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Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD RelationshipHello traders, Here’s an analysis that can be useful for both short-term and swing trades on EURUSD and DXY. Our trading team’s calculations are as follows: Analysis on the DXY – EURUSD Relationship Currently, DXY is at 98.200. Historical statistical data indicate that if DXY declines toward 96.300, there is approximately a **1.55% probability of an upward move** in EURUSD. Based on this scenario: Current EURUSD level: 1.16500 Projected target level:1.1830 While the correlation data show a strong inverse relationship, it’s important to note that periodic deviations can occur in the market. Therefore, this analysis should be considered a statistical projection only, not a guaranteed outcome.
TVC:DXYShort
by Nurlan_PT
1
DXY 4Hour TF - August 3rd,2025🟦 DXY 4H Analysis Neutral idea 📅 August 3, 2025 🔹 Top-Down Trend Bias: • Monthly – Bearish • Weekly – Bearish • Daily – Bearish • 4H – Bullish The dollar index is in a larger bearish cycle but just bounced from near-term resistance around 100.250. While the 4H shows temporary strength, we’re trading into major resistance and we may see it short lived. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch • Support: 98.00 • Resistance Zones: 99.25 and 100.25 • 61.8% Fib: 98.57 Price is currently testing structure after rejecting from the 100.25 resistance zone. This area remains a strong ceiling unless the higher timeframe structure shifts. ✅ Scenario A: Bearish Continuation (Blue Path) 1. Bearish Structure confirmation below the current zone 2.If bearish rejection confirms, expect price to continue toward 98.00, possibly 97.50 3.Clean confluence with the higher timeframe trend ⚠️ Scenario B: Bullish Extension (Orange Path) 1.If price breaks and holds above 99.25, we may see a continuation toward 100.25 2.Short-term bullish strength, but against HTF bias 3.Must treat as a counter-trend idea unless confirmed with HTF structure shift 🧠 Final Notes • 98.50 is the key decision zone, watch reaction closely • Trend remains bearish on all major timeframes • Don’t force the long, lean bearish unless structure proves otherwise
TVC:DXY
by ForexLeague
DXYThe DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major world currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). It is a weighted index, with the euro having the largest share, making movements in EUR/USD especially influential on the index. The DXY was created in 1973 by the US Federal Reserve to provide a clear benchmark for the dollar’s international strength after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Since its inception, the DXY has served as a vital gauge of the dollar’s performance in global trade and financial markets. Historically, it reached its all-time high near 164.72 in 1985, during a period of aggressive US interest rate hikes and a strong economic expansion. Conversely, it hit its all-time low around 70.70 in 2008, at the peak of the global financial crisis, when confidence in the US economy sharply declined. The index typically rises when investors seek safety in the US dollar, especially during global risk-off events or when US interest rates are relatively high. It also tends to strengthen during periods of US economic growth, reduced liquidity, or tightening by the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the DXY weakens when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, inflation rises, or investor sentiment shifts toward riskier assets and other global currencies. In the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, the DXY saw sharp movements. It rallied strongly in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, reaching levels above 114. This was followed by a pullback as inflation cooled and expectations of rate cuts emerged in 2023 and 2024. As of August 2025, the DXY stands at approximately 93.4, reflecting a weaker dollar compared to its recent highs, influenced by a more dovish Federal Reserve, growing US debt concerns, and rising investor interest in alternative assets such as gold and other currencies. The DXY remains a key tool for traders, economists, and policymakers to assess the dollar’s position in the global economy. Its movements affect everything from commodity prices and trade balances to emerging market capital flows and inflation pressures worldwide.
