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US Dollar Index

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DXY UP active zone The US Dollar trades flat and is unphased by headlines out of China about ramping up bond sales next year. Chinese policymakers plan to sell a record 3 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds in 2025, the highest on record. The US Dollar Index (DXY) resides above 108.00, very close to eke out a fresh two-year high. The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. These currencies are the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). The index started in 1973 -with the absolution of Bretton Woods- with a base of 100.000, and values since then are relative to this base. For example, if the current reading says 99.800, this means that the dollar has fallen 0.2% since the start of the index (99.800 - 100.000).Being the Dollar Index a geometrically weighted index and not a trade-weighted one, it is too concentrated in Europe and does not include two of the U.S. top four trading partners Mexico and China. It does not appear to be used by corporates or many asset managers, like mutual funds, insurance companies, and endowments. It is primarily a speculative vehicle. It's also important to acknowledge that a geometric mean artificially lowers the value of the USD over time
TVC:DXYShort
by KingForex078
1
DXY Trading plan Here’s a more detailed CAPITALCOM:DXY DXY Trading Plan: - **Buy Entry:** Enter a buy position around **107.800**, watching for price action confirmation at this level. - **First Target:** **108.000** – This is the immediate resistance and serves as a safe partial profit-taking level. - **Second Target:** **108.300** – A key resistance level, ideal for booking the remaining profits. Risk Management: - If **107.800** fails to break out or shows signs of reversal, **close the trade immediately** to minimize potential losses. Look for candlestick patterns, rejection wicks, or bearish momentum as warning signs. Additional Notes: - Monitor DXY momentum and overall trend direction on the 1-hour timeframe. - Keep an eye on related macroeconomic data or news events that could impact dollar strength.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
1
USD Index Poised for Breakout: Key Levels to WatchTVC:DXY USD Index Poised for Breakout: Key Levels to Watch Analysis: Price Action Strategy: The BOS indicates a significant shift in market structure, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The CHoCH further confirms the change in market sentiment. Equal Highs and Equal Lows suggest areas of liquidity that the price might target. Smart Money Concepts (SMC): The FVG area is highlighted, indicating a potential area of interest where smart money might enter the market. The price is currently consolidating near the FVG, suggesting a potential breakout. ICT Strategy: Fibonacci retracement levels (0.786, 0.705, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382) provide key levels for potential entry and exit points. The RSI is hovering around the 50.30 level, indicating a neutral market sentiment but with potential for upward momentum. The MACD shows a slight bullish divergence, suggesting a potential upward move. Buy Strategy: Entry: Near the current price level around 108.149, especially if the price breaks above the FVG. TP1: 108.705 (Fibonacci 0.705 level) TP2: 108.786 (Fibonacci 0.786 level) SL: 107.847 (Fibonacci 0.382 level) Sell Strategy: Entry: If the price fails to break above the FVG and shows signs of reversal. TP1: 107.928 (Fibonacci 0.5 level) TP2: 107.847 (Fibonacci 0.382 level) SL: 108.705 (Fibonacci 0.705 level) Buy Signal: entry: 108.149 tp1: 108.705 tp2: 108.786 sl: 107.847 Sell Signal: entry: 108.705 tp1: 108.149 tp2: 107.847 sl: 108.786 Follow @Alexgoldhunter for more strategic ideas and minds
TVC:DXY
by Alexgoldhunter
The Relationship Between Dollar Dominance, Debt, and Deficits The US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency grants the United States a unique set of economic advantages and challenges. This "exorbitant privilege," as it's often called, significantly influences the nation's ability to manage its debt and deficits. Understanding this complex relationship is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the global financial system and the US economy's position within it. Dollar Dominance: A Foundation of Economic Power The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency means that it is widely held by central banks, international institutions, and businesses worldwide. This widespread acceptance creates consistent demand for dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury bonds. This demand is a key factor in allowing the US government to finance its debt at relatively low-interest rates. If the US were to borrow in another currency, or if global demand for its debt were significantly lower, the cost of borrowing would likely increase, making it more expensive to finance government spending. This dominance also simplifies international trade for US businesses. Because the dollar is the standard currency for many global transactions, US companies can conduct business with reduced exchange rate risks and transaction costs. This ease of trade strengthens the US position in the global