DXY bearish scenarioThe dollar index remains under pressure below 107.00. The 106.00 level supports the index, and we need a break below to continue on the bearish side. 105.00 level is the next target.
DXY trade ideas
US October PCE Price Index PreviewToday, Australian CPI inflation numbers (Consumer Price Index) have already been seen, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced a 50-basis point (bp) cut during Asia Pac trading. In addition to Q3 24 US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data coming in unchanged, the October US PCE price index (Personal Consumption Expenditures) will hit the wires at 3:00 pm GMT and is forecast to have risen on a YY basis (year on year).
PCE Data Expected to Report Higher Numbers
Market expectations, according to Refinitiv data, suggest YY headline and core (excludes volatile food and energy prices) US PCE data has risen to 2.3% (from 2.1% in September) and 2.8% (from 2.7%), in October, respectively. Additionally, the October Personal Income and Outlays report is anticipated to show a 0.4% gain in personal income compared to 0.3% in September. This may seem surprising in light of the miserable jobs report we just had in October, though we must remember that wage growth has indeed increased.
Rate Cut Still Likely in December
PCE data are closely monitored by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and is their preferred measure of inflation. The Fed works to an inflation target of 2.0%, and assuming a higher PCE print today, this may be a little too hot for comfort and could prompt the central bank to consider hitting the pause button next month. We also have to remember that Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is not in any rush to cut rates while other Fed members have emphasised caution regarding easing policy too fast.
In my humble opinion, however, today’s PCE data is unlikely to prompt a pause from the Fed in December. Still, I feel we are now approaching a stage of a potentially shallower easing cycle, given inflation remains stubbornly north of the Fed’s inflation target. That said, should higher-than-expected jobs data be received next week, this could boost the chances of a rate hold next month and will likely underpin the US dollar (USD). Money markets are pricing in around 15 bps of easing for the December meeting (investors are assigning a 55% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps next month over a 45% probability they hold).
Seeing as both CPI and PPI (Producer Price Index) inflation numbers have already been released for October, these data help calculate the PCE figures. You will likely recall CPI inflation data came in line with economists’ estimates; however, YY headline inflation rose to 2.6% in October, increasing from September’s rate of 2.4% and marking the first upward shift since March. The largest upward contributor to CPI inflation was housing – more than half of the rise was down rising prices in housing – with food prices also rising in October. PPI inflation also increased across headline and core measures in October to 2.4% (from 1.9% in September) and 3.1% (from 2.9% in September).
While both the CPI and PCE Indexes attempt to measure consumer prices by tracking changes in the prices of a specific basket of goods and services each month, the CPI assigns a far greater weighting to shelter than the PCE Index does, which highlights that the PCE data could still fail to reach estimates.
Dollar Index Fading Range Resistance
As shown from the daily timeframe of the US Dollar (USD) Index, price action is fading quite a substantial range resistance from 107.21. This is a level the FP Markets Research Team have been watching closely for a while now, as a breakout from here could send the Index towards monthly resistance at 109.33.
However, a daily support area between 106.13 and 106.50 is currently in play, which could, given the room to run for monthly resistance, pose a problem for USD sellers.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
DXY - Correction in ProgressWe analysed DXY / Dollar few days back and it was highlighting a Bearish move. This move is in progress and so far we have a Correction Wave A & B completed. Correction Wave C might take dollar even lower depending on macro outlook i.e. ceasefire deal / Fed rate decision etc.
Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
USDX: Trend in 2H time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
Dollar Down and Crypto PumpsHoping for DXY to drop down to the lower range and allow liquidity to keep flowing into crypto so we can keep pumping. Also watching BTC.D closely, if this breaks down and makes a new lower low then we can say with a lot more probability that Altcoin Season or Alt season is truely upon us.
Lets watch and wait! I am in a few positions, XRP/DOGE/VIRTUALS ready for the action.
Not financial advice, lots of volatility and risk out there, watch out for the bulls too.
Will the Dollar Index Redefine Global Economic Equilibrium?In the intricate dance of international trade and geopolitical strategy, the Dollar Index emerges as a critical compass navigating the turbulent waters of economic uncertainty. The article illuminates how this financial barometer reflects the profound implications of proposed tariffs by the U.S. administration, revealing a complex interplay of currencies, trade relationships, and global market sentiments that extend far beyond mere numerical fluctuations.