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by HavalMamar
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis:The DXY has recently exited a bearish wave, retested support levels, and began a recovery — currently trading near 100.09, a key resistance area. 🔹 If price breaks and holds above 100.09, the upward move may continue toward the 102.00 zone. 🔹 However, if the index rejects this level and reverses, a retest of 98.80 could follow. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and monitor the markets before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXY
by Fadi_radar
Fundamentals Support Dollar’s Potential Trend ReversalThe dollar appears to be reversing its direction on the 4-hour timeframe. The trendline has been broken and retested twice, but the dollar has held above it, signaling a potential shift in momentum. Despite intense pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve, the data is likely to prevent the Fed from cutting rates at the upcoming meeting and possibly at the one after that. A potential rate cut in September will largely depend on incoming inflation and labor market data. The inflation impact of tariffs became more visible in the latest CPI report, but the effect is still relatively modest. This aligns with our theory that tariff-driven inflation will build gradually and persist over a longer period, rather than cause an immediate spike. Meanwhile, the labor market has not shown clear signs of rapid weakening, so there is no strong case for a rate cut from that side either. The Financial Conditions Index also indicates that monetary policy remains on the accommodative side. Bloomberg financial conditions index is at highest level since March. As markets increasingly recognize that no rate cuts are likely in the near term, and with the August 1 tariff deadline approaching amid potential rising risks of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, the dollar may gain further support. The U.S.–EU bond market spread also does not favor a stronger euro at the moment, adding to the dollar's upside potential. In the short term, 98.10 and 98.53 are immediate support and resistance levels. If the dollar breaks above 98.53 again, upward momentum may strengthen and open the path toward the 100 level.
TVC:DXYLong
by ftdsystem
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Pro Analysis | 1H Chart |1. Strong Bullish Momentum DXY broke out sharply above the 99.41 resistance, showing clear strength from bulls with minimal pullbacks during the rally. 2. Short-Term Rejection at Supply Price was rejected from the 99.978 zone — a key supply area. This indicates the presence of active sellers near the psychological 100 level. 3. Retesting Breakout Structure Currently hovering just above 99.669, the DXY is retesting the previous breakout level. This could act as short-term support if bullish momentum resumes. 4. Next Key Zones Resistance: 99.978 → 100.534 Support: 99.411 → 98.92 Break below 99.411 may invalidate the breakout. 5. Outlook Bias remains bullish above 99.41. However, failure to reclaim 99.978 soon may signal temporary exhaustion or consolidation before next leg up.
TVC:DXY
by TheWallstreetCapital
DOLLAR INDEX U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury Yield Dollar Index (DXY) — will reclaim 103-102 level if it crosses 100 mark currently is at 98.34 and faces immediate supply roof ,a make or break situation awaits dollar buyers . Over the past month, the Dollar Index has gained about 2%, although it is still down over 5% compared to a year ago. The recent uptick follows a period of volatility and selling, with investors recalibrating expectations after the resolution of trade risk premiums and recent U.S.–EU trade deals. US 10-Year Treasury Yield keep rising after its drop from 4.193% in early july to 4.5% on 17th Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is currently about 4.42% , modestly higher than last week and unchanged from the previous session. Current levels reflect ongoing uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve policy moves, cautious optimism regarding U.S. economic strength, and some abatement of safe-haven flows after recent global trade developments. Relationship & Market Synopsis DXY and the 10-year yield typically have a positive correlation: When Treasury yields rise, the dollar often follows, as higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Conversely, falling yields can weigh on the dollar. However, in 2025, there have been periods of divergence due to external shocks and policy uncertainty. Current setup: Both DXY and the 10Y yield are rising modestly, signaling a shift to a more constructive tone for the U.S. dollar as risk sentiment stabilizes and investors scale back some safe-haven trades. Recent U.S. economic resilience and fading tariff fears have reduced the need for defensive flows, supporting both yields and the dollar. Forward outlook: Market consensus expects limited further upside for Treasury yields unless there are strong surprises in U.S. data or Federal Reserve communication. The DXY is projected to stabilize near current levels or drift higher on persistent U.S. economic momentum. Summary: Both the Dollar Index and US 10-year Treasury yield are modestly higher as of July 29, 2025. Their positive price action reflects improving US growth prospects, reduced global risk premiums, and recalibrated market expectations on Fed policy. While their relationship is generally positive, periods of divergence have occurred in 2025 due to trade, policy, and economic shocks. Currently, both are showing moderate gains as investor sentiment stabilize
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 4 Hour Chart4-hour chart from CAPITALCOM displays the recent performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), showing a current value of 98.190 with a slight decline of 0.009 (-0.01%). The chart highlights key price levels, including a recent sell signal at 98.189 and a buy signal at 98.243, with a resistance zone marked between 98.195 and 98.479. The index has experienced fluctuations, with notable drops and recoveries, and is currently trending near the 98.190 level as of July 29, 2025.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Alee_Gold_Trader
Technical Analysis | DXY | U.S. Dollar Index4-Hour Timeframe🔍 Technical Analysis | DXY | U.S. Dollar Index 4-Hour Timeframe After hitting a strong supply zone marked in blue at the top of the chart, the price faced selling pressure and entered a bearish phase. Currently, the price is trading within a decision zone between buyers and sellers, where both bullish and bearish scenarios are possible. 🔼 Bullish Scenario: If the price finds support at the mid-level support zone marked in green, and signs of a bullish reversal appear—such as proper candlestick formation or a renewed breakout of minor resistances (creating higher highs)—then the index is expected to move toward higher resistance levels. 🔽 Bearish Scenario: Considering the market structure, if the mid-level support is lost and the price settles below this zone, the downtrend may accelerate. The dollar index could then move toward the lower support zone, marked in blue, which previously acted as a strong barrier and reversal area. This level may again serve as a key point to watch for market reactions. ✅ Conclusion The U.S. Dollar Index is currently in a corrective phase, oscillating within a sensitive range. The price reaction to the current support zone will likely determine the next directional move. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for a confirmed breakout or bounce from this area before entering any trades.
TVC:DXY
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
THE DOLLAR INDEX HAS FINALLY BROKEN THE DOWNWARD TRENDLINETVC:DXY (Dollar Index) has been in massive downward trend from the beginning of the year 2025 which was very bad for the Dollar. as from the previous weeks, we have been seeing the dollar index making some significant moves is very interesting as this will cause pairs like USDJPY to start pumping as well, because USDJPY is correlates positively with DXY why pairs like EURUSD,GBPUSD AND GOLD will be dropping. As a matter of fact let's see close the daily candle above the current.resistance level before anticipating for any massive move. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE DO YOUR RESEARCH. FOLLOW ME FOR MORE UPDATES.
TVC:DXYLong
by Jahson23
USD to continue down?: Weekly Review/ fundamental analysis There was a lot of information to take in during the week starting Monday 28 July. A US / EUR trade deal announcement, US GDP, MICROSOFT earnings all contributed to positive market sentiment as the S&P continued to push all time highs. But in a reminder that anything can happen, a combination of NFP, AMAZON earnings and fresh TARIFF UNREST, ensured the week ended on a sour note. The week got off to a good start with the US / EUR announcement. Although the news weakened the EUR as it appeared the US got the better end of the deal. And all of last weeks EUR positivity was unwound. Despite the overall positive market mood at the beginning of the week, the currencies once again didn't quite correlate with the environment, as the USD and JPY both started the week particularly strong. Which could have been put down to 'EUR liquidity', meaning the USD and JPY benefited most from the weakness of the EUR. But, more likely, I suspected it was 'positioning' ahead of the important central bank interest rate meetings. The meetings didn't disappoint, starting with the FOMC. The overall message was a continued reluctance to immediately cut interest rates. In a thinly veiled dig at the president, the line, "looking through inflation by not HIKING rates" sent the USD soaring as the probability of a September cut dropped to 40%. A few hours later it was the BOJ'S turn. Although acknowledging inflation, a reluctance to immediately HIKE rates disappointed JPY bulls. And when added to positive MICROSOFT earnings, by Thursday's European session we had a peak JPY short opportunity. But, alas, it wasn't long before disappointing Amazon earnings and the president stirring the tariff pot rocked the boat. And when Friday's NFP data 'surprised to the downside', the rot set in, the S&P dropped and in particular, sentiment for the USD crumbled. And the probability of a September rate cut significantly rose back up to 90%. It's difficult to trade NFP at the best of times, but particularly when ISM data shortly follows. But I wouldn't argue with anyone who fancied a USD short on Friday. I begin the new week with an open mind. I do think the S&P has a good chance of recovering (it's only natural for traders to use bad news as an excuse to take profits from all time highs). Sentiment for the USD could remain subdued, I suspect the US 10year will be a prominent part of the narrative. On a personal note, outside of trading, drunk idiots smashing a bakery window and a member of staff leaving at short notice kept me busy. But I did manage one trade. A post BOJ 'short JPY'. It was coin toss between a post FOMC 'USD long' or a standard 'risk on AUD long'. I plumbed for the AUD. Ultimately, it wouldn't have mattered and the trade it profit. Please feel free to offer thoughts questions, maybe you've spotted something I've not mentioned. Results: Trade 1: AUD JPY +1.3 Total = +1.3%
TVC:DXYShort
by johnelfedforexblog