economy and contributes to its overall economic power. Debt and Deficits: The Fiscal Realities Government debt represents the accumulation of past budget deficits. A budget deficit occurs when government spending exceeds its revenue in a given fiscal year. These deficits require the government to borrow money, primarily by issuing Treasury bonds, which then contribute to the overall national debt. While deficits can be used strategically to stimulate the economy during downturns or to fund essential public services, persistent and large deficits can lead to a growing national debt. A high debt level can have several potential consequences, including higher interest payments on the debt, reduced fiscal flexibility to respond to future economic crises, and potential inflationary pressures. The Interplay: Dollar Dominance and Fiscal Policy The relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is complex and multifaceted. The ability to borrow at lower costs due to the dollar's reserve currency status can, in some ways, lessen the immediate pressure to address budget imbalances. The lower interest rates make it less painful in the short term to finance deficits, potentially leading to a greater accumulation of debt over time. However, it's crucial to understand that dollar dominance does not directly cause deficits. Deficits are a result of fiscal policy decisions—specifically, decisions about government spending and taxation. Dollar dominance merely affects the cost of financing those decisions. A government could run deficits regardless of its currency's global status, but the financial implications would likely be significantly different. One could argue that the "exorbitant privilege" afforded by dollar dominance creates a moral hazard. Knowing that borrowing costs are relatively low could incentivize policymakers to engage in more expansive fiscal policies than they might otherwise pursue. This can lead to a situation where the long-term consequences of debt accumulation are downplayed in favor of short-term political or economic gains. Potential Challenges to Dollar Dominance While the dollar has maintained its dominant position for decades, several factors could potentially challenge its future status. The rise of other economic powers, the development of alternative reserve currencies, and shifts in global trade patterns are all potential threats. For example, the increasing economic influence of countries like China has led to discussions about the potential for the renminbi to become a more prominent player in the global financial system. However, for a currency to achieve reserve status, it requires deep and liquid financial markets, strong institutions, and widespread trust in the issuing country's economic and political stability. These are factors that have contributed to the dollar's strength and are not easily replicated. Furthermore, the emergence of new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies and digital payment systems, could potentially disrupt traditional financial flows and challenge the existing currency hierarchy. However, these technologies are still relatively new and face regulatory and adoption hurdles before they could pose a significant threat to the dollar's dominance. Maintaining the Dollar's Strength Maintaining the dollar's strength and its reserve currency status is a complex undertaking. It requires a combination of sound economic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to maintaining open and transparent financial markets. Sustainable fiscal policies are essential. While dollar dominance provides some flexibility, persistently large deficits and a rapidly growing national debt could eventually erode confidence in the dollar and its long-term value. This could lead to a decrease in demand for dollar-denominated assets, potentially increasing borrowing costs and weakening the dollar's global position. In conclusion, the relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is a critical aspect of the US and global economies. While the dollar's reserve currency status provides significant advantages in financing government spending and facilitating international trade, it also presents challenges in managing fiscal policy. Maintaining the dollar's strength requires a balanced approach that prioritizes sound economic management and recognizes the complex interplay between these crucial economic factors.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
10 Tips to Succeed in Forex Trading in 2025"Did you know the global forex trading market processes over $6 trillion in daily transactions?" With such immense liquidity, forex trading remains one of the most appealing avenues for traders worldwide. However, success in forex trading isn't about luck—it’s about mastering strategies, staying disciplined, and preparing for market challenges. Whether you're an experienced trader or just starting, these 10 tips will help you navigate the fast-paced forex market in 2025. 1. Develop a Comprehensive Trading Plan Trading forex without a plan is like setting out on a road trip with no map. Before executing your first trade, make sure your plan includes: Clearly Defined Setup: Understand what criteria signal your entry. Entry, Exit, and Management Rules: Set clear guidelines for every stage of the trade. Consistency: Stick to one or two strategies, and refine them through repetition. A solid plan is your foundation for consistency and growth. 