IBM trade ideas
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 3 IBMHere is the culmination of my last 4 months of technical analysis of the stock market. I looked at important growth stocks of the past and where they are today. From that analysis, I applied the lessons learned to todays market.
1) Growth stocks break out of the mean channel of wave 1 to finish wave 3 and 5. Average stocks stay in the mean channel.
2) The following correction will take them back to the project mean of wave 1, maybe even below. The more they break above the mean the more they drop during the correction.
3) Head and Shoulders pattern usually describes motive waves 4-5 and the following corrective ABC wave.
After a major correction several things can be learned
1) Some companies never really recover, assume they just had high prices because every company did (thing tech bubble)
2) Some companies recover but never become growth stocks again and grow but stay along a mean growth
3) Some companies are able to reinvent themselves and become growth stocks again (MICROSOFT)
I can't say I did everything correctly. I took my best shot at it and at the minimum gives a solid idea what could be to come for stocks in 2020 and beyond.
I broke this down in several idea posts.
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 1 GE
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 2 AT&T
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 3 IBM
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 4 MICROSOFT
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 5 GOOGLE
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 6 AMAZON
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 7 S&P 500
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 8 NASDAQ
Hope this helps and good luck.
IBM daily analysisHi friends
the daily chart of this action shows that it will experience a bearish trend in the coming days but with the vigilance of the change towards the opposite direction
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IBM LONG This trade analysis based on two levels, the support trade line and the resistance trade line (Orange color arrow).
When the stock NYSE:IBM reach the 1st Fibonacci 127.2% it follow the Fibonacci retrace down to 61% - 50% and reach the Support trade line. At this moment, around 121$, its the time to take a profit at the 2nd Fibonacci 127% level. As well as for the 3rd ..... (144$)
When you look the MACD indicator it's will be the good time to buy the stock at low level
Mulitple TimeFrame Analysis IBM Possible Swing Sell
Monthly
- a strong downtrend since April 2013
-price has made and consistently respected the parallel channel
-there was a huge move to the downside the previous 2 months, and price has rallied the month of april
-current price is respecting the 50 fib level with 9 days left in the month (could possibly end up closing at the 38 fib level
Weekly
-the previous week ended in an indecision candle after a decent push to the upside (i'll take that as a bearish candle, signaling price exhaustion)
-im expecting price to fall to the demand zone and form a double bottom (i'll look to enter a buy there, MAYBE, we'll have to see)
- if a double bottom does form, half of an inverted head and shoulders pattern would be complete)
Daily
- a double top formed
- price barely closed above the previous day high with a long wick above showing some bearish pressure.