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How Will a Strong Dollar Impact Emerging Forex Pairs?Persistent US dollar strength is poised to pose significant challenges for emerging market (EM) bonds and forex. As the greenback continues its upward trajectory, investors are advised to exercise caution and consider potential risks. Why a Strong Dollar Matters for Emerging Markets A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging market countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. They need to exchange their local currency for US dollars to make payments. When the dollar appreciates, it requires more of their local currency to acquire the necessary amount of dollars. Furthermore, a strong dollar can deter foreign investment in emerging markets. Investors may prefer to invest in US assets, which are perceived as safer and more stable. This can lead to capital flight from emerging markets, putting pressure on their currencies and economies. Potential Risks for Emerging Market Bonds and Forex Investors in emerging market bonds should be aware of the following risks: 1. Currency Risk: A weaker local currency can erode the value of bond investments. As the dollar strengthens, emerging market currencies may depreciate, reducing the value of bond holdings when converted back to the investor's home currency. 2. Interest Rate Risk: Rising interest rates in the US can lead to higher borrowing costs for emerging market countries. This can increase their debt burden and make it more difficult to service their debt obligations. 3. Default Risk: In extreme cases, a strong dollar and rising interest rates can push emerging market countries to the brink of default. This can result in significant losses for bondholders. How to Mitigate Risks While the risks associated with emerging market bonds are significant, investors can take steps to mitigate them: 1. Diversification: Diversifying investments across different emerging markets can help reduce exposure to specific country risks. 2. Currency Hedging: Investors can use currency hedging strategies to protect themselves from currency fluctuations. 3. Credit Rating Analysis: Carefully analyzing the creditworthiness of issuers can help identify bonds with lower default risk. 4. Consult with Financial Advisors: Seeking advice from experienced financial advisors can provide valuable insights and help develop a suitable investment strategy. Conclusion The persistent strength of the US dollar poses a significant threat to emerging market bonds. Investors should be mindful of the risks associated with these investments and take appropriate measures to protect their portfolios. By diversifying, hedging, and conducting thorough due diligence, investors can navigate the challenges posed by a strong dollar and potentially reap the rewards of emerging market growth. It is important to note that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.2
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal Nov 24 Price continued it's bullish run to key buy side stop from Nov 2022 wicking through a weekly SIBI to rebalance. Price broke 50% level on the weekly changing market structure to a Premium. Parent bias is bullish. Long term idea I suspect that we could see Price continue to rebalance the SIBI. Price closed on the 50% level. I could see Price come down to take the equal lows at the .618 for Mondays idea. Price could seek the 50% level of 107.099 for the low of the week. I also suspect that we could see a high resistance week of Price action this week.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
2
Dxy longThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has rolled through markets to a fresh two-year high in a volatile Friday. The US Dollar gets additional inflow from flights into safe-havens amid escalating risks in the Russia-Ukraine war. The US Dollar Index popped above 108.00 and fades in the aftermath back to 107.50. The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. These currencies are the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). The index started in 1973 -with the absolution of Bretton Woods- with a base of 100.000, and values since then are relative to this base. For example, if the current reading says 99.800, this means that the dollar has fallen 0.2% since the start of the index (99.800 - 100.000).
TVC:DXYLong
by KingForex078
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25-28th: USD INDEX Is Still Bullish!November 25 -28th The DXY is still showing strength, but can pull back at any time. After breaching a Swing High, a pullback is naturally expected. But until it gives a bearish BOS, I am still buying the USD. Don't be too quick to start selling! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money
1
DXY in monthly chart (An idea for decades) Hello What I want to discuss might be a little confusing for some you or unrealistic for other ones but I myself believe in it. I do not talk about Fundamental or any logics stand behind this chart but it's just an analysis in the aspect of EW. Dollar started its rally from 2008 and what has made is definitely a motive wave that can be wave 1 or in bigger scale wave A. If we consider it as wave 1/A which has taken 5300 days to finish so we can expect a reasonable correction for its wave 2/B even it becomes a Zigzag. It means that I expect more complex pattern for wave 2/B. Next point is the structure of wave 1/A which makes me anxious because if it was wave A what would happen after its wave C. To be simpler, if it is wave A, so we are in a bearish ABC for DXY and after this correction completes it must continue its bearish trend to ZERO that is impossible. Some say that it happens when Dollar is replaced with something else but I am not sure about it. The Second scenario is that it is wave 1 bullish and after this correction (in where we are now) the biggest rally starts for Dollar. It may take a few years to be disclosed. Thanks Thanks
TVC:DXY
by AMA_FX
2
A quick high-low TF analysis of USDX.Next week:correction starts HTF to LTF high/low analysis of the dollar index the USDX. It was interesting to see the gold price rally as the USD$ continued to breakout this week, the dollar's prior weeks volume was massive but its petered during Friday (yesterday) after failing to close higher than the last known candle at this price level 108.33 on a day back in November 2022. Furthermore, the 108 level got rejected and the USDX fell back to close just under the 50% level of the daily candle which is still a bit bearish 107.47. See below my series of charts why I see the USD$ starting to recede next week, I would say commencing Monday. Now to the 4HR chart where the bears have already moved in commencing Friday (yesterday) Further bearish charting on the 30m 10M chart below, more bearish clues. 3M Chart. Is this getting boring? 1M TF a bears head n shoulders is for viewing & price has already retested and moving lower. and finally a 10sec chart for giggles.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
1
What's Next for the Dollar Index? Will It Hold Above 107?Detailed Breakdown of DXY Chart 1️⃣ Context & Market Narrative The chart suggests a pivotal moment with a potential reversal or continuation of the current trend. 108.071 acts as a significant level, where price is showing signs of exhaustion. 106.77 emerges as a critical support zone, with strong buying activity in this area. 2️⃣ Key Observations The price has moved within a defined range, testing both resistance and support levels. There are clear signs of manipulation near 107.348, with possible stop-loss grabs targeting retail traders. The region around 106.77 indicates substantial market activity, making it a key zone to monitor. 3️⃣ Support & Resistance Levels Support Zones: 106.77: A strong area where buying activity has been observed. 106.113: A deeper support level that aligns with possible retracement targets. Resistance Zones: 107.348: A key resistance that needs to be broken for further upward movement. 108.071: A significant high, acting as a current barrier for price continuation. 4️⃣ Potential Scenarios Bullish Case: If price sustains above 106.77 and breaks through 107.348, it could continue upward toward 108.5–109.0. Bearish Case: A break below 106.77 would indicate further downside, targeting 106.113 and possibly lower. 5️⃣ Liquidity Analysis Above Current Price: Liquidity is clustered around 108.071, indicating possible upward spikes before a reversal. Below Current Price: Significant liquidity resides near 106.33, making it a possible target if the market moves downward. 6️⃣ Key Levels to Watch Upside Targets: 107.348: First resistance level to watch for a breakout. 108.071: A major level where price could reverse or consolidate. Downside Targets: 106.77: Immediate support level to monitor for buying interest. 106.113: Next key level if the price fails to hold above 106.77. Final Notes The current chart suggests that price is at a crucial juncture. Monitoring how it reacts at 106.77 and 107.348 will provide clearer signals about the next direction. Be cautious of potential traps around these zones and confirm breakouts before entering trades. Let me know if you'd like additional refinements or further clarifications!
TVC:DXY
by spaceangel
1