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Trump’s Inauguration: What Lies Ahead?Capping a decisively sweeping victory on 5 November 2024 in what many called a ‘historic comeback’, Republican Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States (US) on Monday at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST). This marks his second run for the highest office. The ceremony is set to take place at the Capitol building. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to oversee Trump's oath of office, followed by an inaugural address that the incoming President himself has said will be a message about ‘unity’ – very different from his 2017 speech that portrayed the country as ‘American carnage’. Outgoing president Democrat Joe Biden has said he will attend the ceremony, a courtesy not extended by Trump for the former’s inauguration four years ago. Additionally, and in a break from tradition, world leaders have been invited to the ceremony for the first time, including China's President Xi Jinping. Although he will not be attending, Vice President Han Zheng will do so in his place. In addition to world leaders, several influential figures are expected to attend. Elon Musk confirmed his attendance – who, alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, was recently nominated to head up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). We can also expect Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, to be present. What Can We Expect from Trump? Trump has assured the world of a hard-hitting approach towards illegal immigration, which is anticipated to include plans for the mass deportation of undocumented migrants. He stated he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out’. Trade tariffs are another key policy that the global economy can expect, as he is anticipated to increase the protectionist policies his administration introduced in the first term. About a year ago, Trump noted that ‘except for day 1’, he would not be a ‘Dictator’; this, as you would expect, sparked outrage from critics. However, if we know anything about Trump, he has a long – some would say ‘colourful’ – history of making incendiary statements that trigger both support and anger as well as generate a torrent of headlines. Undoubtedly, the first 24 to 48 hours of the Trump administration will be eventful and likely elevate volatility across key asset classes, such as Currencies, Bonds, Stocks, and Commodities. The new government is expected to sign over 100 executive orders on day one. Although not usually as many orders, this is a regular practice for incoming Presidents as part of the transition process. I expect Trump to make a statement on his first day in office that may make ‘a few heads spin’. We will likely observe executive orders directed at a crackdown on the US-Mexico border, along with orders focussing on issues such as energy, trade, and actions affecting Federal workers. Additionally, he is expected to roll back any executive orders initiated by the Biden administration that have not yet been finalised. Markets Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration I do not expect to see much price action ahead of Trump’s big day; however, technically speaking, US dollar (USD) bulls remain in control. According to the US Dollar Index, the USD is on track to finish the week moderately lower, snapping a six-week winning streak. The Team and I have been banging the drum about monthly resistance on the US Dollar Index at 109.33 for a while now. This level entered the fray following a three-month rally just north of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA), currently trading at 101.12. With the Relative Strength Index progressing above the 50.00 centreline (positive momentum), this could eventually nudge the USD beyond current resistance towards the 2022 high of 114.78. As seen from the daily chart of the US Dollar Index, the 200- and 50-day SMAs (at 104.68 and 107.32, respectively) are pointing to the upside; you will also note that price action is comfortable north of both dynamic values and that a Golden Cross (50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA) developed in late 2024 – all of which are considered bullish indications. Current price action is shaking hands with resistance at 109.29 (Quasimodo resistance), and sellers have displayed limited enthusiasm as of writing. Absorbing willing offers here pave the way towards another layer of neighbouring resistance at 110.78 (another Quasimodo resistance), followed by the 2022 pinnacle at 114.78, as mentioned above.
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
TVC:DXYLong
by David_Perk
7
DXY overbought its time to drop Sell Signal Issued for DXY A sell signal has been triggered for the US Dollar Index (DXY), indicating a potential downturn in the Greenback's value. Key Factors: 1. Reversal of Monetary Policy Dynamics: The favorable monetary policy dynamics that previously supported the Dollar's strength may be losing momentum. 2. Weakening US Economic Trends: The reasonably steady US economic trends that supported the Dollar are showing signs of weakness. 3. Decreasing Safe-Haven Flows: The softer growth outlook that drove safe-haven flows towards the Dollar may be losing its impact. 4. Technical Breakdown: The DXY has broken below a key support level, indicating a potential technical breakdown. Trading Implications: 1. Sell Opportunity: Consider opening a short position, targeting the next support level. 2. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order above the recent high to limit potential losses if the trend reverses. Please support me with a like and comment your opinion in comment section 🙂 Hope my idea will be profitable for you 😄 Best wishes Tom 😎
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendaryTom
2
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking
DXY Weekly Analysis: Imbalance Fill and Potential Reversal ZoneHi fellow traders, I’d like to share my analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the weekly timeframe. After observing recent price action, I've identified some key levels and scenarios that could play out: Imbalance Fill: The price has recently filled a significant imbalance area (highlighted in orange). Historically, such zones often attract price action, providing potential reversal opportunities. Price Resistance: The current price is testing a strong resistance level (marked in red). If this resistance holds, we could see a shift in momentum, leading to a potential downward move. Balanced Price Range (BPR): Below the current level, I’ve marked a strong support zone (blue). This could act as a magnet for price in the event of a retracement or reversal. Potential Scenario: My bias suggests that, after testing the resistance, the price may retrace, potentially forming a new imbalance (green zone) before moving downward toward the BPR. However, I will remain flexible and adapt to price action as it unfolds. I’d love to hear your thoughts: Do you agree with the resistance zone's significance? Are there other indicators or confluences you’re watching for DXY? How are you positioning yourself around this key level? Feel free to share your insights or any alternative perspectives. Let’s grow and learn together as a community! Happy trading, Mack
TVC:DXYShort
by Mack_the_Trade
1
The Prop Trader’s Secret: How to Trade for Real MoneyTrading for Profit vs. Trading to Make Money There’s a critical difference between trading to be profitable and trading to make money. While they may seem like the same thing, they’re not—and as a trader, you must decide which approach you want to take. If your goal is to be a prop trader who actually makes money, here’s 3 ways you shift your mindset and strategy. 1. Make Frequent Withdrawals Traders focused on making money consistently withdraw profits. I learned this the hard way during my early trading days, seven years ago. Back then, I was obsessed with being "profitable." My focus was on hitting arbitrary profit targets—green months, green quarters, and a green year. While that mindset works for hedge funds, it’s not ideal for prop traders. To succeed in the prop trading space, you need to prioritize frequent withdrawals. Hit a strong run and make 2.5%? Withdraw. Have a profitable day and the withdrawal window opens tomorrow? Even if you’re only up 1%, withdraw. Frequent withdrawals create a feedback loop: the more often you secure profits, the more motivated and disciplined you’ll be to continue nailing winning trades. Prop trading comes with inherent uncertainty, so obsessing over 10% profit targets or arbitrary milestones only sets you up for disappointment. 2. Follow the 1-1-1 Rule Stick to the 1-1-1 rule: Take 1 trade per day. Risk 1% per trade. Focus on 1 financial instrument. Adhering to this rule will transform your trading. You’ll avoid overtrading, reduce your exposure to losing streaks, and eliminate the emotional tilt that often leads to blowing accounts. This discipline has kept me consistently profitable over the years. Whether you’re trading GBPUSD, EURUSD, XAUUSD, or US30, pick one instrument and master it. The path to trading success is as much about mastering yourself as it is about mastering the market. 3. Focus on Small Risk-to-Reward Ratios (R:R) Small R:R trades may not sound exciting, but they’re the backbone of consistent profitability. Catching a 1:10R move might feel like the ultimate trading achievement, but are you here to be "profitable" or to make money? Make up your mind. Most traders chase high R:R setups, only to give back 80% of their gains after one emotional mistake. Instead, focus on smaller, attainable targets: Learn to consistently spot 1:2, 1:3, and occasionally 1:4 R setups. On a $200k account, a single 1:3R trade at 1% risk generates $6,000. After locking in a winning trade, withdraw your profits and repeat the process. Over time, these smaller, consistent gains will make you far richer than grinding for massive R:R setups and risking it all in the process. The Bottom Line Prop trading is about discipline, consistency, and the ability to extract real money from the markets—not just hitting arbitrary profit goals. By making frequent withdrawals, following the 1-1-1 rule, and focusing on attainable R:R setups, you can trade with confidence, avoid burnout, and get make real money! Isn't that why we're all here? Happy Trading
TVC:DXYEducation
by Pips4Breakfastx
2
US dollar index remains elevated, but for how long?The US dollar index continues to show strength and with the potential reduction in the amount cuts this year by the Fed, there might be further strength of MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX . But could this be the case in the short-run? Let's dig in... TVC:DXY RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
9
DXY Is Going Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 109.133. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 107.416 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
2
DXY can still growI am seeing that on a daily basis the strength of $ against Rials is increasing the only option that iran has is a strong attempt to bolster production at all lines of industry at leat to 300 to 600% of the current status. only in this way we will be able to slow down or halt this currency weakness against the US dollar. it has bee alleged that iran can absorb around 2 trillion dollars in foreign investment to boost its economy. after the start of the revolution there has been a downtrend in investment.
TVC:DXYLong
by loginmusa
Dollar strength stopped as December CPI cools The dollar retreated further as the deceleration in core CPI for Dec increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in June FOMC rose to 67% from 57%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stressed that inflation is approaching the 2% target again and price pressures were continuing to slow. Failed to hold EMA21, DXY consolidates near the 109.00 threshold. The index briefly broke below EMA78 and the trendline, indicating the possibility of a bearish transition. If DXY fails to hold EMA78 and the trendline, the index may fall further to the support at 108.30. Conversely, if DXY breaches above EMA21, the index could regain upward momentum toward the 110.15 high.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness