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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Outlook with Key Levels📉 Bearish Bias on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart 🔹 Resistance Zone & Stop Loss 🚫 📍 Resistance: 104.200 - 104.432 🛑 Stop Loss: 104.432 (Above resistance zone) 🔸 Support Zone 🛠️ 📍 Intermediate Support: 103.300 (Possible bounce) 🔻 Target Point 🎯 📍 Target Price: 102.232 (Expected downside) 📊 Price Action Outlook: ✅ Bearish Scenario: Price rejected from resistance 🔽 Lower highs forming ⚡ Breakdown expected toward 102.232 🎯 ❌ Invalidation: If price breaks above 104.432, bearish setup fails 🚫 🔥 Conclusion: ⬇️ Sell Bias below 104.200 targeting 102.232 ❌ Cut losses if price closes above 104.432
TVC:DXYShort
by Jameshead007
DXY March 21 Analysis DXY March 21 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session PREMIUM and PREMIUM on the daily range NO NEWS March 20 delivery Price was in a discount. Asia small consolidation takes minor sell side rallied in London to FVG created in the dealers range and noted buy side targets. Small consolidation. NY rallies to take key buy side from March 10 taken in NY. Retraces to the daily range 50 just barley in a Premium and goes into consolidation. Note the magnet that the event horizon has been this week. As price came down to the .70 on the Monthly range price is in a consolidation whipping between the .70 and .618 with long tailed candles. This week price widen that consolidation range. March 21 delivery Logic says that price will seek the 50 and lower FVG inefficiencies to rebalance. Note what liquidity is taken and go from there. No news can be high resistance, stay sharp. Study notes Price started the week on a sell stops raid making a new low on Tuesday. And yesterday making a higher high coming into the bottom part of HTF FVG. My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price delivery
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
2
USD Gains Ground as Markets Await the FOMC and New ProjectionsThe U.S. dollar is regaining ground ahead of the much-anticipated second monetary policy decision of the year by the Federal Reserve, after having been under pressure during the first half of the week. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a 0.4% gain, positioning itself as the strongest currency among major Forex market pairs on this key trading day. Alongside the greenback’s strength, U.S. equity markets are also trading in positive territory, reflecting relative optimism ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. The federal funds rate, currently within a 4.25% to 4.50% range, is widely expected to remain unchanged, with interest rate futures assigning a 99% probability to this outcome. However, while the rate decision is largely priced in, market attention will shift toward the Fed’s new economic projections, and most importantly, to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. I personally anticipate significant adjustments in the Fed’s estimates, which could trigger notable market reactions. Specifically, I expect the Federal Reserve to lower its 2025 economic growth projections from the 2.1% forecasted last December, in response to a more challenging economic environment, where we have seen a weaker U.S. consumer and the impact of recent tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration. Additionally, inflation projections will be a key focus, especially as we have seen a derailment of long-term inflation expectations, a crucial factor in the inflation debate, which have now reached their highest level since 1993. The so-called "dot plot" will likely indicate two rate cuts projected for this year, reflecting a slightly less dovish stance compared to the three cuts currently priced in by financial markets. This discrepancy could drive volatility in both the dollar and equities if market sentiment shifts to accommodate this less accommodative outlook. The post-decision press conference will be, in my view, the most critical moment of the day. Jerome Powell will face tough questions regarding the Fed’s stance on the growing risk of an economic recession, exacerbated by uncertainty over the effectiveness of the White House’s new trade and fiscal policies. It will be crucial to hear how Powell balances an inflation-focused narrative with the surge in inflation expectations, a key factor for future monetary policy decisions. Powell is likely to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding any firm commitments on the future direction of monetary policy, aiming to retain maximum flexibility in an uncertain economic environment. Finally, it wouldn’t be surprising if the term "stagflation" takes center stage in journalists’ questions, given the current backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures combined with increasing signs of economic slowdown. In summary, while interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the Fed’s statements and projections will be critical in shaping the future direction of financial markets and the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance in this challenging economic environment.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
At 1:00 AM tomorrow, GMT +7, what will the FED say?At 1:00 AM tomorrow, GMT +7, what will the FED say? If the FED announces that they will keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the 103.5 level as a bottom, DXY will likely increase again in the next few days. However, if the FED decides to raise interest rates, XAU will plunge, and BTC will rise back to the $100,000 mark. But... regardless, after DXY's upcoming rise following the D1 cycle, there will be another drop. It's uncertain how fast DXY will move, but if it moves quickly, DXY could decline by early April, with XAU rising, and BTC likely dropping to the 66k-72k range.
TVC:DXYLong
by rainbow_sniper
3
Dollar Index - Will Rate Hikes Cause Risk Off Conditions?It’s been a risk off environment over the last few weeks and because of this, we have seen the appreciation of GBPUSD and EURUSD which was called weeks in advance. With a massive imbalance above and daily sellside liquidity taken, the question is will Dollar Index fill the daily SIBI before the rate announcements happen? If this happens, it will be a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario. Next week will be very volition due to the news events being released and this could be the catalyst for price to expand into the local SIBI outlined on the daily timeframe.
