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DXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting BreakoutDXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting Breakout On the 60-minute chart, DXY has developed a contracting triangle, which is typically a trend continuation pattern, suggesting a potential downward move. However, since this consolidation is taking time and DXY’s price action remains complex, movement in either direction is possible. The breakout will ultimately determine the next price direction, but based on current conditions, an upward move seems more likely in the near future. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:DXY
by KlejdiCuni
7
DOLLAR INDEXThe Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance in April 2025 is characterized by a cautious, data-dependent approach amid mixed economic signals and heightened uncertainty, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Key Points on the Fed’s Monetary Policy This Month Interest Rates: The Fed has maintained the federal funds target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, holding steady without changes in April. The Committee is carefully assessing incoming data before considering any adjustments to rates. Balance Sheet Reduction: Starting in April, the Fed slowed the pace of its balance sheet runoff by reducing the monthly cap on Treasury securities redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. This move smooths the transition from abundant reserves but does not signal a change in the overall policy stance. Economic Outlook and Risks: The economy continues to expand modestly with a solid labor market, but inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2% target. The Fed acknowledges increased uncertainty due to tariffs, which may simultaneously slow growth and push inflation higher, creating a challenging policy environment. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the potential conflict between the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in this context. The Fed is prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, depending on how economic data evolve, but currently prefers to "stand pat" and await clearer signals on the economy’s response to tariffs and other factors. Inflation and Employment: Inflation is gradually declining but remains above target. The labor market is solid but expected to soften somewhat due to slower growth and tariff effects, with unemployment forecasted to rise modestly over the next year. Forward Guidance: The Fed’s communication emphasizes patience and data dependency, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7, where further policy decisions will be evaluated based on new economic information. Summary Aspect Current Fed Stance (April 2025) Federal Funds Rate Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed Treasury runoff to $5B/month Inflation Elevated but gradually declining Labor Market Solid but expected to soften Tariff Impact Significant uncertainty; potential stagflation risk Policy Outlook Patient, data-dependent; no immediate rate changes Next FOMC Meeting May 6-7, 2025 In essence, the Fed is maintaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance this month, balancing between controlling inflation and supporting employment amid trade-related uncertainties. It is closely monitoring economic data before making further moves, signaling readiness to adjust policy if risks to growth or inflation intensify.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
DXY Long-Term Technical Outlook: Channel Structure, Pullbacks & ## **DXY (Dollar Index) Technical Analysis – 2W Chart** ### **1. Uptrend Since 2008** The Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a **long-term uptrend** since the 2008 bottom (around 70.70). The chart shows a clear pattern of **higher highs and higher lows**, establishing a bullish market structure over the past 15+ years. --- ### **2. Ascending Channel** The price has been moving consistently within a well-defined **ascending channel**. Several reactions from the channel boundaries are visible: - **Support (lower trendline):** 2008, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2024 - **Resistance (upper trendline):** 2009, 2017, 2022 This suggests that the market is respecting the technical boundaries of the channel remarkably well. --- ### **3. Historical Pullbacks Within the Channel (13.5% – 15%)** The chart highlights major **pullbacks** from local tops, all falling within the **-12.6% to -16.9%** range, showing high consistency: | Year | Drop | % Decline | |-------------|----------|----------------| | 2009 | -14.76 | -16.47% | | 2010 | -14.97 | -16.90% | | 2017 | -15.17 | -14.61% | | 2020 | -13.65 | -13.25% | | 2022 | -14.90 | -12.98% | | 2024/2025 | -13.90 | -12.61% | This implies that **a retracement of 13–15%** from a local high is a historically "normal" correction within the ongoing uptrend. --- ### **4. EMA Analysis – 24, 120, 240** (2Y,5Y,10Y) The chart includes three Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reflecting short-, medium-, and long-term trends: - **EMA 24 (white line):** Reacts to short-term price action. Price is currently breaking below it, suggesting weakness in short-term momentum. - **EMA 120 (red line):** Reflects the mid-term trend. Price is **right at the edge**, often acting as a **support level** in bullish markets. - **EMA 240 (blue line):** Represents the long-term outlook. **Price has never stayed below this level for long** over the past 15 years, making this EMA a **critical support** for the long-term trend. --- ### **Conclusion & Potential Scenarios** 📉 **Bearish Scenario:** If DXY breaks below the **EMA 240** and the **lower channel boundary**, it could indicate a **reversal of the long-term uptrend**, which hasn’t happened since 2008. 📈 **Bullish Scenario:** If DXY holds above the **EMA 120** or bounces from the **EMA 240** and the **channel support**, we could expect a rally toward the **Fibonacci levels** (0.5 at 102.04 or 0.382 at 105.04), or even a retest of the highs around **114.78**.