2. Harness the Power of Journaling Journaling is one of the most underrated tools in trading. By keeping detailed records, you can: Track Progress: Pinpoint what works and what doesn’t. Analyze Mistakes: Avoid repeating past errors. Understand Emotional Patterns: Identify how emotions like fear or greed influence decisions. Foster Discipline: Create a routine that encourages consistency. Reflection on your past trades is an essential step toward improvement. 3. Prioritize Risk Management Successful traders prioritize protecting their capital. To manage risk effectively: Limit risk per trade to 1–2% of your account balance. Set stop-loss orders to safeguard against unexpected market movements. Calculate lot sizes carefully to avoid overexposure. Risk management isn’t optional—it’s essential for longevity in trading. 4. Make Backtesting a Habit Backtesting allows you to apply your strategies to historical data and assess their effectiveness. It helps you: Validate Strategies: Confirm they perform well under various market conditions. Spot Weaknesses: Address flaws before putting real money at risk. Build Confidence: See proof that your approach works. Consistent backtesting transforms theory into actionable insights. 5. Commit to Continuous Learning Forex trading is an evolving journey. Staying informed ensures you stay ahead. Focus on: Market Operators: Understand key participants and their impact. Critical Levels: Learn the interplay between high-timeframe and low-timeframe price action. Mastering Strategies: Choose a few models and refine them over time. By deepening your understanding, you’ll adapt to changes with confidence. 6. Keep Emotions in Check Trading success often hinges on emotional control. To manage your mindset: Avoid revenge trading after a loss. Refrain from over-leveraging trades out of greed. Take breaks to maintain mental clarity. Reflecting on emotional patterns through journaling helps you stay disciplined. 7. Diversify Your Portfolio Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. Diversification helps reduce risk and stabilize returns. Consider: Trading major pairs with high liquidity (e.g., EUR/USD). Exploring cross pairs for alternative opportunities. Balancing manual and automated trading methods. A well-rounded portfolio is better equipped to handle market fluctuations. 8. Leverage Advanced Tools Technology can streamline your trading process. Use advanced tools to: Automate trades with predefined criteria. Analyze trends with precision. Backtest strategies to refine them. The right tools free up your time and enhance your efficiency. 9. Practice Patience and Consistency Forex trading isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme. Sustainable success requires: Setting realistic, incremental goals. Reviewing and refining strategies regularly. Celebrating small milestones to stay motivated. Patience and consistency are the keys to long-term growth. Conclusion The forex market in 2025 offers immense opportunities for traders who are prepared. By following these tips, staying informed, and committing to consistent improvement, you can enhance your skills and position yourself for success. Remember, success doesn’t come overnight—it’s built through disciplined efforts and continuous learning. Stay focused, trade wisely, and make this your trading year yet! Dave FX Hunter
TVC:DXYEducation
by David_Perk
BTCUSD DXY / Powerfull Negative Correlation / Finding ConfluenceConfluence is the word of the day. This example is a difficult one especially on the lower time frames because BTC trades 24/7 whilst DXY does not, it closes with the stock market. Thus there are gaps which you are not going to visibly see on this chart. What I have marked for you though, color coded, each movement where BITCOIN moved against DXY. Thus it is anticipated when DXY goes down, BTC will move upward. The percentage depends on the market conditions and cannot be predicted. The relationship then between DXY which is the market index that measures the value of the US dollar against all other world currencies creates a domino effect through the risk markets whenever DXY hits a support or resistance region of the map. In this regard, spending time marking your chart on BTC is going to be an utter waste of time since DXY needs to be marked first and alerts set therein. Otherwise my friends you will be chasing your tail in many trades. BTC will hit a support level when DXY does not hit a strong resistance. DXY hitting a powerful resistance at the same time that BTC is hitting a support level would give some confluence. Example now is on the chart where multiple examples are presented where DXY hit a major resistance or support level and thus the following BTC movement was the opposite to the exact level. I would mark DXY first, and then mark JPYUSD, and then mark your stock market indexes. I cannot go into great detail at this time but what you will discover after a little bit of study is that markets move against each other or quite a lot with each other however it is the against movements where trades become interesting. I am not a financial advisor, be safe my friends.
