuts and Policy Divergence: Fed Rate Expectations: Markets price in five Fed rate cuts by late 2025, which would reduce yield advantages and pressure the dollar . Policy Divergence: The ECB and BoJ are expected to maintain or ease policies, while the Fed delays cuts, temporarily supporting USD. However, prolonged easing could reverse this advantage . 3. Key Drivers of Dollar Weakness Toward 96-95 ascending trendline Bearish Factors: Yield Decline: A drop in the 10-year yield (e.g., due to Fed cuts or recession fears) would erode USD appeal. For every 1% decline in yields, the DXY could fall 3–5% . Risk Sentiment: A "soft landing" scenario or rally in risk assets (stocks, commodities) may reduce safe-haven USD demand . Tariff and Geopolitical Risks: Escalating US-China/EU trade tensions could weaken the USD if global growth fears dominate . Bullish Counterpoints: Hawkish Fed Surprises: Strong US data (e.g., inflation, jobs) may delay rate cuts, keeping yields and the dollar elevated . Safe-Haven Flows: Renewed geopolitical/market turmoil could revive USD demand despite lower yields . 4. Summary: Interplay Between Yields, Rates, and DXY Factor Impact on DXY 10-Year Yield Rises Strengthens USD (investor inflows) 10-Year Yield Falls Weakens USD (capital outflows) Fed Rate Cuts Pressures USD (narrows yield gap) ECB/BoJ Easing Supports USD (policy divergence) Path to 96: A combination of Fed rate cuts, declining 10-year yields, and stronger global currencies (EUR, JPY) could drive the DXY toward 96–95 . Reversal Risks: Hawkish Fed pivots or safe-haven demand amid crises may stall the decline. Conclusion The DXY’s potential drop to the 96–95 zone hinges on sustained declines in the 10-year Treasury yield and Fed rate cuts, compounded by technical breakdowns. While policy divergence and safe-haven flows offer temporary USD support, broader macroeconomic shifts (e.g., tariff risks, global growth) could accelerate the sell-off. Traders should monitor yields, Fed rhetoric, and technical levels on demand floor and supply roof for confirmation of bearish or bullish momentum
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DXY | Harmonic Patterns | Technical Analysis. Recovery Underway?TVC:DXY Over recent sessions, I’ve been highlighting a critical zone for the TVC:DXY between $98.70 and $98.80 , where several important technical patterns are forming that could signal the start of a rebound after the recent decline. ➡️ The dollar broke below the Head and Shoulders neckline at $100.27 , hitting the default target I projected at $98.69 , which corresponds to the 200% Fibonacci extension. This is a classic confirmation of the breakdown and subsequent drop. ➡️ However, since reaching this level, the TVC:DXY has begun to form strong bullish patterns: Bullish Crab Pattern at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, projected at $98.91 Bullish Alt-Bat Pattern at the 113% Fibonacci extension, at $98.80 These emerging bullish setups suggest a solid potential reversal, indicating that the TVC:DXY might be preparing to recover. 🎯 The default targets for these bullish patterns are around $99.95 , aligning with key resistance zones and Fibonacci confluence. Summary: The TVC:DXY has completed the expected downward move from the Head and Shoulders pattern and is now showing clear technical signs of a possible reversal. The price action in the coming sessions will be critical to confirm whether the index can sustain this recovery toward higher levels. Safe Traders, André Cardoso
TVC:DXYLong
by Andre_Cardoso