USD weaknening is coming to an end?DXY is soon reaching a 1:1 second leg down (measured at 95.678).
Similarly, EURUSD is reaching a 1:1 since the Sept 1 (2022) low (measured at 1.2046).
DXY trade ideas
Check the trend It is expected that a trend change will form at the current resistance level and a continuation of the downtrend will form. Otherwise, the continuation of the uptrend to the specified resistance levels will be possible and then there will be a possibility of a trend change at the specified resistance levels.
DXY 4H BEARISH SETUPDXY is still bearish. I’m watching for a retracement into the 4H OB, where I expect price to reject and continue the bearish move toward the 96.30 level..
USD Index preparing for fresh YTD lows?As shown on the daily chart of the USD Index, the currency has been biased to the downside for most of this year and recently met with 1M support at 96.80. This has caused the Index to modestly rebound and retest a 6M resistance at 97.39. Given this level's significance and trend direction, sellers could show from 97.39 and refresh year-to-date lows towards 1Y support at 95.67.
- FP Markets Research Team
Continuation of DXY bullish narrative, who says NO?Like I said in my last published post, dxy is bullish for now till we see otherwise. The first TP has been reached, more than 100 pips bagged, the trade is still on but I'm looking at a possiblity of compounding here. I told you guys, this trade will make you a huge amount of money if you're willing to ride it with me.
This means bearish EURUSD AND GBPUSD et al. Trade accordingly. We may have a final sweep of 97.260 area. You can wait for that sweep before entering. I'm not, I won't be on chart then but the stop will hold. Few pips won't change the trade idea will it?
Follow me as my trades are usually market order, so you'll see them on time and enter on time.
Enjoy
Dollar Index OverviewThe Dollar moving as we expect it to within the Gold Fund! As soon as we saw a '5 Bearish Wave Completion' on the DXY, straight away buyers entered the market & start pushing price back up.
My Gold Fund investors & Gold Vault Academy students know from our 'Q3 Market Breakdown Report' what we're expecting for the Dollar in the next 3 months.
3 key reasons why the U.S. dollar is losing value📉 According to J.P. Morgan, here are 3 key reasons why the U.S. dollar is losing value:
1️⃣ Oil and energy deals are now being done in other currencies
2️⃣ U.S. banks are excluded from new global payment systems
3️⃣ Countries are reducing their USD reserves
The world is slowly shifting away from dollar dependence...
#USD #DollarDecline #JPMorgan #ForexNews #DeDollarization #OilTrade #CurrencyShift #GlobalEconomy #SmartMoney #FXForever #MarketUpdate #ForexTraders #USDBreakdown #EconomicTrends #GlobalFinance
$DXY: New lows begets new lows. $USM2: Why is it increasing? Here we are again with one more TVC:DXY chart analysis. I think the US Dollar does not fail to surprise us week after week. Making new lows every week is giving a boost to the Equity markets. The SP:SPX and NASDAQ:QQQ are at ATH. In my articles on April 18 and June 16
Perfect trade setup: AMEX:GLD to 325; DXY to 95 for AMEX:GLD by RabishankarBiswal
TVC:DXY weakness and EM markets: NSE:NIFTY more upside? for NSE:NIFTY by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView
We have time and again said that in the near term TVC:DXY chart looks weak and could touch 95 by end of July. I think it might be achieved earlier. We have looked at the consequences of 95 handle on TVC:DXY on various asset classes like AMEX:GLD , NSE:NIFTY and EMs. These asset classes are reaching ATH every single week. But we have seldom investigated the reason behind the weakness in $DXY. Looking through my macro charts I found an amazing chart which might explain most of this weakness.
The ECONOMICS:USM2 is almost at 22 T $ surpassing its previous high on March 2022. M2 is basically the total amount of money in circulation in the economy on top of the nominal M1. Higher M2 indicates higher amount of liquidity which is then channelized into riskier assets like CRYPTOCAP:BTC , AMEX:GLD , SP:SPX , NASDAQ:QQQ and EMS like $NIFTY. And with such high ECONOMICS:USM2 in circulation, it is very clear why TVC:DXY is making new lows each week. This can also explain why US Fed is hesitant to reduce rates. With M2 so high US Fed should not hurry.
Verdict: TVC:DXY to 95 by 31 July, Cycle low of 90 by year end. ECONOMICS:USM2 keeps increasing. US Fed stays put.