TVC:DXYLong
by LegendSince
Further Underperformance for the US Dollar Index? Down nearly 4.0% this month, the US Dollar Index demonstrates scope to navigate deeper waters on the monthly chart towards the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.72. A similar vibe is evident on the daily chart. Following a test of support-turned-resistance at 103.94, a possible bearish scenario could unfold if price breaches the lower edge of the current descending triangle pattern (103.22/104.09). If a breakout lower materialises, follow-through downside could see support at 101.92 make an entrance (set just north of the 50-month SMA).
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
DXY Will Move Higher! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 103.733. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 104.118 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DXY Bullish SetupAfter the market completed a series of five bullish motive waves, it experienced a sharp decline characterized by an ABC corrective pattern. The price retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, subsequently forming a leading diagonal pattern in wave 1. Additionally, an inverted head and shoulders pattern emerged after sweeping a key daily swing low (SSL) liquidity level. These developments suggest a potential upward movement in a five-wave motive structure. Market Minds Team (MMT)
TVC:DXYLong
by Market_Minds_SM
DXY in monthly chart (An idea for decades) Hello What I want to discuss might be a little confusing for some you or unrealistic for other ones but I myself believe in it. I do not talk about Fundamental or any logics stand behind this chart but it's just an analysis in the aspect of EW. Dollar started its rally from 2008 and what has made is definitely a motive wave that can be wave 1 or in bigger scale wave A. If we consider it as wave 1/A which has taken 5300 days to finish so we can expect a reasonable correction for its wave 2/B even it becomes a Zigzag. It means that I expect more complex pattern for wave 2/B. Next point is the structure of wave 1/A which makes me anxious because if it was wave A what would happen after its wave C. To be simpler, if it is wave A, so we are in a bearish ABC for DXY and after this correction completes it must continue its bearish trend to ZERO that is impossible. Some say that it happens when Dollar is replaced with something else but I am not sure about it. The Second scenario is that it is wave 1 bullish and after this correction (in where we are now) the biggest rally starts for Dollar. It may take a few years to be disclosed. Thanks Thanks
TVC:DXY
by AMA_FX
2
Gold Tracks Purchasing Power (updated)YES, gold does track your purchasing power over LONG PERIODS of time. It tracks the inflation ADJUSTED US Dollar more accurately than it does either the US Dollar OR Inflation. It is a better way to understand macro tides which move the price of gold. While there are periods of lower/diminishing correlation... you should really keep your eye on what has been happening now! Gold has been in a period of INCREASING, statistically significative correlation with Purchasing Power. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Well, when gold sniffs out the end of the current rally for US Dollar versus Inflation, then it will tell us on its price chart. You might want to reshare this post and maybe pin it. I will. ======== Below is why I did this post. What makes gold move? I see soo many focus too much on either inflation or the US Dollar. They are often wrong for 2 reasons: 1- Gold tracks neither per say, but inflation adjusted US Dollar (purchasing power). 2- Gold has a tendency to move 3 to 6 months ahead of the next move in purchasing power. Use charts for unbiased, objective evidence gathering. Forget headline news, stories, and narratives.
INDEX:DXY
by Badcharts
DXY Analysis – Key Market Structure Levels📌 D1 Timeframe: - The price is currently in a discount zone and has reacted to a Balanced Price Range (BPR) on the monthly timeframe . - If bullish momentum builds from this level, potential targets include: - D1 premium zone - Order block within the balanced price range - 4H order blocks as key areas of interest 📌 Monthly Timeframe Confluence: - The Balanced Price Range (BPR) aligns with ICT Stup , Fibonacci 0.705 - 0.79 retracement levels , and key liquidity areas. - If price holds above discount levels , we may see a move towards the 110.157 target zone . 🔍 Market Outlook: Short-term bullish bias as long as discount levels hold. Price action confirmation is needed before considering entries. ⚠ Risk Warning: Trading involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly. ✅ If you find this analysis useful, don’t forget to subscribe and hit the "Boost" button to support the page!
TVC:DXYLong
by Rahmatullayev_Halilulloh
DXY Potential Reversal: Eyeing a Break Above 104.20Market Structure & Trendline Break The US Dollar Index (DXY) recently broke out of its descending trendline on the 15-minute chart. This signals a potential shift from the prior downtrend into a short-term bullish phase. After bouncing from the key support around 103.40–103.50, price is now hovering near 104.00. Key Support & Resistance Levels Support Zones: 103.40–103.50: Recent swing low and demand area. If price falls below this zone, it would weaken the bullish case and could lead to a retest of the 103.00 area. 102.80–103.00: Major support if the 103.40 zone fails. Resistance Zones: 104.20–104.30: Minor resistance just above the current market price. 104.60–104.80: Next hurdle if DXY gains momentum. A clear break above 104.80 could open the path toward 105.00 and beyond. Trading Plan Bullish Scenario Entry: Consider longs on a confirmed break or retest of 104.00–104.20. Targets: First target around 104.60 Second target around 105.00 Stop Loss: Below 103.40, to invalidate the bullish structure. Bearish Scenario If price fails to break 104.20 and moves back under 103.40, watch for a retest from below to consider short positions. Downside targets could be 103.00 or even 102.80 if the selling accelerates. Overall Bias The short-term momentum has shifted bullish with the trendline break and higher lows forming. Keep an eye on major resistance levels around 104.20 and 104.60 to see if DXY can sustain its upward move. A failure to hold above 103.40 would negate the bullish setup. Always remember to manage your risk appropriately. Use stop losses, size your trades responsibly, and adjust targets based on market conditions.
TVC:DXYLong
by ayushpanchal92