The proposed tariffs targeting key trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China represent more than economic policy—they are strategic maneuvers with potential seismic shifts in global trade dynamics. As the Dollar Index climbs, reflecting the U.S. dollar's strength, it simultaneously exposes the delicate balance of international economic relationships. The potential consequences ripple through supply chains, consumer markets, and diplomatic corridors, challenging the post-World War II trade paradigm and forcing nations to recalibrate their economic strategies in real time.
Beyond the immediate market reactions, these developments signal a broader philosophical question about economic sovereignty and interdependence. The tariff proposals challenge long-established multilateral agreements, potentially accelerating a transformation in how nations perceive economic collaboration. While the immediate impact is visible in currency fluctuations and market volatility, the long-term implications could reshape global economic architecture, prompting a reevaluation of the U.S. dollar's role as the predominant global reserve currency and testing the resilience of international trade networks.
Trade Recap: USDJPY - LONG, 26/11/2024UJ Bias Analysis: Not the best looking pair in hindsight, but with a clear counter-trend established to the upside, price had corrected to the 79% discount level during NY Killzone, sweeping session liquidity before entry confirmation was received.
Grade: Low Risk
What I did well or could've done better:
- Executed according to the plan and managed the position accordingly.
Dollar index and strong climbsAccording to the analysis of the dollar index, it reached the pre-announced range, but in order to achieve the future goals, it needs a correction and then climbs again.
This can start after the new year and reach the target of 120 during the presidency of Donald Trump.
What do you think about this analysis?
What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?
DXY long moveDXY chart on the 2H timeframe shows the price trading towards a demand zone, indicating bearish pressure after the earlier upside movement. The pair is approaching a key horizontal support level, a significant area that has previously acted as both support and resistance. This level also aligns with the 88.0 Fibonacci Retracement, adding further confluence for potential price reactions.
If the price breaks below this demand zone, it could signal a bearish continuation, as sellers may gain control. However, if the demand zone holds, there is potential for a bullish reversal, leading to a rebound toward the next supply zone.
DeGRAM | DXY has fallen below the retracement levelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
During the closing of the gap, the chart formed a new one and then sharply went down and closed the new gap.
The price has already reached the resistance level, the upper trend line and the upper boundary of the channel and has now dropped below the 62% retracement level.
The chart has broken the ascending structure.
We expect a decline.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Dollar Index - Nearing the end of a correctionThe latest update is that we are trading in an A-B-C flat correction, and more precisely in the C-wave, which should develop in 5-waves as well. It appears that 3-waves have completed and we are now in the corrective 4th wave that should be followed by one last run higher that could target 108.95/109.50. If we are right, this should hopefully be the end of the Dollar’s bull run and lead to another wave of selling
DXY Poised for Potential ReversalDXY Poised for Potential Reversal
DXY tested a strong zone dating back to September 2024. The odds suggest that DXY could begin a reversal process from its current position near 107.50 - 108.00.
Based on previous analysis, DXY performed well, and the chances for a similar performance are high.
The support areas to watch are located near 106.20, 104.70, and 103.50.
However, on the bigger picture, it's expected to move down even further up to 101.00
📺You May Watch The Video For Further Details 📺
Thank you:)
Dollar still has room for push to 109Although the dollar looks overextended 109 is still possible.
There fore I expect a new lows on the EURUSD.
you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion.
What is CLS?
This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of all markets.
CLS operates in specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing.
Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
DXY: Early Black Friday Deal?Hello traders. Happy new trading week.
The Asian session kicked off the new week with quite a dramatic drop in the Dollar Index.
On the daily and 4H charts it has reached support. The weekly value i comfortably above all MA's.
I exited my EUR/USD short at the 4H close which was right at the 50% retracement of the 0.95361-1.12758.
I suspected that the dramatic drop was due to not only economic concerns but more about the Russian/Ukraine war escalation after President Biden approved the use of USA made long range missiles to be used by Ukraine. This notion was reinforced by the appreciation of the JPY, the classic safe haven currency.