DXY July 6 AnalysisDXY
July 6
Parent Bias Bear
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
*Good example to witness price trend for the second week-the pull back I was anticipating did occur just not to the level I had suggested in last Sundays journal
*Note Price wicked to the .70 level on the monthly
*Price took key equal lows and rebalanced a FVG from Feb 22
*Monday/Tuesday Price seek lower prices
*Mid week consolidation-expected
*Thursday price took equal highs I was anticipating
*Friday Asia
*PM session of NY price retraced to close in consolidation
*Thursday expansion to buy side then on Friday reversal
WEEK AHEAD IDEAS
*Price closes in a consolidation on the previous days range 50%
*I suspect that price could seek the minor equal highs/FVG potentially reach for the gap from Thursday possible target should it really expand - this could be Sundays delivery
*could price expand for higher prices beginning of the week
*No news until Wednesday
*Sundays delivery can affect my ideas stay open
#Dollar / #Bitcoin correlation I've previously described the correlation, and it's clear to everyone: a weaker DXY is positive for BTC.
📝Recently, the dollar has grown significantly and seems close to a local maximum (the chart is inverted). This demonstrates the strength of Bitcoin, as it was able to rise even against a strengthening dollar.
💡Imagine its movement when the new administration plans to lower the dollar price like they did last time. I think we will see a similar scenario as in 2017, when the dollar, from a local maximum, begins to provide a tailwind to the movement of assets that trade against it.
DXY Is Bearish - But A Retest is Highly ProbableThere is no denying that the overall trend is still bearish. However, price is currently respecting an H4 demand zone - which might continue to apply pressure to the upside for a minor correction.
Of course, if this correction does not happen and the H4 demand zone breaks, then we continue to ride the trend to the downside and all the way to the next weekly TF demand zone.
#TheTrendIsYourFriend
Forex Weekly Round-Up: DXY, GBPUSD, EURUSDKey Price Zones (DXY): 97.422 - 97.685
🟦 DXY (Dollar Index):
On paper, USD had a strong week:
🔹 Durable Goods smashed expectations (+8.6% vs 0.5%)
🔹 PMIs, GDP Price Index, and Jobless Claims came in solid
But the market ignored it:
🔻 Consumer Confidence disappointed (93.0 vs 99.4)
🏠 New Home Sales missed
🕊️ Fed Chair Powell stayed soft — no aggressive tightening talk
Result?
Despite strong fundamentals, DXY broke down, sweeping daily lows and printing fresh bearish structure.
It’s now down ~10% YTD — the worst first half in over 50 years.
📈 EURUSD & GBPUSD: Holding Strong Despite Weak Data
EURUSD
German Retail Sales: –1.6%
Import Prices: –0.7%
ECB tone: muted
Still, EURUSD held daily support and gained — thanks to broad USD weakness.
GBPUSD
Current Account widened (–£23.5B), GDP unchanged
No standout UK catalyst
Yet GBPUSD held its ground and edged higher as DXY continued to fall.
🧠 What This Tells Us
Strong data isn’t always enough.
When price action, market sentiment, and liquidity targets align — they override the numbers.
DXY Bullish Reversal Setup Toward 98.20 Target Entry Point
Marked at: ~97.200
The price has already reacted multiple times around this level, suggesting it's a key support zone.
🛑 Stop Loss
Placed at: ~96.930
Just below the support zone, protecting against a breakdown below recent lows.
This implies a risk of about 27 pips from the entry.
🎯 Target Point (TP)
Marked at: ~98.201
Strong resistance zone from previous price action.
Target implies a potential reward of 100+ pips, offering a risk-reward ratio (RRR) of ~3.7:1, which is favorable.
📊 Resistance Area
Around 97.419–97.465
This is the first obstacle the price must break through to confirm bullish continuation.
The 200 EMA (blue curve) is currently acting as dynamic resistance, aligning near this zone.
📉 Indicators
Moving Averages:
Red: Likely 50 EMA
Blue: Likely 200 EMA
Price is currently below both EMAs — so trend is still bearish, but trying to shift.
📌 Strategy Insight
The setup anticipates a bullish reversal from 97.200, aiming for a breakout above the 200 EMA and resistance to reach the 98.201 zone.
For confirmation, watch for a strong bullish candle close above 97.465, which would validate upside continuation.
⚠️ Risks
Price is still under both moving averages → downward momentum may persist.
If support at 97.00 breaks, downside acceleration could occur.
✅ Conclusion:
This is a bullish breakout setup on DXY with:
Defined entry and stop-loss.
Clear target.
High RRR.