TVC:DXYLong
by fritbjorn
The Best Phase of the Trend: The Expansion PhaseBeing a successful trader requires the ability to identify the phase of the trend with the highest probability of success. The best opportunities arise during the expansion phase, where the prevailing trend resumes, pushing the market to new highs or lows. This phase is characterized by swift, decisive market moves with minimal pullbacks, aligning strongly with the overall trend. My Trading Steps: 1. Define the Primary Trend on the Daily Identify the dominant trend (uptrend or downtrend) to establish the broader market context. 2. Look for a Countertrend on H4/H1 Spot corrections or pullbacks against the primary trend, signaling potential setups. 3. Find a Trigger Candle Watch for a Marubozu-like candle at the zone of the countertrend line break or the last clean, untested breakdown. 4. Exit Rules Exit the position if the price closes below the trigger line. 5. Take Profits Target key Fibonacci levels and significant support/resistance zones. a countertrend on H4/H1 This is an 80% Setup: Targeting Fibo 138.2 The strategy has an 80% success rate when the target is set to the Fibonacci 138.2 level, calculated from the closing prices of the correction. This precise targeting aligns with the expansion phase of the trend, ensuring high-probability entries and exits while maximizing potential profits. ——— We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds. Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
TVC:DXYEducation
by TheMarketFlow
Here’s an analysis of the DXY on the 1-hour chart, Here’s an analysis of the DXY on the 1-hour chart, with your updated target of 107.100: Current Analysis Trend Overview: The dollar index (DXY) is in a clear downtrend on the 1-hour chart, forming lower highs and lower lows. Momentum indicators like RSI are likely staying below 50, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Key Resistance Zone (108.100): This is the potential sell zone, where the price may face rejection. Look for a bearish candlestick pattern at or near this level (e.g., shooting star, evening star, bearish engulfing) to confirm the entry. Support Zones on the Path to 107.100: Intermediate Support 107.500: DXY might consolidate or bounce slightly here, as it's a possible reaction point. Final Target 107.100: This aligns with a major support level from prior price action or Fibonacci retracement zones. Indicators to Watch RSI: If RSI is below 40, it confirms strong bearish momentum. Any divergence (e.g., higher low on RSI while price makes a lower low) near 107.500 or 107.100 could signal weakening downside momentum. MACD: Look for a bearish crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) as confirmation to enter or hold the trade. Volume: A spike in volume near resistance (108.100) supports rejection. Similarly, decreasing volume near the target (107.100) could indicate trend exhaustion. Trade Setup for 1-Hour Chart Sell Entry: Around 108.100 (resistance zone). Take Profit (Target): 107.100. Stop Loss: Around 108.300, slightly above resistance, to account for volatility. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DXY head and shoulders pattern formation The Head and Shoulders pattern is a popular and reliable chart pattern used in technical analysis to predict potential reversals in market trends. It consists of three peaks: the middle peak (the "head") being higher than the other two peaks (the "shoulders"). Key Elements of the Head and Shoulders Pattern: Left Shoulder: Price rises to a peak and then declines. This peak forms the first shoulder. Head: Price rises again to form a higher peak and then falls. This peak is the head and is the highest point of the pattern. Right Shoulder: Price rises again, but this time to a lower peak (similar to the left shoulder) and then declines. This peak forms the second shoulder. Neckline: A trendline drawn between the low points of the left shoulder and the right shoulder. Acts as a key level of support or resistance.
TVC:DXYShort
by ksivanathan
Quick Analysis Just before Christmas Hey there, So, I though of doing a quick market review just before Christmas, hoping to bring some extra insight into whats happening in the markets this week. Also note that this is but just my opinion and my view of the markets, it should in no way be used or interpreted as advice or signals, but rather as a reference and a soundboard. Furthermore, I wish you all a happy, blessed and merry Christmas and a successful and profitable new year.
TVC:DXY
by DeanMuller