TVC:DXY
by Aleksin_Aleksandar
DXY Bearish Pennant Breakdown | More Downside Ahead?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken down from a well-defined bearish pennant pattern on the 4H chart, signaling continuation of the prevailing downtrend. 🔹 Technical Setup: Pattern: Bearish Pennant Breakdown Level: Below 99.00 Target: ~94.50 based on pennant pole projection Confirmation: Clear follow-through after breakdown, low volume consolidation 🔹 Fundamentals: Weak U.S. economic data and dovish Fed expectations continue to weigh on the dollar. Rising gold and commodity prices further support DXY downside. 📌 Outlook: As long as DXY trades below 99.00 resistance, bearish momentum is likely to extend toward the 94.50 target zone. NOTE: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXYShort
by Gold_Traders_Team
DXY TO RETRACE, BUYMy yearly target for DXY has been smashed in April, not even 6 months in, lol. The move was fast and brutal, many were left out. Now I think we will see some cool off, a retracement or a range, dont hold trades as the market may range after such big move and I don't like holding a ranging market. Learn to let your profit run, stop chasing few pips. Dxy fell thousands pips and you caught only 100 pips due to day trading, it doesn't make sense. Learn to see the bigger picture My TP 1 is 99 TP 2 = 101.3 Enjoy Follow me as my trades are market order, so you'll see it on time and enter at premium
TVC:DXYLong
by UGBOR
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the 100 mark in April 2025 due to a combination of trade tensions, shifting investor sentiment, and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. Key reasons include: 1. Trade War and Tariff Impact President Donald Trump's imposition of aggressive tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese imports) and China’s retaliatory tariffs have sparked fears of a full-blown global trade war. This has unsettled financial markets, leading investors to reduce exposure to U.S. assets and the dollar. The tariffs have disrupted trade flows, increased inflationary pressures, and raised concerns about slower economic growth in the U.S., which undermines the dollar’s appeal. 2. Declining Safe-Haven Demand Traditionally, the dollar benefits as a safe-haven currency during global uncertainty. However, in 2025, investors are increasingly turning to gold, which hit record highs above $3,300and headed to 3400 as an alternative safe haven. This shift reflects doubts about the dollar’s reliability amid trade tensions and fiscal imbalances. 3. Concerns Over U.S. Economic Growth and Recession Risks Rising fears of a U.S. recession, fueled by tariff-induced economic headwinds and slowing corporate earnings, have dampened confidence in the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and signals of potential rate cuts later in 2025 have also contributed to weakening the dollar, as lower interest rates reduce the currency's yield advantage. 4. Political and Policy Uncertainty Market unease has been heightened by President Trump’s public threats to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence and future monetary policy direction. Political noise and uncertainty over trade negotiations, especially with China, have further pressured the dollar. 5. Technical and Market Sentiment Factors Technically, the DXY has broken below key support levels, including the 200-day simple moving average (~104.6) and the psychologically important 100 level, signaling bearish momentum. Summary Table of Factors Driving DXY Below 100 Factor Impact on DXY Trade War Tariffs = Reduced dollar demand, increased volatility Shift to Gold as Safe Haven= Dollar loses safe-haven status U.S. Economic Slowdown Fears= Weaker growth outlook dampens dollar strength Fed Policy Uncertainty = Rate cut expectations reduce dollar yield Political Risks = Fed independence concerns add to uncertainty Technical Breakdown = Breach of key supports fuels bearish momentum Conclusion The DXY’s fall below 100 reflects a complex mix of trade-related economic risks, diminished safe-haven demand, political uncertainty, and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Unless these issues ease—such as through trade deal progress, clearer Fed guidance, or economic stabilization—the dollar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Shavyfxhub
DXY Faces Continued Downtrend in Elliott Wave Bearish PatternThe Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a significant decline since President Trump’s tariff war intensified global trade tensions. From its peak on September 26, 2022, the Index has exhibited a clear bearish sequence. This decline aligns with an Elliott Wave structure, offering insights into potential future price action. The current bearish sequence is unfolding as a corrective zigzag pattern, labeled ((A))-((B))-((C)). Waves ((A)) and ((B)) have completed, and the Index is now in the ((C)) leg. Wave ((C)) leg subdivides into a strong five-wave impulse to the downside. Based on Fibonacci extensions, the projected target for this decline lies between 85.5 and 94.9. This corresponds to the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels from the prior structure. This zone represents a critical support area where buyers may attempt to step in. In the shorter cycle, the DXY is expected to face resistance in a 3, 7, or 11-swing corrective rally. As long as the pivot at 103.5 holds, the bearish momentum should persist, driving the index toward the Fibonacci target zone. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a break above 103.5 could invalidate the immediate bearish setup, while continued failures at resistance reinforce the downside bias. This Elliott Wave outlook suggests the DXY remains vulnerable, with the tariff war’s ripple effects continuing to pressure the dollar. Stay vigilant for price action near the 85.5 – 94.9 range for potential reversal signals.
TVC:DXY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Heading into pullback resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 100.27 1st Support: 98.32 1st Resistance: 101.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
Viper Sunday Weekly forecast call. NFP week!On Sunday's we review the markets and look at structure, trends and Candle charts to see what possibly could happen in the week ahead. With a Pullback last week, the markets look poised to have a stronger week leading into NFP. We cover US30, NAS100, Gold, Oil and Forex pairs. As well as DXY. Trade carefully, always use proper risk management and this video contains no trade calls or expected results. It is for education purposes only.
TVC:DXY
by Bowersbtc