But it’s crucial to wait for confirmation above resistance (97.465) before full conviction on the long trade.
DXY at the Crossroads: How the 108–110 could reshape the market
Key Highlights
The U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY is currently near an important resistance level of 108–110.
A potential reversal of the dollar at this level could lead to further growth in stock markets and strengthen cryptocurrencies, while a break above 110+ would continue to put pressure on risk assets.
If CAPITALCOM:DXY surpasses 110 and holds above it, there is a possibility of reaching as high as the 120 mark. A rejection from the 108–110 zone would indicate a downward trend developing, possibly pushing the index toward the 98 area or lower.
Future outcomes will depend on Federal Reserve monetary policy, global demand for the dollar and other safe-haven assets, as well as overall economic stability.
What about crypto?
There are serious risks for CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 & CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
A long-term perspective on ICEUS:DXY suggests that “alt seasons” tend to occur during periods of dollar weakness. Currently, the 108–110 zone and the MA50-W are pivotal. A potential DXY reversal here may act as a catalyst for another major altcoin rally in the coming months, while continued dollar strength could postpone any such “alt season.”
Shaka
DXY Trade Setup✅ Trade Setup Details:
Entry: 96.850
Stop Loss (SL): 96.650
Take Profit (TP): 97.350
✅ This is a good RRR. A 2.5:1 ratio means you're risking $1 to potentially earn $2.50 — favorable for consistent trading.
📈 Chart & Technical Analysis (based on your image):
✅ Entry is near the middle Bollinger Band and above Ichimoku cloud — a technical support zone.
✅ SL is placed below recent support and Ichimoku base, giving some buffer in case of volatility.
✅ TP at 97.350 aligns with the recent swing high or top of the breakout channel.
⚠️ Things to Watch:
If DXY drops below 96.700, it may signal weakness or a shift in sentiment — watch volume and price reaction.
If price stays above cloud and rising trendline, your trade remains valid.
🟢 Summary:
Bias: Bullish
Setup: Good technical entry with solid support below and clear resistance target.
Risk-to-Reward: Excellent (2.5:1)
Strategy: Hold unless price breaks below 96.650 with volume.
Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Trend IntactThe Dollar Index (DXY) cycle, originating from its September 2022 peak, remains incomplete and exhibits a bearish outlook, signaling potential for further declines. The descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43 as depicted on the one-hour chart below.
Subsequently, the Index extended lower, forming a nested structure. Within this decline from wave ((ii)), wave i bottomed at 97.7, with a corrective wave ii rally reaching 98.2. Wave iii then drove the Index lower to 97, followed by wave iv peaking at 97.49. The final leg, wave v, completed at 96.37, marking the end of wave (i). Currently, a corrective rally in wave (ii) is underway, aiming to retrace the decline from the June 23, 2025 peak. This rally appears to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern, with wave a concluding at 97.15 and wave b dipping to 96.69. Wave c is expected to target the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave a, projecting a range of 97.45–97.9.
Should the Index reach this zone, it may encounter selling pressure, potentially leading to further downside or a three-wave pullback. As long as the pivot high at 99.4 remains intact, any rally is likely to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure, reinforcing the bearish bias for additional declines.
DXY shortPrice had broken our support level and hence i expect i continuous downward movement in price, although price cloud retest the support level that was turn into a resistance level before continuing it bearish move.
just slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLYjust slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLY\
bullish. so very bullish
let us know!
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KOG - DXYQuick look at the Dollar index.
We've applied the red boxes to it and and we'll wait for the defence to break. If we can break this upside, our target level to the dollar is way up.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Decision Zone for DXY This Week: Around 97.600After a significant downward expansion in DXY, we observed a consolidation around last week's low. This week, the market opened with a pullback.
The first stop for this pullback appears to be the current daily fractal high candle and the weekly bearish FVG on the chart. We can assess potential selling pressure from this area on lower timeframes. We'll be monitoring the wicks within this zone, along with any newly forming FVGs.
If the price breaks above this area, our next points of interest will be the gaps within the zone above the 0.5 swing level, and ultimately the swing high itself as the final target.
Given the current setup, we believe there are promising trading opportunities on EURUSD.
Take care until the next update!
The bearish momentum is evident on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and dailyThe DXY is likely to continue its bearish trend until it reaches the 94.46 level—and it may even break below that
DXY Speculators are still net short on the U.S. Dollar Index.
But the short bias has decreased → sentiment is less bearish than before.
This shift could suggest a potential dollar rebound or profit-taking on bearish positions.