There are a number of 1st tier USD economic releases due this week culminating with Eurozone CPI on Friday and RBNZ rate decision midweek. Keep an eye on those.
Far be it from me to look a gift horse in the mouth. A lot of heavy lifting was done by the big players last week by running stops on DXY to a two year high of 108.07. The illiquid conditions at the Asian session opening dropped it back to daily support.
I have shorted EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level and shorted NZD/USD at 0.5868 and keeping an eye on the next daily closing level at 0.5876.
Finally, Happy Thanksgiving to USA traders and best wishes to everyone else. TIP: The Asian session on Thanksgiving day can sometimes produce good illiquid trading opportunities. Just saying. Not investment advice.
DXY weekend forecast updateLooks like DXY is going for the external range liquidity into internal range liquidity move
Market News Report - 24 November 2024It's become clichéd to report another bullish week for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen and the British pound were among the most bearish.
The dynamic with the greenback is interesting in that, despite the bearish fundamentals, the currency is still pretty strong. Let's cover this idea and more in our latest market news report.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points/bps from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing.
While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with STIR pricing indicating one more 25 bps cut in December. However, Powell stated on November 14th that the economy isn't giving signals that the Fed must be in a rush to cut rates.
The Dixie continues to head north, touching the key resistance at 107.348. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their decisions going forward.
The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations.
Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. Actually, the dollar is among the euro's main drivers.
The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.04485. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround.
The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously.
Despite this, we saw a slight increase in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures.
Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, incoming CPI (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of last month. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention.
At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish mood. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.'
We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen.
Australian dollar (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged last week, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight.
Diarise the upcoming CPI for the Aussie on Wednesday.
Despite the slightly bullish fundamentals, the dollar is dominant against the Aussie. The key resistance level lies ahead at 0.69426, while the major support remains at 0.63484. Despite this bearish setup, consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD in your overall analysis.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired.
It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD).
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut this Tuesday of potentially the same magnitude.
Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias.
The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. While lingering around 0.58498, another considerable support target is nearby at 0.57736.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
A 50 bps rate cut is predicted for the meeting on Tuesday. They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle.
As with the Aussie, potential headwinds for NZD are considered due to the trade tariff issues between China and the United States.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%.
The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.'
Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers.
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.39468. While the new target in the meanwhile is 1.41058, let's see what happens around the former area. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the October CPI came in weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data).
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut next month.
Conclusion
In summary:
The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand.
The NZD interest rate decision is the main high-impact economic event this week.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few months.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
update on the dollar indexas analysed dollar price respected analysis , signalling the buy positions in GU ,EU, GOLD . as initiated, to confirm and further reversal on dollar , we will consider a reversal at the attentified next draw on liquidity or bearish movement towards the 1 hour fair value gap. so far the buys on eurusd, eurcad, gbpusd, played out as analysed on dollar index . further confirmation will be provided if the bearish trade will continue
Potential Pullback on the Horizon for DXYHi there,
The RSI is below 50, indicating a bearish DXY trend. The drop has two price target zones that appear to be retracement zones. The bearish pressure is at 107 but seems weak.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice.
DXY ANALYSIS The DXY is testing key level, e.g., 107.000- 107.200 resistance after a sharp spike due torecent market event. A breakout could signal further upside, but failure may lead to a pullback toward support level. Watch for upcoming event or data to guide the next move.
short term *sell*, / pullback$ Poised to pullback from recent highs, to key support levels as indicated in the diagram. Expect lower time frame retracements, as the market is always cyclical. However, the dollar is bullish
Super TD9 sell DXY and Avax(altcoins) opposite correlationSuper TD9 sell DXY and Avax(altcoins) opposite correlation
DeGRAM | DXY index aims to close the gapDXY is near the lower boundary of the rising channel above the trend lines.
After a pullback from the resistance level, the chart formed a gap, tested the trend line and returned to the ascending channel.
At the moment the price is testing the 62% retracement level.
We expect the growth to continue after consolidation above the correction level.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
DeGRAM | DXY overboughtDXY is above the trend lines and ascending channel.
RSI indicator indicates overbought.
The price broke the channel and sharply reached an important Fibbonacci extension level.
We expect a correction.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
